The Cheltenham Festival for 2019 commences tomorrow at 1:30pm when the most welcome roar in sport will herald the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
I've no real handle on the juvenile hurdle form, but having watched FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES demolish what was supposed to be top-class field on 26th January, after which he was considered a major player in the 4yo Triumph Hurdle market, I cannot understand how he's 11/2 for this race when he is in-receipt of the 8lb "4yo's" allowance. With a rating of OR150, he'd be competitive without the allowance, so if he's as good as he was in January then he will take all the beating.
The opening day is one of the best days' racing in the calendar, and while there are championship races on all the other 3 days of the Festival, the opening day is the best.
Straight after the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, we have the Arkle Novices Chase over 2-mile and how this race develops will depend on the effect of the weather the evening and through the night. A real rainstorm is expected and we could end up with soft ground in the morning, which would not be good for the likes of LALOR. If the ground is on the soft-side, it could pay to support a horse with the ability and stamina to stay 2m4f and there is a horse that's under the radar in this respect in DUC DES GENIEVRES trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend. This horse massacred a talented field of novices at Gowran on 16th February over the same C&D as the Grade 2 "Red Mills" Chase won by Monalee (with 2018 Gold Cup 3rd Anibale Fly in 2nd ) and he did it in a time that was considerably quicker. That's food for thought. So far, I've considered 3 horses capable of being involved in the finish of the "Arkle" and all 3 - Duc Des Genievres, Hardline, and Knocknanuss - go to post.
Yesterday I posted a preview of the "Ultima" Handicap Chase over 3m1f and came up with a shortlist of 3: UP FOR REVIEW, BEWARE THE BEAR and OLDGRANGEWOOD. Since posting, there has been an almighty market move for UP FOR REVIEW from 14/1 to 8/1 as the world and his dog cotton's on to the fact that this horse could be "chucked-in" running off just OR148. As I said to my old mate @EpsomAl yesterday afternoon "this horse could be another Total Recall" (Total Recall won the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase off OR147 and is now rated OR155).
I still think BEWARE THE BEAR has an excellent eachway chance, and if the rain stays away from Cheltenham (doubtful, but you never know) then OLDGRANGEWOOD will make a mockery of his 80/1 odds.
The disappointment of learning the declarations for Tuesday & Wednesday was learning that MORTAL was not in the 4-mile NH (Novices) Chase, and was running in the 3-mile RSA Novices Chase instead. The RSA Chase is a much tougher assignment for MORTAL and while I hold a 16/1 antepost voucher on his for the race, I doubt he's much chance of beating the market leaders.
I was glad to see MIN declared for the Champion Chase as that means he will not be in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday. Unfortunately, POLITOLOGUE has also been declared for the Champion Chase so my slim possibility of laying-off my antepost wager on his for the Ryanair has gone.
The final 3 races on the card on Wednesday: the Cross Country, the 2-mile Juvenile (4yo) handicap hurdle, and the Bumper; hold no real interest for me. So I will be leaving the office at about 4pm on Wednesday and driving to Cheltenham to meet friends old and new, drink a few beers and enjoy the atmosphere.
Monday, 11 March 2019
Sunday, 10 March 2019
Cheltenham 2019 - 2 days to go - ULTIMA CHASE H'cap
Just minutes after posting yesterdays blog, the twitter rumour went round that MONALEE was missing the Ryanair Chase and heading for the Gold Cup. Honestly, the only reason that I can think of taking the possible fav for the Ryanair Chase out of a race that he might well win and entering the Cheltenham Gold Cup which he almost certainly won't win is to give the owner the kudos of being in the paddock before the premier race of the festival.
This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we have 24 runners going to post and it is difficult to discount any of them. Since 2001, of the 17 winners, 8 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners. The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Horses aged 9yo or older are 2 wins from 102 runners in the past 10 years, whereas those aged 7yo & 8yo are 7 wins from 100 runners - last years winner COO STAR SIVOLA was the only 6yo winner.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult. That rules our COO STAR SIVOLA (88 days), NOBLE ENDEAVOUR (94 days), BIG RIVER (86 days) and SINGLEFARMPAYMENT (88 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out SIZING CODELCO (23 runs), ROYAL VACATION (15 runs), CALIPTO (16 runs), VINTAGE CLOUDS (15 runs), GENERAL PRINCIPLE (18 runs), FLYING ANGEL (17 runs), and CATAMARAN DU SEUIL (16 runs) .
