Aintree Grand National meeting - Day 1

For me, the Aintree Grand National meeting is just as exciting as the Cheltenham Festival.  I've been watching horseracing since I was a toddler, and my earliest memory is watching Freddie - the 7/2 fav for the 1965 Grand National - beaten under a length in a close finish by Jay Trump. Watching the old black & white film of the race on YouTube, you are reminded of just how huge Bechers Brook used to be.

We've come a long way since then, and the National fences have been completely re-designed and remodelled, and the length of the race has been reduced, but - somehow - the magic pull of the race still captures the imagination of the public and, for 15 minutes, nothing else matters.

I have already written my appraisal of the big race on Saturday, and I was going to wait until Friday evening before posting it, but I think I'm going to post my Grand National preview this evening as I'm expecting some significant betting market moves in the final 24 hours before the race at 5:15pm on Saturday and I do not want readers to miss out on what could be some considerable value in the market.  My expectation is that the support for the fav Tiger Roll will subside and he will lengthen in the market from his current 4/1 odds, and that there will be major moves for several other entries. Over the past week, the more I've looked at the Grand National form, the more competitive a race I think it will be - it looks like being a cracker.  

On to today's racing from Aintree, and in the opening race at 1:45pm the Manifesto Novices' Chase over 2m4f, the mare La Bague Au Roi looks a worthy fav, and odds of 7/4 (with Paddy Power) look fair value. Long time readers of this blog know that I do not recommend wagers on horses that are under 9/4, that's not my angle, so while I expect the mare to run well and win I can't recommend having a wager on her. But she may not have things all her own way, and I reckon that BAGS GROOVE could push her all the way.  He ran a stinker at Kempton on Boxing Day when La Bague Au Roi beat him over 3-miles, but he's since won again over this trip at Kempton, and at his best he's not far off the level of the fav.  Before Cheltenham, I thought Glen Forsa needed to find 15lb to win the Arkle, and I think he will have his limitations exposed in this race today, and while Kalashnikov should run better going left-handed here, he also needs to find about 10lb of improvement to win this.  On known form, both Mengli Khan and Spiritofthegames look outclassed.  For me, BAGS GROOVE at 8/1 looks a fair eachway wager (quarter-odds a place 1st or 2nd).

At 2:20pm the Juvenile Hurdle over 2-mile & 1-furlong looks to be in the hands of Triumph Hurdle winner PENTLAND HILLS, and I'm surprised that odds of 9/4 are available, as he looks the best 4yo hurdler in this race.  Is he value? For that you have to reckon he should be considerably shorter in the betting than 9/4, and I don't as to be value I would have to rate Pentland Hills a 5/4 chance and I don't, he's probably a 7/4 chance. 

 

The Betway Bowl at at 2:50pm over 3-mile & 1-furlong has a select band of top class chasers. I'm discounting Balko De Flos and Elegant Escape as they just aren't good enough at this level. The grey Bristol De Mai never seems to run well after Cheltenham and was easily beaten in this race in 2017 and 2018. Maybe he's a better horse now, but I'm not so sure.  Road To Respect is one of the most consistent chasers in training, and this trip and track could be right up his street. He has to find over 7-lengths to beat Kemboy based on their meeting at Leopardstown over 3-mile on 28th December, but that race was run at a slow tempo, and the resultant quicker pace over the final half-mile perhaps suited Kemboy better than Road To Respect. As for Clan Des Obeaux, I think he had a hard race at Cheltenham and he was also beaten in this race last year (finished behind Bristol De Mai).  All things considered, I think ROAD TO RESPECT is the way to go in this, and odds of 5/1 look decent considering he has no questions to answer, while each of the other rivals does.

BUVEUR D'AIR won the Aintree hurdle over 2-mile & 4-furlongs in 2017 with perhaps the best performance of his career, and I cannot see him losing this race today. Nothing else comes close to him on ratings or likely performance, and he could well go off at odds-on.

I'm giving the Foxhunters Chase over the National fences, and the Red Rum handicap chase over 2-miles a miss, as well tas the closing bumper.

My best bet of the day is ROAD TO RESPECT @ 5/1 (available generally) in the 2:50pm Betway Bowl.

 

2019 Grand National - some early thoughts

There's been a massive gamble on TIGER ROLL, and judging by his last couple of wins he's better than ever this season however his win over the Cross-Country course at Cheltenham is difficult to evaluate (but it certainly looked good).

He's no sort of price for a race as competitive as the Grand National, and as I tipped him to win the race last year I think I'm better-placed than most to give a fair and impartial view of his ability to win the race for a 2nd time next week.

He made a few errors last year, notably resulting in jockey Davy Russell losing his irons, and he also wandered about in the final 200 yards of the run-in losing a significant advantage to just last out and hold on at the line.

