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Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 14 March 2020

The 2020 Cheltenham Festival Blog performance

What a cracking final day of the Cheltenham Festival for the blog selections.
We went into the day with a £57.50 profit (typo y'day) on cumulative stakes of £141 - that's a 40% return on investment. Plenty of professional tipsters will be bragging about 25% ROI.
On the final day I advised wagers in just 3 races.
First-up was the Triumph Hurdles, and the jungle drums had been sounding out that GOSHEN was the best horse trainer Gary Moore had ever handled. I suggested a £5 win wager at 11/4 and a straight-forecast Goshen to beat Sir Psycho (the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string). If anyone watching the race thought Goshen would not win with half-a-mile to run, they must have been on the wacky-baccy.  coming to the final flight he was 15-lengths ahead - then disaster. Jumped a tad early, hit the hurdle but stood up, and then catapulted the jockey out of the saddle! The horse cantered on riderless for another 150 yards before the eventual winner caught him up. that's racing for you.
Next up the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
for me there was only one horse to wager on, and that was last years winner AL BOUM PHOTO. Talking to a horseracing sage before the event, we concluded that in Al Boum Photo we were getting 3/1 about a 6/4 chance - this was a Mullins trained Gold Cup winner going off at 3/1.
With that thought fresh in my mind I doubled my usual stake.
Was there ever any doubt?
The advised wager of £20 @ 100/30 was indeed very generous and another £66.65 into the profit.
I was full of confidence about the final selection of the day and of the week SHANTOU FLYER, as he had everything in his favour. The only danger I could see was the Mullins (as ever) trained Billaway who was tricky to rate. For the first 3-miles of the race, I thought Shantou Flyer was in the driving seat, but then Billaway started to make ground along with the 66/1 outsider It Came To Pass (last seen in January, pulling-up in a point-to-point at Kilfeacle in Ireland - I don't know where that is either - before that, he was 7th of 16 on Boxing Day at Down Royal when he was 23-lengths behind Billaway and carrying 2lb less). I can accept being beaten by the Mullins trained Billaway, but a 66/1 rank outsider? The only inkling of ability is that he's a half-brother to the Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere.

After a tremendous final day, and had Goshen jumped the final flight it could have been a much better result for the blog, we ended up with profit of £104.16 to recommended stakes of £186.00 - that is a return on investment of 56%.

I really hope you have enjoyed reading the blog, with my thoughts and reasons, and following me in on the wagers. It has been a great year. If you fancy buying me a pint for the pleasure, use the donate button and send me a few quid. All the best, and keep safe for next year.

Over the next few weeks I will make a full review of the results and give my thoughts for lessons learned.

Day 1 - Tuesday
Cash Back LOST (£10.00)
Mister Malarky LOST (£10.00)
Ballyandy LOST (£10.00)
Conerstone Lad LOST (£10.00)
Lord Du Mesnil LOST (£10.00) 
Carried Forward = £4.00 profit
Staked = £64.00

Day 2 - Wednesday
Copperhead LOST (£20.00)
EASYSLAND - WON - £35.00
Carried forward = £19.00 profit
Staked = £30.00 (cumulative = £94.00)

Day 3 - Thursday
Itchy Feet LOST (£10.00)
MIN - WON - £25.00
Frodon LOST (£2.00)
Spiritofthegames LOST (£10.00)
BOB MAHLER - 3rd (advised eachway) £13.00
Carried forward = £57.50
Staked = £47.00 (cumulative = £141.00)

Day 4 - Friday
Goshen LOST (£10.00)
AL BOUM PHOTO - WON - £66.66
Delta Work LOST (£5.00)
Shantou Flyer LOST (£10.00
Profit for the Week = £104.16
Cumulaive Stakes for the Festival = £186.00
Return on Investment = 56%

Friday 13 March 2020

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4 (Friday)

