The 351st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday.
There is a good meeting on the flat at Newmarket today with a couple of Group 1 races for 2yo’s and the historic “Cesarewitch” handicap run over 2m2f. I have never been a big fan of the Cesarewitch, so I’m not even going to contemplate making a selection in this race of 34 runners. I am also opposed to the running of the Group 1 races, the Middle Park Stakes over 6f and the Dewhurst over 7f, on the same day. These races should be split and run on separate days with perhaps 14-days between them. One race will, over time, suffer – and it will most likely be the Middle Park Stakes.
There is a meeting on the flat at York, but this is another I will pass over.
So, I will concentrate on the two “jumps” meetings at Hexham and Chepstow. At Hexham, I was going to go for QUITE THE MAN in the opener as he ran a cracker of a race on his chase debut. However, there is no value in his current odds of 6/5, in fact I’d rather have a wager on L’Eldorado at 3/1 as there was little to split these two over hurdles when they met. There is an interesting h’cap chase at 3:15 over 2m4f &110yds and I like it as the markets look weak. Present To You has not looked anywhere near as good a chaser as hurdler, and this could be his last chance. Beneficial Reform makes his chase debut under rules, and he has not shown much over hurdles to warrant special merit. As such, with the going in his favour, I can see STAGECOACH AMBER making all here and taking the race at 4/1 (He was 13/2 as I wrote this earlier, but now Beneficial Reform is a non-runner).
Chepstow has a cracking novice chase at 4:10 even if it has only 4 runners. CUE CARD makes his much-awaited chase debut, however SILVINIACO CONTI was rated a better hurdler and comes into this the 5/4 2nd-fav. Personally, I would be on SILVINIACO CONTI as Paul Nicholls always has his novice chasers primed to do the business and I think the 3rd-fav MICHAEL FLIPS will follow him home as he has already proven he can jumps a fence in Oct 2010, and this 2m4f trip will suit him.
The next on the card, a h’cap hurdle, sees another Nicholls horse Domtaline as fav, but I think this horse still has a lot to prove and cannot be seen as value at current odds of 11/10. Given his “potential” this race is a no-bet one for me, unless you want to take on the fav. The 2nd-fav Jubail looks like he prefers going right-handed to left-handed so he’s not the one. MR HARMOOSH was unlucky not to win LTO and is bang-in-form for Sheena West, and he is the one I’d be on.
The 3-mile h’cap chase at 5:50 is the highlight of the Chepstow meeting. Emma Lavelle has won this race twice in the past 3 years so Ouzbeck, for her, must be respected. However, I reckon he wants further than 3-mile these days. I don’t think Templer can win off a rating higher than OR128, so he’s not for me. Born Again and Swincombe Rock both have to prove to me that they can stay this trip in this sort of company. Bellflower Boy will almost certainly need this run. I wagered on LE BEAU BAI several times last season and he will be finishing strongly but almost certainly too late. I think REVE DE SIVOLA is better than his OR142 and he will prove hard to beat even with top-weight. FIVE DREAM from Paul Nicholls stable and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle ran very well fresh this time last season off OR132 when 2nd at Market Rasen beating a race-fit field of proven performers. He comes into this on OR128 and the trip and going should suit him. Personally, I would want more than 7/1.
Selections:
Hexham 3:15, STAGECOACH AMBER, 1pt win @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes
Chepstow 5:50, REVE De SIVOLA, 1pt win @ 7/2 available generally
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Showing posts with label Newmarket. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Newmarket. Show all posts
Saturday, 8 October 2011
Friday, 23 September 2011
There's value to be had (if you can find it!)
The 341st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For me, this time of the year (post St Leger and pre Arc de Triomphe) is a period when I wager very sparingly on the ‘flat’. This week’s meetings have not presented me with a wagering opportunity that I have felt confident of sharing with readers of the blog and subscribers of my selections on Betting League (where you can find my advices).
As such, I’ve spent a fair amount of time on form-study of recent meetings over the ‘jumps’. This can be very productive as spotting horses that are not just fit, but well in advance of other horses, means that even tho’ they may start fav for their next outing the market still undervalues their position.
The meeting on Saturday at Haydock looks like one I’d normally avoid. The class 2, 5-furlong h’cap at 3:20 is a race I wouldn’t spend any time on but for the presence of Addictive Dream. Firstly, he’s not a selection as, even with Kieren Fallon in the saddle, he needs 6-furlongs. What I can’t work out is why the horse has only a single win to his name on turf. But, as he’s 2nd-fav, that means there is a hint of value amongst the others and the search for the winner must start with the fav CHEVETON. This horse won this race last year after winning at Ayr the previous week and he’s attempting the same again and has the going in his favour. Ladbrokes may rue offering him at odds of 6/1. I hope the 16 in it all go to post as, if they do, you may want to take a look at a rank outsider who has slipped 12lb in the ratings from this time last year, has done nearly all his winning on ground with “give” and yet has hardly ever run on it in the past two seasons – JUDGE AND JURY at 28/1 (with Boylesports, and 25/1 generally). He is in good form, but has just been running on going quicker than he likes. He could lead all the way, and is probably worth a “place-only” wager on the exchanges with a small win wager.
I can’t see anything at Chester of interest. At Ripon, a recent selection of mine (that was beaten) runs again in Fastnet Storm, who has a much better draw (4) this time. He could run a very prominent race at decent odds.
At Newmarket, the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA who has won this race for the past 2 years, as she is better than these. The only doubt is the going (good-to-firm) and that brings TIMEPIECE into play. The big race of the day is the Cambridgeshire and with 35 runners going to post, this is a race that you play with gut feeling. Horses with experience of these sort of races usually come good again, and RIGGINS who was 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup in 2010 off OR100 comes into this on OR98 having been targeted at this race all season. He’s drawn in the middle at 22, and that’s where you want to be. He may be worth an eachway play at 28/1 with Skybet who are paying to 6-places.
There is a cracking ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen, and that’s where I’ll be having a wager tomorrow as I think I’ve found me a bit of value. You’ll have to go to the Betting League website to find out what I’m on (had an 8/1 winner from 2 selections last Saturday – SP was 5/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
For me, this time of the year (post St Leger and pre Arc de Triomphe) is a period when I wager very sparingly on the ‘flat’. This week’s meetings have not presented me with a wagering opportunity that I have felt confident of sharing with readers of the blog and subscribers of my selections on Betting League (where you can find my advices).
As such, I’ve spent a fair amount of time on form-study of recent meetings over the ‘jumps’. This can be very productive as spotting horses that are not just fit, but well in advance of other horses, means that even tho’ they may start fav for their next outing the market still undervalues their position.
The meeting on Saturday at Haydock looks like one I’d normally avoid. The class 2, 5-furlong h’cap at 3:20 is a race I wouldn’t spend any time on but for the presence of Addictive Dream. Firstly, he’s not a selection as, even with Kieren Fallon in the saddle, he needs 6-furlongs. What I can’t work out is why the horse has only a single win to his name on turf. But, as he’s 2nd-fav, that means there is a hint of value amongst the others and the search for the winner must start with the fav CHEVETON. This horse won this race last year after winning at Ayr the previous week and he’s attempting the same again and has the going in his favour. Ladbrokes may rue offering him at odds of 6/1. I hope the 16 in it all go to post as, if they do, you may want to take a look at a rank outsider who has slipped 12lb in the ratings from this time last year, has done nearly all his winning on ground with “give” and yet has hardly ever run on it in the past two seasons – JUDGE AND JURY at 28/1 (with Boylesports, and 25/1 generally). He is in good form, but has just been running on going quicker than he likes. He could lead all the way, and is probably worth a “place-only” wager on the exchanges with a small win wager.
I can’t see anything at Chester of interest. At Ripon, a recent selection of mine (that was beaten) runs again in Fastnet Storm, who has a much better draw (4) this time. He could run a very prominent race at decent odds.
At Newmarket, the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA who has won this race for the past 2 years, as she is better than these. The only doubt is the going (good-to-firm) and that brings TIMEPIECE into play. The big race of the day is the Cambridgeshire and with 35 runners going to post, this is a race that you play with gut feeling. Horses with experience of these sort of races usually come good again, and RIGGINS who was 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup in 2010 off OR100 comes into this on OR98 having been targeted at this race all season. He’s drawn in the middle at 22, and that’s where you want to be. He may be worth an eachway play at 28/1 with Skybet who are paying to 6-places.
There is a cracking ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen, and that’s where I’ll be having a wager tomorrow as I think I’ve found me a bit of value. You’ll have to go to the Betting League website to find out what I’m on (had an 8/1 winner from 2 selections last Saturday – SP was 5/1).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 18 September 2011
An 8/1 winner for the blog
This is the 338th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
A tremendous day’s racing yesterday and, more importantly, an impressive performance by this blog.
I posted 2 selections on Betting League yesterday and had a cracking 8/1 winner with QUSHCHI (SP 5/1) at Newmarket. Since this horse finished 3rd to Brown Panther at Haydock in May after trying to give that horse (now rated OR118 after coming home 2nd in the recent St Leger) 2lb, she’s been in my notebook (see adjacent page). She’s a cracking filly and must be looking for some “black-type” next time out.
My other selection was TIGER REIGNS at Ayr, who I thought may repeat his win in the same race last year, but he wasn’t in the same form.
However, from my Flat Racing Notebook came a horse I’ve thought very well handicapped, and that was XILERATOR who won at Ayr – making all from start to finish – at odds of 12/1. This horse does not stay a mile (well, he might on an easy flat track), so forget his previous run at Ripon. He also has to be able to get out, lead and dominate the race – which is what he did yesterday. Given his only run as a 2yo was over this course and distance on similar going and he ran well, he should have been tipped-up by me. Even so, with two half-bro’s rated OR100+ he’s one to follow.
Another I really should have been on was CHEVETON who won the Ayr Silver Cup at 12/1. Combine the words “Ayr”, “Soft” and “September” and one name jumps out – CHEVETON. He just loves is at Ayr and I expect he’ll register another win NTO (so long as it’s in September) probably at Haydock as he did last season.
Finally, the way OUR JONATHAN won the Ayr Gold Cup was phenomenal but, it really should not have been a surprise if you look at the formbook. After a tremendous 2yo season, he started life as a 3yo rated OR111 and, as you might expect, he struggled. This season as a 4yo he’s developed into a cracking racehorse, and a look at the formbook shows back in May he was 3rd at York to HOOF IT who was running-off OR99. Now, HOOF IT is rated 20lbs higher at OR119 so to get so close to him back in May was a tremendous effort. In fact, judging by yesterday’s performance OUR JONATHAN has closed the gap on HOOF IT and had the latter taken part I doubt he would have coped with him. You might also want to put the name of the horse that split this pair back in May into your notebook – HORSERADISH seen once since when beaten in a Listed race at Windsor won by BATED BREATH. On a current rating of OR102, HORSERADISH can win when fresh off a break and looks very well handicapped indeed, possibly 10lb+ well-in.
The results since the 1st July are as follows:-
4th July, DRAGONERA, 2pts win @ 4/1; WON …8.00pts PROFIT
5th July, OFF CHANCE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
5th July, FLOWING CAPE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
8th July, CHARLIE COOL, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts PROFIT
9th July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
14th July, JARROW, 1pts win @ 7/1; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
22nd July, DHAAMER, 1pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
26th July, STRONG SUIT, 1pts win @ 3/1; WON …3.00pts PROFIT
28th July, BOOGIE SHOES, 1pt EW @ 12/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
6th August, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 13/2; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
13th August, DOCOFTHEBAY, 1pt EW @ 12/1; placed 3rd …0.80pts PROFIT
19th August, NATIONALISM, 1pt EW @ 7/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
20th August, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt EW @ 25/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
23rd August, GEORGE BAKER, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
26th August, OGEE, 2pts win @ 6/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
30th August, FASTNET STORM, 1pt EW @ 14/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
3rd Sept, RAINFALL, 1pt win @ 4/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
3rd Sept, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 9/2; Lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
17th Sept, QUSHCHI, 1pt EW @ 8/1; WON …10.00pts PROFIT
17th Sept, TIGER REIGNS, 1pt EW @ 8/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
Total = 22.30pts PROFIT (from 31pts staked = 72% return on investment)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
A tremendous day’s racing yesterday and, more importantly, an impressive performance by this blog.