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
LAKE VIEW LAD: won LTO (prestigious Rowland Meyrick handicap chase at Warwick on Boxing Day), and up 8lb to OR155 will need a career-best effort (capable of being involved in the Gold Cup) to win this race.
O O Seven: Only 1 win from 6 chase races at 3-mile, his best form is around 2m5f.
MINELLA ROCCO: was 2nd in 2017 Gold Cup, but not shown similar form since and it's a leap of faith to consider him a likely winner.
ACTIVIAL: Well beaten on only attempt at 3-mile as a novice chaser, and didn't stay on both attempts at 3-mile as a hurdler.
MISTER WHITAKER: never run beyond 2m5f before, not sure this is the right race to find out if he stays beyond 3-mile.
BEWARE THE BEAR: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race. He's 20/1 with Bet365.
MAGIC OF LIGHT: Probably will stay this 3m1f trip but handicap mark of OR149 looks tough.
CRUCIAL ROLE: Only 4 chase races, a 3-mile hurdle winner and won LTO over extended 2m6f on 25Feb, however he is prone to bleeding.
UP FOR REVIEW: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148. Currently 14/1 with Bet365.
GIVE ME A COPPER: Only had 3 chase runs, and 2 were in 2017 before returning off an 18 month break to run 4th on 02Feb over 3-mile. That form wasn't great and he needs to find 15lb to be involved in this, but trainer Paul Nicholls talks a good race!
WILLIE BOY: Did not look a 3-mile chaser when beaten on his 1st attempt at the trip LTO and OR145 looks a tough rating for him.
SHANTOU VILLAGE: Hasn't looked like a 3-mile chaser (beaten both attempts) and best at 2m5f.
OLDGRANGEWOOD: Run once (at Aintree) over 3m1f, and the soft ground probably beat him that day. So long as the ground isn't soft, he could well run a big race as he looks to have been prepared for this race. Currently he's 40/1 with BetVictor.
My shortlist of 3 is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1
And I've placed wagers on all three.
This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we have 24 runners going to post and it is difficult to discount any of them. Since 2001, of the 17 winners, 8 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners. The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Horses aged 9yo or older are 2 wins from 102 runners in the past 10 years, whereas those aged 7yo & 8yo are 7 wins from 100 runners - last years winner COO STAR SIVOLA was the only 6yo winner.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult. That rules our COO STAR SIVOLA (88 days), NOBLE ENDEAVOUR (94 days), BIG RIVER (86 days) and SINGLEFARMPAYMENT (88 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out SIZING CODELCO (23 runs), ROYAL VACATION (15 runs), CALIPTO (16 runs), VINTAGE CLOUDS (15 runs), GENERAL PRINCIPLE (18 runs), FLYING ANGEL (17 runs), and CATAMARAN DU SEUIL (16 runs) .
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
LAKE VIEW LAD: won LTO (prestigious Rowland Meyrick handicap chase at Warwick on Boxing Day), and up 8lb to OR155 will need a career-best effort (capable of being involved in the Gold Cup) to win this race.
O O Seven: Only 1 win from 6 chase races at 3-mile, his best form is around 2m5f.
MINELLA ROCCO: was 2nd in 2017 Gold Cup, but not shown similar form since and it's a leap of faith to consider him a likely winner.
ACTIVIAL: Well beaten on only attempt at 3-mile as a novice chaser, and didn't stay on both attempts at 3-mile as a hurdler.
MISTER WHITAKER: never run beyond 2m5f before, not sure this is the right race to find out if he stays beyond 3-mile.
BEWARE THE BEAR: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race. He's 20/1 with Bet365.