We went into the 3rd day of the Festival holding a £15 profit on £94 staked over 5 races.
Day 3 is probably the trickiest as it holds 3 handicaps, alongside 3 championship races and a mares hurdle. Unfortunately, the selection in the 1st race, Itchy Feet, fell. However we were back in the game with the 2nd race when my narrative suggested that TOUT ES PERMIS would give you a good run for your money, and he ran 3rd after looking a like a winner 2-out. The Ryanair Chase saw the blog in profit pn the day as I advised a £10 win wager on eventual winner MIN at 5/2 (£25 profit).
The Stayers Hurdle threw-up a shock winner, but again the narrative suggested a long-odds placed horse in BACARDYS at 33/1.
In the handicap chase, we just missed a payday when selection Spiritofthegames came 6th, just a nose behind the 5th horse. Keep an eye on this one next time he runs, as he was left at the start and rattled home in the final mile and should have in the 1st 4.
There was no mistake over what won the Mares Hurdle: selection CONCERTISTA romped home (£5 win advised) at 9/2; that's £22.50 profit.
Finally, the Kim Muir, and I thought I'd found a handicap blot with Bob Mahler. Had he kicked-on after jumping the 3rd-last and opened up a lead, he would not have been caught. He stayed-on strong from the final fence to take 3rd (£5 ew advised at 18/1 = £13 profit).
Into the final day with £75.50 profit on £141 staked.

To be honest, I thought earlier this week that we would be watching these races being run behind closed doors, but the course will be open for business.

1:30 Triumph Hurdle over 2-mile and 179 yards
The whisper in the industry is that Goshen is the best horse trainer Gary Moore has ever had, and when you see how he's won his 3 hurdle races to date, you can see why. Which all makes you wonder what the handicapper was smoking when he rewarded Solo with a rating of OR157 for his debut (and only UK) win in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton? That is 6lb higher than GOSHEN. Of the others, Allmankind was impressive when winning LTO on 27Dec, but that 77-day break is too long to come here off for me (ave 34 days, Zaynar in 2009 was 55 days). Aspire Tower fell LTO and the record of fallers LTO winning at Cheltenham is dire, can anyone name one? He's a talented horse, but maybe on another day. Paul Nicholls (who trains Solo) also has Sir Psycho in the race, and this horse has improved for every run and was also impressive LTO when winning on 15Feb. While Solo may be the stable star, it would not surprise me to see this one trouble Goshen most.
Suggested Wager:
GOSHEN: £5 win @ 11/4
and £5 Exacta (Forecast) 5 (Goshen) to beat 9 (Sir Psycho)

2:10 County (handicap) Hurdle over 2-mile and 179 yards
Of the last 12 winner, 8 went off at odds longer than 20/1.
Stick to horses which have NOT won over trips longer than 2m1f, and 5yo and 6yo horses have a good record. The LTO winner CHRISTOPHER WOOD trained by Paul Nicholls looks interesting. He wasn't far behind Pentland Hills in a G1 at Aintree last April and he had a wind-op since then. He could be a lot better than his OR145 rating, and he looks a bit of a dark horse in this, he's 33/1 with Ladbrokes, and I only put him up as a "fun" wager if you want to get involved.

2:50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3-mile
You would think that a championship hurdle race over 3-mile would be a decent betting race, but in the past 6 years the shortest SP for the winner has been 11/1 - last years winner Minella Indo went off at 50/1 and there was silence from the crowd! To be honest, I have not a clue about this race, and with 19 going to post, it would seem that the majority of trainers don't know either and that's why they are chancing their arm with an entry. The current 28/1 chance REDFORD ROAD has won over C&D which is (perhaps) useful information, and he seems to need a stamina test as he was one-paced when dropped to 2m4f NTO, but again I only put him up as a "fun" wager if you want to get involved.

