This is the 322nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There was no selection posted on Betting League yesterday, which, given the way the results panned-out, was probably not the way to go.
At Bangor, old “friend” ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES won a hurdle at 25/1, making-all. Regular readers will know that “Shambo” (as he’s called at the stable) was on my list of horses to follow last jumps season, yet it was only after 4 pretty-awful runs that he won at 13/2 at Plumpton in March. He’s run another 4 times since, again showing nothing much, and has now popped-in at 25/1. Sometimes, when you see a glimmer of ability, you have to stick with it. Had I remained ‘faithful’, then I’d now be showing 23.50pts profit to a 1pt level-stake on Absolute Shambles.
And at Goodwood, the Totesport Mile went to BOOM AND BUST. I noted him when he won a class 4 handicap at Newbury in May over a mile in a very good time. I thought he’d defy a 6lb uplift for that, and he did winning NTO off OR86. Going for a ‘Listed’ race at Windsor was probably a step too far LTO, and dropped back to handicaps today he was never really a 25/1 chance given his style of running and rate of improvement this season. But I never had a penny on him as I’d been scared-off by the fav Green Destiny who (as it happened) never got a look-in and ran in much the same way as he did at Royal Ascot. A run best ignored, he’ll bounce back.
At Thirsk. I did write yesterday that John Dunlop was making a very long journey there with MISS TOPSY TURVY for the 4:05, and that filly duly won at 9/4. It just goes to show, I may be posting selections on Betting League but there’s still value in reading my blog. In the next race on the Thirsk card, it looked like JARROW was undone by his poor draw.
You can always be sure that if I’m posting a selection on Betting League then I believe the chance it has is a “value” chance, that its the odds do not reflect its potential to win. I am not a person who bet’s on a 25/1 runner that I think should by 10/1 but has 6 other rivals with better chances in the race. Any that I select, I consider to hold a winning chance and therefore should be one of the 1st-3 in the market and should be no longer odds than 5/1. From today, to view my selections on Betting League, new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, as I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and potentially wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection up.
There is some good racing today, and at Doncaster I reckon the fav Bourne should not be troubled in taking the 3:55, but odds as I write are 5/2 and I reckon he’s more like a 7/2 chance. At Goodwood, I’d love to name the winner of the Stewards Cup, but I find these cavalry charge sprints a complete lottery and reckon you could run the race a dozen times and have a dozen winners. That said, the blog “sprinterstogo” (see adjacent link) has done an analysis and has come up with a shortlist – take a look. There are also good meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk, and I reckon to find value I’m going to have to look there.
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