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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 12 November 2020

Friday 13th November 2020

Despite some questions on twitter, I stand by my selection  FANION D'ESTRUVAL  in the 2-mile handicap chase todat at 1:50pm at Cheltenham.  

I think the Venetia Williams' trained horse looks well-treated on OR150 as the last time we saw him, which was only his 2nd chase in this country, he started the 6/4 fav in a tough novice chase. I think that he could be (just could be) 160+ and racing off OR150 today he may be thrown-in.

Saturday's racing is an absolute belter of a day.  Not only do we have the "Paddy Power" handicap chase at Cheltenham, but we also have some great races at Uttoxeter and Wetherby, and if I get chance I will take a look at those before the day. Let's start with the feature race, and with 17-runners going to post it could take some working out which is the winner.  The fav is Saint Sonnet, trained by Paul Nicholls who - tho' having won this race a couple of times in the past - sends so many to contest it his stats are poor. Having watched him in run in the Marsh Novices Chase last March in the Festival, where he was well behind Mister Fisher, he's going to have to have improved some in the summer to justify being the fav. I reckon the Nicky Henderson trained MISTER FISHER is a much better proposition, as he definitely stayed the trip better that day and soft ground on Saturday will make this a true test. Colin Tizzard has a couple in the race, and both look worthy of being in the places: Slate House fell in this race when going well off OR147 and then won his next 2 races, he also stays 3-mile so wont be far away. And The Russian Doyen recently ran in a hurdle race where he did well and went into my notebook, he was 4th in the Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival in 2019 behind A Plus Tard. Running off OR141 that day he looks a handicap snip on OR138 as he went lame in his only other chase run since that festival 4th, and we know he's fit and well.

At the odds, I'm taking MISTER FISHER @ 11/2 with BetVictor and with William Hill offering 6-places at 5th odds a place, the 16/1 about THE RUSSIAN DOYEN looks a decent play.

Earlier on the card at 1:05pm there's a 3m1f handicap chase for amateur riders and top-weight KILFILUM CROSS could take some beating. Twice he's been 2nd in the "Kim Muir" handicap at the Festival and with rider Alex Edwards in the saddle he should get round safely.  The main danger will likely be Bermeo with likely only 9st 7lb to carry if jockey Angus Chelala can claim his 7lb in full. That will mean Kilfilum Cross is giving 34lb away to this horse, which will certainly tell after the final fence, but Bermeo is a slow old horse and he may find himself too far off the pace to catch up the leaders. 

I will take a look at the hurdle races on Saturday's Cheltenham card a bit later on. 

Wednesday 11 November 2020

Thursday 12th November

 We have some cracking racing this weekend with a return to Cheltenham, and a meeting that I very much like to attend - but this year, I will have to be content with watching on the tv.

I'm taking an early look to see if there's any antepost value in the markets, and the Class 2, Handicap Chase on Friday over 2-miles may be an opportunity, as I think the top-weight Magic Saint is going to struggle with 12st to carry in this field.  With On The Slopes, Beat The Judge and Ballywood all exposed LTO and needing to find improvement to win, and Born Survivor perhaps lacking speed over this trip (he's usually seen over 20f), and Azzuri and Full Glass looking outclassed (although Azzuri races for the first time since winning in April 2019 off a rating lower than the OR132 he won off that day); we are left with FANION D'ESTRUVAL and Eamon An Cnoic. Personally, I think the Venetia Williams' trained Fanion D'Estruval looks well-treated on OR150 as gthe last time we saw him, which was only his 2nd chase in this country, was when 5th behind eventual Arkle 4th Global Citizen and his stablemate Rouge Vif - and Fanion started the 6/4 fav that day, so we know who his stablelads thought was the better horse! As for Eamon An Cnoic, is no world-beater, but he's a horse that likes Cheltenham and is fairly consistent - and he's also had wind surgery, so could show improvement, but he does want it soft. At the odds, as I write FANION D'ESTRUVAL is 6/1 with Bet365 is a steal for a horse that could be (just could be) 160+ and racing off OR150.

Wednesday 4 November 2020

Wednesday 4th November

Another complete blank from the selections last Saturday, which was really disappointing.  I'm going to try and get a winner on the board this weekend, and I may leave the more competitive chase handicaps alone, and go for something a bit more modest.

 There is plenty of scope for a wager over the next few days, and Thursday's jumps meetings at Newbury and Market Rasen offer some opportunities.  At Market Rasen, the 3-mile (Listed) Mares' Chase should go to the fav CASABLANCA MIX. Nicky Henderson does well at this track and the likely only decent opposition will come from the 10yo My Old Gold, but Nicky Richards does not have a good record at this track in non-handicap chases. Henderson could well take the Mares' maiden hurdle with Ballingers Corner as he's well aware of the capability of the main danger Temple High as he trained it last season. Whether he can make it 3 wins from his 3 runners here with Captain Woodie in the Novice handicap chase is a bit more debateable. 

One horse I am going to have a wager on is at Newbury in the Beginners' Chase at 1:30pm over 2m6f, and that's ONE FOR THE TEAM.  Nick Williams has his horses running well, and he's only sent 2 chasers to Newbury in the past 5 seasons and 1 won. Actually, One For The Team won here over 3-mile in a hurdle race last February so likes the track. And he went well on his seasonal debut over an inadequate trip. The hot-fav is The Big Breakaway, but I'm not sure about Tizzards horse and he may need another season to show his best form.