A long-shot for the Paddy Power

Yesterday’s horseracing
No selections on the blog yesterday, but anyone who follows my tweets on twitter will know that at about 12:30pm, I tweeted the following;
“Is it just me, but is LACDOUDAL looking a decent wager in the X-country? 3rd at Fest, stays all day and last won on Good-to-Firm”
LACDOUDAL won a thrilling race at 9/2, having been 6/1 when I made the tweet.
I am not taking that winner into my profit and loss calculation, so the November total remains up 4.25pts for the month

I was very impressed with DAVE’S DREAM in winning the 2-mile handicap as he slaughtered this field once they started downhill, and skipped over the final 2 fences like they were hurdles. CUE CARD also impressed, and he is now 3/1 for the Supreme Novices at the Festival and (unbelievably) is 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. Please, do not be tempted by those Champion Hurdle odds as he’s not even the best 4yo hurdler we’ve seen this autumn – that honour goes to Clerks Choice currently rated OR162. Nicky Henderson had a double on the day when Aegean Dawn won, and that’s 4 winners from 8 runners in 3 days – does it auger well for Saturday? By-the-way, AEGEAN DAWN absolutely hacked-up.

Today’s Horseracing
There are three jump meetings today, at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby, but again, all focus will be on Cheltenham. The going is heavy at Uttoxeter, so I’ll give that meeting a miss. At Wetherby, PISTOL BASC should maintain the advantage over Archie’s Wish despite being 7lb worse-off as - over this shorter trip - he is proven and has that turn-of-foot required to win races. Odds of 9/4 look value.

Onto Cheltenham, and the winner of the opening 3yo juvenile hurdle should be noted as some really good horses have won this race in past years. Similarly, the next race on the card, a 3-mile novice chase has also been won by some really good horses, including Comply Or Die and Albertas Run. I would not want to call the winner of this, tho’ Wayward Prince looks destined for the top-table.

The next is the 3m 3f & 110yds h’cap chase, a real endurance test. Do not ignore young horses; in the past 8 years it’s been won by 2 x 5yo’s and 2 x 6yo’s. That said, the 10yo Character Building last won here when taking the Kim Muir at the 2009 Festival, and this trip and going will really suit him. He’s fit from racing 3-weeks ago and has the master in the saddle, AP McCoy. Lacdoudal winning y’day gave a big boost to his conqueror Midnight Chase, but I fear the rain-softened going may catch him out. Ogee has won 3 of his 6 chases, and was almost certainly over-cooked when he last ran at Aintree. This course, the trip and going will all suit him, and he goes well fresh. Off OR142, it may have been a mistake to leave him out of my 10-2-Follow entries. One off my horse alert list is Gentle Ranger, and he did not enjoy the soft going LTO, but he runs really well at Cheltenham and I prefer him to the other Pipe entry, Junior who may be daunted by this number of opponents (he’s never won a jump race with more than 7 runners). Any Currency will be staying on for the final mile, but will he catch the leaders? For me, GENTLE RANGER at 16/1 is the value, especially as David Pipe reckons he could be a Welsh National winner come December.
As this horse is already on my horse alert list and subject to a standard 1pt eachway wager, I will not be doubling-up with a selection stake as well. I expect the 1st-4 to feature Ogee, Character Building, Any Currency and GENTLE RANGER.

The feature race of the day is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and it is eagerly awaited. There are 20 runners; all primed to win this race, so finding the winner is no walk in the park. Winning form at Cheltenham is a big-plus factor for this race (16 of the last 20 winners of the PPower has won previously at Cheltenham). Of the course winners, SUNNYHILLBOY at 12/1 looks to be the best value, but what puts me off is that only a handful of jockeys have ridden the winners of this race in the past 10 years; McCoy x 3, Timmy Murphy x 2, with top jocks Mick Fitzgerald, Barry Geraghty and Paddy Brennan filling the saddle on the other years. The only other jock being AJ McNamara last year on Tranquil Sea, but that horse loved the mud and got it last year. Because jockeyship is so important in this race, I am swaying away from the fav Long Run, and erring towards MAD MAX, GREAT ENDEAVOUR, and FINGER ON THE PULSE (Pidgeon Island is too unpredictable). MAD MAX was running a cracker in the Arkle at the Festival till hitting the 2nd-last hard, but he recovered and ran on. He is my idea of the winner, and I expect Sunnyhillboy, Great Endeavour, and Fingeronthepulse to fill the places. Long Run I think will struggle for several reasons; his jockey’s inexperience, and the fact that it has so little racing amongst big, competitive fields here in the UK.
Note: some bookmakers are paying place-odds on 5 places – Ladbrokes, Betfred and Paddy Power, plus some online bookies.

