Yesterday’s horseracing
We had yet another 2nd with the blog selection yesterday, when BUFFALO BOB was unable to go with the eventual winner (Summery Justice @ 16/1) after the last fence. Hopefully, you took the 13/2 with Victor Chandler as that gave us a 0.15pt profit, as the SP for BUFFALO BOB was just 7/2.
That means the blog is now on minus 3.75pts for November.
To surmise, the November selections have been:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit
With two wins from just three chases, SUMMERY JUSTICE is one to take note of for the next few runs; and perhaps it is a sign of a return to form for Venetia Williams (just 2 wins from 33 runners since 1st October).
Earlier on the card, WYMOTT won his debut novice chase very comfortably, but the time was nothing special and – for me – the jury is still out on Festival chances.
At Huntingdon, both Victory Surge and MEDERMIT were beaten. MEDERMIT did not finish his novice chase having refused to jump the 6th fence when his jockey reported the horse was distracted by an individual stood close to the fence. It can only happen in racing!
Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Ludlow and Taunton.
There is a good class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow at 2:00 to get stuck into, over 3-mile. Holmwood Legend did not stay 3-mile as a hurdler and there’s no reason therefore that he will as a chaser at this level. Key Cutter jumped well enough here on his chase debut last month, but this looks a tough assignment for him. For me, it has to be MIDNIGHT HAZE who ran 3 cracking races last season (I don’t count his runs in May’09 before the summer break – I’m “old school”), winning two and coming 2nd to Far More Serious. That defeat was no disgrace, as MIDNIGHT HAZE was trying to give FMS 2lb, as FMS was running-off OR104. Now, FMS is rated OR131 and that suggests that MIDNIGHT HAZE on OR120 today is well ahead of the handicapper. Ludlow being a right-handed track means that several here may find the track difficult to handle, but the selection has won going RH at Kempton and Wincanton. We’ve just missed 5/1, so the odds of 9/2 generally should be taken.
At Taunton, previous blog selection (now a 2-time loser) JUSTABOUT goes again in the 2:40. It’s over a trip just under 3-mile (so that could be stretching his stamina) but the going is “good”. He’s dropped 3lb to OR93 and this is a very weak race, so he could just be a tad better than anything here, and he was going well on 7th Oct till hitting the 2nd-last, and the going was far too soft for him LTO. At odds of 7/2 for this he looks value.
Selections:
Ludlow 2:00 MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win @ 9/2 (available generally)
Taunton 2:40 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 7/2 (available generally)
Final note: I am looking forward to the chase debut of LAKE LEGEND this afternoon for trainer Alan King – this could be a decent novice chaser.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
Cracking chase h'cap at Bangor
Yesterday’s horseracing
I completely missed yesterday’s jump meeting at Lingfield. I was sure I’d read on the internet that the meeting had failed an early inspection and was abandoned (must admit we had some torrential rain here in the South-East).
At Exeter, Emma Lavelle won with another promising novice hurdler in HIGHLAND VALLEY, who looks better than his OR120 rated full brother Scampi Boy (who is with Paul Webber). The going was fairly testing at Exeter, despite it being recorded as soft on the hurdles course and good-to-soft on the chase course. Paul Nicholls sent out a couple of novice chase winners here, including ROYAL CHARM who had previously comprehensively beaten James De Vassy in a h’cap hurdle at Exeter last December (JDV then went on to run 3rd on the Coral Cup h’cap at the Festival). He’s my idea of an ‘Arkle’ winner at this stage of the season, and a 20/1 quote (Blue Sq) looks fair.
When Peter Bowen heads north then take note, as he’s got decent strike-rates up there: Carlisle (33%), Cartmel (20%), Hexham (19%), Haydock (19%), Kelso (31%), Newcastle (23%), and Sedgefield is no exception (23%) and he had a winner there y’day in Pure Faith @ 9/2, his only runner of the day.
There were no selections yesterday, so the blog is still on minus 3.90pts for November.
Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Bangor and Huntingdon.
The opening novice chase at Bangor looks a cracker, with the likes of Alfie Sherrin and Wymott. Burton Port won this race last season, and the winner today will probably be just as good. Watch and savour.
In the 3-mile h’cap chase, Major Malarkey will be hard to beat if he doesn’t “bounce” following his successful return from a long break last week. On the basis that he will bounce, there are only a couple that will appreciate today’s trip and going and are likely to come-to-hand this early in the season; Buffalo Bob and Rate Of Knots. The Vicar has also dropped to a good mark (from OR134 this time last season to OR125 today) but his form suggests that this trip is beyond him. Rate Of Knots has all his best form going right-handed; so for me it’s BUFFALO BOB @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler) who will love this going and trip.
At Huntingdon, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks like going to VICTORY SURGE but at just odds of 5/4 he’s too short for me, especially as Hobbs returns Pancake to chasing on a mark of OR115 (was OR132 in March 2009). Medermit should have another win under his belt in the novice chase barring accidents.
Selection:
Bangor 2:10 BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Looking to the weekend, the Paddy Power Chase on Saturday looks a strong renewal. I’m sure that were Ruby Walsh fit and well, he’d be on Poquelin but his place has now been taken by the 5lb claimer Ian Popham. I don’t think that’s a bad thing (Popham won the Badger Chases on Meanus Dandy last weekend), but the market has Poquelin solid at 12’s. The current fav is Long Run @ 100/30, but for me that is far too short a price for a horse that was not the finished article last season, and clearly did not stay the 3-mile trip of the RSA at the Festival. I also wonder how the horse will cope with 19 other opponents all wanting to win the race. It will be a big learning curve for the 5yo, and I would much rather be on Henderson’s other entry, MAD MAX who has Barry Geraghty in the saddle. MAD MAX will love this trip, loves Cheltenham and in my opinion is still potentially a OR165+ horse; odds of 10/1 are available (was 12’s yesterday) and with Poquelin as top-weight he’s only got 11st 5lb to carry.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
I completely missed yesterday’s jump meeting at Lingfield. I was sure I’d read on the internet that the meeting had failed an early inspection and was abandoned (must admit we had some torrential rain here in the South-East).
At Exeter, Emma Lavelle won with another promising novice hurdler in HIGHLAND VALLEY, who looks better than his OR120 rated full brother Scampi Boy (who is with Paul Webber). The going was fairly testing at Exeter, despite it being recorded as soft on the hurdles course and good-to-soft on the chase course. Paul Nicholls sent out a couple of novice chase winners here, including ROYAL CHARM who had previously comprehensively beaten James De Vassy in a h’cap hurdle at Exeter last December (JDV then went on to run 3rd on the Coral Cup h’cap at the Festival). He’s my idea of an ‘Arkle’ winner at this stage of the season, and a 20/1 quote (Blue Sq) looks fair.
When Peter Bowen heads north then take note, as he’s got decent strike-rates up there: Carlisle (33%), Cartmel (20%), Hexham (19%), Haydock (19%), Kelso (31%), Newcastle (23%), and Sedgefield is no exception (23%) and he had a winner there y’day in Pure Faith @ 9/2, his only runner of the day.
There were no selections yesterday, so the blog is still on minus 3.90pts for November.
Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Bangor and Huntingdon.
The opening novice chase at Bangor looks a cracker, with the likes of Alfie Sherrin and Wymott. Burton Port won this race last season, and the winner today will probably be just as good. Watch and savour.
In the 3-mile h’cap chase, Major Malarkey will be hard to beat if he doesn’t “bounce” following his successful return from a long break last week. On the basis that he will bounce, there are only a couple that will appreciate today’s trip and going and are likely to come-to-hand this early in the season; Buffalo Bob and Rate Of Knots. The Vicar has also dropped to a good mark (from OR134 this time last season to OR125 today) but his form suggests that this trip is beyond him. Rate Of Knots has all his best form going right-handed; so for me it’s BUFFALO BOB @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler) who will love this going and trip.
At Huntingdon, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks like going to VICTORY SURGE but at just odds of 5/4 he’s too short for me, especially as Hobbs returns Pancake to chasing on a mark of OR115 (was OR132 in March 2009). Medermit should have another win under his belt in the novice chase barring accidents.
Selection:
Bangor 2:10 BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Looking to the weekend, the Paddy Power Chase on Saturday looks a strong renewal. I’m sure that were Ruby Walsh fit and well, he’d be on Poquelin but his place has now been taken by the 5lb claimer Ian Popham. I don’t think that’s a bad thing (Popham won the Badger Chases on Meanus Dandy last weekend), but the market has Poquelin solid at 12’s. The current fav is Long Run @ 100/30, but for me that is far too short a price for a horse that was not the finished article last season, and clearly did not stay the 3-mile trip of the RSA at the Festival. I also wonder how the horse will cope with 19 other opponents all wanting to win the race. It will be a big learning curve for the 5yo, and I would much rather be on Henderson’s other entry, MAD MAX who has Barry Geraghty in the saddle. MAD MAX will love this trip, loves Cheltenham and in my opinion is still potentially a OR165+ horse; odds of 10/1 are available (was 12’s yesterday) and with Poquelin as top-weight he’s only got 11st 5lb to carry.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
Early Tote Ten To Follow thoughts
Not much time today as getting back into things at the office after having a day-off yesterday for my birthday. Me and the girlfriend went to Tunbridge Wells for the weekend and stayed at the Hotel Du Vin in the town. Must admit, I was a bit disappointed with HDV. Couldn’t fault the room, nor the quality of the food and drink – but the service was a bit lack-lustre. Service is what separates the big hotel chains from the “boutique” brands. Perhaps it was just this hotel, but they need to pull their socks up or risk becoming another anonymous hotel chain.
We did visit a cracking good pub in Groombridge tho’, and I’m thinking of starting another blog on the relative merits of pubs in the area.
Today’s Horseracing
There are a couple of meetings today, at Exeter and Sedgefield.
Unfortunately, I really am not excited about anything at either of those meetings, so not selections today.
Looking back at the weekend, I read on the RTE website that Noel Meade was unsure of the reason for the nosebleed to PANDORAMA on Saturday that caused him to be withdrawn before the start of that race. So, it will be a racecourse gallop and then straight into the Hennessey.
Probably like most reading this blog, I am formulating my entry for the Tote Ten To Follow competition. I hope to be able to get off to a flying start by having the Paddy Power Chase winner (race being run this Saturday) in my lists, but it will not be easy as it looks highly competitive. Unfortunately, JONCOL put up a poor display of jumping on Sunday. I’m hoping that his canny trainer Paul Nolan went into that race with his horse having done little at home and that when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile (or thereabouts) that there will be a transformation of form.
Also, yesterday, the Horse Alert List had a runner with PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE. Unfortunately, due to the race conditions, he had little chance of beating Big Fella Thanks (OR151) off level weights when he is only rated OR140. Even so, he ran very well up to the 2nd-last suggesting his OR is perhaps on the lenient side. The winner of the race HEY BIG SPENDER is a cracking horse and will be on the verge of Gold Cup standard next March. He’s won his last 3 races with 11st 10lbs or more on his back and so connections will probably be undaunted about having to give weight away in handicaps this season. He is one I’d be seriously considering as an inclusion on my 10-2-Follow list.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
We did visit a cracking good pub in Groombridge tho’, and I’m thinking of starting another blog on the relative merits of pubs in the area.
Today’s Horseracing
There are a couple of meetings today, at Exeter and Sedgefield.
Unfortunately, I really am not excited about anything at either of those meetings, so not selections today.
Looking back at the weekend, I read on the RTE website that Noel Meade was unsure of the reason for the nosebleed to PANDORAMA on Saturday that caused him to be withdrawn before the start of that race. So, it will be a racecourse gallop and then straight into the Hennessey.
