Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 30 December 2021
Sunday, 26 December 2021
Merry Christmas to readers of the blog, and let's hope today is a good one! It's the Boxing Day blog and there is a real feast of horseracing today. Big days like this give choosy punters a host of opportunities to find a winner and make a profit.
There are going to be plenty of changed plans and so a fair-few non-runners, so review your planned wagers as some races could end-up being very easy to find the winner in. There are meetings at Kempton, Wetherby, Sedgefield, Market Rasen, Fontwell, Huntingdon and Wincanton, as well as Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal in Ireland - so there is no need to just stick to the major, competitive races.
Some people reading this blog will be focusing on the feature race of the day, which is the "King George" Grade 1 chase at Kempton. This race takes a truly exceptional horse to win this aged 9yo or older; the last two horses to do that were Cue Card aged 9yo in 2015, and Kauto Star aged 11yo in 2011. As such, I have to go against the 9yo's Clan Des Obeaux, Frodon and Lostintranslation. The most likely winners of this race - in my opinion - are Chantry House and Minella Indo. At the official ratings, Minella Indo is head & shoulders above this field on OR175, and with 1st-time cheekpieces applied odds of 4/1 (and 9/2 with William Hill) look massive. The only "doubt" is that when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Minella Indo showed form perhaps 15lb better than he's shown in any other race - hence why he started at 9/1 for that race. Trainer de Bromhead does not send many across the Irish Sea, but when he does we should take notice.
The other race I love on Boxing Day is the "Rowland Meyrick" handicap chase at Wetherby. There is a strong field for this Grade 3 chase over 3-miles, and again the majority of winners are aged no older than 8yo (the last "older winner being the 10yo According To Pete at 33/1 in 2011). So I'm happy to omit Top Ville Ben (9yo), Lake View Lad (11yo), Takingrisks (12yo), and Windsor Avenue (9yo) from calculations. This is a step-up in trip from 2m4f for Silver Hallmark, and I think odds of 5/2 are too short to consider him for this race. For me, it's Good Boy Bobby who was only just touched-off LTO at Newcastle. I also considered Empire Steel as trainer Sandy Thomson only has 2 runners today, both at Wetherby (the other is The Ferry Master in the chase at 1:00pm), but the form for this horse is difficult to assess. The Ladbroke Trophy Chase winner Cloudy Glen usually goes best fresh, and that win was a tough race for him.
There is an interesting mares' novice chase at Wincanton at 12:53pm over 2m4f; with just 6 runners. The fav is Precious Eleanor, but I think this one can be opposed as she's a bit one-paced. Trainer Nicky Henderson entered 3 for this race, and sends chase debutant Fantastic Lady who is well regarded by the stable. Jockey Tom Cannon has the ride, and he is 2 wins from 7 rides for Henderson in the past 5 years. This is more of a speculative selection, but as Henderson has only one other runner at Wincanton with a 7lb claimer riding, there may be something in this.
I love having wagers in 3-mile hurdle races as they can be very weak contests. At Fontwell at 12:32pm 3m2f hurdle race looks like a good opportunity. Khan won at Lingfield over 2m7f beating subsequent winner Dolphin Square (who had Certainly Red well behind when they met at Newbury). Khan was 3rd to the fav Not At Present when they met LTO, and on better terms and can reverse the placings this time. Odds of 7/2 are freely available (4/1 with Bet365).
Friday, 10 December 2021
Saturday, 4 December 2021
What a cracking day of horseracing we have this Saturday: Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby; it's almost too much to contemplate. On busy days like this, the intelligent punter holds the upper-hand, we don't have to wager - we can pick & choose our targets. What you have to watch out for is there have been a lot of non-runners declared.
Sunday, 28 November 2021
Friday, 26 November 2021
We have one of the best chase handicaps of the jumps season this weekend in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury. Always run at a strong pace, and always a race that produces good winners; and this year looks like being one of the better editions.