MAGIC OF LIGHT: Probably will stay this 3m1f trip but handicap mark of OR149 looks tough.
CRUCIAL ROLE: Only 4 chase races, a 3-mile hurdle winner and won LTO over extended 2m6f on 25Feb, however he is prone to bleeding.
UP FOR REVIEW: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148. Currently 14/1 with Bet365.
GIVE ME A COPPER: Only had 3 chase runs, and 2 were in 2017 before returning off an 18 month break to run 4th on 02Feb over 3-mile. That form wasn't great and he needs to find 15lb to be involved in this, but trainer Paul Nicholls talks a good race!
WILLIE BOY: Did not look a 3-mile chaser when beaten on his 1st attempt at the trip LTO and OR145 looks a tough rating for him.
SHANTOU VILLAGE: Hasn't looked like a 3-mile chaser (beaten both attempts) and best at 2m5f.
OLDGRANGEWOOD: Run once (at Aintree) over 3m1f, and the soft ground probably beat him that day. So long as the ground isn't soft, he could well run a big race as he looks to have been prepared for this race. Currently he's 40/1 with BetVictor.
My shortlist of 3 is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1
And I've placed wagers on all three.
Saturday, 9 March 2019
Cheltenham 2019 - 3 days to go
Alfter reviewing my antepost wagers yesterday, I've been reading up a few of the journalists blogs (Lydia Hislop on Sportinglife.com is excellent) and trying to make some sense of the multiple entries of some of the fancied runners.
The handicaps are still a story in the making as we won't know the make-up until the final declarations but there are a few horses that we might be able to take a view on.
I'm looking at placing a few multiple wagers today and the first place to start is with the "Arkle" on Tuesday as this looks like being one of the weakest I can remember (well, not quite as weak as last year when Footpad won a virtual "walk-over"). If Defi Du Seuil goes for the JLT Chase on Thursday (which seems very likely) then we could be in for a surprise winner, but which horse will it be?
My opinion is currently split between HARDLINE and KNOCKNANUSS.
The next race to consider is the Champion Hurdle, but this race has little in the way of value as current champion Buveur D'Air is too short in the market given his dubious recent form, and Apple's Jade (who ran well below form in the Mares' Hurdle last year after which she was found to be "in season) who gets the mares 7lb allowance but may need every ounce of it. I've already struck and antepost wager on SHARJAH and that's enough investment for me in this race.
The opening day's race that catches my eye is the 4-mile NH Chase, as this race the form invariably works out. Those who regularly read this blog know that I do not rate the form of the fav OK CORRAL very highly (not as high as the official handicapper, nor Racing Post Ratings) and so there could be an opportunity. I have already placed a wager on MORTAL, and I feel he has a cracking chance at this trip but, having watched his latest race, BALLYWARD looks the most likely winner.
Having run 4th in the Albert Bartlett last March (just 3-lengths behind OK Corral in 2nd) he very nearly won his chase debut, before winning - in convincing manner - his next race over 3-mile on soft ground at Naas. DISCORAMA fell at the final fence in that race, when upsides Ballyward, but Discorama had been under a hard-drive from a long way out while Ballyward was always looking comfortable. One for the shortlist.
On Wednesday the day starts with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, but I've no handle on novice hurdle form this season. So it is on to the RSA Novices Chase over an extended 3-mile, but the more I look at this form, the more I think DELTA WORK the current 7/4 fav, is the most likely winner. I'm not impressed by SANTINI as a novice chaser as Rocky's Treasure (RT), who Santini beat on his debut, is only rated OR147 now (and I doubt that RT ran to that level when beaten). And whatever way you look at it, Santini struggled at Kempton when 3rd behind La Bague Au Roi and TOPOFTHEGAME. We will have a better handle on Santini after watching how OK Corral gets on in the NH Chase on Tuesday. Of those at longer odds, MISTER MALARKY who has won his last two 3-mile chase races, looks more than capable of being in the mix at the business end. What is interesting is that of the 13 runners declared, only two are from Ireland and there's nothing entered by Willie Mullins.
