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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 14 November 2011
If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ perhaps I should have had a nibble as Viva Colonia managed to sneak 5th in the Greatwood and I wrote yesterday that he could sneak a place (Betfred and Tote were 50/1 and paid on 5 places). It was another tremendous ride from Harry Derham to win on Brampour, as he found the cleanest line round the tight home turn (far too tight a home bend in my opinion) to run out a clear winner.
Stablemate Sanctuaire took a wider line and may have finished closer but for being knocked sideways by the violent swerve from Moondice just before the final flight. The tight bend meant most in the leading group moved onto the stands rail and room there was tight (hence Brampour having the “cleanest” run to the line having stuck to the far side). I would take both Moondice and Sanctuaire from this race as they both look to be on winning ratings.
Al Ferof won the opening novice chase very easily and, in hindsight, odd-on at 5/6 was value punt as he probably should’ve started a lot shorter.
This time last year, I jumped on Gauvain after he won the same race last season, but I’ll not make the same mistake again. He’s peaked for the season.
At Fontwell, The Southern National went to Giles Cross who loves these long-distance chases having run 2nd in both the Welsh National and Eider chases last season. Once he led at 3-out, he was never going to be passed and he will probably go for the Welsh National again. Fortification was beaten by the 15lb hike for his previous win; and Rapid Increase ran out of stamina from 2-out. In 2nd was REY NACARADO, and this 6yo half-brother to Florida Pearl could be a huge improver this season.
There are two meetings today at Plumpton and Leicester.
The 4-runner novice chase at Plumpton (1:30) is a cracker of a race. The bookies are taking no chances with Notus De La Tour, but the chasing debutant KIND OF EASY a half-brother to the OR156 Glencove Marina could upset the applecart. Emma Lavelle has a very good record at Plumpton.
In the 2:30, FLAMING GEORGE has his 1st run for Paul Nicholls (his owners have moved this horse about a bit) and it should be a winning run. He jumps, and gets this trip; also he will appreciate the going.
AP McCoy rides at Leicester, and it is worth noting that of the 11 winners he’s ridden in November, only 1 has been supplied by his retaining trainer Jonjo O’Neill from 12 rides. In fact, that winner (Galaxy Rock) was the only winner – so far – O’Neill has had in November from 48 runners.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Leicester, so it looks like a blank day on the selection front.
Lastly, David Pipe is speculating that his crack novice chaser GRANDS CRUS may be entered in Saturdays Betfair Chase to meet the current holder of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Long Run. It may be a bit quick for the horse to meet such seasoned top campaigners but, if he’s good enough, then he should be in the race. In my opinion, there is not much between the top chasers Long Run, Diamond Harry, Weird Al, and even Midnight Chase is not out of it. If only BIG BUCKS could jump a fence, we’d see a shake-up in the Gold Cup market then!
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