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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday 31 January 2015
The Class 2 handicap chase over 2-mile at Sandown could prove an race worth wagering on. When he last ran I was on Brick Red, who jumped poorly making numerous errors when 2nd here to Mr Mole. If he can jump better then he should be capable of showing much improved form, as I reckon he ran to 153 last season and so (off OR144) he's well handicapped. However, he won't have it all his own way as Ballygarvey ran the best race of his life when 4th at Cheltenham in November 2013, a performance I rated 146. He finished a neck behind Eastlake that day when receiving 2lb, and Eastlake went on to beat French Opera NTO by a length when in-receipt of 10lb. So, on that form there's about 11lb between Ballygarvey and French Opera. We didn't see Ballygarvey again until December due to injury, but he won that return without being stretched in my opinion, and a return to his best form is possible. Another in the race subject to some support is Festive Affair, who beat Brick Red when they last met at Newbury, but that was only Brick Red's second chase race, and he's improved a lot since then. With a doubt over Ballygarvey (that he may "bounce"), and with French Opera held (in my opinion) and Festive Affair on a recovery mission after a few poor efforts, I favour BRICK RED to succeed in this and the odds of 4/1 look very fair indeed.
The Scilly Isles Novice Chase looks a cracker, and I can't split them. This looks a race to savour and could well produce a future Festival winner.
For another possible wager I'm looking at the 2m6f handicap hurdle at 3:00pm where the fav Polamco may struggle to find further improvement to win off a 4lb higher rating than LTO. Saffron Wells looks a bit one-paced, and I'm more interested in Junction Fourteen who has yet to return to the form of his novice season which culminated in a win on soft ground at Kempton in Dec13. Even so, without improving on what he's shown this season, he looks held on OR137. The horse that interests me most is CADOUDOFF who is the youngest in the race being just a 5yo. His last couple of runs have been on heavy ground and tho' he was held LTO, before that he chased home the multiple winner Lightentertainment who has since been re-rated16lb higher after winning another 2 races since. This race is likely to be very testing and CADOUDOFF will handle the ground and will be hard to keep out of the frame, so odds of 11/1 look eachway value.
It is the 3-mile chase at 3:35pm that could produce the bet of the day in THEATRICAL STAR. He stays the trip, handles the ground and looks weighted to run well being only 2lb higher for his gallant run when 2nd in the 3m5f Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick 3 weeks ago. The race fav will likely be Bertie Boru who was 2nd here over C&D on the 3rd Jan, but he looks held by the handicapper on that run. I think Le Reve was flattered when he won here in November, as the race fell apart in the final mile and he virtually finished alone. His 3rd LTO suggests he's held on OR139. The Paul Nicholls trained Just A Par looked a promising novice chaser last season, but again he was flattered by a win at Newbury, and when facing Grade 1 opposition for his next 3 races his limitations were exposed. Personally, I reckon he's not a true 3-miler and he'd do better over 2m6f. Ardkilly Witness has had trouble holding his form before now, and I'm not confident he will repeat his effort of LTO now he's up another 7lb. The other Nicholls runner, There's No Panic loves Sandown and always runs well here and he will stay every yard of this and some. As will Hadrians Approach, who won the old "Whitbread" here last April over 3m5f. If he gets into a good rhythm he could take this race apart even with top-weight. There are a few in this race who could win if everything falls into place, so not a race hich holds a lot of confidence. It could be significant that Sam Twiston-Davies rides There's No Panic and not Just A Par and, on reflection, I'm going to pass over this race though I may have a small eachway wager on both Theatrical Star and Hadrians Approach.
I'm taking the 4/1 on BRICK RED as I'd have expected him to be about 5/2 for this.
Sunday 25 January 2015
The works at the course seem to be progressing well, altho' the lack of a rail at the top of the parade ring steps could prove a safety issue come the 60,000 crowds of the Festival in March. That wasn't my only criticism: I'm not happy with the new position of the Arkle statue. He's lost his position of prominence and, as he's used as a meeting-point for many attending the racing, his new position could prove a problem.
For those who read my blog on Saturday, there should be no complaints as I gave 3 selections on Saturday morning, and 2 of them won at odds of 5/1 (Annacotty) and 3/1 (Saphir Du Rheu). My only loser was in the feature race, when Dynaste failed to haul-back the eventual winner Many Clouds on the run-in. The race was run at a slow pace (the first circuit was run at a crawl) and the time of the winner was only 16-seconds quicker than last year when the race was run on heavy ground. Going out onto the 2nd-circuit, I felt the pace of the race was playing into the hands of my selection Dynaste, and I'm sure if jockey Tom Scudamore to run the race again he'd kick-on from the 3rd last fence and try and lead at the 2nd-last. I heard comments post-race that he didn't stay the trip and, admittedly, the trip of 3m1f stretched his stamina at this level - but he certainly stays the distance. He just isn't able to quicken and he may have fared better defending a lead than trying to make one up on the run-in.
The race winner Many Clouds cannot be faulted. He's now won 5 of his 9 chase races, and has improved with each run this season. You have to wonder how close he'd have gone in the RSA Chase last March had he not been brought down at the 14th fence by another faller (who happened to be Don Cossack). The big doubt over Many Clouds is his requirement for a going description with the word "soft" in it. He struggled on "good" ground at Aintree when he ran there at the National meeting after the Festival, and it must be odds-on to be good ground on Friday 13th March. Thing is, he is an improving chaser and he could find enough improvement when he runs at Cheltenham to counter the quicker ground. I rated the race thru' The Giant Bolster who I reckon ran up to the rating of 157 (in my book) that he won the race with in 2014. That puts Many Clouds on 165, Smad Place on 155 and Dynaste on 163. In my estimation, the performances of both Many Clouds and Dynaste would have been good enough to win last years Gold Cup (I rated Lord Windermere's winning effort at 161) and so both are worthy of going to this years Gold Cup with winning chances. It should be taken into account that "good" ground will not affect the chances of Dynaste and at 25/1 NRNB with Paddy Power, he looks the value in the betting.
It should be considered that before Kauto Star and Denman won the Gold Cup. there had been a period of 30+ years during which the winner of the Gold Cup was a horse rated 165-170. It will be no surprise to me if we revert to "norm" and have another period of 30 years of Gold Cup winners rated 165-170 with the best horse "on the day" succeeding,
I had £40 on Dynaste at 5/2, so I was a little despondent that the horse didn't win after running a very genuine race, but I was fully recompensed in the next race when Annacotty repaid my faith by snatching victory on the run-in. This run was right up to the level of his performance in the novices chase over C&D on this day last season, and while he may suffer a re-rating he should be capable of defying it NTO. The other interesting aspect of the race was TAP NIGHT running he best race since running 3rd in this race last year. I felt he just about matched that performance and, if he goes onto contest the Byrne Group Plate again, he will be running off a 15lb lower rating this time.
My day ended splendidly with a win for Saphir Du Rheu at the enormous odds of 3/1. As I wrote on my blog, the horse should have been the 6/4 fav and anything longer than 2/1 should have been grabbed. I jumped in at 11/4 about 8 mins before the off and took my place in the stands, so I missed the 3/1. All the on-course money was for Un Temps Pour Tout but he never looked like justifying his £450,000 price tag and he could prove to be a very expensive purchase. As for Saphir Du Rheu, he needs to find a bit more to be in the mix for the World Hurdle but he's not far away. I'd hope for more than the current 6/1 being offered.
Saturday 24 January 2015
Tuesday 20 January 2015
You can view the race via this link:-
Monday 19 January 2015
Saturday 17 January 2015
There is a cracking 2m 5f & 110 yard chase handicap at Ascot at 3:35, and I'm happy to oppose the weak fav Niceonefrankie who will have his stamina exposed over this trip today. You can say the same about Tenor Nivernais, but Ballinvarrig looks interesting. Bobcatbilly finally got his act together LTO after a few disappointing runs, but he's up 10lb to OR133 and that may be too much. Fox Appeal has been running well without winning this season and he looks well handicapped on OR149, but he's a tricky ride and will test jockey Richie McLernon - he's one for an in-running wager if it looks like he'll be produced late. One who I expect to run well at a big price is Cloudy Bob who did not stay the 3-mile trip LTO when behind Ballinvarrig, and he also goes well right-handed. I'd have him at half of his current 18/1 odds. I must admit, I've had a wager on an outsider in this race on a horse who was pointed out to me by Richard Stoddart of Bet Catalyst.
The Peter Marsh Chase (handicap) at Haydock is one of the great chase handicaps of the jumps season. When the ground is heavy, like it is today, then the race will really sort out the men from the boys. The 5/1 fav is Corrin Wood who ran well LTO but may find trying to make-all on this heavy ground is a big ask, as those tactics are best with a small field that he's able to bully. I prefer GREEN FLAG who will appreciate the heavy ground (3 wins on it over hurdles) and is relatively unexposed. Sure, he ran poorly at Aintree LTO over the National fences, but some horse enjoy the experience and some don't. Odds of 13/2 look fair as he could be a lot better than OR140. Benbens has potential, but he's becoming a tad disappointing, but I would not be surprised to see a big run from him. Vintage Star was 2nd in this race off a 4lb higher rating, so he should be on the premises - but he ran a stinker LTO. Perhaps the ground that day was too quick for him and odds of 9/1 look interesting.
Just the one wager today, GREEN FLAG, £5 eachway at 13/2 with various bookies.
Monday 5 January 2015
So says George Soros, the man who "broke the Bank Of England" on Black Wednesday in 1992.
A man who has donated US$8 billion to human rights, public health, and education causes.
I heard the thoughts of the man with regard to risk when listening to the BBC Radio 4 programme "Teaching Economics After The Crash", which was broadcast yesterday.