Selection:
Cheltenham 2:35 MAD MAX, 1pt eachway @ 9/1
(Ladbrokes, 5-places, best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 2:35 FINGERONTHEPULSE, ½pt eachway @ 22/1
(Ladbrokes, 5-places, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 3pts staked

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

Two selections : two winners at 9/2 and 7/2

Yesterday’s horseracing
Can’t get any better than it was yesterday!
Just the 2 selections and they both won. MIDNIGHT HAZE was heavily supported in the market from the early morning (5/1 had just gone when I posted the blog at 9:50am, and I advised taking the 9/2 available) and the eventual SP was a miserly 9/4. Even so, the result was never in doubt – leading all the way, and coming home well clear.
Next up was a previous two-time loser for the blog, JUSTABOUT. If he had not have won this race then he clearly was un-genuine. Again making-all, he nearly lost it looking tired over the last couple of fences to win at an SP of 3/1 (advised on here @ 7/2).
MIDNIGHT HAZE can probably be followed for his next race, but I’m calling it quits with JUSTABOUT.

The blog went into the day minus 3.75pts for November, but after winning 8pts yesterday the November total is now 4.25pts up for the month.

To surmise, the November selections have been:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit
11th November: MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win, WON @ 9/2 – 4.50pts profit
11th November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, WON @ 7/2 – 3.50pts profit

Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Cheltenham and Newcastle, but really, all focus will be on Cheltenham.
There is only one horse at Newcastle that takes my eye, and that is THE KNOXS in the novice chase at 1:05. He is odds-on at 4/5, but I cannot see this promising chaser being beaten.
Onto Cheltenham, and today’s meeting is one for watching and making notes.
The opening amateur riders’ race is all about jockeyship, as Sam Twiston-Davies showed last year. One thing to note is that no horse older than 8yo has won in the past 5 years. QHILIMAR improved with every run last season, only failing to stay the 26f when last seen. This trip and going is more to his liking, but he did fall the only time when ridden by an amateur last season.
We will know a lot more about the potential aspirations of CUE CARD after he runs in the 1:50.
I’m going to give the rest of the card a watching brief and enjoy the afternoon, especially the novice chase at 4:05 which looks like it could prove a decent “trial” for the Arkle.

So, personally I will be concentrating now on entering the Tote 10-2-Follow before noon, and then looking at tomorrow’s tremendous card at Cheltenham and trying to find the winner of the Paddy Power.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

It can only happen in racing

Yesterday’s horseracing
We had yet another 2nd with the blog selection yesterday, when BUFFALO BOB was unable to go with the eventual winner (Summery Justice @ 16/1) after the last fence. Hopefully, you took the 13/2 with Victor Chandler as that gave us a 0.15pt profit, as the SP for BUFFALO BOB was just 7/2.
That means the blog is now on minus 3.75pts for November.

To surmise, the November selections have been:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit

With two wins from just three chases, SUMMERY JUSTICE is one to take note of for the next few runs; and perhaps it is a sign of a return to form for Venetia Williams (just 2 wins from 33 runners since 1st October).
Earlier on the card, WYMOTT won his debut novice chase very comfortably, but the time was nothing special and – for me – the jury is still out on Festival chances.
At Huntingdon, both Victory Surge and MEDERMIT were beaten. MEDERMIT did not finish his novice chase having refused to jump the 6th fence when his jockey reported the horse was distracted by an individual stood close to the fence. It can only happen in racing!

Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Ludlow and Taunton.
There is a good class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow at 2:00 to get stuck into, over 3-mile. Holmwood Legend did not stay 3-mile as a hurdler and there’s no reason therefore that he will as a chaser at this level. Key Cutter jumped well enough here on his chase debut last month, but this looks a tough assignment for him. For me, it has to be MIDNIGHT HAZE who ran 3 cracking races last season (I don’t count his runs in May’09 before the summer break – I’m “old school”), winning two and coming 2nd to Far More Serious. That defeat was no disgrace, as MIDNIGHT HAZE was trying to give FMS 2lb, as FMS was running-off OR104. Now, FMS is rated OR131 and that suggests that MIDNIGHT HAZE on OR120 today is well ahead of the handicapper. Ludlow being a right-handed track means that several here may find the track difficult to handle, but the selection has won going RH at Kempton and Wincanton. We’ve just missed 5/1, so the odds of 9/2 generally should be taken.