3:30 Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase over 3-miles 2-furlongs & 70 yards
This is the big one of the day, and it looks an intriguing race.
Last year, I wrote that I was surprised Ruby Walsh wasn't riding AL BOUM PHOTO in what turned-out to be his final Cheltenham Gold Cup. There was a doubt back then over the stamina of Al Boum Photo, but the way he won the race last year he blew those doubts away. Personally, on my own ratings, nothing since has bettered that run, and Al Boum Photo could be one of the better Gold Cup winners of recent years.  I'm expecting him to win again, and put himself in the record books.
So what can beat him? Delta Work has improved immeasurably this season and they will get a better run out of him in this than they did in the RSA Chase last year, but there is also (in my opinion) a doubt over the jockey Mark Walsh, who rides the horse for the 1st time. I don't doubt his ability, but this will be a tough race to ride a horse for the 1st-time in.
I was at Cheltenham in January when Santini beat Bristol De Mai, and that day I didn't think we'd seen a Gold Cup winner. Bristol De Mai made a bad error 3-out and though he got back into the race, the effort told on the run-in. For me, Santini has to improve at least 7lb on that run to win this race.
Last year I was on Clan Des Obeaux, and he held every chance 2-out but he didn't stay the final 2-furlongs. He has since repeated his win in the King George at Kempton over 3-miles and that looks to be his best trip, and I would be looking for more than 12/1 to tempt me to placing an eachway wager on him to be placed as I just cannot see him winning.
Lostintranslation is interesting, when you look at his form in the autumn, but that he pulled-up LTO at Kempton and hasn't run since, plus his trainer Tizzard is having a terrible Festival (just 1 placed from 12 runners) you have to question his chance in this race.
Kemboy was a 1st-fence faller last year, then went on to win 2 x G1 chases including beating his stablemate Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. unfortunately, he's not looked the same horse so far this year, and will need to improve to win.  I'm also not happy that the amateur PW Mullins is riding as he's much better in hurdle races than as a jockey in chases.
Nothing else really has a chance in this, unless there are multiple fallers, and so I think this is between AL BOUM PHOTO @ 100/30, and Delta Work @ 5/1.
The odds are not great, I'm already on Al Boum Photo at 9/2 and Delta Work at 7/1 (see earlier blogs from this year).
Suggested Wager:
AL BOUM PHOTO: £20 WIN @ 100/30 (available generally)
DELTA WORK (saver bet): £5 WIN @ 5/1 (available generally)

4:10 Foxhunters Hunter Chase over 3-miles 2-furlongs & 70 yards
Last years 1st Hazel Hill and 2nd Shantou Flyer return, and this race is between that pair, the race fav Minella Rocco who was 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2017, and has looked a decent hunter-chaser this season, and the Irish challenger Billaway.
Minella Rocco has the beating of Hazel Hill from when they met on 1st Feb, and the Irish trained Billaway does not look good enough to me being only 8yo and rated only OR135.
So, can SHANTOU FLYER beat Minella Rocco? Absolutely!
He loves Cheltenham, he is still relatively young at 10yo (the same as Minella Rocco) but he's a much more professional horse, with no issues. Since being 2nd in this last year, he has switched stabled to Mrs Rose Loxton and lookes back to his best form - remember in March 2018, he was 2nd in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the Festival running off OR152. Odds of 11/2 look good to me, and I'm rounding off my Festival with a win wager on him before heading off home to Brighton.
Suggested Wager:
SHANTOU FLYER: £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally)

Many thanks for reading the blog, it has been (again) a successful Festival for me. Whatever happens today I will be in profit for the week, and you cannot ask for more than that.  If you have enjoyed it, please send your thanks via twitter on @wayward_lad.
I've had to close the comments section on this blog to followers only due to repeated abuse, otherwise I would appreciate your response.
Aintree next!

Thursday 12 March 2020

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3 (Thursday)

What a start for the blog!
Okay, I didn't post a wager for the 1st race won by the odds-on ENVOI ALLEN, but I did write this "The unbeaten Grade 1 winner will prove difficult to beat, and it may pay to combine the fav with his stablemate Easywork, for a Gordon Elliott one-two" - the Exacta paid £9.60 to a £1 stake. It pays to read the blog!
Copperhead was disappointing, but not as disappointing as Defi Du Seuil.
In the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, again I didn't post a wager, and again I provided a gem of advice; "If you want to have a wager, perhaps the Gordon Elliott trained BLACK TEARS might oblige as this mare ran a cracker at Leopardstown on the 2nd Feb, and then followed up with a good run in a Grade 2 hurdle. Could be under the radar." Black Tears ran 2nd @ 12/1.
Finally, the blog selection EASYSLAND ensured that we go into the 3rd day £15 up after he won well in the X-Country Chase - I did write that you might not find an easier 7/2 winner this week!

Onto today, and the 3rd day of the Cheltenham Festival is my favourite, because I am usually there (I will be today), and I've found some good winners over the years, especially in the handicaps.
The day opens with a really decent novice chase.