Thursday opens with the JLT Novices Chase over 2m4f and I'm not looking anywhere else other than DEFI DU SEUIL. I reckon "Defi" has too much speed for Lostintranslation, and the Irish-trained REAL STEEL needs to find about 12lb of improvement; the same goes for KILDISART.
Later in the day, we have the Ryanair Chase and this looks a good race for a wager, or is it? The betting is headed by the Mullins-trained pair of FOOTPAD and MIN, and which to prefer depends on who Ruby Walsh rides. My opinion is that Walsh will ride neither, and he will ride UN DE SCEAUX. I'm expecting Footpad not to go to Cheltenham (and wait for Aintree and Punshestown instead) and for MIN to challenge Altior in the Champion Chase over 2-miles. With ROAD TO RESPECT taking the Gold Cup route, and TOP NOTCH running in the Stayers' Hurdle, this race will be essentially between MONALEE and FRODON.
Of that pair, I favour MONALEE as he's a model of consistency and this trip seems to be his best. Frodon was beaten out of sight in the Ryanair Chase last year and I would say he's only improved about 5lb since then but he never runs well in the Spring - 5 career runs in March/April without a win. Monalee is also (on my ratings) a slightly better horse on average.
My shortlist for multiple wagers is:-
Tues "Arkle" - HARDLINE @ 7/1 and KNOCKNANUSS @ 14/1
Tues NH Chase - BALLYWARD @ 7/2 and MORTAL @ 14/1
Wed RSA Chase - MISTER MALARKY @ 16/1
Thurs JLT Chase - DEFI DU SEUIL @ 7/2
Thurs Ryanair Chase - MONALEE @ 9/2
Possible "yankee"
HARDLINE / BALLYWARD / DEFI DU SEUIL / MONALEE
Possible long-odds "patent"
KNOCKNANUSS / MORTAL / MISTER MALARKEY
The handicaps are still a story in the making as we won't know the make-up until the final declarations but there are a few horses that we might be able to take a view on.
I'm looking at placing a few multiple wagers today and the first place to start is with the "Arkle" on Tuesday as this looks like being one of the weakest I can remember (well, not quite as weak as last year when Footpad won a virtual "walk-over"). If Defi Du Seuil goes for the JLT Chase on Thursday (which seems very likely) then we could be in for a surprise winner, but which horse will it be?
My opinion is currently split between HARDLINE and KNOCKNANUSS.
The next race to consider is the Champion Hurdle, but this race has little in the way of value as current champion Buveur D'Air is too short in the market given his dubious recent form, and Apple's Jade (who ran well below form in the Mares' Hurdle last year after which she was found to be "in season) who gets the mares 7lb allowance but may need every ounce of it. I've already struck and antepost wager on SHARJAH and that's enough investment for me in this race.
The opening day's race that catches my eye is the 4-mile NH Chase, as this race the form invariably works out. Those who regularly read this blog know that I do not rate the form of the fav OK CORRAL very highly (not as high as the official handicapper, nor Racing Post Ratings) and so there could be an opportunity. I have already placed a wager on MORTAL, and I feel he has a cracking chance at this trip but, having watched his latest race, BALLYWARD looks the most likely winner.
Having run 4th in the Albert Bartlett last March (just 3-lengths behind OK Corral in 2nd) he very nearly won his chase debut, before winning - in convincing manner - his next race over 3-mile on soft ground at Naas. DISCORAMA fell at the final fence in that race, when upsides Ballyward, but Discorama had been under a hard-drive from a long way out while Ballyward was always looking comfortable. One for the shortlist.
On Wednesday the day starts with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, but I've no handle on novice hurdle form this season. So it is on to the RSA Novices Chase over an extended 3-mile, but the more I look at this form, the more I think DELTA WORK the current 7/4 fav, is the most likely winner. I'm not impressed by SANTINI as a novice chaser as Rocky's Treasure (RT), who Santini beat on his debut, is only rated OR147 now (and I doubt that RT ran to that level when beaten). And whatever way you look at it, Santini struggled at Kempton when 3rd behind La Bague Au Roi and TOPOFTHEGAME. We will have a better handle on Santini after watching how OK Corral gets on in the NH Chase on Tuesday. Of those at longer odds, MISTER MALARKY who has won his last two 3-mile chase races, looks more than capable of being in the mix at the business end. What is interesting is that of the 13 runners declared, only two are from Ireland and there's nothing entered by Willie Mullins.