I posted 2 selections on Betting League yesterday and had a cracking 8/1 winner with QUSHCHI (SP 5/1) at Newmarket. Since this horse finished 3rd to Brown Panther at Haydock in May after trying to give that horse (now rated OR118 after coming home 2nd in the recent St Leger) 2lb, she’s been in my notebook (see adjacent page). She’s a cracking filly and must be looking for some “black-type” next time out.
My other selection was TIGER REIGNS at Ayr, who I thought may repeat his win in the same race last year, but he wasn’t in the same form.
However, from my Flat Racing Notebook came a horse I’ve thought very well handicapped, and that was XILERATOR who won at Ayr – making all from start to finish – at odds of 12/1. This horse does not stay a mile (well, he might on an easy flat track), so forget his previous run at Ripon. He also has to be able to get out, lead and dominate the race – which is what he did yesterday. Given his only run as a 2yo was over this course and distance on similar going and he ran well, he should have been tipped-up by me. Even so, with two half-bro’s rated OR100+ he’s one to follow.
Another I really should have been on was CHEVETON who won the Ayr Silver Cup at 12/1. Combine the words “Ayr”, “Soft” and “September” and one name jumps out – CHEVETON. He just loves is at Ayr and I expect he’ll register another win NTO (so long as it’s in September) probably at Haydock as he did last season.
Finally, the way OUR JONATHAN won the Ayr Gold Cup was phenomenal but, it really should not have been a surprise if you look at the formbook. After a tremendous 2yo season, he started life as a 3yo rated OR111 and, as you might expect, he struggled. This season as a 4yo he’s developed into a cracking racehorse, and a look at the formbook shows back in May he was 3rd at York to HOOF IT who was running-off OR99. Now, HOOF IT is rated 20lbs higher at OR119 so to get so close to him back in May was a tremendous effort. In fact, judging by yesterday’s performance OUR JONATHAN has closed the gap on HOOF IT and had the latter taken part I doubt he would have coped with him. You might also want to put the name of the horse that split this pair back in May into your notebook – HORSERADISH seen once since when beaten in a Listed race at Windsor won by BATED BREATH. On a current rating of OR102, HORSERADISH can win when fresh off a break and looks very well handicapped indeed, possibly 10lb+ well-in.
The results since the 1st July are as follows:-
4th July, DRAGONERA, 2pts win @ 4/1; WON …8.00pts PROFIT
5th July, OFF CHANCE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
5th July, FLOWING CAPE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
8th July, CHARLIE COOL, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts PROFIT
9th July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
14th July, JARROW, 1pts win @ 7/1; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
22nd July, DHAAMER, 1pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
26th July, STRONG SUIT, 1pts win @ 3/1; WON …3.00pts PROFIT
28th July, BOOGIE SHOES, 1pt EW @ 12/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
6th August, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 13/2; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
13th August, DOCOFTHEBAY, 1pt EW @ 12/1; placed 3rd …0.80pts PROFIT
19th August, NATIONALISM, 1pt EW @ 7/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
20th August, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt EW @ 25/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
23rd August, GEORGE BAKER, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
26th August, OGEE, 2pts win @ 6/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
30th August, FASTNET STORM, 1pt EW @ 14/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
3rd Sept, RAINFALL, 1pt win @ 4/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
3rd Sept, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 9/2; Lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
17th Sept, QUSHCHI, 1pt EW @ 8/1; WON …10.00pts PROFIT
17th Sept, TIGER REIGNS, 1pt EW @ 8/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
Total = 22.30pts PROFIT (from 31pts staked = 72% return on investment)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 17 September 2011
Big day at Ayr
The 337th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
This week it's been hard work finding something of interest to have a wager on, then today we have the usual Saturday glut of good racing all round the country. As such, it's damn hard filtering through the racing finding worthy wagers.
It's at time like these that you have to resort to tried & trusted filtering methods to avoid making meaningless wagers on events you have not studied properly. For instance, I don't go near sprint races (those less than 7-furlongs) which have more than 10 runners. So, for me, much of today's Ayr meeting is out-of-bounds. That said, if you want an opinion of these races, take a look at the Sprinterstogo blog (link is adjacent).
I've made a couple of selections today and they are already posted on Betting League. Current odds of these selections is 8/1 and 10/1 and I reckon they should both be half those odds at least, and so they represent value wagers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
This week it's been hard work finding something of interest to have a wager on, then today we have the usual Saturday glut of good racing all round the country. As such, it's damn hard filtering through the racing finding worthy wagers.
It's at time like these that you have to resort to tried & trusted filtering methods to avoid making meaningless wagers on events you have not studied properly. For instance, I don't go near sprint races (those less than 7-furlongs) which have more than 10 runners. So, for me, much of today's Ayr meeting is out-of-bounds. That said, if you want an opinion of these races, take a look at the Sprinterstogo blog (link is adjacent).
I've made a couple of selections today and they are already posted on Betting League. Current odds of these selections is 8/1 and 10/1 and I reckon they should both be half those odds at least, and so they represent value wagers.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
There is always value to be found when reading this blog
This is the 336th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I've been out of circulation for the past week or so, mainly as I’ve not seen anything worthy of having a decent wager on. Sure, there are lots of speculative opportunities and, even looking at my Flat Racing Notebook which I put together earlier this season, I could have named a few winners – but they would have been speculative rather than measured wagers.
Take HUMIDOR for instance who won at 14/1 last week (Wednesday 7th). He was entered the day before and would have been the subject of a 2pt win wager, but he was withdrawn at about 11:40am just before I was going to publish my selections on Betting League. The race he ran in on Wednesday I thought he’d be outclassed in, unless he was in tip-top form, hence no selection. Take a look at what I wrote about him on my Horse Alert page: “won class 3, 5f h'cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal, he's improving hand-over-fist.”
On 9th Sept (Friday) at Doncaster, another from my Flat Racing Notebook BEATEN UP won for the 2nd time this season at 9/4. Look what I wrote about him: “won debut at 3yo win commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable.” After winning the race, the Racing Post analyst thought the same, considering him thrown-in (in hindsight) – but I put readers of my blog onto the horse back in April. MASHAAREF in 2nd was another entry in my Notebook.
FINE THREADS (see my Notebook entry) is due to run this weekend, take note.
What I’m saying is that I may not be posting a blog everyday nowadays, but there is still plenty of value in what’s written on the blog. The Weekender is out tomorrow and I’m now concentrating on updating my Horse Alert List for the jumps season. I enjoy the flat, but where I may my bread & butter is on the jumps scene.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose. Thanks from Wayward Lad
I've been out of circulation for the past week or so, mainly as I’ve not seen anything worthy of having a decent wager on. Sure, there are lots of speculative opportunities and, even looking at my Flat Racing Notebook which I put together earlier this season, I could have named a few winners – but they would have been speculative rather than measured wagers.
Take HUMIDOR for instance who won at 14/1 last week (Wednesday 7th). He was entered the day before and would have been the subject of a 2pt win wager, but he was withdrawn at about 11:40am just before I was going to publish my selections on Betting League. The race he ran in on Wednesday I thought he’d be outclassed in, unless he was in tip-top form, hence no selection. Take a look at what I wrote about him on my Horse Alert page: “won class 3, 5f h'cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal, he's improving hand-over-fist.”
On 9th Sept (Friday) at Doncaster, another from my Flat Racing Notebook BEATEN UP won for the 2nd time this season at 9/4. Look what I wrote about him: “won debut at 3yo win commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable.” After winning the race, the Racing Post analyst thought the same, considering him thrown-in (in hindsight) – but I put readers of my blog onto the horse back in April. MASHAAREF in 2nd was another entry in my Notebook.
FINE THREADS (see my Notebook entry) is due to run this weekend, take note.
What I’m saying is that I may not be posting a blog everyday nowadays, but there is still plenty of value in what’s written on the blog. The Weekender is out tomorrow and I’m now concentrating on updating my Horse Alert List for the jumps season. I enjoy the flat, but where I may my bread & butter is on the jumps scene.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose. Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 6 August 2011
Shergar Cup Day at Ascot
This is the 323rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.
Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.
Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.
There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.
Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.
Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.
Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.
Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.
There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.
Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.
Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 30 July 2011
Stewards Cup at Goodwood
This is the 322nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
There was no selection posted on Betting League yesterday, which, given the way the results panned-out, was probably not the way to go.
At Bangor, old “friend” ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES won a hurdle at 25/1, making-all. Regular readers will know that “Shambo” (as he’s called at the stable) was on my list of horses to follow last jumps season, yet it was only after 4 pretty-awful runs that he won at 13/2 at Plumpton in March. He’s run another 4 times since, again showing nothing much, and has now popped-in at 25/1. Sometimes, when you see a glimmer of ability, you have to stick with it. Had I remained ‘faithful’, then I’d now be showing 23.50pts profit to a 1pt level-stake on Absolute Shambles.
And at Goodwood, the Totesport Mile went to BOOM AND BUST. I noted him when he won a class 4 handicap at Newbury in May over a mile in a very good time. I thought he’d defy a 6lb uplift for that, and he did winning NTO off OR86. Going for a ‘Listed’ race at Windsor was probably a step too far LTO, and dropped back to handicaps today he was never really a 25/1 chance given his style of running and rate of improvement this season. But I never had a penny on him as I’d been scared-off by the fav Green Destiny who (as it happened) never got a look-in and ran in much the same way as he did at Royal Ascot. A run best ignored, he’ll bounce back.
At Thirsk. I did write yesterday that John Dunlop was making a very long journey there with MISS TOPSY TURVY for the 4:05, and that filly duly won at 9/4. It just goes to show, I may be posting selections on Betting League but there’s still value in reading my blog. In the next race on the Thirsk card, it looked like JARROW was undone by his poor draw.
You can always be sure that if I’m posting a selection on Betting League then I believe the chance it has is a “value” chance, that its the odds do not reflect its potential to win. I am not a person who bet’s on a 25/1 runner that I think should by 10/1 but has 6 other rivals with better chances in the race. Any that I select, I consider to hold a winning chance and therefore should be one of the 1st-3 in the market and should be no longer odds than 5/1. From today, to view my selections on Betting League, new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, as I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and potentially wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection up.
There is some good racing today, and at Doncaster I reckon the fav Bourne should not be troubled in taking the 3:55, but odds as I write are 5/2 and I reckon he’s more like a 7/2 chance. At Goodwood, I’d love to name the winner of the Stewards Cup, but I find these cavalry charge sprints a complete lottery and reckon you could run the race a dozen times and have a dozen winners. That said, the blog “sprinterstogo” (see adjacent link) has done an analysis and has come up with a shortlist – take a look. There are also good meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk, and I reckon to find value I’m going to have to look there.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
There was no selection posted on Betting League yesterday, which, given the way the results panned-out, was probably not the way to go.
At Bangor, old “friend” ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES won a hurdle at 25/1, making-all. Regular readers will know that “Shambo” (as he’s called at the stable) was on my list of horses to follow last jumps season, yet it was only after 4 pretty-awful runs that he won at 13/2 at Plumpton in March. He’s run another 4 times since, again showing nothing much, and has now popped-in at 25/1. Sometimes, when you see a glimmer of ability, you have to stick with it. Had I remained ‘faithful’, then I’d now be showing 23.50pts profit to a 1pt level-stake on Absolute Shambles.
And at Goodwood, the Totesport Mile went to BOOM AND BUST. I noted him when he won a class 4 handicap at Newbury in May over a mile in a very good time. I thought he’d defy a 6lb uplift for that, and he did winning NTO off OR86. Going for a ‘Listed’ race at Windsor was probably a step too far LTO, and dropped back to handicaps today he was never really a 25/1 chance given his style of running and rate of improvement this season. But I never had a penny on him as I’d been scared-off by the fav Green Destiny who (as it happened) never got a look-in and ran in much the same way as he did at Royal Ascot. A run best ignored, he’ll bounce back.
At Thirsk. I did write yesterday that John Dunlop was making a very long journey there with MISS TOPSY TURVY for the 4:05, and that filly duly won at 9/4. It just goes to show, I may be posting selections on Betting League but there’s still value in reading my blog. In the next race on the Thirsk card, it looked like JARROW was undone by his poor draw.
You can always be sure that if I’m posting a selection on Betting League then I believe the chance it has is a “value” chance, that its the odds do not reflect its potential to win. I am not a person who bet’s on a 25/1 runner that I think should by 10/1 but has 6 other rivals with better chances in the race. Any that I select, I consider to hold a winning chance and therefore should be one of the 1st-3 in the market and should be no longer odds than 5/1. From today, to view my selections on Betting League, new followers will have to pay a small monthly subscription. I’m sure you’ll find it profitable, as I’m not one who will post-up half a dozen every day and potentially wreck your betting bank. If I haven’t got a selection worthy of a wager with my own money, then I won’t post a selection up.
