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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 30 November 2018
Wednesday, 28 November 2018
Monday, 26 November 2018
Saturday, 24 November 2018
At Haydock the feature race the Betfair Chase at 3:00pm has attracted only 5 runners and although the Gold Cup 1st & 2nd meet again, I feel this is disappointing as the 3rd prize is over £21,000 and there's no guarantee that one of the main challengers will not complete which leaves the 2nd prize of £42,000 available. I tipped NATIVE RIVER to win the Gold Cup and he's been a favourite of mine for couple of seasons and I will not desert him now. I think Native River is a 5lb better horse than Might Bite and I cannot see him being beaten as he should be well up for this race. Odds of 11/4 look a bit of a bargain to me, and having stablemate Thistlecrack in the race to help force the pace puts me even more in favour of Native River - there will be no hiding place and Native River has plenty of winning form on similar ground that he will find at Haydock today.
There is an interesting 3m4f chase race at 12:40pm at Haydock and I'm surprised that BISHOPS ROAD is not the fav for this, he's the forecast fav in the Racing Post at 4/1, but has slipped in the betting to 11/2 this morning. He runs well at Haydock having won the Grand National trial here over this trip in 2016, and he was rated OR154 after that run. He's not the horse he was and he's slipped to OR135, but his form is not too bad and he only has 7 rivals, most of which have yet to prove they have the stamina for this. The market fav is Little Bruce based on his win in a Class 4 chase over 3-mile at Hexham LTO, but this race is an entirely differnt kettle of fish to that one. 'The market 2nd fav is Red Infantry, but his form is difficult to rate, but I do not think his win in March at Warwick warranted a 13lb hike in the handicap to OR132. Yes, BISHOPS ROAD with the benefit of Richard Johnson in the saddle looks a like winner in waiting and 11/2 looks fair value to me.
Haydock 12:40pm BISHOPS ROAD, £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally)
Saturday, 17 November 2018
The blog did well yesterday, looked at 3 races and came up with 2 winners in Bun Doran and Josies Orders, but the advised selection Lovely Job was very disappointing and finished out of the places. I can't explain that other than it's likely the horse did not want to be there on the day.
However, what a run from THE YOUNG MASTER, bold foot-perfect jumping showed he is back to his best and he looks set for a very good season and a Grand National bid next April must be on the cards.
Back to today and the feature race at Cheltenham is the BetVictor Gold Cup at 2:25pm. I looked at this race earlier in the week, and there are two horses that I think will be thereabouts at the finish: FRODON and BARON ALCO. The "good" ground will be no problem for Frodon as he has lots of winning form on similar, and if he can repeat his win here last January off OR154 (he runs off OR161 today) he could well take all the beating. However, possibly the best handicapped horse in the race is Baron Alco, who ran up against the talented Charbel LTO and just failed. That run was off the back of an 18-month break back to when he was 2nd at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival to Road To Respect (now rated OR161) so it is no surprise that he was unable to give a 1lb to that horse when beaten 6-lengths. Baron Alco could well be a 150+ horse, possibly 155+, and running off OR146.
The race is very competitive and there could be a surprise winner, but it is unlikely, and the winner is likely to come from the head of the market. There is not much between Rather Bee and Mr Whitaker, and of that pair I favour the latter mainly as he has more experience at this level.
My money will be on BARON ALCO @ 11/1.
In the 3m3f handicap chase at 1:50pm the one horse that jumps out at me is the in-form COGRY. He runs off OR139 but I reckon he's capable of winning off that rating, and the biggest issue for me will be his stamina and I just hope it lasts out. Rock The Kasbah will be thereabouts if he handles Cheltenham but he didn't seem to enjoy the place when he last ran here 2 years ago as a novice chaser and he best form has been on "flat" tracks like Sandown. If the formbook works out then Singlefarmpayment should win, but he's failed to follow-through so many times now when he should have won it's tough to keep putting the money down on him.
Friday, 16 November 2018
Saturday, 3 November 2018
Unfortunately, the Good (good-to-firm in places) ground at Wetherby has meant there's a lot of non-runners today and the betting markets will likely be very fluid all day. There in an interesting Class 3 handicap chase at 1:30pm with just 6 runners now and it may be worth taking a chance on the bottom-weight Absolutely Dylan who made all on his recent chasing debut and could do nothing more than win easily against very poor opposition. However, we do know he jumps well, and he likes to lead, also he's fit to race and there's every likelihood he will improve for that run. Current odds of 11/4 look worthy of a wager, as he could easily be a 140+ chaser in the making as there appears nothing at all special in this race.
The big disappointment of the day is the feature race at Wetherby, the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase, which now has only 4 runners. Regular readers of the blog will have taken my advice on Tuesday evening when I put my blog online and taken the odds of 8/1 about BLACK CORTON. Right now he's the race fav at just 13/8, and it is difficult to see the horse losing this afternoon with just 3 rivals . I know several of you went in at 8/1 and we are now looking very smug.
Racing at Ascot is a lot more competitive as the ground there is perfect - Good. The novice handicap chase at 1:50pm looks interesting as I'm a big fan of STERNRUBIN and if he can get to the level he was at over hurdles - he loves Ascot and won the Ladbroke (handicap) hurdle off OR134 and the William Hill (Listed) handicap hurdle off OR142 - then you have to think his current chase rating of OR137 is very lenient and odds of 9/2 could be generous.
In the feature race at Ascot at 3:35pm, a Grade 3 handicap chase over 3-mile, I do not think the odds of 7/2 about last years winner Go Conquer are very generous as his form tailed-off last season. He's 9yo now and I think his best days are behind him, but not so the top-weight TRAFFIC FLUID who was very highly tried last season and saw his handicap mark drop from OR156 to OR140 which allowed him to win a Grade 2 handicap chaseat Cheltenham in April. He ran well recently in his seasonal debut running 2nd at Chepstow, and I can see him going really well off OR149. Odds of 5/1 are not great though but when you look at the opposition you realise he might well start less than that.
Not a day for having big money on, and I think I will sit on my wager at 8/1 on BLACK CORTON and watch the rest of the day with interest.