1:30 Marsh Novices Chase (Grade 1) over 2-mile & 4-furlongs
A really strong race, and one in which Graded race-winning form is important. Race-fav Itchy Feet ticks the boxes having won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown LTO, and he was also 3rd in the Supreme Hurdle last year. If Faugheen wins there wont be a dry eye in the house. We will know more about his chance after watching Allaho in the RSA on Wed.
Melon was a top-class hurdler and could certainly be the best of these, but he flopped LTO and has yet to run over this trip as a chaser. For me ITCHY FEET should be the 7/4 fav and, as such,odds of 4/1 look mighty generous.
Suggested Wager:
ITCHY FEET: £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)

2:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle over 3-mile   
A front-runner that stays, that's the ideal horse for this race, and I can't see one that fits the bill. I'm tempted by Third Wind as trainer Hughie Morrison has done really well with a small string of hurdlers and bumpers, but this would be a step into the unknown stamina-wise for him. A horse that looks very interesting is TOUT ES PERMIS trained by Noel Meade who has sent only 3 horses over for the Festival, and this is the best of them. Rated OR155 as a chaser, he runs off OR136 in this hurdle and we know he stays 3-mile, travels well, and Meade has put a talented 7lb claimer on. I've been reminded that Meade has a poor Cheltenham record, but there is a lot to like about this horse, and there is plenty of 20/1 about this horse who could give you a good run for your money.

2:50 Ryanair Chase over 2-mile 4-furlongs & 127 yards
One of my favourite races.
There has been a huge gamble on A Plus Tard, who won  the Novice H'Cap Chase over 2m4f last year in a canter, so (on his day) he's a decent horse, but he will need to improve 7lb on that run to win this. I think he will meet his match in MIN who was unlucky to be up against Altior over 2-miles and steps up in trip. He's won Grade 1's over 2m4f at Aintree and Punchestown and he can win again here. Frodon ran the race of his life to win this last year, and he may have to do the same again this time - I'm not sure he will, but the horse that beats him will surely win. What's in the favour of Frodon is that he stays 3-mile at Cheltenham and he could just run this field ragged.
Riders Onthe Storm is the new kid on the block. When he won at Ascot LTO my immediate thought was that he'd follow up in this, but now I think he will need to find another 7lb of improvement to win. The others look outclassed at this trip and it will be a huge surprise if they are involved.
For me, A Plus Tard is a false fav, and the true fav should be MIN on 7/4 which makes MIN the value wager.  Frodon is the only runner that I can see beating MIN and so a saver wager on him is worthwhile as he's 5/1.
Suggested Wager:
MIN : £10 win @ 5/2 and FRODON : £2 win @ 5/1 (odds on both horses are generally available)

3:30 The Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) over 3-mile
Paisley Park won this last year and there is nothing to suggest that he won't do it again, except that I think he will be pushed all the way by not one, but two horses - Summerville Boy, who chased him home in the Cleeve Hurdle over 3-mile in January; and Penhill, winner of this race in 2018. The thing is, will either of them be able to beat him? As the ground is soft/heavy which will favour PAISLEY PARK then likely not, and though this might suggest a forecast wager opportunity, I'm expecting Summerville Boy and Penhill to fade in the run-in and a solid 3-miler like Bacardys might well stay-on to take the runners-up spot.  Willie Mullins would not send this horse for this if he didn't think it had a chance of being placed, and while he runs Penhill thatmay be more on sentiment.

4:10 The BA & M Stable Plate Handicap Chase over 2-mile & 4-furlongs & 127 yards
As always, a tough handicap to fathom.
Simply The Bett is the fav as he won the C&D h'cap here on Trials Day in January beating Imperial Aura who won his handicap on Tuesday. Recent winning form is a good sign, and Oldgrangewood loves it round here, but he ran in this race as a 7yo off the same OR147 rating and was pulled-up. Another old favourite is Spiritofthegames who was 3rd in this off OR147 last year, he's now only 2lb higher, he must be in the frame. Another LTO winner is Springtown Lake who was 5th in a h'cap chase here (won by A Plus Tard) last year off OR141, he's a better horse now. the mare Happy Diva won here in November off OR142 and isn't out of it off 7lb higher.
A tricky race, and I keep coming back to SPIRITOFTHEGAMES who was unlucky to bump into a well-handicapped Cepage LTO who held-up that form on Tuesday in the 3m1f h'cap and while 2lb up in the handicap on last year, he's carrying 3lb less weight on his back.
Suggested Wager:
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES: £5 eachway @ 16/1 (available generally, 5th odd a place 1st-5)