Before I go on: I discussed the race and my thoughts on the likely winner on the WRAP (What's Racing About Podcast) hosted by Peter Bell: here is the link
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1811838/9615280 The plan is to have a chat with Peter maybe once or twice a month, and to try and find a few decent winners and entertain the listener at the same time.
Sunday, 21 November 2021
A great result yesterday, with JERSEY BEAN - advised in the morning at 9/1 - drifting out to an SP of 16/1 (I just missed 18/1 about a minute before the off). Those odds were a bit daft considering the horse had everything in his favour: trip, ground, fitness, a course winner, and he's a prominent runner too. My morning thought was that he'd go off around 7/1, and with 4-places available from some bookies in this 11-runner race, I just could not see how having a wager on him eachway would not result in small profit at least. This is why - in my opinion - it pays to think about how you wager: always remember you are in control and you should ONLY have a wager when you think the odds are in your favour. Add that JB was Oliver Sherwood's only runner yesterday, and 4 of his last 8 runners have won or placed in the past week, and there was no reason that this horse - who has improved with nearly every run he's had over fences - should have been 16/1.
Saturday, 20 November 2021
Friday, 12 November 2021
With a planned attendance at Cheltenham on Saturday for me, my first Cheltenham race meeting since March 2020, I have written the weekend blog earlier than usual as on Saturday morning I will be driving from Brighton to Cheltenham. If you see me there, be sure to say hello.
Saturday, 6 November 2021
We have some top-class racing from Aintree and Wincanton today, with supporting meetings at Fontwell and Kelso over the jumps. I have a stack of horses from my alert list running today, and I will try and mention as many as possible that have winning chances.
At Aintree, the 3-mile handicap hurdle at 1:08pm brings us the seasonal debut of Remastered, and I can see this horse having a big season - but not over hurdles. He was just below top-class last season but then he only had 4 chase runs and there's loads of potential in him.
At 2:15pm, we have the feature race in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase over 2m5f over the National fences. Of the 13 that go to post, there are 2 on my alert list: Senior Citizen (who I tipped to win LTO) and the exciting Midlands National winner Time To Get Up. I don't think Aintree will suit Time To Get Up, and this trip is too short for him, but he's on a great handicap mark of OR144. I think Senior Citizen will be tough to beat in this race, as he ran well over C&D in April coming 3rd off OR137 and so OR139 and being in better form suggests he has a winning chance. There's plenty of 4/1 about, with Bet365 going 9/2 and Bet Victor at 5/1, and odds of 5/1 look generous given the lack of opposition.
Later in the afternoon at 3:20pm, from my alert list is the 6yo Wilde About Oscar, and he may not be the best-off at the weights in this race on known form to-date, but he could end up once of the best staying hurdlers by the end of the season.
At Wincanton, the feature race is the Badger Beer Handicap Chase over 3-mile at 3:00pm. Last year, the 1st-2 were separated by a short-head and they return to do battle again: El Presente and Potterman. The fav for the race is Cap Du Nord, who is a horse who runs well but rarely finishes in front: on form, he should win, but will he? Potterman always goes best when fresh, and he wasn't fresh last season in this having had a run at Chepstow a few weeks earlier, so this year he looks well-set for a bold run, and odds of 12/1 (4-places) with Bet Victor looks generous in this 13-runner race.
At Kelso, from my alert list is Doyen Breed, a 6yo with Sandy Thomson, who looks better than average and one to keep an eye on. He runs in the 3m2f hurdle at 1:35pm and he ran a stonker over C&D last season, so he should be capable of winning this. Odds of 5/2 are fair as he could easily start at 7/4 in this race.
I didn't put up a winner last weekend: and I would like to rectify that this weekend - as it's my birthday weekend: I'm 62yo on Monday 8th. So, my main selection is DOYEN BREED at 5/2 (available generally). Trainer, Alan King is doing really well and he could have a cracking day of racing: so I'm also having a small eachway double on SENIOR CITIZEN at Aintree POTTERMAN at Wincanton. Bet Victor offer 5/1 on Senior Citizen (4-places) and 11/1 on Potterman (4-places) and I'm on.