The link is http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04svjbj
If you do nothing else today, please listen to this programme. If it doesn't grab your interest within the first 3 minutes, then I can only assume that you are a UKIP voter who wants to blames this countries ills (that is the UK - this blog is read in over 20 countries) on immigration.
Why have I brought this to your attention? Because if you are successful at wagering on horseracing, then you have to be aware of the risk than cannot be quantified. As gamblers we are aware of uncertainty as, if we don't take full account of it, we are certain to lose in the long run.What surprised me about the programme was that the Worlds economic lecturers do not take account of risk in a similar fashion - the economic model used by the World is "flawed" (this is the opinion of George Soros). I am no economist, but I'd have thought that the study of any subject that is fundamentally affected by human behaviour should quickly realise that, when assessing risk, you cannot ignore uncertainty.
Hence, a horseracing gambler will always understand the meaning of the word "value" as their assessment of a horse's chances will include an assessment of risk.
Example: a horse assessed by yourself as a 7/4 chance being offered in the betting market at 5/4 (or shorter) is a poor risk; that same horse offered at odds of 9/4 (or longer) is a good risk.
Saturday's blog was a good effort even tho' neither selection won, as both were placed. BRICK RED produced a very sketchy round of jumping, and that (in my opinion) cost him the race. He's unlikely to go up in the weights for this run and looks well handicapped on OR144. Given the ground at Sandown became softer as the day wore on, it was a tremendous effort from my other selection TRIOLO D'ALENE to be 3rd with top-weight in the 3-mile handicap chase. I reckon on better ground, and with another furlong to run, he can win off this rating. He's not good enough to win a Gold Cup, but he could win a serious handicap.
So, no wins on Saturday, but a profitable day none-the-less.
Saturday 3 January 2015
At Wetherby on Boxing Day we saw a great performance from Dolatulo to take the grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase over 3m1f. Good yardstick Cape Tribulation was in 2nd, and this win makes Dolatulo 2 wins from 2 races over fences beyond 2m6f. He's been re-rated to OR148 (up 9lb) but that could well be 7lb light.
On 27th December at Chepstow we saw a terrific race for the Welsh National with Emperor's Choice winning and, in the process, showing what a fine performer he is on heavy ground. The horse has now won on 5 of his last 7 starts (over fences) on heavy ground, he really loves the mud. That said, I think the handicapper has gone overboard by re-rating him OR139 and he could have a long period out of the winners enclosure now, One of the only horses to beat Emperor's Choice over fences on heavy ground is Arbeo - a chaser with Diana Grissell. After beating Emperor's Choice in Dec12, he won his next couple of races and was rated OR124, but his form has tailed-off and he's currently on OR102. He's only a 9yo, and if he can recover his form he looks a handicap snip on heavy ground.
There are a couple of interesting races at Sandown today, and the 2-mile chase at 1:50pm looks to be dominated by the fav Mr Mole, and Brick Red (representing Venetia Williams). Brick Red is one of 3 off my alert list coming into the race, the other two being Desert Cry and Parsnip Pete. Desert Cry just failed to win here on heavy ground last Feb off OR147 and it's likely he'll struggle to win this today off this mark, even tho' he won his seasonal debut last season. The ground may be too soft for Parsnip Pete, but his OR145 rating looks a tad high now. With BRICK RED weighted to go close today - and he's also run well on right-handed tracks similar to Sandown - he gets the vote. The fav Mr Mole is talented, but is also a quirky and difficult ride and I'd want more than 3/1. The odds about BRICK RED are 9/2 (Bet Victor and Betfred) and that makes him the wager in this.
The final race on the card is a 3-mile Class 2 handicap chase and there is a lot of support for Unioniste who is now an unbackable 3/1 (you can find 7/2 being offered in short bursts). At the odds, for me the value is the 2013 Hennessey Gold Cup winner Triolo D'Alene at 18/1. He's done nothing wrong since that win yet the handicapper has dropped him 4lb to OR154 which gives him a great chance - he's certainly an eachway wager. The ground will not be in his favour, but this opposition looks beatable.
Unioniste will need a career-best to win this;
The ground will not be soft enough for Relax;
Count Guido Deiro didn't beat much LTO and is up 7lbs;
Bertie Boru may find his stamina stretched by this trip;
This race is no place for a novice chaser like Tinker Time;
Firm Order has never been a horse to rely on, and the ground may be too soft for him anyway;
Of those ahead of Triolo D'Alene in the betting, only What's Happening looks interesting as he ran well here LTO (he beat Emperor's Choice that day), and his OR131 rating looks fair. He also will enjoy the ground today and this shorter trip (than he faced LTO) will suit him. Odds of 12/1 with Ladbrokes look fair, but take those early.
Sandown 1:50 - BRICK RED, £5 eachway @ 9/2 (Betfred and Bet Victor)
Sandown 3:35 - TRIOLO D'ALENE, £5 eachway @ 18/1 (with Stan James quarter odds a place 1,2,3)