Thursday opens with the JLT Novices Chase over 2m4f and I'm not looking anywhere else other than DEFI DU SEUIL. I reckon "Defi" has too much speed for Lostintranslation, and the Irish-trained REAL STEEL needs to find about 12lb of improvement; the same goes for KILDISART.
Later in the day, we have the Ryanair Chase and this looks a good race for a wager, or is it? The betting is headed by the Mullins-trained pair of FOOTPAD and MIN, and which to prefer depends on who Ruby Walsh rides. My opinion is that Walsh will ride neither, and he will ride UN DE SCEAUX. I'm expecting Footpad not to go to Cheltenham (and wait for Aintree and Punshestown instead) and for MIN to challenge Altior in the Champion Chase over 2-miles. With ROAD TO RESPECT taking the Gold Cup route, and TOP NOTCH running in the Stayers' Hurdle, this race will be essentially between MONALEE and FRODON.
Of that pair, I favour MONALEE as he's a model of consistency and this trip seems to be his best. Frodon was beaten out of sight in the Ryanair Chase last year and I would say he's only improved about 5lb since then but he never runs well in the Spring - 5 career runs in March/April without a win. Monalee is also (on my ratings) a slightly better horse on average.
My shortlist for multiple wagers is:-
Tues "Arkle" - HARDLINE @ 7/1 and KNOCKNANUSS @ 14/1
Tues NH Chase - BALLYWARD @ 7/2 and MORTAL @ 14/1
Wed RSA Chase - MISTER MALARKY @ 16/1
Thurs JLT Chase - DEFI DU SEUIL @ 7/2
Thurs Ryanair Chase - MONALEE @ 9/2
Possible "yankee"
HARDLINE / BALLYWARD / DEFI DU SEUIL / MONALEE
Possible long-odds "patent"
KNOCKNANUSS / MORTAL / MISTER MALARKEY
Friday, 8 March 2019
Next stop Cheltenham 2019
It's been a busy few months, and the weekend is going to be even busier as the focus will be entirely on Cheltenham. When I look at the racing week as a whole, I try to pick my targets and not get too bogged-down in the incidentals; this is when trends can help formulate shortlists.
A few ground rules:
- You cannot find the winner of every race, so don't try to.
- If you selection doesn't win (or even run well) don't abandon the horse. If your procedures are valid then it could just be that the horse had an off-day or the course didn't suit it.
- Pace yourself, spread your bets and give yourself time to think between wagers.
Later in the day (on Thursday) we have the Ryanair Chase and it's almost certain that my wager on Politologue is lost. For his novice and 2nd-season as a chaser, I thought Politologue was about 155, and then he went and beat MIN at Aintree last April. That win made me think he was better than 155, and what I now realise was that MIN was over-the-top when he was beaten at Aintree. In an effort to recoup losses, I've gone back into the market with wagers on FRODON and MONALEE. The current race-fav is last years Arkle winner FOOTPAD, but he's looked nowhere near good enough this season, and looks over-rated to me. I reckon MIN will go for the Champion Chase and with Top Notch committed to a run in the Stayers' Hurdle this race could have less than 9 runners lining-up on the day.
Finally, I am super-happy that I placed a wager on CLAN DES OBEAUX after he won the "King George" on Boxing Day. He looks to have by far the best form seen this season as a top-class chaser, and were it not for the fans (fanatics?) behind PRESENTING PERCY then "Clan" would be trading at about 9/4 and not 7/2. The only thing that may prevent him winning is if the rains come and we have a soft/heavy ground Gold Cup. All being well, I could be having one of the biggest wagers of my life on-course on CLAN DES OBEAUX on Friday.
A few ground rules:
- You cannot find the winner of every race, so don't try to.