There is some good racing today, and at Doncaster I reckon the fav Bourne should not be troubled in taking the 3:55, but odds as I write are 5/2 and I reckon he’s more like a 7/2 chance. At Goodwood, I’d love to name the winner of the Stewards Cup, but I find these cavalry charge sprints a complete lottery and reckon you could run the race a dozen times and have a dozen winners. That said, the blog “sprinterstogo” (see adjacent link) has done an analysis and has come up with a shortlist – take a look. There are also good meetings at Newmarket and Thirsk, and I reckon to find value I’m going to have to look there.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Get monkey that monkey off your back
This is the 316th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.
Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.
Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.
Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.
At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.
I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.
Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.
Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.
Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.
At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.
I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Who wants to be the King?
This is the 314th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday.
What can I tell you today? Firstly, it’s raining so watch out for going changes and pay heed. If in doubt, be cautious.
The racing today looks fairly ordinary, so I am not inclined as I write this to have a wager.
Nothing catches my eye at Newbury, which looks a bit of a minefield of a meeting.
At Newmarket, the 3:10 – a class 2 h’cap over a mile – is usually my cup o’ tea, and it looks wide open. There is only a single 3yo in the race BAHCELI but altho’ I respect him, he looks a bit short in the market to me. It may pay to take a chance with one at longer odds in this and WANNABE KING fits the bill. He was joint fav for the Cambridgeshire here in October 2009 off this mark, and altho’ he proved not good enough, a strong run mile on good/good-to-firm going is what he needs and it’s what he’ll get today. That trainer David Lanagan is holding back from declaring him a runner until knowing the true state of the going for me is a big pointer should he go to post.
That’s it for today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday.
What can I tell you today? Firstly, it’s raining so watch out for going changes and pay heed. If in doubt, be cautious.
The racing today looks fairly ordinary, so I am not inclined as I write this to have a wager.
Nothing catches my eye at Newbury, which looks a bit of a minefield of a meeting.
At Newmarket, the 3:10 – a class 2 h’cap over a mile – is usually my cup o’ tea, and it looks wide open. There is only a single 3yo in the race BAHCELI but altho’ I respect him, he looks a bit short in the market to me. It may pay to take a chance with one at longer odds in this and WANNABE KING fits the bill. He was joint fav for the Cambridgeshire here in October 2009 off this mark, and altho’ he proved not good enough, a strong run mile on good/good-to-firm going is what he needs and it’s what he’ll get today. That trainer David Lanagan is holding back from declaring him a runner until knowing the true state of the going for me is a big pointer should he go to post.
That’s it for today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Sunday, 10 July 2011
Hayley Turner - Group 1 winning jockey
This is the 311th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
It was a breakthrough day in more ways than one yesterday, especially for the unsung heroes of horseracing – the jockeys.
Hayley Turner was tremendous in steering DREAM AHEAD to Group 1 glory in the July Cup at Newmarket. In my opinion, Hayley Turner is worthy of a place on racing’s “top-table”. She always rides to the best of her ability and, being a woman, she is given no quarter by horseracing’s chauvinists. For her, there is no hiding place.
Then at York, 3lb claimer Adam Beschizza produced GREEN DESTINY with a devastating run down the centre of the track to annihilate the opposition and win the John Smiths Cup by an easy 3½ lengths. I’ve been a fan of Beschizza since this time last season when he was a 7lb claimer (use my search facility to check the comments). I wrote then “He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb.” Admittedly, it was just a steering job on GREEN DESTINY who fulfilled the promise of his 3yo debut at Newmarket in April and is surely destined for group racing NTO.
At Ascot, jockey Pat Dobbs rode DICK TURPIN to victory in the Group 2 Summer Mile and for him too, it was the biggest race he’s won to date. Quite how DICK TURPIN went off at 2/1 when he was 6lb better on official ratings than Red Jazz – who is a only OR118 at 7-furlongs and does not stay a mile – and was 9lb better than the 6/4 fav Side Glance, is beyond me. Had I known he’d be these odds then DICK TURPIN would’ve been my 1st 3pt selection as I thought he’d start odds-on at shorter than 4/5.
Unfortunately, my only selection of the day was AWZAAN in the 4:35 at Chester. What I wrote on Betting League was “Needs a strong pace and he'll get it in this race. Was close-up 3rd to Delgator over 7f at Newbury on 17Sept10 and was rated OR114 for that run. A repeat would put him well clear of this opposition today. Is entered for Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock, and has speed to burn with tremendous turn-of-foot. Ladbrokes go 6/1 and in this morning’s Racing Post, he's the 7/2 fav in the betting forecast. Drawn 8, which is tricky, we'll wager 1pt.” He got out the stalls well enough, but did not seem to handle the turns of Chester (which is always a danger with horses running there for the 1st time). He is disappointing as that run of 17Sept2010 was very good indeed, and he will repeat it one day. Let’s just hope that we can predict when!
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) later to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
It was a breakthrough day in more ways than one yesterday, especially for the unsung heroes of horseracing – the jockeys.
Hayley Turner was tremendous in steering DREAM AHEAD to Group 1 glory in the July Cup at Newmarket. In my opinion, Hayley Turner is worthy of a place on racing’s “top-table”. She always rides to the best of her ability and, being a woman, she is given no quarter by horseracing’s chauvinists. For her, there is no hiding place.
Then at York, 3lb claimer Adam Beschizza produced GREEN DESTINY with a devastating run down the centre of the track to annihilate the opposition and win the John Smiths Cup by an easy 3½ lengths. I’ve been a fan of Beschizza since this time last season when he was a 7lb claimer (use my search facility to check the comments). I wrote then “He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb.” Admittedly, it was just a steering job on GREEN DESTINY who fulfilled the promise of his 3yo debut at Newmarket in April and is surely destined for group racing NTO.
At Ascot, jockey Pat Dobbs rode DICK TURPIN to victory in the Group 2 Summer Mile and for him too, it was the biggest race he’s won to date. Quite how DICK TURPIN went off at 2/1 when he was 6lb better on official ratings than Red Jazz – who is a only OR118 at 7-furlongs and does not stay a mile – and was 9lb better than the 6/4 fav Side Glance, is beyond me. Had I known he’d be these odds then DICK TURPIN would’ve been my 1st 3pt selection as I thought he’d start odds-on at shorter than 4/5.
Unfortunately, my only selection of the day was AWZAAN in the 4:35 at Chester. What I wrote on Betting League was “Needs a strong pace and he'll get it in this race. Was close-up 3rd to Delgator over 7f at Newbury on 17Sept10 and was rated OR114 for that run. A repeat would put him well clear of this opposition today. Is entered for Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock, and has speed to burn with tremendous turn-of-foot. Ladbrokes go 6/1 and in this morning’s Racing Post, he's the 7/2 fav in the betting forecast. Drawn 8, which is tricky, we'll wager 1pt.” He got out the stalls well enough, but did not seem to handle the turns of Chester (which is always a danger with horses running there for the 1st time). He is disappointing as that run of 17Sept2010 was very good indeed, and he will repeat it one day. Let’s just hope that we can predict when!
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) later to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 9 July 2011
One selection - one winner, given yesterday
This is the 310th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I posted just one selection yesterday on Betting League, CHARLIE COOL, and what an easy winner it was. This is what I wrote on there;
“Has been knocking on the door recently without success, but runs off OR86 which is a drop of 2lb and is clear top-rated on official handicap ratings. This trip should suit as will going - let's hope the pace is not muddling. Extraterrestrial is not an odds-on shot given poor form at York (080007) and that a mile is his limit. For me, 11/4 with Paddy Power is a gift.”
CHARLIE COOL was a 2pt win bet at advised odds of 11/4, and he had an SP of 2/1.
Today is probably the best day of flat racing in the entire season with 3 absolute cracking meetings at Ascot, York and Newmarket, plus a host of other meetings. I will repeat the advice I gave earlier in the week and that is on these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 12-noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
I posted just one selection yesterday on Betting League, CHARLIE COOL, and what an easy winner it was. This is what I wrote on there;
“Has been knocking on the door recently without success, but runs off OR86 which is a drop of 2lb and is clear top-rated on official handicap ratings. This trip should suit as will going - let's hope the pace is not muddling. Extraterrestrial is not an odds-on shot given poor form at York (080007) and that a mile is his limit. For me, 11/4 with Paddy Power is a gift.”
CHARLIE COOL was a 2pt win bet at advised odds of 11/4, and he had an SP of 2/1.
Today is probably the best day of flat racing in the entire season with 3 absolute cracking meetings at Ascot, York and Newmarket, plus a host of other meetings. I will repeat the advice I gave earlier in the week and that is on these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after 12-noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 8 July 2011
Trainers "only-runner-of-the-day" pinpoints winners
This is the 309th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for yesterday, and judging by my own personal performance at Newmarket, it was probably a good thing. I had losing wagers on CENSUS (2nd) in the opener, then on ROMAN SOLDIER (2nd) in the 2yo July Stakes, and finally I was on LUJEANIE (3rd) in the last race on the card.
I should have paid more attention to my own advice given on this blog and on twitter, and followed the trainers who were sending solitary runners to far-flung tracks as – right from the opening race at Warwick – they were winning.
To Warwick, Jeremy Noseda sent just 1 horse RED ALPHA and it won at 9/2 and, just for good measure, Mick Channon’s only runner there ROYAL MAJESTIC was 2nd at 4/1 – the Exacta paying £21.60. Ruth Carr had her only runner of the day at Warwick, and ORPSIE BOY won at 3/1 followed home by Andrew Haynes only runner of the day COLLECT ART, the Exacta paying £9.10.
At Folkestone, Sir Henry Cecil’s only runner there CELESTYNA won the opening race at 10/1 (RP B/F was 7/2). Later, John Berry’s only runner of the day KADOUCHSKI won at 5/2 (his only runner today is BATGIRL which is the best horse in his small stable). Then Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner of the day FIRE FIGHTER won at 8/13. Finally, in the last race on the card, Jeremy Gask’s runner SWEET SECRET (named on the blog yesterday) was 2nd beaten just a head at 11/1 by the only runner of the day sent out by Gerard Butler, FULL BLOOM at 9/1. That Exacta was £57.90.
For major meetings like Newmarket’s “July” meeting, following trainers-in-form etc does not work so well as the competition for the races is greater but, even so, David Brown’s only runner of the day FREDERICK ENGELS won at 7/4. But the last race on the card went to James Hartnett’s only runner of the day MURURA at 12/1, followed home by Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day WHOZTHECAT at 12/1 and in 3rd was Dean Ivory’s only runner of the day LUJEANIE at 13/2. What a tricast, £1.027.61.
At Doncaster, the opening race went to Chris Grant’s only runner of the day SENDALI at 5/1. Then Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Doncaster AL KHAN won 16/1 (RP B/F was 4/1). Next up, Des Donovan’s only runner of the day MY OWN WAY HOME won at 7/1. Then Luca Cumani’s only runner at Doncaster SUBMISSION won at 4/6 (was Fallon’s only ride there, he flew up from Newmarket). James Given only had one runner yesterday, and that won the 8:45, ROYAL TROOPER winning at 9/1, with John Gosden’s only runner at Doncaster SENSE OF PRIDE in 2nd, the Exacta paying £32.60.
Epsom was no different. The opening race went to Gay Kelleways only runner of the day HAWAANA at 4/1. The next on the card went to John Best’s only runner of the day BAYLEYF at 7/4. The 3rd race went to Stuart Kittow’s only runner of the day DANCING STORM at 7/2. Later on, Steve Golling’s only runner of the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR won at “evens”.
On these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections for yesterday, and judging by my own personal performance at Newmarket, it was probably a good thing. I had losing wagers on CENSUS (2nd) in the opener, then on ROMAN SOLDIER (2nd) in the 2yo July Stakes, and finally I was on LUJEANIE (3rd) in the last race on the card.
I should have paid more attention to my own advice given on this blog and on twitter, and followed the trainers who were sending solitary runners to far-flung tracks as – right from the opening race at Warwick – they were winning.
To Warwick, Jeremy Noseda sent just 1 horse RED ALPHA and it won at 9/2 and, just for good measure, Mick Channon’s only runner there ROYAL MAJESTIC was 2nd at 4/1 – the Exacta paying £21.60. Ruth Carr had her only runner of the day at Warwick, and ORPSIE BOY won at 3/1 followed home by Andrew Haynes only runner of the day COLLECT ART, the Exacta paying £9.10.