With Bristol De Mai a definite non-runner the weights will go up 4lb, so Tiger Roll will carry 11st 5lb which is 6lb more than he carried last year, and weight does matter in these marathon races and especially so when in a race like the Grand National as the pace is unrelenting.

If he gets round (and there is always an "if" in a race like the Grand National), then he will be in there with a great shout.  With the likelihood of having 10-plus stablemates running in the race - it may look like a the Tour De France protecting the team leader - there may be one or more stablemates in with a chance at the 2nd-last fence, and at that point "team tactics" have to go!

Which ones that Gordon Elliott will declare to run is debatable, and it's unlikely Alpha Des Obeaux will run (has a bruised foot), and I'm not sure that The Storyteller should be in the race as his best form is at 2m4f.  Outlander looks seriously out of his depth in this off OR158. We have not seen much of Don Poli since he was 3rd to Sizing John (who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup) in Feb 2017, but he would need to at his best to be in with a chance off OR157.

The 11yo Mala Beach looks to have his best days behind him and will struggle off OR156. Shattered Love is another who looks best at 2m4f, but he did win a Grade 1 novice chase over 3-mile - however, the front 2 in the betting (Monalee and Rathvinden) fell, so that form isn't strong. It was Jury Duty who was 2nd in that race and while he hasn't set the world alight, he looks fairly treated on OR151 and comes here on the back of 2 recent wins, the last one over 3m2f.

Noble Endeavour has had a couple of runs this season after a 2-year break, and this marathon trip looks to be in his compass, and this 10yo could well be staying-on strong  The ground will likely be too quick for Monbeg Notorious, but he is a staying chaser; and I really do not know why they've entered Blow By Blow (except as a "spoiler").  General Principle will likely be better aimed at the Irish National (a race he's already won) on 22nd April, that this.

It's doubtful that any of those rated lower than General Principle (Nr 46 on OR144) will get into the race, so the only other Elliott entry to consider is the 8yo DOUNIKOS who was last seen winning the Grand National Trial (handicap) over 3m4f at Punchestown on 10th February.  He was ridden that day by Davy Russell, but he's certain to take the ride on Tiger Roll. So we know he will stay this sort of trip, and the ground will suit, it's whether he will get a run. If he does, he has (in my opinion) an outstanding chance, so I've taken the 100/1 available on Betfair. If he doesn't then I will likely be able to recover my losses (and more) in the Irish Grand National later in April.   

Those entries not attached to the Elliott stable that (at this stage) hold a realistic chance are:-

Lake View Lad, although he would prefer soft ground, so if there is rain next week (unlikely) he could be worth a wager. But then, the same can be said for last years runner-up Pleasant Company as on good-to-soft ground in 2017 he was well beaten despite finishing. 

RATHVINDEN has been aimed at this race since winning the 4-mile novice NH Chase at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. A top-class novice hurdler, he missed 3 years to injury before being brought steadily through the novice chase ranks in 2017. He probably would have contested the 2017 and 2018 Gold Cups but for the injury, and when he won LTO (respected Bobbyjo Chase) he looked like there was plenty of improvement in him and OR154 looks a very fair rating.

Rock The Kasbah will love the ground and stay this trip, but he does like things to go his way, and when they don't he chucks the towel in; so I get the feeling that he's one who will not enjoy this race. 

In the recent Cheltenham Gold Cup, trainer Patrick Kelly was given some criticism (including by me) for his preparation of Presenting Percy, and he can recoup his reputation if MALL DINI runs a big race.  A winner of the competitive 3-mile handicap hurdle at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival, we know he stays well and he will handle the likely "good" going at Aintree. His trainer knows how to get him fit for a target race, and he will be well up for it next week, and I think he will be right there at the business end.

There are only two others that I think have a chance of winning the race and they are Vintage Clouds and Singlefarmpayment.

I'm sure there will be plenty scoffing at me including Singlefarmpayment, as he's been 2nd no less than 9 times and on 4 occasions the margin of defeat has been only a few inches. But the horse stays well, jumps well, is a very strong traveller, and he's unlikely to be worried out of the race if jumping the last fence well clear of the remainder.  His recent run will have prepared him well, and if this were any other handicap race he'd be trading at around 12/1 and not 66/1.

I've been saying for 12 months that Vintage Clouds will win a "National" and he's run 7th in the April-2018 Scottish National; 4th in the Jan-2018 Welsh National; and 3rd in the April-2018 Scottish National. He stays well, travels well and has a very similar profile to that of Singlefarmpayment, yet he's only 14/1 - which should make you realise what great value Singlefarmpayment is.

There was only one other horse that I was considering, but that was Blaklion, and he was declared a non-runner this morning.

A more detailed look will be posted on the evening before the race.