Sunday, 31 October 2021
Is it time to confine Cyrname to the 2m5f trip at Ascot? Or do we just forget about him altogether? There is obviously something wrong with him either physically or mentally, and (as he qualifies for "veterans" races on 1st January 2022 when he becomes a 10yo) maybe it's time to stop thinking of him as the "best chaser in training"? As for Shan Blue, this was looking like a very exciting winning performance until he fell at the 3rd-last fence. If he goes to Newbury for the Ladbrokes Trophy on OR148 then he must have one helluva chance. And we managed to nick a few quid with the 4-place eachway wager on Mighty Thunder who plodded-on to be 4th: he was always going to finish the race and I did expect him to beat Clondaw Castle (who isn't a graded chaser given the way he was swept aside by Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree in April), but 4th was good enough.
Over at Ascot, there was a cracking day of racing. Unfortunately, after noting Nassalam on the blog, I didn't put him down as a selection, and he only went and won. I don't think he's the sort of chaser who could be graded class, but he should continue to be competitive in handicaps. And then I was disappointed in myself for not being on Soaring Glory in the handicap hurdle, as he was on my alert list after winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, and I think we can draw a line through his run in the Supreme Hurdle at the Festival in March. This horse looks like he's going places to me.
My selection Editeur Du Gite set a punishing pace in the 2m1f Listed handicap chase, and had nothing left to give from 2-out, and then badly blundered at the final fence losing his rider. This was a tremendous effort though, and on a left-handed track he will be worth following NTO. It was an intelligent ride by Bridget Andrews on the eventual winner Amoola Gold, as she sat well-off the pace and let this field run itself ragged on the stamina-sapping ground.
Saturday, 30 October 2021
The first big Saturday of the jumping season, with some top-class racing at Wetherby and Ascot. At Wetherby, the ground will likely be more soft than good-to-soft as there are showers forecast through the day. The main focus will be on the Charlie Hall Chase (G2) at 3:05pm run over 3-miles.
The race-fav is last years winner Cyrname, and if he decides to turn-up then he should easily win this race - but will he come to the party? With odds of 7/4 available, I'd be tempted to bet on 2 in this race: Cyrname at 7/4 and another, just in case. Next best at the race conditions is Shan Blue who won over C&D at this meeting (on the Friday) last year when taking the novice race. He will need to settle better than he has to be involved in this race, and he may be one for another day. So, I'm pushing the boat out and going for the Scottish National winner Mighty Thunder: there's odds of 40/1 available, and Bet365 go 18/1 for 4-places, which looks massive to me.
Earlier on the card at Wetherby, the Mares' hurdle over 2-mile at 1:55pm could well go to Zambella who looks chucked-in back over hurdles in the conditions of this Listed race. Odds of 11/2 (available generally) look fair to me.
The Ascot meeting is one of my early season favourites as the track is a fair one in my opinion and has a good standard of races. The opening novice chase over 2m3f could be one for the notebook: some great prospects in this and one from my alert list if the Gary Moore trained Nassalam.
I will also be looking forward to watching the Listed handicap over 2m1f at 2:45pm: this looks an absolute cracker on paper. Gary Moore could well be in the winners' enclosure again with Editeur Du Gite who looks on the upgrade and well-handicapped on OR140 and I expected this one to be the fav for this race, so odds of 7/1 (there's been a big moved for the Venetia Williams trained Frero Banbou) look very attractive, especially as Skybet go 4-places eachway.
The London Gold Cup Handicap Chase at 3:20pm over 3-miles was won by Vinndication in 2019, and he goes for a repeat today. If he's in the same form as when he chased home Cyrname at Wetherby in the "Charlie Hall" on this day last year, then there's no reason he can't win this again. He may have most to fear from old adversary Jerrysback, who goes well at Ascot and is probably best caught 1st-time-out. At his best, Jerrysback is much better than OR138 and if Hobbs has him firing then he could appear late on the scene and snatch victory. Odds of 7/1 for 4-places look fair to me.