At Folkestone, Sir Henry Cecil’s only runner there CELESTYNA won the opening race at 10/1 (RP B/F was 7/2). Later, John Berry’s only runner of the day KADOUCHSKI won at 5/2 (his only runner today is BATGIRL which is the best horse in his small stable). Then Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner of the day FIRE FIGHTER won at 8/13. Finally, in the last race on the card, Jeremy Gask’s runner SWEET SECRET (named on the blog yesterday) was 2nd beaten just a head at 11/1 by the only runner of the day sent out by Gerard Butler, FULL BLOOM at 9/1. That Exacta was £57.90.
For major meetings like Newmarket’s “July” meeting, following trainers-in-form etc does not work so well as the competition for the races is greater but, even so, David Brown’s only runner of the day FREDERICK ENGELS won at 7/4. But the last race on the card went to James Hartnett’s only runner of the day MURURA at 12/1, followed home by Declan Carroll’s only runner of the day WHOZTHECAT at 12/1 and in 3rd was Dean Ivory’s only runner of the day LUJEANIE at 13/2. What a tricast, £1.027.61.
At Doncaster, the opening race went to Chris Grant’s only runner of the day SENDALI at 5/1. Then Peter Chapple-Hyam’s only runner at Doncaster AL KHAN won 16/1 (RP B/F was 4/1). Next up, Des Donovan’s only runner of the day MY OWN WAY HOME won at 7/1. Then Luca Cumani’s only runner at Doncaster SUBMISSION won at 4/6 (was Fallon’s only ride there, he flew up from Newmarket). James Given only had one runner yesterday, and that won the 8:45, ROYAL TROOPER winning at 9/1, with John Gosden’s only runner at Doncaster SENSE OF PRIDE in 2nd, the Exacta paying £32.60.
Epsom was no different. The opening race went to Gay Kelleways only runner of the day HAWAANA at 4/1. The next on the card went to John Best’s only runner of the day BAYLEYF at 7/4. The 3rd race went to Stuart Kittow’s only runner of the day DANCING STORM at 7/2. Later on, Steve Golling’s only runner of the day TROOPINGTHECOLOUR won at “evens”.
On these busy summer days of racing, the first thing I do of a morning is go thru’ every card and highlight those trainers with only 1 runner at that meeting. Then I highlight those with only 1 runner on the day and give them my attention. Is the trainer a rare visitor to the track? Does the trainer have a high strikerate? Is the trainer particularly successful with a type or age of horse at that track? Has there been a particular jockey booked? And finally, is the horse one of the 1st-3 in the RP betting forecast? Sometimes there is no particular reason for a market drift on-course other than the stable are not one that likes a wager.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selections are for today – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 7 July 2011
Feast or famine?
This is the 308th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?
James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.
There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.
The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections for yesterday, which was (in my opinion) one of the worst days racing on the flat (turf) that has been programmed in a long while, and yet today starts a feast of flat racing peaking with 3 cracking meetings on Saturday. It’s either feast or famine with the race planners – will they ever get the balance right?
James Fanshawe sent just 2 horses to Kempton on the AW last night, and both won.
Snow Fairy at 5/1 and Great Acclaim at 16/1.
Snow Fairy was well tipped-up by Kieren Fallon in his column in the Weekender, as he rightly pointed out that the horse’s form on the AW was 141. Well, the horse now has 3 wins from 4 starts on the AW and, with a speed figure of 85 achieved when winning over 10f at Kempton on the AW last October, this filly should be capable of a follow-up win on the AW as she won this off OR77 and she should not be raised more than 5lb.
Great Acclaim is a full-brother to Berbice who is still in training, and Berbice was a very talented 2yo who started racing as a 3yo off OR107. He’s never looked up to that since, but Great Acclaim looks like being a lot better than his bro’. He also stays 7f, so there is some flexibility with him.
Fanshawe has a great strike rate at Kempton on the AW with older horses. He’s 0 from 18 with 2yo’s there, but 14 from 73 with 3yo’s (19%) and 10 from 43 with 4yo’s+ (23%) and should be noted when sending alder horses there.
There is plenty of racing today with meetings this afternoon at Warwick and Folkestone alongside the feature meeting at Newmarket on the July course. This evening has a couple more meetings at Epsom and Doncaster; so plenty to get stuck into. On days like today it is always worth taking note of trainers plans, especially if they are sending out just the one runner on the day to some far flung track; such as Jeremy Gask who sends the interesting Sweet Secret to Folkestone for the fillies handicap at 4:50.
The “July” meeting looks a cracker right from the off (an early start at 1:20) and while I was on Solar Sky at the Royal Ascot meeting I’m not sure a drop in trip is the way to go. North-East trainer Michael Dods has only sent out one winner to a track south of Leicester in the past 5 seasons and tho’ I reckon his only runner at Newmarket - Well Sharp – looks well handicapped for the 2:25, there is clearly something amiss with the long-distance-travellers from the Dods stable that needs sorting.
Please check Betting League (http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) after noon today to see what my selection are for today. I may well post up several during the course of the afternoon, so check the site a few times – it’s free.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 4 July 2011
Back from holiday and a new way forward
This is the 305th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
For those who are interested, I had a very good holiday in Ibiza and can fully recommend it as a place to go. We stayed at Cala Pada, a few kilometres north of Santa Eulalia.
I did a bit of thinking about where to take the blog while on holiday and I’m going to experiment a bit over the next few months between now and the running of the Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe on the first Sunday in October. Over this period of 3 months I will continue writing the blog and making comment on horseracing in general, but I won’t be posting any selections on the blog.
Any selections that I make will be posted on Betting League (see the adjacent link or go direct via http://www.bettingleague.co.uk/) . There is no financial advantage to me in doing this as you will be able to view my selections when I post them there for free. What hopefully I will get from this is knowledge of how many people are reading the blog and then using the information that I put-up in having a wager.
As such, the blog won’t take me as much time as it has done, and I can spend more time on making selections and posting them up on Betting League. If, as I hope, my performance increases then that will be recorded as “proofed”. If you view the list of tipsters on Betting League then you will see that there are a few established tipsters on there, notably The Valueman, that I will be measuring myself against.
At the end of the day, after writing this blog for over 12 months, there has to be a reason. I went into it after having my best ever jumps season in 2009/10 during which I was able to sustain a reasonable income from my wagering. During that jumps season, I never wagered a sum greater than £40 and my total stakes averaged about £1000 a week. As such, I thought that with a bit of dedication I could make a blog pay for itself via donations, but I was wrong.
It is likely that the number of wagers that I advise via Betting League will increase in-line with how I have produced my best profits in the past, which is about 3 to 5 selections per day on 5 or 6 days during the week. Don’t forget, access to my selections via Betting League will be free (at least for the time being) and you can always find me on twitter under the tagline @wayward_lad.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Notebook up-to-date
This is the 291st edition of the daily blog page.
No winners for the blog on Saturday, but I really should have followed my gut-feeling and gone with the Friday selection FLOWING CAPE (who was a non-runner on Friday) who ran at Catterick over 6-furlongs and ran-out a very strong winner at 6/1. Then, on Sunday, from the “Notebook” HUMIDOR ran at Nottingham. Unfortunately, he ran loose before the race and (despite have the best of the draw) he faded quickly in the final furlong having held a winning position, and I will forgive him this run.
This is a long blog as it contains all those named in the Notebook as only by posting them on a page like this means that the entries are kept on permanent record and can be looked-up using the “search” facility. Also, I am away for the rest of this week seeing my 8yo son in Cornwall. After that, things will be a bit quiet for the blog as I am “cramming” for some professional exams on 20th June, and then it’s 2 weeks in Ibiza!
I hope that this Notebook list provides some good winners. I am particularly hopeful of a few, such as ZUIDER ZEE who was due to run on Saturday but the going was too fast. KEPLER’S LAW is entered to run on Wednesday but he could be at short odds as he looks to be one of Sir Mark’s multiple handicap winners in the making.
No selections today but I have added a couple more to the Notebook in FLOWING CAPE and XILERATOR who both look capable of following-up last week’s winning efforts.
The Notebook
FLOWING CAPE: 6yo trained by Reg Hollinshead – currently in the form of his life and his latest win was a career-best effort over 6-furlongs. He needs a stiff 6f and I reckon is best at 7-furlongs on good or GF going (31st May).
XILERATOR: 4yo trained by David Nicholls - His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR won LTO (only his 7th race) in a fast time racing alone. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential, tho’ at time of writing I am unaware of his re-rating (31st May).
QUSHCHI: 3yo filly trained by William Jarvis – while everyone else was watching eventual winner Brown Panther, Qushchi (the only filly in the race) showed plenty of ability to stay-on from a similar position as the winner (to who she was giving 2lb) and finish well infront of the remainder of the field. The step-up to 12-furlongs was ideal and, with a revised rating of just OR86 (+3lb) she can prove equal to her dam (OR107) or maybe even her dam’s half-bro, Grand Lodge (2nd in G1 Champion Stakes and OR125) (26th May).
GRUMETI: 3yo trained by Michael Bell – stayed on very well in strong run race over possibly an inadequate, 10-furlong, trip. Half-bro’s were best over 12-furlongs so scope to improve and only raised 6lb to OR73. Could be lot better than this. Note: another boost for Four Nations (see below) (26th May).
KITTY WELLS: 4yo filly trained by Luca Cumani – if you can get odds about this one for the Ebor, do it now! This was only her 5th race and (off a 148-day break) this full sister to St Leger winner Milan (OR125) started slowly, was hampered when entering the straight, then couldn’t find a way thru’ beaten horses. Finally, when in the clear, she made ground hand-over-fist on the runaway winner. She’s been raised 5lb to OR85 so clearly the handicapper saw promise, and she looks well-up to matching her families achievements (26th May)
OUR JOE MAC: 4yo trained by Richard Fahey – challenged, but btn by going (needs give) and as such a tremendous run in a competitive h’cap. Stays on same rating of OR89 which is 2lb below his last winning mark and 7lb below his peak rating. He looks capable of staying beyond a mile (25th May).
TARTAN TRIP: 4yo trained by Andrew Balding – came to win his race and only btn by exceptionally well h’capped rival. Raised just 1lb for that to OR84, which looks lenient. He’s a 3-parts brother of Border Music (OR105) so may prove best at 7-furlongs on GF going. Only 7 turf runs, so probably unexposed on turf (25th May).
The Class 5, mile & 75yds maiden at Nottingham on 17th May was won by MASHAAREF trained by Roger Varian, but I was far more impressed with a couple who finished behind him: MAALI in 2nd and WATERCOURSE in 4th. MAALI did not go on with the winner about 3f-out and had 3+ lengths to make-up. Then, we he got moving he was knocked sideways and virtually stopped by the fast-fading Dervisher (finished in 6th), but picked himself up again and ran-on strong to fail by just a head! MASAAREF has been rated OR82, but MAALI is unrated as yet. WATERCOURSE (finished 4th) stayed on in eye-catching fashion and looks desperate for 10f+. He has been rated OR76. Both MASHAAREF and WATERCOURSE look well-treated, and it may be we’ll have to wait until one of them runs again before we can establish a rating for MAALI (25th May)
KEPLER’S LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Sir Mark Prescott - won this class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs in a canter off a mark of OR57, and so he should. Bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW is a full bro’ to Bashkirov who is still in training in Ireland and was btn less than 5-lengths in the Irish Derby. His half-bro’ Summitville was 2nd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and rated OR109. I rate this one 72+ but he could easily be 90+ by September (25th May).
THE MELLOR FELLA: 3yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – improved over winter and won with contemptuous ease on 3yo debut in good time. Raised 6lb to OR84 for that and it does not look anywhere near enough. Dam-line has some top milers, so he could well get a mile and looks capable of much improvement (23rd May).
JARROW: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – Altho’ not a winner on turf (yet) he’s shown some cracking form, including LTO at Doncaster when 2nd over 6f on “good”. Collect Art (in 3rd) has since won, and the 2lb hike to OR78 looks very lenient considering he raced well as a 3yo (when with Mark Johnston) when 2nd off OR90 over 6f at Newmarket. The winner that day (Cockney Class) is now rated 10lb higher, the 3rd (Kanaf) is 8lb higher, whereas JARROW is now 12lb lower! Johnston could not get the horse to run last summer in sprints and gradually increased his trip till he ran over 9-furlongs. Bought by Nicholls for £27,000, he reverted to 6f and ran well in the race that has thrown-up Karaka Jack and Doctor Parkes. Nicholls trained JARROW’s half-bro Moss Vale (OR109) to win group races, and he was best at 6f and on GF going (23rd May).
