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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Friday, 8 July 2011

Trainers "only-runner-of-the-day" pinpoints winners

This is the 309th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for yesterday, and judging by my own personal performance at Newmarket, it was probably a good thing. I had losing wagers on CENSUS (2nd) in the opener, then on ROMAN SOLDIER (2nd) in the 2yo July Stakes, and finally I was on LUJEANIE (3rd) in the last race on the card.

I should have paid more attention to my own advice given on this blog and on twitter, and followed the trainers who were sending solitary runners to far-flung tracks as – right from the opening race at Warwick – they were winning.

To Warwick, Jeremy Noseda sent just 1 horse RED ALPHA and it won at 9/2 and, just for good measure, Mick Channon’s only runner there ROYAL MAJESTIC was 2nd at 4/1 – the Exacta paying £21.60. Ruth Carr had her only runner of the day at Warwick, and ORPSIE BOY won at 3/1 followed home by Andrew Haynes only runner of the day COLLECT ART, the Exacta paying £9.10.

At Folkestone, Sir Henry Cecil’s only runner there CELESTYNA won the opening race at 10/1 (RP B/F was 7/2). Later, John Berry’s only runner of the day KADOUCHSKI won at 5/2 (his only runner today is BATGIRL which is the best horse in his small stable). Then Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner of the day FIRE FIGHTER won at 8/13. Finally, in the last race on the card, Jeremy Gask’s runner SWEET SECRET (named on the blog yesterday) was 2nd beaten just a head at 11/1 by the only runner of the day sent out by Gerard Butler, FULL BLOOM at 9/1. That Exacta was £57.90.

For major meetings like Newmarket’s “July” meeting, following trainers-in-form etc does not work so well as the competition for the races is greater but, even so, David Brown’s only runner of the day FREDERICK ENGELS won at 7/4. But the last race on the card went to James Hartnett’s only runner of the day MURURA at 12/1, followed home by Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day WHOZTHECAT at 12/1 and in 3rd was Dean Ivory’s only runner of the day LUJEANIE at 13/2. What a tricast, £1.027.61.

At Doncaster, the opening race went to Chris Grant’s only runner of the day SENDALI at 5/1. Then Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Doncaster AL KHAN won 16/1 (RP B/F was 4/1). Next up, Des Donovan’s only runner of the day MY OWN WAY HOME won at 7/1. Then Luca Cumani’s only runner at Doncaster SUBMISSION won at 4/6 (was Fallon’s only ride there, he flew up from Newmarket). James Given only had one runner yesterday, and that won the 8:45, ROYAL TROOPER winning at 9/1, with John Gosden’s only runner at Doncaster SENSE OF PRIDE in 2nd, the Exacta paying £32.60.

Epsom was no different. The opening race went to Gay Kelleways only runner of the day HAWAANA at 4/1. The next on the card went to John Best’s only runner of the day BAYLEYF at 7/4. The 3rd race went to Stuart Kittow’s only runner of the day DANCING STORM at 7/2. Later on, Steve Golling’s only runner of the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR won at “evens”.

On these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.

Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

1 comment:

  1. Dave McAuley (Formbet) asked me via Twitter how many trainers had a single runner yesterday, and (if I counted correctly) it was 84.
    Realistically, you cannot follow them all on one day, but Ruth Carr's ORPSIE BOY (3/1); John Berry’s KADOUCHSKI (5/2); Gerard Butler's FULL BLOOM (9/1); James Hartnett’s MURURA (12/1); Chris Grant’s SENDALI (5/1); Des Donovan’s MY OWN WAY HOME (7/1); James Given's ROYAL TROOPER (9/1); Gay Kelleway's HAWAANA (4/1); Stuart Kittow’s DANCING STORM (7/2), plus a handful of short-priced other winners would have pulled-in nearly 60pts - so, you need only filter out a fair chunk of the more obvious losers to be within spitting-distance of making a profit.
    Hey - if finding winners was easy, we'd all be doing it!

    ReplyDelete