Sunday, 24 October 2021
No luck at all yesterday, with a poor effort from Jersey Bean, and while Fortescue did run well - and I thought he held a winning chance with a fine jump at the 3rd-last fence, his effort petered-out and both probably will come on for the run.
Saturday, 23 October 2021
After hitting the post a couple of times in the first week back for the blog, we hit the back of the net with the only selection last Saturday with Senior Citizen winning at 9/2. Let's see if we can follow-up this weekend back at Cheltenham.
We have some terrific races, and the Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f at 2:20pm catches my attention. From my alert list there's Jersey Bean: a 3x winner last season, including here at Cheltenham LTO. This will be only his 10th chase run, and he will be running on his preferred "good" ground - he is sure to be thereabouts. Another I like is Storm Control, who regular readers of the blog will know I tipped a couple of times last season without success. He won twice last season, both wins here including a C&D win in November, and he could take some pegging back as he likes to try and make-all. Top-weight Cloth Cap usually needs his seasonal debut, and I'm not sure that he's up to winning a handicap off OR156, that's a big ask. The Irish challenger Definite Plan needs to prove his stamina to take this, and I think this is too big a step up for Minella Bobo. For me, Jersey Bean at 8/1 (Bet Victor and PaddyPower) looks the best value for an each-way wager should Storm Control falter late-on in the race. I do like Storm Control, and Kerry Lee has her horses bouncing - she's 3 from 3 in October and this is her only runner today, and maybe I'm overlooking the obvious winner.
There is an interesting race at Kelso at 3:19pm, a Class 2 limited handicap chase over 3m2f, with just 6 runners. The 11yo's Vintage Clouds and Big River both usually need a run, as does Chapel Stile, and while Empire De Maulde is race-fit I don't think the horse is well handicapped on OR132. Dingo Dollar is a horse that has let his supporters down many times, and I really do not think he's capable of winning a handicap off OR151 if all the other runners in the race run to form. That leaves Fortescue: he's a 7yo who has won 5 of his 9 chase races. Trainer Henry Daly makes his first visit to Kelso in over 5 years and this is his only runner today. He's had a couple of winners at Perth, so a long trip in the horse-box is something he's capable of. The horse jumps well, likes be to be in the van, and odds of 4/1 look proper value as I'd have him the 2/1 fav for this race.
That's my planned wagers today: the 2-mile chase at 3:30pm at Cheltenham looks a bit tough to find value, but I expect a good run from Phil Hobbs' runner Leapaway at odds of 11/2
Saturday, 16 October 2021
Friday, 15 October 2021
Saturday, 9 October 2021
At Chepstow, you always have to take notice of Paul Nicholls' and what he's running. In the 1:50pm he has Flic On Voyou who has run at this meeting for the last couple of seasons, winning last year, and btn a neck the year before. This horse will be fit and ready today, and odds of 13/2 (William Hill) look generous and there's plenty of 6/1 around. For the ultra-cautious, Skybet offer 4-places and 11/2 which looks a shoo-in for an eachway thief as only 9 go to post!
Earlier this summer, I made a case for Real Steel being on a horses-to-follow list, as I think his rating of OR154 is very lenient considering what he's done in Ireland. I think his best trip is <2m7f, so with this race today being just 90 yards short of 3-mile he could be stretched. However, he's a 160+ chaser in my book and if his recent wind surgery has worked he could be chucked in today. He's giving away a lot of weight in this handicap, especially to Cap Du Nord who looks well treated on OR138, and who will be running on from halfway, and his odds of 9/1 (Sky & Hills go 4-places) are attractive for eachway punters.
In the handicap chase at 4:05pm, I really cannot understand how Paint The Dream has only won once over fences in 10 starts - he's on my alert list. Another on my alert list is Manofthemountain and this gelding could be the one to be on at this trip. Janika last won at Exeter as a 6yo almost 2yrs ago, but it was the Haldon Gold Cup. Unfortunately, he's not shown similar form since then, but this is a significant drop in class. For me, the value in this race is Manofthemountain at 9/2 which is available generally.
