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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday 14 July 2013
There were some tremendous performances at Royal Ascot but, for me, the performance of the week came on Saturday from LETHAL FORCE. There is a tendency for ratings compilers to scoff at decent performances from long-odds runners who are clearly improving. When LETHAL FORCE beat Strong Suit at Newbury last season at the odds of 25/1 he showed a tremendous level of ability to beat a horse capable of earning a rating of 125+ and was only receiving 5lb. I rated that run at 123, whereas RPR gave him a rating of only 116. He was struck-into NTO so couldn’t repeat that form, and on his final appearance of the season he hated the heavy ground at Longchamps. For his seasonal debut, he ran a cracker despite probably needing the run at York when just failing to hold Society Rock. He was sure to come on for that run and a performance up to the level of last season’s win in the Hungerford Stakes would see him in the picture here. In hindsight, these things are easy to see but, in my book, he exceeded that form and ran to 125 on Saturday. We know the horse stays 7-furlongs and so a stiff 6-furlongs – such as the July Cup at Newmarket next month – will be a suitable target. What a tremendous purchase at just 8,500 Euros this horse was as a yearling.
Yesterday, Lethal Force ran right up to the rating I assigned him after his Royal Ascot win and scorched home to take the Group 1 July Cup in a track record time. Quite how he was allowed to start at odds of 9/2 is beyond me - the 3/1 fav Shea Shea is best at 5-furlongs in my opinion and his RPR123 rating for winning in Meydan was probably too generous by about 5lb. The 3yo Gale Force Ten was never a force over similar trips as a 2yo and has improved markedly as a 3yo when stepped-up to 7-furlongs and a mile (which, considering his dam Ronaldsay was best over 12-furlongs, is fairly obvious from the breeding), so I'm not sure why this one started the 4/1 2nd-fav.
Group 1 form is usually very consistent and when you can find such tremendous 9/2 wagers as this with rock-solid form lines, then there is no need to scrabble round the minor tracks plying the Class 5 & 6 dross.
All the best from Wayward Lad.
Monday 8 July 2013
The 1st set looked brutal and yet it was the shortest (in time duration) of the 3 sets at only 59 minutes. I was particularly impressed at Murray's focus at key points in the match, when he was able to press home his advantage. Without doubt, Djokovic's serve was not up to the usual standard. Going into the match he'd averaged 66% of his 1st-serve's in play, and 82% of those turned into winning points. In the final, while he hit 65% of 1st-serve's in (68 of 105) only 59% turned into winning points (40 of 68). Obviously, you have to factor in the quality of his opponent, and Murray was able to return shots in such a way as to push Djokovic into making unforced errors.
What now for Andy Murray? This was his 2nd Grand Slam success yet he's still well short of Djokovic's ATP Tour points score of 12,310. In order to take the Nr.1 spot he needs to be more successful on the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 circuit on which Djokovic has won 3 tournaments in the past 12 months, whereas Murray only won 1 (and was beaten by Djokovic when they met in another final). I can certainly see Murray winning Wimbledon again in 2014, and maybe even in 2015. He also plays well in Australia, where he's been a finalist 3 times and maybe at the next visit he can take the title. I can also see him being capable of retaining his US title. He's only 26 years old and should be able to maintain his position in tennis for another 2 or 3 years and win another 4 or 5 Grand Slams in the process.
Not a great display from my selection on Saturday, with Pastorius probably not appreciating the ground. It was another tremendous effort from All Kazeem. After he won at Royal Ascot I suggested he was capable of running to a rating of 123 and he proved that in winning the Coral-Eclipse on Saturday. Personally, I think he will still need to find another 3-5lb on that performance to succeed at Longchamps in October in the Arc De Triomphe when the ground could be against him.
Friday 5 July 2013
Saturday see's the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes over 10-furlongs at Sandown. My old fav this season Al Kazeem should run well in this, and he's won for me twice already this year. What I'm worried about tho' is that he's now had 3 proper races, and the last of them at Royal Ascot was a hard race. He only managed to beat Mukhadram a neck at Ascot over this trip and, even tho' he looked to have more in the tank then, I'd be happier if Al Kazeem had missed this race and waited for the King George at the end of July. Mukhadram could be considered the value wager being 8/1 with some layers, but he was all-out at Ascot and wont be given such free rein this time round. Declaration Of War, also a Royal Ascot winner, does not strike me as a Group 1 10-furlong horse and will probably be best when confined to a mile. The Fugue would have to be at the very top of her game to win this and she's one for the places as she has more than a few pounds to find to guarantee success. The 3yo colt Mars could be capable of a surprise if he's better than his Derby form (was beaten nearly 4-lengths into 6th behind Ruler Of The World), but I feel he's another horse that will prove best at a mile. That brings me to what looks undoubtedly the value horse in the race, PASTORIUS @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes (and 10/1 generally).
Yes, he ran a stinker in Singapore when last seen on the track on 19th May but, before that, he won the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Longchamps beating some solid top-class campaigners. In 2nd that day was Maxios who won the Group 1 Prix D'Ispahan NTO, and in 3rd was Dunaden who chased home St Nicholas Abbey at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. On that form, PASTORIUS should be much shorter in the market and I would have thought 7/2 was a more realistic assessment of his chance.
I'm having a 1pt win wager on PASTORIUS @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
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