Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 27 March 2022
Saturday, 19 March 2022
Friday, 18 March 2022
Thursday, 17 March 2022
Back in the game!
After a difficult opening day, what a way to bounce back - ENERGUMENE romped home an easy winner of the QMCC, and I have been plugging this horses chances for nearly two weeks. This is what wrote on 5th March: Mullins would not race this absolute top-class 2-mile chaser in the QMCC if he thought he had no chance of reversing the places of the Ascot race, and the QMCC trip and Cheltenham could suit him well. Odds of 4/1 (NRNB) are massive about a horse who - without Shishkin - would be about 1/3 odds-on for this race. I was on ENERGUMENE at 4/1, and again at 7/2 - this was my biggest wager on a horse since I tipped Cue Card for the Ryanair Chase which he won in 2013: that's how confident I was.
Tuesday, 15 March 2022
The less said about the opening day, the better, It was not the best of starts to the Festival for the blog. I completely misread the form of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and thought the Henderson pair were overrated - wrong! Then in the Arkle, the answer was there all the time - Edwardstone - how on earth did I miss that one?
I went for several in the Ultima handicap, but only Fantastikas gave us a race, but he was under a hard-drive from before 2-out and faded into 7th. There was no denying Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle, but this performance was no better than last year when you have OR153 rated Epatante in 2nd and Zanahiyr in 3rd - the top of tree of the hurdle division are a poor bunch.
Onto Wednesday, and what can bring us back into the game? It is not going to be the odds-on Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.
The Brown Advisory Novices Chase at 2:10pm looks more interesting. The Nicholls-trained Bravemansgame is a worthy fav and odds of 3/1 look fair value to me. He stays the trip and looks solid. With several having questions on stamina (L'Homme Presse) or on a recovery mission (Capodanno and Fury Road), the obvious challengers are Ahoy Senor and Beacon Edge - and I favour the latter. Beacon Edge does relish the 3-mile trip and should improve on his LTO 2nd to Farouk D'Alene when conceding that one 7lb, and the ground should favour him too - odds of 12/1 look eachway value.
My main wager of the day, if not the week, is in the Champion Chase at 3:30pm. We all know that when they met at Ascot in January, Shishkin beat Energumene. This time I reckon the places will be reversed. It is a shorter trip (by about 200 yards) and I'm hoping that by the time they reach the final fence, ENERGUMENE will hold a winning advantage. I will be upfront: this is my biggest wager on a race at Cheltenham since Cue Card won the Ryanair Chase, and I am confident that in Energumene I will be on the winner.
No other races on the card interest me.
My advised wagers:
Monday, 14 March 2022
Saturday, 12 March 2022
Wednesday, 9 March 2022
One of the great betting races of the festival; the Ultima is a race I love to target and I managed to find the winner in Beware The Bear in 2019 (tipped at 20/1 on the Sunday before the race) and The Conditional in 2020. The race requires stamina, pace, and usually a progressive profile. Last year, the 11yo Vintage Clouds threw all the trends in the bin to make-all and win; so use trends wisely - they are not the be all & end all. Vintage Clouds won because he was well handicapped after a couple of poor runs, and his trainer capitalized on that by getting him back to his peak for one last top race. There was also a lot of horses with unproven stamina, and Vintage Clouds was absolutely guaranteed to stay the trip.
That's what you need to focus on in this race, stamina. That and horses that have shown good form and are improving - 75% of those that finish in the 1st-4 are carrying 11st or more