4:50 Mares' Novice Hurdle over 2-mile 1-furlong
Not a race I usually look at, but the front-3 in the market look like providing the winner of this. The fav Minella Melody beat 3rd-fav Colreevy when they met on 25Jan, and though on a 1lb worse terms, it is difficult to see colreevy reversing the placings over this furlong-shorter trip. So that points the finger at CONCERTISTA trained by Willie Mullins (as is Colreevy). The form of her run when 3rd to Black Tears on 02Feb was confirmed when that horse ran 2nd in the Coral Cup h'cap off 8lb higher. It looks like Concertina is coming to her peak again for this race, as she was just beaten a short-head in this race in 2019. She can win this, and odds of 4/1 look fair.
Suggested Wager:
CONCERTISTA: £5 win @ 4/1

5:30 The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir h'cap Chase over 3-mile 2-furlongs
One of my favourite races and don't forget it is for amateur riders. Punters have no cottoned-on that only the best amateurs can win this, and the usual suspects are all on the market leaders: JJ Codd (Le Breuil), Derek O'Connor (Champagne Platinum), William Biddick (Deise Aba), PW Mullins (Fitzhenry).  I cannot see Le Breuil repeating his win in the NH Chase last year, in this. His form this year isn't close to what's required. Deise Aba won well LTO on 01Feb at Sandown, and looks to be on the upgrade, and a 7lb hike to OR142 may not stop this 7yo. The Irish-trained Fitzhenry has been knocking on the door of a h'cap win in Ireland all season, and looks most likely to be placed. This trip will test the stamina of Champagne Platinum, so odds of 4/1 look a bit tight. The partnership of Greatrex and McParlan teamed-up to win this with Missed Approach in 2018, and they have BOB MAHLER a LTO winner over 4m1f, so stamina is no issue, and Bob Mahler is treading the same path. He also won a 3-mile h'cap chase here last April so handles the course, he's a good jumper and should be there at the finish, he's 18/1 with Bet365 and Bet Victor.
Suggested Wager:
BOB MAHLER: £5 eachway @ 18/1 (5th odds a place 1st-5 with BetVictor)

Tuesday 10 March 2020

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2 (Wednesday)

Not a bad start to the Festival, but it could have been better.
Very disappointing from Cash Back, thought we'd get a run for our money, but no.  The form of the Arkle looks a bit "iffy", but then that's a bit of sour grapes as well - these things usually pan-out in the end and I'm sure the winning mare PUT THE KETTLE ON is as good as previous Arkle winners.
We hit the back of the net with THE CONDITIONAL in the Ultima Handicap Chase, who I advised early on Monday morning at 9/1.  My main fancy in the race, Mister Malarky, was well there until his stamina gave way. We emerged with a profit of £40 on the race to advised stakes of £24.
The Champion Hurdle went the way of the betting, with the fav EPATANTE winning well.  This Irish Graded hurdle form came to the fore, and showed-up just how poor the hurdlers are on this side of the Irish Sea.  Take note for the handicaps to come!
What can I say about LORD DU MESNIL? That rogue JJ Codd did it again, didn't he!  Coming down the hill I thought the good Lord had it won, but no.
Overall, we have ended the day even.

Onto Wednesday, and another quality racecard.

1:30 Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2-mile & 5 furlongs
Given the way the Abacadabras ran in the Supreme Hurdle that opens the Festival, then ENVOI ALLEN looks nailed-on. The unbeaten Grade 1 winner will prove difficult to beat, and it may pay to combine the fav with his stablemate Easywork, for a Gordon Elliott one-two.

2:10 RSA Novices Chase over 3-mile
The winner of this race is usually a proper staying chaser, bred to do the job. That Minella Indo has won a Grade 1 hurdle is not a good pointer. Champ is also a Grade 1 hurdle winner, and apt to drop a leg, so he's not on my shortlist either.  Allaho has only had 7 races under rules (a bit short on overall experience) but he looks to have bags of natural talent. But the horse I like the look of is COPPERHEAD, who has improved with every run as a chaser, will have no trouble with the ground or the trip, and his latest win at Ascot was easily - in my opinion - the best run by a novice over 3-mile that we've seen this season, anywhere. After that Ascot race, I compared his time with that of Riders Onthe Storm who won the next race on the card over a 3-furlong shorter trip, and Copperhead was quicker over 2m5f than Riders Onthe Storm in his race. A tremendous performance and, if repeated in this race, he could win with a lot in hand.
Suggested Wager:
COPPERHEAD - £20 win @ 9/2 (available generally)

2:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f
I'm giving this race a wide berth, it looks wide open.
If you want to have a wager, perhaps the Gordon Elliott trained BLACK TEARS might oblige as this mare ran a cracker at Leopardstown on the 2nd Feb, and then followed up with a good run in a Grade 2 hurdle. Could be under the radar.

3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles
Much of the interest has gone with the late withdrawal of Altior, but it is still an intriguing duel between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi. On my ratings I can barely split them, and my leaning towards Defi Du Seuil is because he has won me so much money over the years.
There is no value in the betting, so no recommended wager.

4:10 Cross Country Chase over 3-mile and 6-furlongs
Not a race that I think should be run at the Festival, and this year is no different. However, this year we have a very good X-Country runner in EASYSLAND who has won over C&D, and his main rival - Tiger Roll - surely is being prepared for a date-with-destiny at Aintree rather than this race.
You might not find an easier 7/2 winner this week.
Suggested Wager:
EASYSLAND - £10 win @ 7/2 (Bet365)

4:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle over 2-miles and 87 yards
Not a race for me, I will have a look overnight, but likely to give this a miss.

5:30 Champion Bumper over 2-miles and 87 yards
This is a race for those "in-the-know". Not much form to go on, and what there is, is tricky to interpret.  I've heard a whisper for the David Pipe trained mare, PANIC ATTACK but, honestly, this is a race for the purist.

Monday 9 March 2020

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1 (Tuesday)

This is it, the big one, what we've been waiting for.
First-up a bit of advice - you cannot hope to find the winner of every race, so don't even try. Pick your targets, and if you must have a wager in a race you haven't studied, make it a small one, and maybe just have a fiver in the place-only market on the exchanges or with the Tote.
Remember, over 50% of all the Festival races are won by a last-time-out winner (LTO), finding the winners can be that simple!

I've posted several blogs over the past week with my thoughts on the Festival, and some more detailed analysis, so I'm not going to repeat it, but take a look at the earlier blogs by scrolling down the page.

1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 87 yards)
Stick with LTO winners, and the market leaders. You do not get surprises in this race.  I have really liked the Mullins runner ASTERION FORLONGE for a few weeks since he won well on 2nd Feb. He could well be the best of these, but do not ignore the Gordon Elliott runner Abacadabras who is likely to improve a lot on his last run. Of the English horses, Fiddlerontheroof is likely to be best. All these 3 horses have already won a G1 hurdle, and graded form is the best line to follow. It may be worth combining the 3 in 6 x £2 straight forecasts.

2:10 Arkle (novice chase) over 2-miles
For me, there are only two horses in the race: Notebook and CASH BACK.
Brewin'upastorm has been off the track too long (117 days) and the mare Fakir D'oudairies meets the colts without a mares allowance for the first time. My preference is for CASH BACK as I think this 8yo could be something special, he will lead from the off and this track does suit a front-runner. Both these horses know how to jump at speed, and fingers crossed we are going to be in for a classic.
I'm on CASH BACK already, and I cannot believe that odds of 7/1 are available, even Notebook is available for 100/30. I'd have this pair 2/1 joint-favs.
Suggested Wager: CASH BACK £10 win @ 7/1 (available generally)

2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-miles & 1 furlong
I reviewed this race on Sunday (posted the blog early Monday morning) and my selections are:
Take a look at yesterday's blog for how the stakes are split, £24 wagered.

3:30 The Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87 yards
This race looks absolutely wide open. I would not even bother having a punt on any of those under 10/1, and this could well go to a long odds winner.  There are a couple that look a bit too long in the market: BALLYANDY @ 18/1 (available generally) and CORNERSTONE LAD @ 28/1 (available generally).
Both these horses held the current 2nd-fav Pentlands Hills when they met at Haydock on 18th Jan. On that form they should both be trading at under 10/1. Ballyandy "loves" Cheltenham: was 3rd in the County Hurdle last year, 4th in the Supreme Hurdle in 2017, and won the Champion Bumper in 2016.  Cornerstone Lad has never been out of the 1st-3 since going hurdling, that's 14 races!
Suggested Wager:
BALLYANDY £5 eachway @ 18/1 and
CORNERSTONE LAD £5 eachway @ 28/1
5th odds a place 1,2,3,4

4:10 the Mares' Hurdle over 2-mile 4-furlongs
This should be dominated by the front-3 in the market and as likely winner BENIE DES DIEUX is at odd-on there is no point in having a wager.