BAWAARDI: 5yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – won well, beating in-form rival aimed at the race, in fast time (TS92). Raised just 4lb to OR90. Only 8 “turf” races – 3 wins, 3 places; at 7-furlongs – 8 runs, 3 wins, 4 places; on GF going – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places. At 7-furlongs on GF going, he must be on any shortlist as he has yet to reach his ceiling (20th May).
PIANO: 4yo filly trained by John Gosden – was withdrawn from December sales and, after sauntering to victory LTO, you can see why. Her dam is a full-sister to Mighty (btn a head in G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes) rated OR112, and half-sis to Group winning sprinter Danehurst. She only raced for the first time last July and has progressed well, if slowly at first. I reckon she’ll be even better over 12f as the progeny of her sire Azamour seem best of 10-furlong-plus. She was raised 10lb to OR90 for that LTO win, which seems a bit harsh, but against her own sex and over 12-furlongs I reckon she can defy it (20th May).
FINE THREADS: 3yo filly trained by Barry Hills - stayed-on well to win 3yo debut over 10f in decent time. Half-bro stayed 12f (4th in Great Voltigeur) and was probably G3 standard. Raised 6lb to OR77, this looks a fair mark if she’s progressive (20th May).
ADMIRAL OF THE RED: 3yo colt trained by AP O’Brien – bred to win an Ascot Gold Cup, he won his 2nd start over 12f massacring the opposition. Beaten stablemate Nantucket Bay (cost £425,000) won a week later. Also behind was Olympian (cost £650,000). It was the style and speed show over this trip that was exciting, and he looks well up to winning Group races, IMO he’s easily 110+. Entered for King Edward VII (Royal Ascot) and Irish Derby. (17th May)
BAISSE: 3yo filly trained by Henry Cecil – a half-sister to 2010 Dee Stake winner Azmeel, she won this in emphatic manner, and in my opinion looked a lot better than the OR80 rating she’s been given for this performance. She should stay 12f and looks an exciting h’cap prospect NTO. (17th May)
FREE FOR ALL: 4yo gelding trained by Sylvester Kirk – won class 4 h’cap (made all) in fast time. Only 4th race and only ran once as a 3yo (won). Half-sis (Miss Gorica) was a consistent “Listed” class performer between 5f-7f, best on GF. Free For All has been raised 8lb to OR90, but looks well up to defying that (17th May).
IMPERIAL GUEST: 5yo trained by George Margarson – won in fast time with more in hand than seemed; Ran in 2009 Guineas, had a short 3yo season. Won 4yo debut, 3rd in Buckingham (off OR90), enjoys big fields, 3rd to Redford & Side Glance (won twice since) at Ascot. Raised just 4lb to OR98, he could be much better than that (17th May).
ZUIDER ZEE: 4yo trained by John Gosden – impressed me when 4th in the Melrose H’cap at York on Aug-2010; LTO on 7th May, ZUIDER ZEE was well placed and coming with a run till being bumped hard by the eventual winner Rock A Doodle Doo from which he did not recover, but stayed on to be 4th. I reckon he could well have won from where he was without that bump, and I’ll be looking to recoup NTO (17th May)
BOOGIE SHOES: 4yo gelding trained by Roger Varian - won decent h'cap, looks progressive. Half-bro's both decent types who were (are) rated OR100+, so OR90 rating looks fair. Yet to be tested fully (16th May)
FOUR NATIONS: 3yogelding trained by Amanda Perrett - won 10f C5 h'cap on seasonal debut, came from long way back in good time. Must be a lot better than his. Raised only 7lb to OR72 looks very lenient indeed (16th May)
SPACE WAR: 4yo gelding trained by Michael Easterby - stayed on well from long way off the pace, and looks like wanting further than a mile. Bought from Gosden's stable for £30,000 in Oct'10, this was only his 8th race (didn't run as a 2yo) and he looks on the upgrade (16th May)
COLOMBIAN: 3yo colt trained by John Gosden - won maiden in striking fashion at Chester, showing good turn-of-foot off a face pace; OR93 rating looks lenient as half-bro Clodovil won French Guineas (16th May)
TRES CORONAS: 4yo gelding trained by David Barrons – showed tremendous turn-of-foot at Chester and despite short of room only just failed. Jky Graham Gibbons now 2 wins from 3 rides (and short-head 2nd in other). Gets any going, best at 10-furlongs (16th May)
WINTER’S NIGHT: 3yo filly trained by Clive Cox – won seasonal debut off 195-day break (raised 3lb to OR90) beating race-fit runner-up (3 wins in 2011) in fast time. Handles any ground, but needs a strong pace. Was unfortunate to not get a clear run thru’ when trying a mile LTO and was 3rd, but has been raised a further 6lb to OR96 which looks tough. (26th May)
HUMIDOR: 4yo gelding trained by George Baker - won class 3, 5f h'cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional, and only raised 6lb to OR93. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal (1st May) he's improving hand-over-fist. Ignore his latest run as he got loose prior to the race and lost vital energy.
MUSIC FESTIVAL: 4yo colt trained by Jim Goldie - won Class 4, 7f h'cap in very good time on 4yo debut. Lightly raced (9 starts), and unraced as a 2yo. Cost Goldie only £3,000 (bought out of Mark Johnstons stable) as 3yo despite dam having won French Guineas in 2003 (Musical Chimes). Raised only 4lb for that win to OR64, he seems best on good or quicker going (his dam was best on fast going) (10th May). Btn over 6f LTO, almost certainly needs 7f+ now (16th May).
CAPTIVATOR: 4yo filly with James Fanshawe - won with huge amount in hand very easily LTO off OR75. Raised 8lb for that win to OR83. However, has 4 x half-sisters rated OR100+ so has plenty of potential for improvement (26th Apr).
BELGIAN BILL: 3yo colt with George Baker - very confidently ridden and won well LTO off OR92 in fastest time of the day (TS95). Only raised 5lb to OR97, he needs GF going to be seen in best form (26th Apr).
BEATEN UP: 3yo colt trained by William Haggas – won debut at 3yo win commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable (27th Apr).
BUZZ LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Mrs K Burke - won this race (class 5) with more in hand than winning margin and in fast time too. Hung closing stages so not driven out. Raised 6lb to OR75, looks fair(published 27th Apr). NTO on 6th May at Ascot, unable to quicken despite every chance. Drop in grade to Class 5 should suit (9th May).
KARAKA JACK: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – ran best race in ages, was 2nd in Esher Cup over a mile (class 2) off OR90. May run best on “Good” or GS, wants 7f (27th Apr). NTO on 30th April, came 3rd over 7f when met very well h'capped rival. On 21st May over 6f only just btn. Raised 2lb to OR77 - give another chance (26th May).
CHIEFDOM PRINCE: 3yo colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute - carried 10lb more than Flipando (won on same card) yet won his race in same time – but was rated 9lb inferior to Flipando by RPR?!? Stoute may have a good one here as his half-bro Rising Shadow won the Cammidge and was rated OR110. CHIEFDOM PRINCE has only been given a rating of OR87, which is 11lb less than Flipando on OR98. He looks thrown-in for a good handicap (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May, held every chance final furlong when badly bumped, not pushed thereon. Can win off this OR87 rating - give another chance (9th May).
PARLOUR GAMES: 3yo colt trained by Al Zarooni - well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) and looks best produce so far of the dam. Showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader, could be much better than this. Only raised 5lb to OR84 (29th Apr). Btn on GF going LTO, almost certainly want Good or GS going (16th May).
NASRI: 5yo gelding trained by David Nicholls - was decent 3yo (2nd Listed race with OR112 Donativum behind) but lost way as 4yo when moved to David Simcock. Bought by Nicholls at Oct2010 sales for £20,000 and he has found the "key" - 7f on GF from the front. Was rated OR104 as a 3yo (yet to be re-rated). (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May was 3rd in Victoria Cup off OR97. Was leading inside final furlong, and likely to remain on a winning mark after this. (9th May).
NIGHT CARNATION: 3yo filly trained by Andrew Balding - only 5 runs but ignore 1st-2 as a 2yo over 7f, she's a sprinter! LTO at Sandown, she quickened readily to pick-up the leader, and then quickened again to go clear. She was able to sustain the run to the line winning easily in a fast time. Balding knows how to handle these sprint horses who is expected to be better with some "give" (28th Apr). Won NTO, can improve again (16th May).
CAPTAIN BERTIE: 3yo colt trained by Barry Hills - has improved with every run, unfortunately met a good'un in Tazahum here. Was 2nd btn neck by Pausanius (now OR106) last season, so OR84 was lenient, and 4-lengths gap to 3rd reinforces that. May be best at 7f, but must be on NTO (28th Apr). NTO on 5th May at Chester on Good-to-Firm and was never happy, perhaps the going was too quick for him. Give another chance, tho' runs next off OR90 (9th May).
CHAIN LIGHTNING: 3yo colt trained by Richard Hannon - ridden with extreme confidence by Richard Hughes in what looks a very good class 3 h'cap. Plenty of hard-luck stories behind, but they all look well held. He looks to have lots of potential and should stay 12f (28th Apr). Several have come out of this race and won since (17th May).
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No winners for the blog on Saturday, but I really should have followed my gut-feeling and gone with the Friday selection FLOWING CAPE (who was a non-runner on Friday) who ran at Catterick over 6-furlongs and ran-out a very strong winner at 6/1. Then, on Sunday, from the “Notebook” HUMIDOR ran at Nottingham. Unfortunately, he ran loose before the race and (despite have the best of the draw) he faded quickly in the final furlong having held a winning position, and I will forgive him this run.
This is a long blog as it contains all those named in the Notebook as only by posting them on a page like this means that the entries are kept on permanent record and can be looked-up using the “search” facility. Also, I am away for the rest of this week seeing my 8yo son in Cornwall. After that, things will be a bit quiet for the blog as I am “cramming” for some professional exams on 20th June, and then it’s 2 weeks in Ibiza!
I hope that this Notebook list provides some good winners. I am particularly hopeful of a few, such as ZUIDER ZEE who was due to run on Saturday but the going was too fast. KEPLER’S LAW is entered to run on Wednesday but he could be at short odds as he looks to be one of Sir Mark’s multiple handicap winners in the making.
No selections today but I have added a couple more to the Notebook in FLOWING CAPE and XILERATOR who both look capable of following-up last week’s winning efforts.
The Notebook
FLOWING CAPE: 6yo trained by Reg Hollinshead – currently in the form of his life and his latest win was a career-best effort over 6-furlongs. He needs a stiff 6f and I reckon is best at 7-furlongs on good or GF going (31st May).
XILERATOR: 4yo trained by David Nicholls - His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR won LTO (only his 7th race) in a fast time racing alone. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential, tho’ at time of writing I am unaware of his re-rating (31st May).
QUSHCHI: 3yo filly trained by William Jarvis – while everyone else was watching eventual winner Brown Panther, Qushchi (the only filly in the race) showed plenty of ability to stay-on from a similar position as the winner (to who she was giving 2lb) and finish well infront of the remainder of the field. The step-up to 12-furlongs was ideal and, with a revised rating of just OR86 (+3lb) she can prove equal to her dam (OR107) or maybe even her dam’s half-bro, Grand Lodge (2nd in G1 Champion Stakes and OR125) (26th May).
GRUMETI: 3yo trained by Michael Bell – stayed on very well in strong run race over possibly an inadequate, 10-furlong, trip. Half-bro’s were best over 12-furlongs so scope to improve and only raised 6lb to OR73. Could be lot better than this. Note: another boost for Four Nations (see below) (26th May).
KITTY WELLS: 4yo filly trained by Luca Cumani – if you can get odds about this one for the Ebor, do it now! This was only her 5th race and (off a 148-day break) this full sister to St Leger winner Milan (OR125) started slowly, was hampered when entering the straight, then couldn’t find a way thru’ beaten horses. Finally, when in the clear, she made ground hand-over-fist on the runaway winner. She’s been raised 5lb to OR85 so clearly the handicapper saw promise, and she looks well-up to matching her families achievements (26th May)
OUR JOE MAC: 4yo trained by Richard Fahey – challenged, but btn by going (needs give) and as such a tremendous run in a competitive h’cap. Stays on same rating of OR89 which is 2lb below his last winning mark and 7lb below his peak rating. He looks capable of staying beyond a mile (25th May).
