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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 21 July 2011
Get monkey that monkey off your back
No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday. As I wrote on yesterday’s blog, racing this week has been uninspiring stuff and, when it’s like that, value winners can be hard to find. It’s easier to lose money at this game than win it, especially if the “monkey” on your shoulder is cajoling you to have a wager.
Thursday looks more interesting and, looking ahead to the weekend, we should be having a wager or two. As per last Wednesday, I’ve been looking thru’ the advance entries in the “Weekender” hoping to repeat last week’s winning wager on JARROW. If there is a wager on Thursday it’s likely to be at one of the evening meetings, so make sure you pay a visit to Betting League (see adjacent link) to check on what I may be advising. It’s free to register, and (at the moment) my selections are free to view for all.
Friday’s racing has better prospects, and the afternoon meeting at Ascot looks attractive. The 2-mile class 2 Brown Jack H’cap is usually a good pointer for the Cesarewitch and trainer Mark Johnston, who has had 2 wins and 2 placed from 7 runners in the race in the past 10 years, has 6 entered at the time of writing. There is also a cracking class 2 h’cap over 10f in which 3yo’s have a great record from a small representation; 3 wins and 3 places from just 10 runners. The evening meeting at York on Friday has some good racing culminating in the European Breeders Fund Stakes (Listed) for fillies over 10½f. It’s likely this will be a competitive renewal and I will be giving this race plenty of attention.
Saturday’s racing is all about the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, a Group 1 event over 12f at Ascot. This race was once the highlight of the summer with the best 3yo’s meeting the best of the older horses (that remained in training) over the “classic” trip of a mile & a half. The lack of the very best 3yo colts going for this race in the past 10-15 years has meant that it has lost some of its lustre. Personally, I believe that the challenge this race represents to a Derby-winning 3yo colt is too much at this stage of the season if that colt is to be then aimed at the “Arc” in October (the richest race in Europe over 12f). Earlier this week I “tweeted” that perhaps a way of rekindling entries from the top 3yo colts would be to swap dates for the race with the St Leger held in mid-September. The more I’ve thought of this, the better it seems (to me). The St Leger is hamstrung by both being over a mile & 6 furlongs and by being run in mid-September. At that time of year, no trainer of a 3yo colt with pretentions of “Arc” glory would consider running their horse over the St Leger trip. But if the race was run in late July then it could prove to be a natural stepping-stone for 3yo’s following-on from Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby. There would also be enough time in the calendar to allow a break after the race for a ‘prep’ run prior to the Arc in mid-September. And that race could well be a rescheduled “King George”. This race will never be a match for the “Arc” in terms of prize-money but, with a mid-September race date, it could be the perfect ‘prep’ race for 3yo’s and older horses being aimed at the “Arc” in October, in much the way the Prix Niel currently is in France.
At current odds, I’d suggest a play on NATHANIEL at 9/1 for the “King George”. In recent weeks I’ve become a bit of a fan of “The Prophet” (Billy Wallace) who writes in the Weekender, and he’s tipped NATHANIEL for this as well. I think this race has come a bit too soon for Rewilding (following his Royal Ascot win) as he needs a considerable break (probably more than 50 days) between races. St Nicholas Abbey still has to prove he’s up to this class and he’s very much the O’Brien 2nd-string behind So You Think. As such, Workforce may represent a tiny bit of value at odds of 2/1, but his best form is not in small fields. He seems to need to be covered-up and produced late to show his blistering finishing speed. I thought NATHANIEL ran as good a performance as any Derby winner at Royal Ascot and a 3yo Derby winner would be the 6/4 fav in this race whatever the opposition. As NATHANIEL has been supplemented at a fee of £75,000 into the race, it is hard to see him not being in the 1st-3 but, even at quarter-odds, you won’t see much return on your bet if you wager eachway and he doesn’t win.
I’ve been reading lately that turnover on Betdaq has been improving recently, and is now between 15% - 20% of that recorded on Betfair when comparing race turnover prior to the off. Personally, I have throttled-back on my exchange betting turnover on Betfair. About 18 months ago I was staking at least £2,000+ a week on Betfair, and in some weeks it was a lot more than that. It wasn’t all “win” wagers, as a fair chunk was on “back-to-lay” wagers and on laying in the “place-only” market. The place-only market still provides some “gems” of value especially when the fav is very short in the market which is based on hype. But, for me, the “bots” and other automated computer programmes have ruined Betfair. I only ever wager in-running now when I am watching the race on terrestrial tv and even that is soon to disappear. Satellite tv is about 0.80 – 2.00 seconds behind “normal” television transmissions when I watch live broadcasts. As such, most of my turnover (about 60%) is via traditional bookmakers these days and the remainder (about £200 a week) is on Betfair. If Betdaq has improved it’s turnover to nearly 20% of that achieved by Betfair, then I’m going to give it a try. Maybe you should too!
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