My wagers today will all be Chepstow:
Saturday, 11 September 2021
The review of the Alert List continues, and after the 8yo's now it is the 7yo's. There's a lot of them, so I may split this into two parts.
TEQANY - looked a very interesting hurdler when pushing Sceau Royal all the way in the Elite Hurdle last November. He hasn't raced again since over hurdles, but has had a successful summer on the flat and so is race-fit for an autumn hurdling campaign. Races today on the flat at Haydock (12Sept)
McFABULOUS - not quite top-level as a 3-mile hurdler, but may well hit that level as a chaser. Looks an exciting novice chase prospect for 2021-22.
IMPERIAL ALCAZAR - started at 11/2 for the 3-mile Pertemps Final Hurdle and was struck-into mid-race so was a disappointing 16th of 22. Ignore that run, as his previous win in Jan suggested he had lots more to come. Likely to go novice chasing and looks exciting.
ESCARIA TEN - ran 3rd in the NH Chase for Novices behind Galvin, but I reckon with a better ride he'd have won as came to challenge a tad too early. Is Grade 1 chase potential this season.
UP THE STRAIGHT - he has met a couple of good ones so has come 2nd 3x in 6 chase races. His OR138 rating looks fair and he's probably capable of a lot better than that and may need to step-up to 2m6f.
LOCK'S CORNER - a winner of 4 chase races, his best performance to date was his win at Kempton over 2m4f in Nov-20 and in my opinion he goes best right-handed. A rating of OR142 looks fair.
EMPIRE STEEL - could be anything. Was disappointing at Cheltenham and that run is best ignored, but has a lot of potential, and an OR140 rating looks very fair.
HAPPYGOLUCKY - went into my notebook when winning at Stratford on 29-Oct, the ground was possibly a tad too soft at the Festival when 2nd in the "Ultima", but he won well at Aintree. Now rated OR157, if he can win a handicap from this rating then he's likely graded level, and I think that's where his future lies in 2021-22.
SHAN BLUE - won a couple of Grade-1 novice chases at Sandown and Kempton, and perhaps right-handed courses suit him best. Starts off OR150, and he could be a handicap snip off that mark.
SULLY D'OC AA - it was brave of Anthony Honeyball to go to the Punchestown Festival in April and win with this horse, but the handicapper hit him with a 10lb hike to OR147. Trips of 2m-2m3f look best for him and he could be an exciting horse to follow.
ESPOIR DE ROMAY - he went into my alert list after winning his chase debut on 01Nov, and maybe he should have gone for a good handicap after that as he easily won a Class 3 in March and was going very well at Aintree in a Grade 1 chase when falling. Now rated OR160, handicaps are beyond him but he could be exceptional.
ELDORADO ALLEN - after winning his 1st-2 novice chases, he went on my alert list but hasn't won in 4 runs since. However, he has been highly-tried and maybe Tizzard may not set his heights so high this season, and a step-up to 2m4f+ could see him in the winners enclosure.
SANDYMOUNT ROSE - was entered on my alert list as a 3-mile hurdler in Dec20, after chasing-home Catchmeifyoucan (who won again on 27Nov), and she duly won her next couple of 3-mile hurdle races. She has since won her chase debut, and she could be a money-spinner.
ESPOIR DE GUYE - When the mud is flying, Venetia Williams horses are in their element, and I will be hoping the ground is worse than soft when this one is running. A couple of wins at Ascot, he will enjoy the right-handed London circuits.
DEMACHINE - could be a very interesting handicap horse as lightly-raced and his novice season was very promising. No disgrace being beaten by Remastered at level-weights in Feb, and we've not seen him since; so OR142 could be very lenient.
Overall, there are 46 x 7yo's on my alert list, and I am very hopeful of a great season for the blog. I will not post the names of any more - as I have to have some edge over other tipsters and the betting market - so you will find out who are the remainder as-and-when they run. So you will have to read the blog!
