Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday 30 November 2013
Friday 29 November 2013
Thursday 28 November 2013
Saturday 23 November 2013
Right now, I rate his performance of winning the Betfair Chase equal to that of Bobs Worth winning the last Cheltenham Gold Cup; basically I rate both efforts at 174. As far as recent staying chasers go, 174 is 2lb better than both Tidal Bay and Long Run at their best. By my reckoning, 174 would have seen CUE CARD beat Syncronised 6+ lengths in the 2012 Gold Cup. I feel a bit sorry for Long Run as he's been very highly tried thru'out his young life, he's only an 8yo, and is perhaps 15lb below his best now and in decline. He deserves an honourable retirement having more than fulfilled his promise and paid his dues. Silviniaco Conti is short of Gold Cup class by about 5lb. By coincidence, the previous time CUE CARD and Silviniaco Conti met as novice chasers, the "gap" between them was 5lb with CUE CARD the superior horse. There is no guarantee that CUE CARD will repeat this effort in the Gold Cup in March, but he does love Cheltenham and that is a huge positive. Of course, Bobs Worth also loves Cheltenham, but his effort in the Betfair Chase was lacklustre. Whether he would have been able to come from behind and catch CUE CARD last March had that one been leading over the final couple of fences (had he gone for the Gold Cup instead of the Ryanair Chase) is - in my opinion - debatable. Then again, Cheltenham is a stiffer course than Haydock, and the Gold Cup is a couple of furlongs further (there is some debate that the trip at Haydock was actually 3m1f or, more likely, just 3-mile). Whatever, trainer Nicky Henderson has one helluva job getting Bobs Worth back on track, and he'll likely need at least 2 runs before March to show he's the horse he was last March.
As a betting man, the horse that is "value" to take from the Betfair Chase is DYNASTE. I was very impressed at the way he was brought gently, but menacingly, into the race on the 2nd circuit by Tom Scudamore. Remember, this horse won the Feltham Novices Chase on the same card as the King George last Boxing Day, so we know he handles that track and stays the trip well - and he has improved about 10lb since then. Is there some improvement to come? Probably, as his best form is on Good-to-Soft ground (not the soft/heavy it was yesterday). We also know the horse loves Cheltenham, with his only poor run there when flopping in the World Hurdle (that was on good ground). I'd say he has a good chance of running CUE CARD close on Boxing Day and odds of 5/1 look fair as, other than CUE CARD, there is nothing else likely to race that can beat him. I'd certainly expect DYNASTE to be more likely to stay the Gold Cup trip than CUE CARD, and the 16/1 available with Betfred for the Gold Cup looks an eachway steal. There are no dangers lurking in Ireland as both Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant are already shown to be not good enough.
My selections yesterday were disappointing. VIVA COLONIA ran the best of the pair, but was nowhere near the level of performance I expected. Perhaps the drop in trip exposed his lack of speed to be competitive at 2-mile. Another of my alert horses, Saved By John, ran well and showed improved form; but by running so unrestrained in the first mile must have cost him plenty of energy and I'd say cost him the race. If he can be taught to settle then he's possibly a 145+ performer. As for CHAC DU CADRAN, he had a stinker! He's run well on soft ground before, so that wasn't the problem, but he was struggling before they had completed half a mile. Having looked again at his profile, he's mainly raced in class 4, and perhaps he likes to be able to dominate, whereas he couldn't do that in this class 3 race. Food for thought.
The winner of the race NUTS N BOLTS looks a sure-fire horse to follow. His jumping in the final mile was awful, but he still saw off the challenges and stayed on strong. The horse loved the going, he's now won 5 of his 8 starts on soft/heavy but, personally, I did not think he'd stay this extreme trip.
Finally, a word for SILVER BY NATURE who returned to Haydock, the scene of his greatest triumph when beating OUR VIC on heavy ground. I rated Saturdays run by Silver By Nature at 152 and, if he can find his usual 7lb improvement for his seasonal debut, he will be right in the frame for the Welsh National, a ran he was 2nd in back in 2009.
Ascot is a real disappointment today, with the feature race reduced to a 2-horse match. That said, I reckon we have a decent wager in the 3:15 at Ascot in VIVA COLONIA. Coming from the unfashionable Brian Ellison stable, I reckon VIVA COLONIA is underrated, and should be joint fav with Drumshambo. That horse is akso on my alert list but, at the odds, VIVA COLONIA is the value wager at 11/2. Only 7 go to post so it's a win wager.
My other wager is at Haydock but not in the feature race. Previous blog selection CHAC DU CADRAN runs in the 1:15 and I think he should be fav for this race having trip and ground in his favour. It was a silly fall LTO as he over jumped the fence. At 10/1 he has to be an eachway play.
The feature race revolves around CUE CARD. If he stays 3-mile, he wins. Simple as that. But, it is a very strong race, and we just don't know how much ability Tidal Bay retains at 12yo.
