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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 16 November 2011
The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
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