Probably like most reading this blog, I am formulating my entry for the Tote Ten To Follow competition. I hope to be able to get off to a flying start by having the Paddy Power Chase winner (race being run this Saturday) in my lists, but it will not be easy as it looks highly competitive. Unfortunately, JONCOL put up a poor display of jumping on Sunday. I’m hoping that his canny trainer Paul Nolan went into that race with his horse having done little at home and that when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile (or thereabouts) that there will be a transformation of form.
Also, yesterday, the Horse Alert List had a runner with PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE. Unfortunately, due to the race conditions, he had little chance of beating Big Fella Thanks (OR151) off level weights when he is only rated OR140. Even so, he ran very well up to the 2nd-last suggesting his OR is perhaps on the lenient side. The winner of the race HEY BIG SPENDER is a cracking horse and will be on the verge of Gold Cup standard next March. He’s won his last 3 races with 11st 10lbs or more on his back and so connections will probably be undaunted about having to give weight away in handicaps this season. He is one I’d be seriously considering as an inclusion on my 10-2-Follow list.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Sunday, 7 November 2010
The Sunday Supplement
There was just the one selection yesterday – PANDORAMA – tho’ there were some good words about a few others that were running.
What was perhaps the biggest news was the successful reappearance of KAUTO STAR at Down Royal. He never put a foot wrong and comprehensively beat what looked to be good opposition in Sizing Europe and China Rock. However, that news was supplanted in the headlines by Ruby Walsh suffering a broken leg which must surely put him in some doubt over having the ride on Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. However, full marks to KAUTO STAR and he is not showing any signs of losing his powers just yet. Where now for Sizing Europe? Personally, I would drop him back in trip to the 2-mile division, but I expect connections will aim him at the Ryanair at the Festival. In the next race the Nicholls/Walsh partnership notched up a quick double with The Nightingale. My blog selection PANDORAMA was withdrawn at the post. At the time, PANDORAMA was the 6/4 fav and I really do think he would have given The Nightingale a lot more to do, as he won the race in a canter.
At Wincanton, the Elite Hurdle was ripped apart by NEARBY, who has now won his last 3 hurdles over 28-days and already has been raised 20lbs by the handicapper, but must now be OR150+. When he won at Aintree on 9th October I marked him as one to follow, but thought the 10lb he went up was too harsh. He won off his revised mark on 23rd October and went up another 10lb, and I thought that too was a bit harsh. Where he goes now is anyone’s guess, but his trainer Phil Hobbs certainly knows how to handle hurdlers and he is not afraid of using claiming jockeys either. Full marks to him. As for Australia Day, its back to the drawing board as he ran a shocker and his hurdling went to pieces.
In the Badger Ales Trophy, Paul Nicholls had certainly better prepared MEANUS DANDY for this, but he really had to fight for it to beat an old fav of mine BUENA VISTA. I was correct in swerving I’MONCLOUDNINE as he just missed-out on 3rd place by a head. The performance of the race tho’ was BUENA VISTA. I reckon he will again be aimed at a Festival handicap, and now we know he can jump a fence at pace he must be on the longterm shortlist as he loves it at Cheltenham and he always gets the going he loves there, which is “proper” good going.
Horses tho’, they love to take you to the cleaners. Who remembers me writing this on 13th October?
“won her opening couple of races last autumn and this trip is right up her street as is the going. She was highly tried last winter, and lost nothing in defeat but has now slipped back to her last winning mark of OR125”. That was about FIT TO DRIVE, and she clearly needed the run as she wasn’t race-fit. She ran an improved race on 23rd October, but yesterday when fully fit, and dropped to OR119 (how did I miss that!) she won @ 14/1 by 10-lengths and must surely be capable of a follow-up.
The only other horse mentioned on the blog yesterday was DOUBLE DIZZY and this race was perhaps over at least a mile too short for him these-days. Cheltenham over 3-mile-plus shold see a much improved display.
