Cheltenham Festival update - 12th Feb

Following on from Saturday's blog, I'm continuing with a look through the Cheltenham Festival programme in the search for value.  It's too early to consider the handicaps, there will be plenty of time to consider those when the declarations are made.

The 2nd-day of the Festival (13th March) opens with the

Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle over 2m5f

For a long time this was the premier novice hurdle of the season, but since Faugheen won in 2014, the winners of this race haven't really progressed as expected.  The race does illustrate the transfer of power from England to Ireland as in the past 10 years, there's only been one winner of the race trained in England and that was Willoughby Court in 2017.

I think Mullins will run Ballyburn in this race rather than the "Supreme" on the opening day. Why? Because this looks a weaker race, especially as Caldwell Potter is not running at the Festival; as such, Mullins trains all the main contenders. Slade Steel (de Bromhead) doesn't look anywhere near good enough; Mystical Power (Mullins) is more likely to run in the Supreme; as will Ile Atlantique (Mullins). As for Readin Tommy Wrong (Mullins) while he will likely run in this race, I feel he is more of a 3-miler and he also holds an entry for the "Albert Bartlett". 

Skybet offer odds of 2/1 (NRNB) on Ballyburn, and I'm taking that.

Brown Advisory Novice Chaser over 3-mile

This race, and the NH Chase on the opening day, look fairly open.  Mullins has only won this twice in the past 10 years, and his likely 1st-string Grangeclare West is apparently out for the season.  I'm expecting Fact To File (Mullins) to go for the "Turners" on Day-3 over 2m4f, and (with Gaelic Warrior seemingly unable to run left-handed) his main chance in this race was expected to be  one of  Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner, or Embassy Gardens.  

Given how Nick Rockett and Minella Cocooner flopped yesterday, it should be Embassy Gardens and I'm tempted to take the 11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365.

However, the English trainers have a strong hand for this race in Stay Away Fay (PF Nicholls) and Grey Dawning (Dan Skelton). Both of these are proven at the trip and have very strong form.  The current odds offered on both Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning are poor value, and I reckon you will be able to obtain around 9/2 - 11/2 on the day; and there's a strong possibility that Stay Away Fay will go for the NH Chase over 3m6f.

Right now, I'm only interested in the 11/2 (NRNB) offered by Bet365 on Embassy Gardens.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

It's near impossible to consider any other horse other than El Fabiolo winning this, and if he doesn't it will be Jonbon. However, in jump racing nothing is certain, as Jonbon proved LTO - there's always a possibility of jumping errors, although I hope that doesn't happen. What could be 3rd? There's a lot of support for Edwardstone after his win at Newbury on Saturday, but I'm not sure he's at his best at Cheltenham, and last year's runner-up Captain Guinness (currently 20/1 with Skybet) could be the one.

The only other non-handicap race (I'm not looking at the Cross Country race which should be run at another track and has no place at the Festival) is the "Bumper" but I'd want odds of 5/1 just to name a runner in the race, never mind the eventual winner.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - general update (10th Feb)

I've started this blog several times over the past couple of weeks, but then left it unfinished as the antepost odds available do not accommodate enough "risk" element to cover the potential of not running in the race on the day.  The "Non Runner, No Bet" (NRNB) odds are truly pathetic and I'm fairly sure that better value will be available at the Festival in March. So what's this blog about? Essentially, I'm going to try and narrow down the entries to identify the likely runners, and in the process endeavour to find some value - if it exists.

Tuesday 12th March

Supreme Novices' Hurdle:

Current fav is Ballyburn (WP Mullins) and while he looks a capable winner at this stage, I think he's a better horse at 2m4f+ (like his full brothers) and so he's more likely to go for the 2m5f hurdle on Day-2.  Mystical Power is a more likely runner for Mullins, but his form doesn't appear strong enough to suggest he's a likely winner. I'm expecting Mullins to have several runners in the race, one being Mirazur West a full-brother of Ferny Hollow, and another being Mistergif an expensive purchase given a run on 30th Jan. While you cannot ignore Henderson entries in this race, what we've seen of Jeriko Di Reponet does not suggest he's good enough to win this race.  With Gordon Elliott losing Caldwell Potter (now with Paul Nicholls) his main hope is Firefox, and this one beat Ballyburn over 2-mile on 02Dec. Firefox was then disappointing stepped-up to 2m4f, but if he lines-up for this and is in top form, he could go close. it would not surprise me to see Mullins have 4 or 5 runners in this race, and Ile Atlantique ticks a lot of boxes, and was only just btn LTO: on form, he looks the strongest Mullins entry after Ballyburn.Of the other entries, the JP McManus owned No Flies On Him could be anything as he won a good race on his sole hurdle run to date. Caldwell Potter may run in this race, but it would not surprise me to see him not run again this season, as his future is as a chaser.

I'm tempted to take NRNB odds about:

Mistergif @ 25/1 (Bet365); Ile Atlantique @ 16/1 (Bet365) and Firefox @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Arkle Novice Chase

I been taking a long-look at this race, and (even before the Dublin Racing Festival) I was liking the look of Found A Fifty and Il Etait Temps. Since they finished 1st & 2nd last weekend, I've taken the odds available about the pair, and will plump for one or the other closer to the Festival.  Found A Fifty hasn't run a bad race all season, and looks to want more of a stamina test in time, as such I'm leaning more towards him as my Arkle selection. Despite winning LTO, in my mind Il Etait Temps may be best suited by a flatter track than Cheltenham, and I see him more of an Aintree horse. What of Marine Nationale?  Beaten horses at the DRF tend not to recover and win at Cheltenham - it's not impossible, but it's unlikely. If (like Sizing Europe in 2010) he'd fallen at the final fence when looking the likely winner, I could take a more positive view - but he emptied out quickly suggesting something was amiss (breathing problem?).  One to keep an eye out for is 

My Mate Mozzie: he probably has too much speed, and not enough stamina to win the Arkle, but he looks to be well handicapped.

I'm on Il Etait Temps @ 5/1 (NRNB) and Found A Fifty @ 6/1 (NRNB)

Champion Hurdle

With the front two in the betting Constitution Hill and State Man, unlikely to be beaten by another on the day, there's the 3rd place spot to find.  I was all over Bob Olinger and had an eachway voucher at 33/1 on him - but he now goes straight to Aintree.  Zanahiyr filled 3rd spot last year, but is likely to remain chasing. However, Gordon Elliott has able deputies in Irish Point and Pied Piper, and both look more than capable of taking 3rd in this race. I need to find something similar in another Festival race for a long-odds eachway double.

 

Mares Hurdle 

I really cannot see Lossiemouth running in the Champion Hurdle unless State Man can't take part in that race, and she looks a near certainty to win this. She cannot be opposed.

National Hunt Chase

At this moment, I'm still surprised that Flooring Porter is the 3rd fav as I'd be surprised if he takes part. This race still looks fairly fluid regards what's going to take part, but the "Ten Up" Chase at Naas on Sunday 11th Feb is usually a good pointer. I'm taking Minella Cocooner to beat his stablemate Nick Rockett and leap to joint-fav for the NH Chase - he's currently 8/1 (NRNB). I'm not convinced (yet) by Embassy Gardens, and this looks a good opportunity to lock-in some value.

More to come...