4:50 Novices handicap chase over 2-mile 4-furlongs
A very tricky race to fathom, and one that I have not studied.

5:30 National Hunt Chase over 3-mile 6-furlongs
One of my favourite races of the Festival, remember this is for amateur riders. Only the best riders win this: JJ Codd, Sam Waley-Cohen, Derek O'Connor.
This race invariably goes to the highest-rated horse in the race, it is as simple as that. This year that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, the race fav is Carefully Selected on OR152 but he's not as experienced as Lord Du Mesnil, and this is a race in which the younger horse can go well.
As soon as I saw Sam Waley-Cohen had been booked for Lord Dun Mesnil, he was included in my multiple wagers.
Suggested Wager: LORD DU MESNIL £10 win @ 6/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Betfred)

All the best.

Cheltenham Tuesday - the Ultima Handicap Chase

Last year, I managed to find the winner of this race - Beware The Bear - on Sunday, when his odds were 20/1. This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we will have 24 runners going to post - so we have to sort out the possibles from the impossibles. I will look at this the same as last year.
Since 2001, of the 18 winners, 9 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners.
The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Beware The Bear ran 70-days before winning this, and only Wichita Lineman (94 days in 2009) and Joe's Edge (114 days in 2007) won off a longer break.
Horses aged 9yo or older can win this race, but it is more likely the winner will be aged 7yo & 8yo.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult; which rules out Vinndication (129 days); Brave Eagle (101 days); Atlanta Ablaze (94 days); Soupy Soups (122 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out Cepage (17 runs); Vintage Clouds (23 runs); Cogry (33 runs); Townsend (17 runs); and Cobra De Mai (24 runs).
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
Mister Malarkey - ticks a lot of boxes, LTO winner, ran 17-days ago, won a 3-miles, wears cheekpieces (7 of the last 8 winners have worn some form of headgear), prominent runner. On the shortlist.
Kildisart - not won since beating Mister Malarkey at Aintree and looks out-of-form.
Discorama - hasn't won a 3-mile chase and looks one paced. Likely to fill the places.
Who Dares Wins - hasn't raced beyond 2m4f , let alone won, an unlikely winner.
Activial - 6th last year off OR151, so off OR145 will be thereabouts if in the same form - but he's not.
Mulcahys Hill - has won over 3-mile, but it wasn't a strong race, and he was easily beaten LTO.
Burbank - another who ticks the boxes, his win at Newbury in December over 2m6f was decent, but he struggled at Doncaster next time out. Wears blinkers, potential stamina doubt.
Big River - 4th in this last year off OR140, so interesting off OR141 especially having won LTO. But he was mainly passing beaten horses last year, and at 10yo he's not a likely winner.
The Conditional - 5th in the 2-mile Arkle last year (well beaten) he's looked a better horse over 3-miles, but his improvement has stagnated. Wears 1st-time pieces, and that may result in a repeat of Ladbroke Trophy run. On the shortlist.
Elwood - I was disappointed that Gordon Elliott did not keep Shattered Love in this handicap, so that he's only this 6yo running is interesting, except that the form of the horse is ordinary and he makes a lot of mistakes.
Quarenta - if he'd won the Class 2 handicap at Kempton on the 27th Dec (btn a head) he'd be about 3lb heavier. He's proven at the trip, on the ground and is on the upgrade, and Jonjo O'Neill knows how to prepare one. On the shortlist
No Comment - fell LTO (not a good sign), and could not win the Kim Muir off OR138 last year, so I'm not sure he's well handicapped on OR137, but could be placed.
Vivas - not won beyond 2m5f, and attempts at 3-mile have been poor.
Ice Cool Champs - won at Wetherby in Jan off a break of 323 days, but only beat 4 others, and flopped NTO in Feb, so maybe he's had his day this season.
The shortlist is:
MISTER MALARKEY - For me, this horse should be the fav, and that he's 12/1 is tremendous value as he was seriously considered a potential RSA horse last season.
THE CONDITIONAL - probably most likely to be placed than win, but 9/1 is fair.
QUARENTA - very interesting this one, as trainer's son rides Mister Malarkey.
I'm aware that my simplistic trend-sorter has dismissed the favourite Vinndication, but I really cannot have a horse that is both top-weight and returning from a break of 129 days.