Despite there being 3 good meetings for a Sunday at Ffos Las, Hereford and Market Rasen, I am having a day-off from racing and – as it’s my birthday tomorrow – I’ll be having tomorrow off as well. However, I may have a sneaky wager on SIR WINSTON at Market Rasen as he never ran a bad race last season and won on his seasonal debut and this is Vic Dartnall’s only runner today (he’s sent just 5 to Market Rasen and had 2 winners) and tho’ I respect the chance of recent winner Bobby Bullock this week, I never think any horse is an odds-on chance when chasing, and 6/1 on SIR WINSTON looks fair.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
What was perhaps the biggest news was the successful reappearance of KAUTO STAR at Down Royal. He never put a foot wrong and comprehensively beat what looked to be good opposition in Sizing Europe and China Rock. However, that news was supplanted in the headlines by Ruby Walsh suffering a broken leg which must surely put him in some doubt over having the ride on Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. However, full marks to KAUTO STAR and he is not showing any signs of losing his powers just yet. Where now for Sizing Europe? Personally, I would drop him back in trip to the 2-mile division, but I expect connections will aim him at the Ryanair at the Festival. In the next race the Nicholls/Walsh partnership notched up a quick double with The Nightingale. My blog selection PANDORAMA was withdrawn at the post. At the time, PANDORAMA was the 6/4 fav and I really do think he would have given The Nightingale a lot more to do, as he won the race in a canter.
At Wincanton, the Elite Hurdle was ripped apart by NEARBY, who has now won his last 3 hurdles over 28-days and already has been raised 20lbs by the handicapper, but must now be OR150+. When he won at Aintree on 9th October I marked him as one to follow, but thought the 10lb he went up was too harsh. He won off his revised mark on 23rd October and went up another 10lb, and I thought that too was a bit harsh. Where he goes now is anyone’s guess, but his trainer Phil Hobbs certainly knows how to handle hurdlers and he is not afraid of using claiming jockeys either. Full marks to him. As for Australia Day, its back to the drawing board as he ran a shocker and his hurdling went to pieces.
In the Badger Ales Trophy, Paul Nicholls had certainly better prepared MEANUS DANDY for this, but he really had to fight for it to beat an old fav of mine BUENA VISTA. I was correct in swerving I’MONCLOUDNINE as he just missed-out on 3rd place by a head. The performance of the race tho’ was BUENA VISTA. I reckon he will again be aimed at a Festival handicap, and now we know he can jump a fence at pace he must be on the longterm shortlist as he loves it at Cheltenham and he always gets the going he loves there, which is “proper” good going.
Horses tho’, they love to take you to the cleaners. Who remembers me writing this on 13th October?
“won her opening couple of races last autumn and this trip is right up her street as is the going. She was highly tried last winter, and lost nothing in defeat but has now slipped back to her last winning mark of OR125”. That was about FIT TO DRIVE, and she clearly needed the run as she wasn’t race-fit. She ran an improved race on 23rd October, but yesterday when fully fit, and dropped to OR119 (how did I miss that!) she won @ 14/1 by 10-lengths and must surely be capable of a follow-up.
The only other horse mentioned on the blog yesterday was DOUBLE DIZZY and this race was perhaps over at least a mile too short for him these-days. Cheltenham over 3-mile-plus shold see a much improved display.
Despite there being 3 good meetings for a Sunday at Ffos Las, Hereford and Market Rasen, I am having a day-off from racing and – as it’s my birthday tomorrow – I’ll be having tomorrow off as well. However, I may have a sneaky wager on SIR WINSTON at Market Rasen as he never ran a bad race last season and won on his seasonal debut and this is Vic Dartnall’s only runner today (he’s sent just 5 to Market Rasen and had 2 winners) and tho’ I respect the chance of recent winner Bobby Bullock this week, I never think any horse is an odds-on chance when chasing, and 6/1 on SIR WINSTON looks fair.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)