TARTAN TRIP: 4yo trained by Andrew Balding – came to win his race and only btn by exceptionally well h’capped rival. Raised just 1lb for that to OR84, which looks lenient. He’s a 3-parts brother of Border Music (OR105) so may prove best at 7-furlongs on GF going. Only 7 turf runs, so probably unexposed on turf (25th May).
The Class 5, mile & 75yds maiden at Nottingham on 17th May was won by MASHAAREF trained by Roger Varian, but I was far more impressed with a couple who finished behind him: MAALI in 2nd and WATERCOURSE in 4th. MAALI did not go on with the winner about 3f-out and had 3+ lengths to make-up. Then, we he got moving he was knocked sideways and virtually stopped by the fast-fading Dervisher (finished in 6th), but picked himself up again and ran-on strong to fail by just a head! MASAAREF has been rated OR82, but MAALI is unrated as yet. WATERCOURSE (finished 4th) stayed on in eye-catching fashion and looks desperate for 10f+. He has been rated OR76. Both MASHAAREF and WATERCOURSE look well-treated, and it may be we’ll have to wait until one of them runs again before we can establish a rating for MAALI (25th May)
KEPLER’S LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Sir Mark Prescott - won this class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs in a canter off a mark of OR57, and so he should. Bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW is a full bro’ to Bashkirov who is still in training in Ireland and was btn less than 5-lengths in the Irish Derby. His half-bro’ Summitville was 2nd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and rated OR109. I rate this one 72+ but he could easily be 90+ by September (25th May).
THE MELLOR FELLA: 3yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – improved over winter and won with contemptuous ease on 3yo debut in good time. Raised 6lb to OR84 for that and it does not look anywhere near enough. Dam-line has some top milers, so he could well get a mile and looks capable of much improvement (23rd May).
JARROW: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – Altho’ not a winner on turf (yet) he’s shown some cracking form, including LTO at Doncaster when 2nd over 6f on “good”. Collect Art (in 3rd) has since won, and the 2lb hike to OR78 looks very lenient considering he raced well as a 3yo (when with Mark Johnston) when 2nd off OR90 over 6f at Newmarket. The winner that day (Cockney Class) is now rated 10lb higher, the 3rd (Kanaf) is 8lb higher, whereas JARROW is now 12lb lower! Johnston could not get the horse to run last summer in sprints and gradually increased his trip till he ran over 9-furlongs. Bought by Nicholls for £27,000, he reverted to 6f and ran well in the race that has thrown-up Karaka Jack and Doctor Parkes. Nicholls trained JARROW’s half-bro Moss Vale (OR109) to win group races, and he was best at 6f and on GF going (23rd May).
BAWAARDI: 5yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – won well, beating in-form rival aimed at the race, in fast time (TS92). Raised just 4lb to OR90. Only 8 “turf” races – 3 wins, 3 places; at 7-furlongs – 8 runs, 3 wins, 4 places; on GF going – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places. At 7-furlongs on GF going, he must be on any shortlist as he has yet to reach his ceiling (20th May).
PIANO: 4yo filly trained by John Gosden – was withdrawn from December sales and, after sauntering to victory LTO, you can see why. Her dam is a full-sister to Mighty (btn a head in G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes) rated OR112, and half-sis to Group winning sprinter Danehurst. She only raced for the first time last July and has progressed well, if slowly at first. I reckon she’ll be even better over 12f as the progeny of her sire Azamour seem best of 10-furlong-plus. She was raised 10lb to OR90 for that LTO win, which seems a bit harsh, but against her own sex and over 12-furlongs I reckon she can defy it (20th May).
FINE THREADS: 3yo filly trained by Barry Hills - stayed-on well to win 3yo debut over 10f in decent time. Half-bro stayed 12f (4th in Great Voltigeur) and was probably G3 standard. Raised 6lb to OR77, this looks a fair mark if she’s progressive (20th May).
ADMIRAL OF THE RED: 3yo colt trained by AP O’Brien – bred to win an Ascot Gold Cup, he won his 2nd start over 12f massacring the opposition. Beaten stablemate Nantucket Bay (cost £425,000) won a week later. Also behind was Olympian (cost £650,000). It was the style and speed show over this trip that was exciting, and he looks well up to winning Group races, IMO he’s easily 110+. Entered for King Edward VII (Royal Ascot) and Irish Derby. (17th May)
BAISSE: 3yo filly trained by Henry Cecil – a half-sister to 2010 Dee Stake winner Azmeel, she won this in emphatic manner, and in my opinion looked a lot better than the OR80 rating she’s been given for this performance. She should stay 12f and looks an exciting h’cap prospect NTO. (17th May)
FREE FOR ALL: 4yo gelding trained by Sylvester Kirk – won class 4 h’cap (made all) in fast time. Only 4th race and only ran once as a 3yo (won). Half-sis (Miss Gorica) was a consistent “Listed” class performer between 5f-7f, best on GF. Free For All has been raised 8lb to OR90, but looks well up to defying that (17th May).
IMPERIAL GUEST: 5yo trained by George Margarson – won in fast time with more in hand than seemed; Ran in 2009 Guineas, had a short 3yo season. Won 4yo debut, 3rd in Buckingham (off OR90), enjoys big fields, 3rd to Redford & Side Glance (won twice since) at Ascot. Raised just 4lb to OR98, he could be much better than that (17th May).
ZUIDER ZEE: 4yo trained by John Gosden – impressed me when 4th in the Melrose H’cap at York on Aug-2010; LTO on 7th May, ZUIDER ZEE was well placed and coming with a run till being bumped hard by the eventual winner Rock A Doodle Doo from which he did not recover, but stayed on to be 4th. I reckon he could well have won from where he was without that bump, and I’ll be looking to recoup NTO (17th May)
BOOGIE SHOES: 4yo gelding trained by Roger Varian - won decent h'cap, looks progressive. Half-bro's both decent types who were (are) rated OR100+, so OR90 rating looks fair. Yet to be tested fully (16th May)
FOUR NATIONS: 3yogelding trained by Amanda Perrett - won 10f C5 h'cap on seasonal debut, came from long way back in good time. Must be a lot better than his. Raised only 7lb to OR72 looks very lenient indeed (16th May)
SPACE WAR: 4yo gelding trained by Michael Easterby - stayed on well from long way off the pace, and looks like wanting further than a mile. Bought from Gosden's stable for £30,000 in Oct'10, this was only his 8th race (didn't run as a 2yo) and he looks on the upgrade (16th May)
COLOMBIAN: 3yo colt trained by John Gosden - won maiden in striking fashion at Chester, showing good turn-of-foot off a face pace; OR93 rating looks lenient as half-bro Clodovil won French Guineas (16th May)
TRES CORONAS: 4yo gelding trained by David Barrons – showed tremendous turn-of-foot at Chester and despite short of room only just failed. Jky Graham Gibbons now 2 wins from 3 rides (and short-head 2nd in other). Gets any going, best at 10-furlongs (16th May)
WINTER’S NIGHT: 3yo filly trained by Clive Cox – won seasonal debut off 195-day break (raised 3lb to OR90) beating race-fit runner-up (3 wins in 2011) in fast time. Handles any ground, but needs a strong pace. Was unfortunate to not get a clear run thru’ when trying a mile LTO and was 3rd, but has been raised a further 6lb to OR96 which looks tough. (26th May)
HUMIDOR: 4yo gelding trained by George Baker - won class 3, 5f h'cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional, and only raised 6lb to OR93. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal (1st May) he's improving hand-over-fist. Ignore his latest run as he got loose prior to the race and lost vital energy.
MUSIC FESTIVAL: 4yo colt trained by Jim Goldie - won Class 4, 7f h'cap in very good time on 4yo debut. Lightly raced (9 starts), and unraced as a 2yo. Cost Goldie only £3,000 (bought out of Mark Johnstons stable) as 3yo despite dam having won French Guineas in 2003 (Musical Chimes). Raised only 4lb for that win to OR64, he seems best on good or quicker going (his dam was best on fast going) (10th May). Btn over 6f LTO, almost certainly needs 7f+ now (16th May).
CAPTIVATOR: 4yo filly with James Fanshawe - won with huge amount in hand very easily LTO off OR75. Raised 8lb for that win to OR83. However, has 4 x half-sisters rated OR100+ so has plenty of potential for improvement (26th Apr).
BELGIAN BILL: 3yo colt with George Baker - very confidently ridden and won well LTO off OR92 in fastest time of the day (TS95). Only raised 5lb to OR97, he needs GF going to be seen in best form (26th Apr).
BEATEN UP: 3yo colt trained by William Haggas – won debut at 3yo win commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable (27th Apr).
BUZZ LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Mrs K Burke - won this race (class 5) with more in hand than winning margin and in fast time too. Hung closing stages so not driven out. Raised 6lb to OR75, looks fair(published 27th Apr). NTO on 6th May at Ascot, unable to quicken despite every chance. Drop in grade to Class 5 should suit (9th May).
KARAKA JACK: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – ran best race in ages, was 2nd in Esher Cup over a mile (class 2) off OR90. May run best on “Good” or GS, wants 7f (27th Apr). NTO on 30th April, came 3rd over 7f when met very well h'capped rival. On 21st May over 6f only just btn. Raised 2lb to OR77 - give another chance (26th May).
CHIEFDOM PRINCE: 3yo colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute - carried 10lb more than Flipando (won on same card) yet won his race in same time – but was rated 9lb inferior to Flipando by RPR?!? Stoute may have a good one here as his half-bro Rising Shadow won the Cammidge and was rated OR110. CHIEFDOM PRINCE has only been given a rating of OR87, which is 11lb less than Flipando on OR98. He looks thrown-in for a good handicap (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May, held every chance final furlong when badly bumped, not pushed thereon. Can win off this OR87 rating - give another chance (9th May).
PARLOUR GAMES: 3yo colt trained by Al Zarooni - well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) and looks best produce so far of the dam. Showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader, could be much better than this. Only raised 5lb to OR84 (29th Apr). Btn on GF going LTO, almost certainly want Good or GS going (16th May).
NASRI: 5yo gelding trained by David Nicholls - was decent 3yo (2nd Listed race with OR112 Donativum behind) but lost way as 4yo when moved to David Simcock. Bought by Nicholls at Oct2010 sales for £20,000 and he has found the "key" - 7f on GF from the front. Was rated OR104 as a 3yo (yet to be re-rated). (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May was 3rd in Victoria Cup off OR97. Was leading inside final furlong, and likely to remain on a winning mark after this. (9th May).
NIGHT CARNATION: 3yo filly trained by Andrew Balding - only 5 runs but ignore 1st-2 as a 2yo over 7f, she's a sprinter! LTO at Sandown, she quickened readily to pick-up the leader, and then quickened again to go clear. She was able to sustain the run to the line winning easily in a fast time. Balding knows how to handle these sprint horses who is expected to be better with some "give" (28th Apr). Won NTO, can improve again (16th May).
CAPTAIN BERTIE: 3yo colt trained by Barry Hills - has improved with every run, unfortunately met a good'un in Tazahum here. Was 2nd btn neck by Pausanius (now OR106) last season, so OR84 was lenient, and 4-lengths gap to 3rd reinforces that. May be best at 7f, but must be on NTO (28th Apr). NTO on 5th May at Chester on Good-to-Firm and was never happy, perhaps the going was too quick for him. Give another chance, tho' runs next off OR90 (9th May).
CHAIN LIGHTNING: 3yo colt trained by Richard Hannon - ridden with extreme confidence by Richard Hughes in what looks a very good class 3 h'cap. Plenty of hard-luck stories behind, but they all look well held. He looks to have lots of potential and should stay 12f (28th Apr). Several have come out of this race and won since (17th May).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 27 May 2011
An AUDACIOUS move
This is the 289th edition of the daily blog page.
No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.
At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).
As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).
Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).
Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!
Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.
Selections:
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.
Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.
At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).
As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).
Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).
Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!
Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.
Selections:
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.
Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 17 May 2011
Everyone has an UNCLE FRED
No selections yesterday, and it’s another fairly ordinary day’s horseracing today.
There is a meeting at Brighton, but I’ll give that a miss as I don’t like the track. There is another Flat (turf) meeting at Nottingham and an AW meeting at Kempton.
At Nottingham, a jockey I keep a lookout for – Graham Gibbons – has just one ride; Rowan Spirit in the opening 6f h’cap for 3yo’s. He had a single ride last night at Windsor for Ed McMahon and that one came last of 7. Outside of the elite top jockeys with their handsome retainers, life for a “freelance” can be tough.