- If you selection doesn't win (or even run well) don't abandon the horse. If your procedures are valid then it could just be that the horse had an off-day or the course didn't suit it.
- Pace yourself, spread your bets and give yourself time to think between wagers.
This is how my Cheltenham Festival "Antepost" Portfolio stands.
Arkle (novices) Chase
DEFI DU SEUIL, £10 win @ 16/1 (Bet365)
JLT (novices) Chase
DEFI DU SEUIL, £15 win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
Cheltenham Gold Cup
CLAN DES OBEAUX, £12 win @ 12/1 (Bet Victor)
Ryanair Chase
POLITOLOGUE, £38 win @ 14/1
POLITOLOGUE, £5 place @ 12/1 (William Hill & Betfair)
FRODON, £10 win @ 7/1 (Boyles)
MONALEE, £15 win @ 5/1 (Boyles)
Champion Hurdle
SHARJAH, £20 win @ 12/1 (current intention is to lay-off £10 at SP on the day - Betfair)
RSA Chase (Novices 3-mile)
MORTAL, £11 win @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
TOPOFTHEGAME, £7.50 eachway @ 5/1 (Boyles)
NH Chase (Novices 4-mile)
MORTAL, £9 win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
I'm of the opinion that DEFI DU SEUIL is the best novice chaser we have seen this season, and whatever race he goes for he will win. I'm hoping that he goes for the Arkle over 2-miles on the opening day, but it looks like he is going for the JLT Novices Chase on Thursday over 2m4f.
My next antepost on the opening day will be SHARJAH in the Champion Hurdle, and I'm surprised that you can still find 12/1 as I think he could be no longer than 7/1 on the day as I reckon there is not much ability seperating the mares Laurina and Verdana Blue, yet Laurina is 7/2 whereas Verdana Blue is 12/1. Much will depend on which horse Ruby Walsh chooses as his mount, and if (as I expect) he chooses SHARJAH then the odds on him will tumble. I'm expecting this one to be upsides the leaders "on the bridle" on the turn for home.
My final wager on the opening day is on MORTAL in the NH Chase over 4-miles. This horse was clearly unsuited by the 2m5f of the "Flogas" when last seen, as he had nothing to find on the run-in after travelling and jumping well throughout. Based on his final fence mistake at Leopardstown, there is not much between him and Delta Work, and if Delta Work was in this race than he would be the 5/2 fav. The current fav is OK Corral and he is also the highest-rated on OR153. Official ratings are usually a very good guide to the winner of this race, so I cannot ignore them, but I'm not convinced about this horse. Of the Irish pair of Ballyward and Discorama, my preference is for the latter, but he may well run in the "Ultima" handicap chase earlier in the day and if he does he will take a great deal of beating.
Wednesday and my next antepost wager is in the RSA Novices Chase over 3-miles. I have a "saver" on Mortal, should he go for this race, but I'm expecting him to run on Tuesday now, so I've taken the odds about TOPOFTHEGAME. To be honest, I am expecting DELTA WORK to win this, but his odds are so small (currently 7/4) that I'm on TOPOFTHEGAME merely to take advantage of any misfortune that may occur. I cannot see TOPOFTHEGAME not being in the 1st-3 so with my eachway wager struck I should not lose my stake.
Thursday will be a big day, no less because I will be on the course. If DEFI DU SEUIL goes for the JLT, then I will be having a significant wager on the horse. The odds should be fairly generous on the day, as there will be support for Lostintranslation and Vinndication as well as the interesting Irish challenger Real Steel; so I'm hoping to be able to find 7/2 and have £50+ on.
Finally, I am super-happy that I placed a wager on CLAN DES OBEAUX after he won the "King George" on Boxing Day. He looks to have by far the best form seen this season as a top-class chaser, and were it not for the fans (fanatics?) behind PRESENTING PERCY then "Clan" would be trading at about 9/4 and not 7/2. The only thing that may prevent him winning is if the rains come and we have a soft/heavy ground Gold Cup. All being well, I could be having one of the biggest wagers of my life on-course on CLAN DES OBEAUX on Friday.
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