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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Sunday, 28 November 2021
Friday, 26 November 2021
We have one of the best chase handicaps of the jumps season this weekend in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Newbury. Always run at a strong pace, and always a race that produces good winners; and this year looks like being one of the better editions.
Before I go on: I discussed the race and my thoughts on the likely winner on the WRAP (What's Racing About Podcast) hosted by Peter Bell: here is the link
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1811838/9615280 The plan is to have a chat with Peter maybe once or twice a month, and to try and find a few decent winners and entertain the listener at the same time.
Sunday, 21 November 2021
A great result yesterday, with JERSEY BEAN - advised in the morning at 9/1 - drifting out to an SP of 16/1 (I just missed 18/1 about a minute before the off). Those odds were a bit daft considering the horse had everything in his favour: trip, ground, fitness, a course winner, and he's a prominent runner too. My morning thought was that he'd go off around 7/1, and with 4-places available from some bookies in this 11-runner race, I just could not see how having a wager on him eachway would not result in small profit at least. This is why - in my opinion - it pays to think about how you wager: always remember you are in control and you should ONLY have a wager when you think the odds are in your favour. Add that JB was Oliver Sherwood's only runner yesterday, and 4 of his last 8 runners have won or placed in the past week, and there was no reason that this horse - who has improved with nearly every run he's had over fences - should have been 16/1.
Saturday, 20 November 2021
Friday, 12 November 2021
With a planned attendance at Cheltenham on Saturday for me, my first Cheltenham race meeting since March 2020, I have written the weekend blog earlier than usual as on Saturday morning I will be driving from Brighton to Cheltenham. If you see me there, be sure to say hello.
Saturday, 6 November 2021
We have some top-class racing from Aintree and Wincanton today, with supporting meetings at Fontwell and Kelso over the jumps. I have a stack of horses from my alert list running today, and I will try and mention as many as possible that have winning chances.
At Aintree, the 3-mile handicap hurdle at 1:08pm brings us the seasonal debut of Remastered, and I can see this horse having a big season - but not over hurdles. He was just below top-class last season but then he only had 4 chase runs and there's loads of potential in him.
At 2:15pm, we have the feature race in the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase over 2m5f over the National fences. Of the 13 that go to post, there are 2 on my alert list: Senior Citizen (who I tipped to win LTO) and the exciting Midlands National winner Time To Get Up. I don't think Aintree will suit Time To Get Up, and this trip is too short for him, but he's on a great handicap mark of OR144. I think Senior Citizen will be tough to beat in this race, as he ran well over C&D in April coming 3rd off OR137 and so OR139 and being in better form suggests he has a winning chance. There's plenty of 4/1 about, with Bet365 going 9/2 and Bet Victor at 5/1, and odds of 5/1 look generous given the lack of opposition.
Later in the afternoon at 3:20pm, from my alert list is the 6yo Wilde About Oscar, and he may not be the best-off at the weights in this race on known form to-date, but he could end up once of the best staying hurdlers by the end of the season.
At Wincanton, the feature race is the Badger Beer Handicap Chase over 3-mile at 3:00pm. Last year, the 1st-2 were separated by a short-head and they return to do battle again: El Presente and Potterman. The fav for the race is Cap Du Nord, who is a horse who runs well but rarely finishes in front: on form, he should win, but will he? Potterman always goes best when fresh, and he wasn't fresh last season in this having had a run at Chepstow a few weeks earlier, so this year he looks well-set for a bold run, and odds of 12/1 (4-places) with Bet Victor looks generous in this 13-runner race.
At Kelso, from my alert list is Doyen Breed, a 6yo with Sandy Thomson, who looks better than average and one to keep an eye on. He runs in the 3m2f hurdle at 1:35pm and he ran a stonker over C&D last season, so he should be capable of winning this. Odds of 5/2 are fair as he could easily start at 7/4 in this race.
I didn't put up a winner last weekend: and I would like to rectify that this weekend - as it's my birthday weekend: I'm 62yo on Monday 8th. So, my main selection is DOYEN BREED at 5/2 (available generally). Trainer, Alan King is doing really well and he could have a cracking day of racing: so I'm also having a small eachway double on SENIOR CITIZEN at Aintree POTTERMAN at Wincanton. Bet Victor offer 5/1 on Senior Citizen (4-places) and 11/1 on Potterman (4-places) and I'm on.