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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday 27 February 2016
Friday 26 February 2016
Thursday 25 February 2016
Jump racing this week has been ordinary fare, and that theme continues today with few (if any) wagering opportunities about. Putting money on veterans chases isn’t my idea of fun and, in such circumstance, I’m prepared to be patient and wait for the opportunities to come along – and they will this weekend.
Saturday 20 February 2016
We have 3 good jump race meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton, and a stack of horse alerts from my alert list. Unfortunately, most of the races have small fields, and finding value is tricky - it is thin on the ground. I'm debating whether to have a wager at all, or maybe have just one wager, or even make 3 selections and combine in doubles and trebles.
Let's start with Ascot, where the novices chase at 1:50pm over 3-mile looks an exciting renewal of the Reynoldstown Chase. There are 3 from my alert list in this, and the one who looks best placed is Onenightinvienna who is proven at the trip, on the ground and has the form in the book - at 11/4 he looks fair value.
The 2:25pm sees exciting novice Waldorf Salad return to the track after his gallant race at Cheltenham last month. Unfortunately, he's up against the top handicap chaser Sausalito Sunrise and even in receipt of 18lb he could find life tough as I rate Sausalito Sunrise better than OR150. At 3:35pm we have the main event, the Ascot Chase over 2m5f which is a stepping stone to the Ryanair Chase at the Festival. No matter how I look at the form book, this race is between Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti and both need to win this race to recapture their reputation. At the odds, I am with Dynaste who I think does not really stay 3-mile as a chaser (at his best) but has always run well at this sort of trip. Odds of 4/1 look generous to me given nothing else (other than Conti) is within 7lb of him in the race.
Haydock offers top-class racing including at 2:05pm the 2m7f Rendelsham Hurdle. The fav is the 11yo Reve De Sivola who ran here 4-weeks ago in the Peter Marsh Chase. Personally, I think he will struggle today to hold AT FISHERS CROSS who looked a 160+ hurdler in the World Hurdle last March, and who's comeback run when 2nd in Ireland over 3-mile suggests he is the best at this trip in the race. The one I fear most is the Paul Nicholls trained Silsol who reverts to hurdling having not hit the heights as a novice chaser, but his stamina isn't proven. Odds of 4/1 look generous about AT FISHERS CROSS.
The Grand National Trial at 2:40pm looks a cracker of a race. To be run on heavy ground it will take some staying and no surprise to see dual Welsh National winner Mountainous as the 5/1 fav. However, he may have trouble meeting that winning form again so soon after that win LTO, and BROADWAY BUFFALO comes here fresh and running off a good mark of OR140. He's already won at Haydock on heavy ground and looks to have plenty of potential still. Also best-priced at 5/1, he will stake some beating.
Finally we also have the Wincanton meeting, and here I find it interesting that Charlie Longsdon is preserving the chase rating of Cadoudoff by running him over hurdles in the 2:50pm race there. Later at 3:55pm there is a very competitive 2-mile handicap chase with 6-runners and you cannot really discount any. I have Gardefort on my alert list and - on his day - he looks better than OR141. However, he does not always show his best form. Ulck Du Lin showed what he is capable of too LTO at Sandown, but he is another who does not always show his best, and he's up 4lb for that run too. However, I think putting 5lb claimer Charlie Deutsch in the saddle could swing it for GARDEFORT, and odds of 9/4 look fair.
So, where is my money going?
I like the novice chaser ONENIGHTINVIENNA and as he has a lot of ticks in the boxes and I like to keep things simple - stick to fact, not potential - the 11/4 looks good to me.
DYNASTE is now 9/2 and that looks too long to me, as I'd have him joint-fav at 3/1, as I think he will enjoy the good lead he will get from Silviniaco Conti, who he has only ever met at 3-mile.
Lastly, AT FISHERS CROSS is the class horse in his race and I cannot understand why 9/2 is available (Paddy Power & William Hill), he has to be a wager.
Ascot 1:55pm ONENIGHTINVIENNA, £7 win @ 11/4 (available generally)
Ascot 3:35pm DYNASTE, £7 win @ 9/2 (available generally)
Haydock 2:05pm AT FISHERS CROSS, £7 win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power and William Hill)
Plus: 3 x £2 win doubles
Plus: £3 win treble
Total staked = £30
Friday 19 February 2016
How STILLETTO started at odds of 7/4 is beyond me as I thought he was a slight odds-on chance (there is always the possibility of being brought-down or suffering other interference etc). I hope followers of the blog recouped their losses from the previous race even though I didn;t name him as a selection due to my "no wagers less than 9/4" rule.
Onto today, and the racing at Sandown isn't great as it is "Military" day with the feature race being the Royal Artillery Gold Cup for amateur riders. Unusually, Paul Nicholls does not have a runner in the race. As such, I'm looking at the 4:20pm race which is also a 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase with 9-runners declared. Sandown is a tricky place for young chasers learning their trade, and the fav for this race Beg To Differ has not convinced with his jumping so far, and he can be opposed. I think my alert list runner Loose Chips has had plenty of opportunities to win this season, and he's crept up the weights a little. He does not look as good as he was last season, but wont be far away. The novice Dancing Shadow looks more interesting as he looks like this trip will suit him as he was a strong finishing 2nd LTO here at Sandown over 2m4f in what looks like an interesting race. One who has slipped to an interesting rating is BERTIE BORU who runs off OR130 today having been rated OR136 after running 2nd here over C&D in January last year. He's not had much luck since then, without looking like he's lost any ability, and today's ground and trip will be perfect for him. Fond Memory would like better ground, and Sands Cove looks held on his current mark of OR127.
All-in-all, BERTIE BORU looks fair value at 7/1 (available generally) for this race, and he's my eachway wager today as I think he should probably be more like 9/2 given the opposition.
Sandown 4:20pm BERTIE BORU, £5 eachway and £5 win @ 7/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Thursday 18 February 2016
Wednesday 17 February 2016
Monday 15 February 2016
It is in the 4:10pm race, a 3m1f handicap Class 3 chase at Catterick, with 10-runners. This looks a cracker of a race for the course, and a competitive handicap.
There are 4 in the field who are on my alert list: Another Hero, Jac The Legend, Straidnahanna, and Shimla Dawn. Of those 4, Shimla Dawn seems to be struggling to find his best trip despite winning his debut chase over 2m4f, and he didn't stay 2m7f when tried at the trip in November. Jac The Legend, is better than his OR113 rating and ran over an inadequate trip LTO (2m4f) but he will have to go some to hold a few in this field. Another Hero looks a class horse in the making. He is 2 from 2 in chase races, and runs off OR136 today after being raised only 5lb for the latest win. After that run, I thought he could be a potential 150+ horse, so he is a serious contender today. It is STRAIDNAHANNA on whom I am having a wager today.
This horse looked well handicapped when running off OR131 at Haydock in November when falling with the race at his mercy. He's run well since in two further races, but does make the odd jumping error. He has been dropped 3lb to OR128 which, in my book, gives him a helluva chance especially as he's a C&D winner, and Catterick suits a prominent-runner like him. Trainer Sue Smith has a great record at Catterick, and she has only two horses entered here today, with her other horse looking to hold no realistic chance.
Of the others, I think Looking Well still has a bit to prove and does not justify his 3/1 quote in the betting market. As for Warrantor, I think he'd prefer a slog in the mud, and with the ground good-to-soft in places it will likely be too quick for him.
What has swung me from Another Hero to Straidnahanna are the odds: currently Straidnahanna is 10/1 with Paddy Power and Bet Victor (I actually took 9/1 on the train into London as I thought that would go quickly). I reckon he is more like a 9/2 chance today in this field.
Catterick 4:10 STRIADNAHANNA, £5 eachway @ 10/1 (BetVictor or PaddyPower, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)