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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday 27 June 2013
Now, altho' I was on Ruler Of The World at Epsom, I'm not sure he'll stay a true-run 12-furlongs. The early pace of the Derby was a joke and while ROTW clearly has a devastating turn-of-foot, for me the jury is still out as to whether he's a 12-furlong horse or not. His half-bro' Duke Of Marmalade, only had 2 runs over 12-furlongs winning his 1st attempt which was in the King George. The horse he beat that day, Papal Bull, certainly stayed the 12-furlong trip but never won a Group 1 in 7 attempts and this was the closest he got. Duke Of Marmalade was a miler as a 3yo, running 2nd in the St James's Palace Stakes.
As such, I think the value lies with Libertarian (7/2) and Galileo Rock (8/1).
Libertarian, a half-bro to the Godolphin owned Prince Siegfried, reminds me of Prince Regent (that will make you look for the record books) who won the race in 1969 after being a fast-finishing 3rd to Blakeney in that years Derby.
Galileo Rock is a half-bro to Saddlers Rock, last seen finishing down the field in last weeks Ascot Gold Cup. The thought is that this horse may be best aimed at the St Leger in September, tho' I reckon if this race (Irish Derby) is truly run then he's the horse that will benefit the most. He looks certain to finish in the 1st-3.
At the odds, I am a layer of ROTW, and(just on the balance of the odds) I'll be having a small eachway wager on GALILEO ROCK @ 8/1.
Thanks for reading this blog,
from Wayward Lad
Wednesday 26 June 2013
Wednesday 19 June 2013
Tuesday 18 June 2013
For a detailed preview of the Kings Stand Stakes over 5-furlongs, I strongly suggest you visit sprinter-specialist blogger the "Laird" at Sprinterstogo.
Monday 3 June 2013
Last week, I was lucky enough to win the Formbet competition with a prize of the Galaxy Tab2 and 6 months membership. Dave McAuley who runs Formbet provides a 1st-rate service and a "free" version of his ratings can be obtained when following the link (click-on Formbet).
I used the Formbet ratings on Friday when assessing the runners in the Group 1 "Oaks" at Epsom, and decided that the 2nd-top-rated on the Formbet ratings - TALENT - looked exceptional value. I wasn't sure she'd be up to winning the race, but I was fairly sure she'd be placed (she had, after all, won her only 3yo start which was the "Pretty Polly" Stakes over 10-furlongs at Newmarket) and so had a place-only wager at average odds of 6.20 on Betfair. Sure enough, she ran up to her rating and went on to win the race at odds of 20/1 from her stablemate (who was top-rated on Formbet).
Then, on Saturday, I used the Formbet ratings and also the opinion of my brother who writes the excellent Sprinterstogo blog to make a couple of selections. Sprinterstogo reviewed only the Epsom Dash over 5-furlongs and the nominated selection was DUKE OF FIRENZE who was 8/1 at the time of writing. DUKE OF FIRENZE was also top-rated by Formbet, and I named that horse as the 1st-leg of my "twitter" double. DUKE OF FIRENZE won at 5/1 - having been laid at 999.0 on Betfair "in-running"!
My 2nd-leg on Saturday was in the Derby - RULER OF THE WORLD. I have long been of the opinion that trainer AP O'Brien sends his prime "Derby" candidate to the Chester May meeting. Yes, he may have other good 3yo colts in his stable, but the one he considers his best Epsom Derby horse goes to Chester, and that's where RULER OF THE WORLD ran and won last month. As such, Duke of Marengo never really entered my calculations, and there was plenty of debate and opinion before the race that the short-priced fav Dawn Approach would be unlikely to stay this 12-furlong trip. For me, RULER OF THE WORLD should have been more like a 3/1 chance and so the 8/1 available in the morning was a real gift from the bookmakers. I also consulted the free email / blog on the Derby provided by Ben Aitken's excellent website Narrowing-The-Field which made RULER OF THE WORLD to most likely winner based on trends and dosage. Ben's site is well worth a regular visit and his own ratings more than pay their way. His occasional free bulletins are worth their weight in gold. Finally, Formbet also had RULER OF THE WORLD as their top-rated selection.
It was no contest really, and RULER OF THE WORLD won the Derby at an SP of 7/1 completing a tremendous day at the races for me. At SP, those 2 winners on Saturday produced a 47/1 winning double, and at the morning odds it was a 80/1 winning double.
Here's a photo of my Galaxy Tab2 provided by Formbet.