At Taunton, previous blog selection (now a 2-time loser) JUSTABOUT goes again in the 2:40. It’s over a trip just under 3-mile (so that could be stretching his stamina) but the going is “good”. He’s dropped 3lb to OR93 and this is a very weak race, so he could just be a tad better than anything here, and he was going well on 7th Oct till hitting the 2nd-last, and the going was far too soft for him LTO. At odds of 7/2 for this he looks value.

Selections:
Ludlow 2:00 MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win @ 9/2 (available generally)
Taunton 2:40 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 7/2 (available generally)

Final note: I am looking forward to the chase debut of LAKE LEGEND this afternoon for trainer Alan King – this could be a decent novice chaser.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

Cracking chase h'cap at Bangor

Yesterday’s horseracing
I completely missed yesterday’s jump meeting at Lingfield. I was sure I’d read on the internet that the meeting had failed an early inspection and was abandoned (must admit we had some torrential rain here in the South-East).
At Exeter, Emma Lavelle won with another promising novice hurdler in HIGHLAND VALLEY, who looks better than his OR120 rated full brother Scampi Boy (who is with Paul Webber). The going was fairly testing at Exeter, despite it being recorded as soft on the hurdles course and good-to-soft on the chase course. Paul Nicholls sent out a couple of novice chase winners here, including ROYAL CHARM who had previously comprehensively beaten James De Vassy in a h’cap hurdle at Exeter last December (JDV then went on to run 3rd on the Coral Cup h’cap at the Festival). He’s my idea of an ‘Arkle’ winner at this stage of the season, and a 20/1 quote (Blue Sq) looks fair.
When Peter Bowen heads north then take note, as he’s got decent strike-rates up there: Carlisle (33%), Cartmel (20%), Hexham (19%), Haydock (19%), Kelso (31%), Newcastle (23%), and Sedgefield is no exception (23%) and he had a winner there y’day in Pure Faith @ 9/2, his only runner of the day.

There were no selections yesterday, so the blog is still on minus 3.90pts for November.

Today’s Horseracing
There are two jump meetings today, at Bangor and Huntingdon.
The opening novice chase at Bangor looks a cracker, with the likes of Alfie Sherrin and Wymott. Burton Port won this race last season, and the winner today will probably be just as good. Watch and savour.
In the 3-mile h’cap chase, Major Malarkey will be hard to beat if he doesn’t “bounce” following his successful return from a long break last week. On the basis that he will bounce, there are only a couple that will appreciate today’s trip and going and are likely to come-to-hand this early in the season; Buffalo Bob and Rate Of Knots. The Vicar has also dropped to a good mark (from OR134 this time last season to OR125 today) but his form suggests that this trip is beyond him. Rate Of Knots has all his best form going right-handed; so for me it’s BUFFALO BOB @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler) who will love this going and trip.
At Huntingdon, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks like going to VICTORY SURGE but at just odds of 5/4 he’s too short for me, especially as Hobbs returns Pancake to chasing on a mark of OR115 (was OR132 in March 2009). Medermit should have another win under his belt in the novice chase barring accidents.

Selection:
Bangor 2:10 BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Looking to the weekend, the Paddy Power Chase on Saturday looks a strong renewal. I’m sure that were Ruby Walsh fit and well, he’d be on Poquelin but his place has now been taken by the 5lb claimer Ian Popham. I don’t think that’s a bad thing (Popham won the Badger Chases on Meanus Dandy last weekend), but the market has Poquelin solid at 12’s. The current fav is Long Run @ 100/30, but for me that is far too short a price for a horse that was not the finished article last season, and clearly did not stay the 3-mile trip of the RSA at the Festival. I also wonder how the horse will cope with 19 other opponents all wanting to win the race. It will be a big learning curve for the 5yo, and I would much rather be on Henderson’s other entry, MAD MAX who has Barry Geraghty in the saddle. MAD MAX will love this trip, loves Cheltenham and in my opinion is still potentially a OR165+ horse; odds of 10/1 are available (was 12’s yesterday) and with Poquelin as top-weight he’s only got 11st 5lb to carry.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad