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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 23 November 2011

Is the 'swinger' value?

The 387th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.

Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2 comments:

  1. I talked myself out of making MONSIEUR JOURDAIN a selection today. Only went an won, didn't it! And at 10/1 too.

    ReplyDelete
  2. WL,

    That's one of the tough parts of this game passing on a winner, especially at a good price.


    All the best

    Jake

    ReplyDelete