The rest of the meeting at Nottingham looks very ordinary and nothing catches my eye.
At Kempton, it is not surprising that Gosden’s BANKSY is the fav for the opener. This 2yo cost £70,000 in March this year, and showed a lot of speed LTO at Haydock. With Gosden having a good record at Kempton with his 2yo’s this is the most likely winner of the 6:00.
The only other item of interest at this meeting is why has Sir Michael Stoute kept the 4yo BOTANIST in training? OK, so he’s a full brother to Group 1 winning filly Full Bloom (also trained by Stoute), but the horse was lacklustre in 2 appearances last season. Since that last run, botanist has been gelded and that may bring about an improvement in attitude – but perhaps he’s just not that much good as his half-sister Full Blossom wasn’t up to much winning only a Class 5 maiden on her 11th start. For me, with the presence of Botanist in the race, there should be value elsewhere and UNCLE FRED should get the good pace he needs. UNCLE FRED is in top form at the moment, and he’s a winner at Kempton on the AW. He also ran well here on his last visit over a mile last July, and the only worry is that he may be held-up too much. At 6/1, he looks the value for me as if Botanist was with any other unfashionable stable, he’d be more like 10/1 for this and UNCLE FRED would be 7/2 or maybe even shorter.
No selections today, but UNCLE FRED is worthy of a small eachway wager at 6/1 or longer.
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today. Some that I have written about include:
Zuider Zee / Imperial Guest / Free For All / Baisse / Admiral Of The Red
Boogie Shoes / Four Nations / Space War / Colombian / Tres Coronas / Winter’s Night
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
There is a meeting at Brighton, but I’ll give that a miss as I don’t like the track. There is another Flat (turf) meeting at Nottingham and an AW meeting at Kempton.
At Nottingham, a jockey I keep a lookout for – Graham Gibbons – has just one ride; Rowan Spirit in the opening 6f h’cap for 3yo’s. He had a single ride last night at Windsor for Ed McMahon and that one came last of 7. Outside of the elite top jockeys with their handsome retainers, life for a “freelance” can be tough.
The rest of the meeting at Nottingham looks very ordinary and nothing catches my eye.
At Kempton, it is not surprising that Gosden’s BANKSY is the fav for the opener. This 2yo cost £70,000 in March this year, and showed a lot of speed LTO at Haydock. With Gosden having a good record at Kempton with his 2yo’s this is the most likely winner of the 6:00.
The only other item of interest at this meeting is why has Sir Michael Stoute kept the 4yo BOTANIST in training? OK, so he’s a full brother to Group 1 winning filly Full Bloom (also trained by Stoute), but the horse was lacklustre in 2 appearances last season. Since that last run, botanist has been gelded and that may bring about an improvement in attitude – but perhaps he’s just not that much good as his half-sister Full Blossom wasn’t up to much winning only a Class 5 maiden on her 11th start. For me, with the presence of Botanist in the race, there should be value elsewhere and UNCLE FRED should get the good pace he needs. UNCLE FRED is in top form at the moment, and he’s a winner at Kempton on the AW. He also ran well here on his last visit over a mile last July, and the only worry is that he may be held-up too much. At 6/1, he looks the value for me as if Botanist was with any other unfashionable stable, he’d be more like 10/1 for this and UNCLE FRED would be 7/2 or maybe even shorter.
No selections today, but UNCLE FRED is worthy of a small eachway wager at 6/1 or longer.
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today. Some that I have written about include:
Zuider Zee / Imperial Guest / Free For All / Baisse / Admiral Of The Red
Boogie Shoes / Four Nations / Space War / Colombian / Tres Coronas / Winter’s Night
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 16 May 2011
CANFORD CLIFFS on track to be seasons top miler
An interesting day’s racing on Saturday, despite there being no blog selections.
The Lockinge went – as expected – to CANFORD CLIFFS. However, he didn’t get things all his own way as the Italian challenger WORTHADD ran right up to his best form here. As such, I rated CANFORD CLIFFS performance at 124 which means he should have another 6 or 7lb improvement in him. WORTHADD won the Group 2 Premier Ribot in Italy, beating Sehrezad (gave Worthadd a 1lb) a neck. Just 2 weeks ago, Sehrezad was 3rd in the Gp2 Prix Du Muguet, just a neck behind BYWORD (giving away 3lb) who (if you recall) won the Group 1 Prince OF Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.
I know it is hindsight, but you really should not underestimate “foreign” challengers on these shores and at 25/1 WORTHADD was grossly under-estimated.
Earlier at Newbury, one that I was looking out for was ADDICTIVE DREAM. Having watched this race several times I feel that the horse could have finished a lot closer (he was 4th beaten nearly 3-lengths) had he been ridden a little more prominently in the early stages rather than being restrained. This is my opinion, not a criticism of the jockey who perhaps thought the horse possessed a little more ability than he showed. He moved smoothly into a challenging position, but had no more left when asked for the final challenge. Some thought he didn’t stay this 6-fulrongs and that he may be better suited to a stiff 5-furlongs, but I think he got this trip just fine. The runner-up MAC’S POWER continues on a upward curve and may contest group races next month. The winner Novellen Lad has improved a lot for his move to trainer Willie Musson, but whether he can hold this form is debatable. As for the 3rd, Secret Witness, he was running off 18lb more than his last winning rating and since that win in May 2010 he’s run 14 times and come 2nd on 7 occasions, and 3rd another 3 times. As such, this race was a decent standard and ADDICTIVE DREAM needed to be in tip-top form to win. He remains on my HTF list.
Before I go on, today’s racing looks fairly ordinary, although there are a couple of interesting races this evening. What I am probably going to do is get this blog written this morning, and then (if there is something worthy of a wager or comment this evening) issue a supplementary blog about 4:30 this afternoon. For instance, jockey Graham Gibbons travel to the evening meeting at Windsor for only one ride in the final race on the card for trainer Ed McMahon – LOOK WHO’S KOOL. When jockeys can only ride at 9 meetings in a week, sacrificing a meeting for just a single ride (Gibbons had a single ride for McMahon on Noble Storm at Ascot on 6th May – 2nd btn a head; and a single ride on Ancient Cross at York on 12th May – won @ 10/1) means you should take notice.
At Doncaster on Saturday, MUSIC FESTIVAL (one that I made a note of when he winning previously) ran a decent race from 2lb out of the handicap. However, this drop in trip to 6-furlongs did not look like it suited him, and a return to 7-furlongs (or even a mile) looks to be what this son of the French Guineas winner - Musical Chimes - needs. The other horse I noted at Doncaster – MAVERIK – ran a cracker and just met one who looks destined to be a lot better than OR78 in The Mellor Fella. As such, MAVERIK stays on my HTF list, especially as his half-bro SOLAR ONE was 2nd in a couple of Group 1’s including the Prix Lupin in 1995 won by Flemensfirth. A step-up to a mile could bring about a lot of improvement.
At Newmarket, the good-to-firm going did for PARLOUR GAMES and a return to “good” (or, preferably, good-to-soft) as this well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) horse looks the best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. The winner Glencadam Gold benefitted from the step-up to 12-furlongs and he became another winner from the race won by Chain Lightning at Sandown on 24th April. Hawaafez looks one-paced and may need a much longer trip as there is tonnes of stamina in her breeding (dam won over 1m6f).
At Thirsk, FAVOURITE GIRL was handicapped by the rain showers before and during her race. She is best on quick going (3 wins on GF). She was also carried into the centre of the track by the runner-up who was hanging left and, when she couldn’t win, her jockey gave her an easy time of it. As such she’s value for this run.
On Sunday (yesterday) at Ripon, DUBAI DYNAMO ran another good race to be 2nd (btn ½ a length) repeating his performance of last season when he was running off OR95, 12lbs higher than he is now. If he continues to follow the path of last season, he may next run at Chester next week. A look at the formbook tells you that he won at Newmarket on 29th May last year beating top handicapper St Moritz giving that horse a 1lb. This is his time of year!
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
The Lockinge went – as expected – to CANFORD CLIFFS. However, he didn’t get things all his own way as the Italian challenger WORTHADD ran right up to his best form here. As such, I rated CANFORD CLIFFS performance at 124 which means he should have another 6 or 7lb improvement in him. WORTHADD won the Group 2 Premier Ribot in Italy, beating Sehrezad (gave Worthadd a 1lb) a neck. Just 2 weeks ago, Sehrezad was 3rd in the Gp2 Prix Du Muguet, just a neck behind BYWORD (giving away 3lb) who (if you recall) won the Group 1 Prince OF Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.
I know it is hindsight, but you really should not underestimate “foreign” challengers on these shores and at 25/1 WORTHADD was grossly under-estimated.
Earlier at Newbury, one that I was looking out for was ADDICTIVE DREAM. Having watched this race several times I feel that the horse could have finished a lot closer (he was 4th beaten nearly 3-lengths) had he been ridden a little more prominently in the early stages rather than being restrained. This is my opinion, not a criticism of the jockey who perhaps thought the horse possessed a little more ability than he showed. He moved smoothly into a challenging position, but had no more left when asked for the final challenge. Some thought he didn’t stay this 6-fulrongs and that he may be better suited to a stiff 5-furlongs, but I think he got this trip just fine. The runner-up MAC’S POWER continues on a upward curve and may contest group races next month. The winner Novellen Lad has improved a lot for his move to trainer Willie Musson, but whether he can hold this form is debatable. As for the 3rd, Secret Witness, he was running off 18lb more than his last winning rating and since that win in May 2010 he’s run 14 times and come 2nd on 7 occasions, and 3rd another 3 times. As such, this race was a decent standard and ADDICTIVE DREAM needed to be in tip-top form to win. He remains on my HTF list.
Before I go on, today’s racing looks fairly ordinary, although there are a couple of interesting races this evening. What I am probably going to do is get this blog written this morning, and then (if there is something worthy of a wager or comment this evening) issue a supplementary blog about 4:30 this afternoon. For instance, jockey Graham Gibbons travel to the evening meeting at Windsor for only one ride in the final race on the card for trainer Ed McMahon – LOOK WHO’S KOOL. When jockeys can only ride at 9 meetings in a week, sacrificing a meeting for just a single ride (Gibbons had a single ride for McMahon on Noble Storm at Ascot on 6th May – 2nd btn a head; and a single ride on Ancient Cross at York on 12th May – won @ 10/1) means you should take notice.
At Doncaster on Saturday, MUSIC FESTIVAL (one that I made a note of when he winning previously) ran a decent race from 2lb out of the handicap. However, this drop in trip to 6-furlongs did not look like it suited him, and a return to 7-furlongs (or even a mile) looks to be what this son of the French Guineas winner - Musical Chimes - needs. The other horse I noted at Doncaster – MAVERIK – ran a cracker and just met one who looks destined to be a lot better than OR78 in The Mellor Fella. As such, MAVERIK stays on my HTF list, especially as his half-bro SOLAR ONE was 2nd in a couple of Group 1’s including the Prix Lupin in 1995 won by Flemensfirth. A step-up to a mile could bring about a lot of improvement.
At Newmarket, the good-to-firm going did for PARLOUR GAMES and a return to “good” (or, preferably, good-to-soft) as this well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) horse looks the best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. The winner Glencadam Gold benefitted from the step-up to 12-furlongs and he became another winner from the race won by Chain Lightning at Sandown on 24th April. Hawaafez looks one-paced and may need a much longer trip as there is tonnes of stamina in her breeding (dam won over 1m6f).
At Thirsk, FAVOURITE GIRL was handicapped by the rain showers before and during her race. She is best on quick going (3 wins on GF). She was also carried into the centre of the track by the runner-up who was hanging left and, when she couldn’t win, her jockey gave her an easy time of it. As such she’s value for this run.
On Sunday (yesterday) at Ripon, DUBAI DYNAMO ran another good race to be 2nd (btn ½ a length) repeating his performance of last season when he was running off OR95, 12lbs higher than he is now. If he continues to follow the path of last season, he may next run at Chester next week. A look at the formbook tells you that he won at Newmarket on 29th May last year beating top handicapper St Moritz giving that horse a 1lb. This is his time of year!
I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Monday, 2 May 2011
Phenomenal FRANKEL
Wasn’t FRANKEL phenomenal!
