Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 9 April 2022
Thursday, 7 April 2022
Wednesday, 6 April 2022
An attractive card at Aintree on the opening day of the Grand National meeting - the 1st four races are Grade 1. The opening 2m4f novice chase looks intriguing as 6 go to post, and they all look capable of significant improvement.
The obvious choice is the Paul Nicholls trained Pic D'Orhy, who won LTO over 2m4f at Kempton beating one of today's rivals Millers Bank. His only disadvantage is the he has mainly run right-handed, and this tight left-handed track could be his undoing. Millers Bank ran well at this meeting as a novice hurdler and he looked much-improved as a chaser LTO and he might yet go even better in this, but he has a fair bit to make up. It's tricky to know how goo Erne River is after a couple of runaway wins, but he looks a bit short in the market to me at 100/30. War Lord is more interesting as he beat some well-fancied horses when 4th in the Arkle; this trip will suit him better than 2-mile. For me, it's PIC D'ORHY but it's a tricky race and there's not much between them.
The 2m1f 4yo hurdle at 2:20pm looks a cracker of a race. Cheltenham winner Brazil is a full-brother to St Leger and Irish Derby winner Capri, so it's no wonder he'd not been gelded! Ordinary on the flat, he's improved rapidly since Christmas and that improvement may not have stopped yet. As such, I think he will prove too strong for Pied Piper who had his limitations exposed in the Triumph Hurdle. On ratings there's not much between them, but the potential for further improvement lies with BRAZIL. The only other likely contender is Petit Tonnerre, but he looks like he wants another half-mile and needs to find about 20lb of improvement.
The Grade 1 Betway Bowl Chase over 3m1f is one the highlights of the meeting; and a top-class field is lined-up including last years winner Clan Des Obeaux. It was one of his best-ever performances last year, but he's not looked the same since in a couple of runs this season, and it's a big ask for the 10yo to return to that sort of form again. The old-boy Bristol De Mai hasn't looked up to winning a race like this for some time. The most obvious winner is the Dan Skelton trained Protektorat, who ran a great race to be 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month - however, he was a long way behind the winner. Alongside him at the finish in the Gold Cup was Royale Pagaille and, to be fair, I think he could prove the better of this pair as he is capable of slightly better form. However, they could both be beaten by Eldorado Allen who won the Denman Chase at Newbury in February beating both Royale Pagaille and Clan Des Obeaux in the process. He then ran in the Ryanair Chase and had no chance trying to match Allaho over 2m4f, and this trip could be perfect for him. The 8yo Conflated won a slowly-run Grade 1 Chase in February, and he will be staying-on late, but he could find the pace of this race too string. I can't see Kemboy repeating his win of 2019 in this race. Looking at the betting market, the odds of 13/2 about ELDORADO ALLEN (William Hill) are the best value in my opinion.
The 4th Grade 1 of the day is the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f. Both the market leaders, Epatante and Zanahiyr are trying this trip for the first time, and it's debatable whether the trip will bring out improvement. So, I'm going against this pair and having a small wager on BREWIN'UPASTORM who will be in 1st-time cheekpieces. He ran a poor race in this event last year, but he was much better when a good C&D winner last November, and a repeat of that performance will see him win this. Odds of 13/2 (Paddy Power) look massive.
I will give the last 3 races on the card a miss.
Looking to the Grand National, it looks like there are 3 confirmed non-runners: Anibale Fly, Agusta Gold and Court Maid although we won't know for sure until the final declarations are made tomorrow.
Tuesday, 5 April 2022
Sunday, 27 March 2022
Saturday, 19 March 2022
Friday, 18 March 2022
Thursday, 17 March 2022
Back in the game!
After a difficult opening day, what a way to bounce back - ENERGUMENE romped home an easy winner of the QMCC, and I have been plugging this horses chances for nearly two weeks. This is what wrote on 5th March: Mullins would not race this absolute top-class 2-mile chaser in the QMCC if he thought he had no chance of reversing the places of the Ascot race, and the QMCC trip and Cheltenham could suit him well. Odds of 4/1 (NRNB) are massive about a horse who - without Shishkin - would be about 1/3 odds-on for this race. I was on ENERGUMENE at 4/1, and again at 7/2 - this was my biggest wager on a horse since I tipped Cue Card for the Ryanair Chase which he won in 2013: that's how confident I was.
Tuesday, 15 March 2022
The less said about the opening day, the better, It was not the best of starts to the Festival for the blog. I completely misread the form of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and thought the Henderson pair were overrated - wrong! Then in the Arkle, the answer was there all the time - Edwardstone - how on earth did I miss that one?
I went for several in the Ultima handicap, but only Fantastikas gave us a race, but he was under a hard-drive from before 2-out and faded into 7th. There was no denying Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle, but this performance was no better than last year when you have OR153 rated Epatante in 2nd and Zanahiyr in 3rd - the top of tree of the hurdle division are a poor bunch.
Onto Wednesday, and what can bring us back into the game? It is not going to be the odds-on Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.
The Brown Advisory Novices Chase at 2:10pm looks more interesting. The Nicholls-trained Bravemansgame is a worthy fav and odds of 3/1 look fair value to me. He stays the trip and looks solid. With several having questions on stamina (L'Homme Presse) or on a recovery mission (Capodanno and Fury Road), the obvious challengers are Ahoy Senor and Beacon Edge - and I favour the latter. Beacon Edge does relish the 3-mile trip and should improve on his LTO 2nd to Farouk D'Alene when conceding that one 7lb, and the ground should favour him too - odds of 12/1 look eachway value.
My main wager of the day, if not the week, is in the Champion Chase at 3:30pm. We all know that when they met at Ascot in January, Shishkin beat Energumene. This time I reckon the places will be reversed. It is a shorter trip (by about 200 yards) and I'm hoping that by the time they reach the final fence, ENERGUMENE will hold a winning advantage. I will be upfront: this is my biggest wager on a race at Cheltenham since Cue Card won the Ryanair Chase, and I am confident that in Energumene I will be on the winner.
No other races on the card interest me.
My advised wagers:
Monday, 14 March 2022
Saturday, 12 March 2022
Wednesday, 9 March 2022
One of the great betting races of the festival; the Ultima is a race I love to target and I managed to find the winner in Beware The Bear in 2019 (tipped at 20/1 on the Sunday before the race) and The Conditional in 2020. The race requires stamina, pace, and usually a progressive profile. Last year, the 11yo Vintage Clouds threw all the trends in the bin to make-all and win; so use trends wisely - they are not the be all & end all. Vintage Clouds won because he was well handicapped after a couple of poor runs, and his trainer capitalized on that by getting him back to his peak for one last top race. There was also a lot of horses with unproven stamina, and Vintage Clouds was absolutely guaranteed to stay the trip.
That's what you need to focus on in this race, stamina. That and horses that have shown good form and are improving - 75% of those that finish in the 1st-4 are carrying 11st or more
Sunday, 6 March 2022
Saturday, 5 March 2022
Saturday, 26 February 2022
It's just 3 Saturdays to the Cheltenham Festival, and this weekend is probably the last one for any realistic chances to show form and go on and run well there. However, according to the stats, it s unlikely. One good thing is that the blog returned to form last Saturday with a good winner in Does He Know - tipped up at odds of 4/1 went off at 9/2 and romped home a good winner. He's been tipped as a potential Ultima Handicap Chase winner on the opening day of the Festival, but he looks an out-and-out stayer to me and when he was outpaced about a mile out that underlined the fact. My other selection, Caribean Boy, was very disappointing - he looked to struggle on the ground and perhaps the race came too soon after his recent win (when we were on him).