Haydock 1:15, CHAC DU CADRAN £5 win & £5 eachway @ 10/1
Ascot 3:15, VIVA COLONIA £10 win @ 11/2
Total stakes= £25
Friday 22 November 2013
Thursday 21 November 2013
Wednesday 20 November 2013
Tuesday 19 November 2013
Monday 18 November 2013
Sunday 17 November 2013
JOHNS SPIRIT was given a tremendous ride by his jockey Richie McLernon and altho' he hit the front a bit too soon and idled on the run-in, when he was challenged by the runner-up in the final 50 yards he picked up again and maintained the advantage. I thought he matched his performance when 2nd to Katenko at Sandown earlier this year and there could easily be another 10lb+ improvement in him. Remember, Jonjo O'Neill has been in this position before with a 6yo winning the Paddy Power off a rating of OR139 - Exotic Dancer!
Exotic Dancer had a similar racing style to JOHNS SPIRIT, coming from way off the pace and, while it is early days with this horse, nothing is impossible in horseracing. Exotic Dancer went on to win again at Cheltenham twice that season before running 2nd to the great Kauto Star in the Gold Cup earning a rating of OR168.
With a bit more bravery on the selection from, it could have been a very good day as the novice chaser LE BEC who was on my alert list, won in very catching fashion earlier on the card. He looks like a marathon chaser in the making. In respect of the 3m3f & 110yards Murphy Chase (handicap) passing it over was a good play. Race winner Alverado had shown a liking for Cheltenham when 3rd here in April off OR131 and, dropped 2lb yesterday, was weighted to be in the picture. The runner-up Knockara Beau ran right up to his best form, but it wasn't good enough. It was another step back for 3rd-placed Bradley who was runner-up in this last year. Then, I gave him a rating of 149 when 2nd to Monbeg Dude but, for yesterday, I only award him 133. If his return to form continues, I'd love to see him go for the Welsh National where (on soft ground) he could be a handicap snip. Monbeg Dude ran a brave race in 4th, and at one point I thought he'd win. But, he's handicapped to his ceiling now at OR138 and that's as good as he gets. He is the classic example of finding a horse running much better than his rating and taking advantage. I'd spotted the horse when he won his chase debut in Nov'11, and followed that up with a eye-catching run at Newcastle in Jan'12. He is the horse that I look out for and he rewarded up with a couple of long-odds wins last season before the handicapper caught up with him.
I chose the wrong one with my other selection DENALI HIGHWAY, favouring him over my other alert runner No Planning who one the race. I'm still not convinced that No Planning stays 3-mile well enough as he clouted the 2nd last hard, and that's the sign of a tired horse. Unfortunately, Denali Highway could not take advantage and did look in need of the race. I'd expect DENALI HIGHWAY to go well NTO and I'd not be put off whatever trip is tried between 21f - 25f, as he looks like a 3-miler yet has a bit of speed about him. As for No Planning, I think he'll struggle once re-rated over 3-mile and he'd do better dropped in trip to 20f-22f.
It's too late to post some selections for Cheltenham this afternoon, but here are the runners from my alert list:-
Cheltenham 2:10 Raya Star and Dodging Bullets
Fontwell 1:50 Emperor's Choice
Fontwell 2:25 Dolatulo and Foxcub
Cheltenham 2:40 Sire De Grugy
Cheltenham 3:15 Ahyaknowyerself and Cash And Go
Cheltenham 3:50 Red Sherlock
I do like CASH AND GO and, having run 2nd in this race last year, we know he'll love it. FOXCUB at Fontwell looks value to be in the places and should go well.
Onwards and upwards into next week.
Saturday 16 November 2013
Friday 15 November 2013
Thursday 14 November 2013
Wednesday 13 November 2013
Tuesday 12 November 2013
Sunday 10 November 2013
As such, I missed advising a superlative wager via the blog on the winner of the "Badger" chase at Wincanton - STANDING OVATION. I did advise a wager at about 1:00pm via twitter on the horse when he was trading at 4/1 (eventually started at 5/2) and he won the race very easily. I did think that there was too much use made of him as he took up the lead before 3-out and was quickly pushed clear. He started to look like he was wandering on the run-in and I (briefly) thought he may be caught by the runner-up. A such, I don't think he'll take much of a rise in the handicap from his OR120 rating.
There were a couple of other horse alert runners that were on my shortlist for wagers yesterday, but there is no point in going over them. Time to put yesterday behind me and to move on. The heavy ground brought out some specialists, the most lucrative one being the win at Sandown by heavy going specialist Fine Parchment @ 14/1. He gave his rivals a right run-around and had them all struggling from 4-out as he relished the ground and jumped like a stag. One from my alert list who also loves heavy ground runs at Ffos Las today, FIREBIRD FLYER in the 3-mile hurdle at 2:30. He won on similar ground on Boxing Day last December and, if you can get longer than 7/2, he's worth a small wager. He's currently at 3/1 across the board and those odds are too skinny.
Another from my alert list running today is BALBRIGGAN at Market Rasen in the 2:15. I'm not sure he a true 3-mile chaser even tho' he was just pipped on the post over 3m2f &110yards LTO at Newton Abbott. This race over 3m1f may leave him exposed to a horse with a better turn-of-foot on the run-in.
No selections advised today, but keep an eye on the odds about FIREBIRD FLYER.