I’ve been watching horseracing since I was 7yo (my first classic recollection being Royal Palace winning the Derby in 1967), and Frankel’s performance was perhaps the most exhilarating I’ve ever seen in the UK. In America, Secretariat was just as dominant when winning Belmont Stakes (3rd leg of their triple crown). And tho’ Sea Bird II in 1965 and Dancing Brave in 1986 were exceptional winners of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, neither of them could be called the winner fully 6-furlongs from the finishing post. I didn’t think that FRANKEL was as far ahead of the other 3yo’s prior to winning the Two Thousand Guineas as he showed, but I was on the right lines with naming NATIVE KHAN (along with Casamento) as likely to follow the winner home in the places.
For nominated selections, Saturday was not a good day as all 3 selections were beaten. KARAKA JACK looked poised to take the spoils at the 2-furlong pole but did not have the pace to go on and win, altho’ he stayed on well to be 3rd. The race winner – Dubai Dynamo – won twice this time last season over 7f on Good-to-Firm going (was also 5th in this race off OR88) and that suggests the going at Thirsk was quicker than “Good”. If he takes the Newcastle or Ripon races he contested last season then he could well follow-up. The going was almost certainly too quick for KARAKA JACK and as he’s unlikely to go up for this run, he’s worth another chance on proper good or good-to-soft going. It’s further evidence that the going was quicker than good that JUSTONEFORTHEROAD won the previous race on the card, as he goes best on good-to-firm. In the same race was SNOW BAY who was also on my personal Alert List, and I thought with both horses likely to run prominently and dispute the lead that they’d cancel each other out and set the race up for a “finisher”, I was wrong. They came home 1st and 2nd and I can take solace from the fact that my “Alert List” selection procedure is working well.
Next up was CAI SHEN at Newmarket, but the meeting as a whole was a cracker starting with Green Destiny winning the opening class 2 handicap. I did not analyse this race beforehand, but I wish I did as I am well aware of the breeding of Green Destiny who is a half-bro to the useful hurdler Manjam, and is related to Rainbow Quest via their dam, Mubkera. GREEN DESTINY looks to be on a serious upward curve and I would not be afraid of supporting him over trips up to 12f based on this performance. Dandino took the next race, but the performance to write home about was from NATIVE RULER in 2nd beaten just a nose. Off the track since August 2009, this is a half-bro to St Leger winner Sixties Icon, and their dam Love Divine won the Oaks. He never showed this quality as a 3yo, but clearly had potential as he was kept in training. He may need a break to get over this, but I’d still be interested in him NTO as he’s shown his mettle in this. As for DANDINO, over 12-furlongs and on good-to-firm, I’d follow him over a cliff – he never knows when he’s beaten.
John Gosden has really hit form, and he sent only one horse to Newmarket on Saturday, Treasury Devil who was 3rd behind Ocean War and CAI SHEN. Gosden sent 3 to Goodwood where he had 2 winners (at 16/1 and 7/2), so despite being beaten it may pay to pay Treasury Devil a closer look when he next runs. CAI SHEN met a horse destined for racing at a higher class in OCEAN WAR and I will give him another chance NTO.
The evening meeting at Doncaster opened with one from my Alert List, FRONTLINE PHANTOM winning the 5:35. Altho’ I never nominated him as a selection, his success again showed that my race analysis is going well.
Later, in the 7:45, CAPE VALE was a big drifter in the market (was 11.00 on betfair) and despite leading 2-furlongs out he could not hold on to the lead. I still think he’s capable of a good run off this mark, but he may need to be dropped a few pounds before his wins.
So, 4pts lost on the day. I am going to take a break from daily selections and try and recoup some (if not all) the deficit on the next couple of selections. I’m not in any rush to go back into the market again but, when I do, I’ll make it known via twitter.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
I’ve been watching horseracing since I was 7yo (my first classic recollection being Royal Palace winning the Derby in 1967), and Frankel’s performance was perhaps the most exhilarating I’ve ever seen in the UK. In America, Secretariat was just as dominant when winning Belmont Stakes (3rd leg of their triple crown). And tho’ Sea Bird II in 1965 and Dancing Brave in 1986 were exceptional winners of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, neither of them could be called the winner fully 6-furlongs from the finishing post. I didn’t think that FRANKEL was as far ahead of the other 3yo’s prior to winning the Two Thousand Guineas as he showed, but I was on the right lines with naming NATIVE KHAN (along with Casamento) as likely to follow the winner home in the places.
For nominated selections, Saturday was not a good day as all 3 selections were beaten. KARAKA JACK looked poised to take the spoils at the 2-furlong pole but did not have the pace to go on and win, altho’ he stayed on well to be 3rd. The race winner – Dubai Dynamo – won twice this time last season over 7f on Good-to-Firm going (was also 5th in this race off OR88) and that suggests the going at Thirsk was quicker than “Good”. If he takes the Newcastle or Ripon races he contested last season then he could well follow-up. The going was almost certainly too quick for KARAKA JACK and as he’s unlikely to go up for this run, he’s worth another chance on proper good or good-to-soft going. It’s further evidence that the going was quicker than good that JUSTONEFORTHEROAD won the previous race on the card, as he goes best on good-to-firm. In the same race was SNOW BAY who was also on my personal Alert List, and I thought with both horses likely to run prominently and dispute the lead that they’d cancel each other out and set the race up for a “finisher”, I was wrong. They came home 1st and 2nd and I can take solace from the fact that my “Alert List” selection procedure is working well.
Next up was CAI SHEN at Newmarket, but the meeting as a whole was a cracker starting with Green Destiny winning the opening class 2 handicap. I did not analyse this race beforehand, but I wish I did as I am well aware of the breeding of Green Destiny who is a half-bro to the useful hurdler Manjam, and is related to Rainbow Quest via their dam, Mubkera. GREEN DESTINY looks to be on a serious upward curve and I would not be afraid of supporting him over trips up to 12f based on this performance. Dandino took the next race, but the performance to write home about was from NATIVE RULER in 2nd beaten just a nose. Off the track since August 2009, this is a half-bro to St Leger winner Sixties Icon, and their dam Love Divine won the Oaks. He never showed this quality as a 3yo, but clearly had potential as he was kept in training. He may need a break to get over this, but I’d still be interested in him NTO as he’s shown his mettle in this. As for DANDINO, over 12-furlongs and on good-to-firm, I’d follow him over a cliff – he never knows when he’s beaten.
John Gosden has really hit form, and he sent only one horse to Newmarket on Saturday, Treasury Devil who was 3rd behind Ocean War and CAI SHEN. Gosden sent 3 to Goodwood where he had 2 winners (at 16/1 and 7/2), so despite being beaten it may pay to pay Treasury Devil a closer look when he next runs. CAI SHEN met a horse destined for racing at a higher class in OCEAN WAR and I will give him another chance NTO.
The evening meeting at Doncaster opened with one from my Alert List, FRONTLINE PHANTOM winning the 5:35. Altho’ I never nominated him as a selection, his success again showed that my race analysis is going well.
Later, in the 7:45, CAPE VALE was a big drifter in the market (was 11.00 on betfair) and despite leading 2-furlongs out he could not hold on to the lead. I still think he’s capable of a good run off this mark, but he may need to be dropped a few pounds before his wins.
So, 4pts lost on the day. I am going to take a break from daily selections and try and recoup some (if not all) the deficit on the next couple of selections. I’m not in any rush to go back into the market again but, when I do, I’ll make it known via twitter.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 30 April 2011
Two Thousand Guineas day
I’m very excited about racing on this beautiful day. The reason? I’ve been working on producing a list of well-handicapped horses that I consider are better than their current ratings, with the intention of wagering on them when they next get the conditions they require to do their best.
But first, the Two Thousand Guineas.
I really hope that FRANKEL wins and becomes the horse that carries the Flat season forward. Every season needs a hero and FRANKEL could be this years. However, I don’t think he’s as far ahead as the betting makes out. In my opinion, he’s about 4lb ahead of this field on 2yo form; so what could challenge him today? I’m looking at 2 in this, purely based on the odds. They are CASAMENTO @ 12/1 and NATIVE KHAN @ 18/1 (and drifting). On form, Casamento is as good as any of the Irish challengers and so should be on 7/1 along with Pathfork. Trainer, Al Zarooni will have this horse at his peak and he has perhaps the best flat jockey currently riding in the saddle in Dettori. If this horse is good enough, it won’t be out of the 1st-3 and that makes 12/1 eachway a good value wager. Ditto Native Khan, who has the benefit of a run this season already when winning the Craven over C&D. If, the 15lb of improvement that trainer Ed Dunlop reckons was still to come arrives today, then he will be a very strong finishing horse. Odds of 11/2 and 13/2 without the fav look good to me.
From my alert list (public and private) comes:-
CAI SHEN (Newmarket 4:55) and I marked this horse out as one with exceptional promise when he ran away with his race LTO. He showed acceleration, stamina and tenacity that day and I expected him to be the 9/4 (or shorter) fav today – yet, he’s 9/2 with Corals as I write (4’s generally). This has to be a wager.
At Thirsk, both Justonefortheroad and Snow Bay are on my list, but I fear they will cancel each other out in this an set the race up for a finisher. As such, I’ll pass on this race, but the 4:10 sees KARAKA JACK return to the track. He runs off OR75 and showed he’s recapturing his form (was 2nd in Esher Cup off OR90 in April last year) with a good run LTO over an inadequate 6-furlongs. The easier “good” going will help him today, as will increase in trip to 7-furlongs. I was hoping for longer odds, but 4/1 looks fair enough for a small stake.
At Doncaster, FRONTLINE PHANTOM (running in the 5:35) was one I had on my list, but the value in him has gone now as he’s 9/4 (from 4/1) this morning. Later, in the 7:45 runs CAPE VALE. Now, I am not a big fan of these sprint races over 5f & 6f as so much can go wrong at the start, but CAPE VALE made all from the worst of the draw LTO to win like a horse going places. He has improved with every run since returning from Ireland to the Nicholls stable, and he can take this race. Odds of 11/2 look good as the fav Internationaldebut has only won twice from 39 starts on turf.
Selections:
Newmarket 4:55, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Thirsk 4:10, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Doncaster 7:45, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
But first, the Two Thousand Guineas.
I really hope that FRANKEL wins and becomes the horse that carries the Flat season forward. Every season needs a hero and FRANKEL could be this years. However, I don’t think he’s as far ahead as the betting makes out. In my opinion, he’s about 4lb ahead of this field on 2yo form; so what could challenge him today? I’m looking at 2 in this, purely based on the odds. They are CASAMENTO @ 12/1 and NATIVE KHAN @ 18/1 (and drifting). On form, Casamento is as good as any of the Irish challengers and so should be on 7/1 along with Pathfork. Trainer, Al Zarooni will have this horse at his peak and he has perhaps the best flat jockey currently riding in the saddle in Dettori. If this horse is good enough, it won’t be out of the 1st-3 and that makes 12/1 eachway a good value wager. Ditto Native Khan, who has the benefit of a run this season already when winning the Craven over C&D. If, the 15lb of improvement that trainer Ed Dunlop reckons was still to come arrives today, then he will be a very strong finishing horse. Odds of 11/2 and 13/2 without the fav look good to me.
From my alert list (public and private) comes:-
CAI SHEN (Newmarket 4:55) and I marked this horse out as one with exceptional promise when he ran away with his race LTO. He showed acceleration, stamina and tenacity that day and I expected him to be the 9/4 (or shorter) fav today – yet, he’s 9/2 with Corals as I write (4’s generally). This has to be a wager.
At Thirsk, both Justonefortheroad and Snow Bay are on my list, but I fear they will cancel each other out in this an set the race up for a finisher. As such, I’ll pass on this race, but the 4:10 sees KARAKA JACK return to the track. He runs off OR75 and showed he’s recapturing his form (was 2nd in Esher Cup off OR90 in April last year) with a good run LTO over an inadequate 6-furlongs. The easier “good” going will help him today, as will increase in trip to 7-furlongs. I was hoping for longer odds, but 4/1 looks fair enough for a small stake.
At Doncaster, FRONTLINE PHANTOM (running in the 5:35) was one I had on my list, but the value in him has gone now as he’s 9/4 (from 4/1) this morning. Later, in the 7:45 runs CAPE VALE. Now, I am not a big fan of these sprint races over 5f & 6f as so much can go wrong at the start, but CAPE VALE made all from the worst of the draw LTO to win like a horse going places. He has improved with every run since returning from Ireland to the Nicholls stable, and he can take this race. Odds of 11/2 look good as the fav Internationaldebut has only won twice from 39 starts on turf.
Selections:
Newmarket 4:55, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Thirsk 4:10, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Doncaster 7:45, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2 (available generally with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker).
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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