All the best.
Sunday, 8 August 2021
The 2020-21 jumps season was a bit of a strange one due to the lack of crowds (due to Covid) and too many horses being kept at home in the stables rather than racing at the tracks. During the season, I tried making a few suggested wagers, but I never rely got into the groove. However, I did manage and maintain my horse alert list and I've started going through that list and pruning it and adding some extra notes. I'm going to post a few of those notes on a band of horses that I think will do some good things this coming season: it isn't a "horses to follow" list, more a "don't overlook if running" list.
As usual, I will be writing my weekend blog, which will start from 9th October with the jumps meeting at Chepstow. The is likely to be a review of the weekends racing, and from Sunday 5th December there will be suggestions for a portfolio of wagers for the Cheltenham Festival in March 2022. The Cheltenham Portfolio has worked well over the past couple of seasons and hopefully that will continue.
There are no horses older than 8yo on my alert list: by the time they become 9yo they are usually well-exposed and unlikely to find much more improvement. My "bread & butter" is 3-mile-plus handicap chases, and I'm looking for horses that have improvement in them and are well-handicapped. These are the only 8yo's on my alert list.
CANELO: won the Rowland Meyrick at Warwick on Boxing Day, and held his form well. Forget his Grand National effort: 3-mile-plus on Good-to-Soft ground is what he needs, and he ran a career-best on 06Mar21.
DISCORAMA: was 3rd in the 2020 Ultima handicap chase off OR148, he was then aimed at the Grand National. He is now rated OR146 and that looks fair: he's one for an autumn handicap up to 3m4f.
JERSEY BEAN: a hurdle winner over 3-mile (which is always a good indicator), he jumps well, stays well and like to make-all. He's best on good ground - avoid when racing on soft ground.
MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN: a winner of 5 of his 9 chase starts at trips from 2m4f to 3-mile. Ran a career-best LTO and starts 2021-22 on OR144 and that may not stop him winning again.
MILAN NATIVE: winner of the 2020 Kim Muir handicap, after winning his 2020-21 seasonal debut he went a bit off-the-boil. He no looks well handicapped to win his seasonal debut.
MILLINER: good 3-mile hurdlers are as rare as hen's teeth: and this one looks well-handicapped as he's dropped to OR123 (from OR126) after a good 4th in the Pertemps Final over 3-mile which was only his 6th race. If he goes chasing he could be very interesting.
NO GETAWAY: a half-brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur, he will probably be best at 3-mile-plus. So far he's been kept to 2m4f, but he won well at that trip at Sandown. He is slow, so soft/heavy ground is needed.
REAL STEEL: ignore his Gold Cup run in 2020, as he's no 3-mile-plus chaser. Over 2m4f - 2m6f he could be well-in as (after an indifferent debut season with Paul Nicholls) he's dropped to OR154 which could make him a "Paddy Power" handicap chance.
REMASTERED: displayed his chasing promise when winning a Grade-2 in February; he was found lacking in the NH Chase over 3m6f, but maybe the ground was too quick for him. Best on soft/heavy ground, a wet autumn could see him line-up at Newbury for the Ladbroke Trophy off OR146.
SENIOR CITIZEN: starts 2021-22 on OR134 which was his last winning mark. Appears best after a good break over 2m4f-2m5f; he met a well-handicapped horse in the Topham Handicap at Aintree and looks well-handicapped.
TIME TO GET UP: he looks very exciting. Only had 4 chase races, and won the Midlands National over 4m2f on his latest run. Still only on OR144, and he could be a Welsh National winner, before taking the big one at Aintree.
VINNDICATION: let's be honest, he's not a Grade-1 chase, but when chasing home Cyrname at Wetherby he showed that he's not far off. Was joint-fav for the Ladbroke Trophy on the back of that run, and he would have gone close but for unseating his rider 5-out when going well. He looks primed for that race again - maybe going straight there this time - and off OR159 he could go close.