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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Monday, 21 November 2011

If you want value, this is where to come

The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.

There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”

There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.

Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

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The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.


  1. I agree there isn't a lot of value today with small fields, I too like Midnight Appeal and 9/4 is worth a go. Good luck today Ian and keep up the good work.#belucky

  2. Hi Iain,

    I always read your blog but rarely bet on other people's selections. As I am sure you know,I would be more than pleased to make a donation if I had a wager and gained from your advise financially. Keep up the good work.


  3. Thanks for the comments Glenn & Jason.
    No winner today, tho' I did manage to obtain 5.50 in-running and laid-off at 2.10 (and MIDNIGHT APPEAL traded lower than that too).