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from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
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Thursday, 7 July 2011
Feast or famine?
No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?
James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.
There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.
The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.
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