My suggested wager is
£4 eachway & £2 win @ 12/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
£5 eachway @ 9/1 (William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
£2 eachway @ 25/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4,5)
PLUS: 6 x £1 straight-forecasts combining the above 3 to be 1st and 2nd
A small stake, but potentially high return (if I'm right)

At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal  which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.

Good luck.

Friday 6 March 2020

Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Early thoughts

Early thoughts? The Festival starts next Tuesday.
But is has been a strange jumps season, I feel like very little has happened and it has sneaked-up on us. I keep hearing the phrase "I've not had an antepost wager this year" - so it's not just me then!

I've been looking at the championship races, as there is very little point in looking at the handicaps unless you have some very good knowledge, and here are a few pointers.

Day 1 - Tuesday
Supreme Novice Hurdle - this isn't a betting race for me, but the form on the ground looks pretty sparce, which could indicate a long-odds winner, or it could indicate that the best of the novices is a lot better than the others.  For me, and I said this on twitter a few weeks ago, ASTERION FORLONGE has the best form in the book. Throw-in he's trained by Mullins and we could be looking at a decent start to the Festival. But do not go overboard!

Day 1 - Tuesday
Arkle - on the formbook this is between Notebook and CASH BACK. There is a possibility that Brewin'upastorm could figure, but he's not raced since November and that is not a good sign. For me, CASH BACK at 13/2 (today) could be one of the bets of the Festival. He is very lightly raced for an 8yo, and looked a decent hurdler in his short spell over hurdles.

Day 1 - Tuesday
Ultima Handicap - several catch my eye: Mister Malarkey ticks a lot of boxes; ROCK THE KASBAH does too; and if he gets in The Conditional.

Day 1 - Tuesday
NH Chase - this race invariably goes to the best form-horse in the race, the top-rated. At the moment that is LORD DU MESNIL on OR153, add that he's ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen in this amateur riders race, and so long as the sun doesn't shine too much and we have soft ground on the opening day, this one looks like being hard to catch, odds of 8/1 look long.

Day 2 - Wednesday
RSA Chase - this revolves around Champ, if he jumps well, he wins. But will he jump well? Odds of 3/1 look fair to me on that score, but you may want a saver on the "next-best", COPPERHEAD who looked a very good novice chaser when winning over 3-mile at Ascot LTO. Odds of 4/1 could look decent on the day, but he's sure to be in the 1st-3 for eachway multiples.

Day 2 - Wednesday
QMCC - You are either a fan of Altior, or you aren't. He will need to be at his best to win this, and will he be at 10yo? For me it is between DEFI DU SEUIL and Chancun Pour Soi, and a reverse forecast on that pair may be a money-spinner.

Day 2 - Wednesday
X-Country Chase - not a race I usually wager in, but the prime target for Tiger Roll is a 3rd Grand National, and that means EASYLAND should romp home in this.

Day 3 - Thursday
Ryanair - a race that could cut-up a lot, but one I think has improved in leaps and bounds this season is RIDERS ONTHE STORM, he could be seriously good, and if Cepage runs well on the opening day in the Ultima Handicap, you will not find 7/1 on the day.

Day 4 - Friday
Gold Cup - I've looked at this race a lot. Nothing has come close to the form of AL BOUM PHOTO when he won this last year, and he won it in a canter. It will have to be one of last years' novice chasers that beats him (if one can) and that's Santini, Lostintranslation, or Delta Work. Personally, I think DELTA WORK would have won the RSA Chase last year had he pushed-on after the 3rd-last.
So it is between those two.

At this time, I also like to fall-back on a couple of renowned shrewdies who take an alternative view to my own (which is purely form-based):
they are Marten Julian - who has his contacts up & down the country and here's the whispers that many of us learn AFTER the race has been won, and
The Mathematician - who has long-delved into the statistics of horseracing, but sorts the wheat from the chaff, and finds nuggets of pure gold, he is currently offering a Cheltenham Festival Deal  which includes Aintree and is well-worth taking advantage of.

Good luck, more on the handicaps later.