Cheltenham 2019 - Day 4 (Friday 15th March)

Another cracking day for the blog yesterday when top selection DEFI DU SEUIL won the JLT Novices Chase - what a start to the day.  I've been saying on my blog since January that Defi Du Seuil is the best novice chaser we've seen this season and he will win whatever race he's entered in at the Festival, and I was right. I do not often advise £20 win wagers, but I felt certain he was the real deal.
Then FRODON (one of my late antepost wagers) in the Ryanair Chase led from the front and battled up the stright for a hard-fought but decisive win.
The blog is now seriously in profit for the week, it's been one of my best Cheltenham Festivals since I started blogging (if not the best for me) and there is still a day to go.
Top Notch was poor yesterday, but do not take anything away from PAISLEY PARK. After he won at the Trials day in January I wrote that Paisley Park should be odds-on for the Stayers' Hurdle (and as readers know, I do not advise wagers on horses at odds under 9/4 - you can pick those winners yourself).
Both my long-odds handicap selections ran good races but just not good enough to get into the places.

1:30pm Triumph hurdle run over 2-miles & 1 furlong
If you look at the betting, this race is all about SIR EREC,  and how far he will win by.  Well, we've seen races like this before at Cheltenham and it doesn;t always go to plan. There are only 4 other horses to consider, as the long-shots have virtually no chance. PIC D'ORHY has not run in the UK or Ireland yet, nor has he run anywhere since early November. Our first sight of this horse will be in the paddock. QUEL DESTIN, also trained by Paul Nichols (like PIC D'ORHY) but with lots of experience winning a string of top hurdles in the UK. TIGER TAP TAP has been beaten easily by the fav SIR EREC on both his hurdle starts. GARDENS OF BABYLON trained by Joseph O'Brien who trains SIR EREC, and beaten 6-lengths by him when they last met. 
If you want to bet on the race, have a small eachway wager on QUEL DESTIN @ 10/1 (fifth the odds a place 1,2,3) which is available generally, but theis is a race I expect to go to SIR EREC and I will be watching only.

2:10pm County Handicap Hurdle run over 2-miles & 1 furlong
With 8 of the last 11 winners going off at odds longer than 20/1 - and last years winner Mohaayed went off at 33/1 - you need luck and a crystal ball to find the winner. You do not want a horse that has won over trips longer than 2m1f, and stick to 5yo and 6yo's or horses with no more than 2 seasons of hurdling if older. I'm going to have a play with the 5yo LISP @ 25/1 (quarter-odds to 5 places with Bet365) as he's a come 1st or 2nd in 6 of his completed 9 hurdle races (he fell at the 3rd in the Martin Pipe Novices H'cap hurdle last year when 10/1 for the race), he can carry weight and has a touch of class about him, with trainer Alan King confident of a good run.
Selection: LISP, £5 eachway @  25/1 (quarter-odds to 5 places with Bet365)

2:50pm Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle run over 3-miles
This should be a good betting race as few horses stay a strong 3-mile over hurdles, but this race has now been won by a horse no shorter than 11/1 for the past 5 years, and in 2018 and 2014 the winner went off at 33/1. We are looking for a horse that has race experience (4 or more hurdle races) and shown the ability to stay 3-mile. There are 20 runners!
I am against the fave BIRCHDALE as he's only had 2 hurdle races, ditto ALLAHO and DICKIE DIVER, and DINONS hasn't run since November.
Of the market leaders LISNAGAR OSCAR @ 13/2 and COMMANDER OF FLEET @ 15/2 are interesting, but I'm going to take a stab with Noel Meade's CAP YORK, a 7yo who won over 3-mile  LTO and stays forever. The plan was to send him for the 3-mile Pertemps handicap hurdle (run yesterday) but they think he's good enough for this
Selection: CAP YORK, £5 eachway @ 25/1 (fifth odds to 4 places with Bet Victor)

3:30pm Cheltenham Gold Cup run over 3-miles, 2 furlongs & 70 yards.
This is the big one!
Right off, I am against PRESENTING PERCY.  His RSA winning form has been put to bed with Monalee running 4th in the Ryanair Chase behind Frodon yesterday, and ELEGANT ESCAPE being beaten by Frodon here at Cheltenham in January. He will need to have improved 7lb on his RSA winning form to win this, and off the back of a 3-mile hurdle race I would want odds of 10/1.
Last year I was on NATIVE RIVER, but this year in both his runs he's not looked the same horse, as hasn't the runner-up in last year's Gold Cup MIGHT BITE.  That race was a mighty battle, and has it left it's mark? NATIVE RIVER will need to match, and possibly surpass, last year's effort to win today and I just feel that the ground is not as testing as he would want it to be.
On my ratings, BELLSHILL is about 7-10lb below Gold Cup winning standard, but he is consistent and has the very capable Ruby Walsh in the saddle.
His stablemate, KEMBOY, is interesting as he appears to stay 3-mile very well and he is certainly worth his position in the market.
 I do not think ELEGANT ESCAPE is anywhere near good enough, but he is very consistent and stays forever, so he may well come on late for 3rd or 4th.
MIGHT BITE looks a busted flush, and the 10yo has age against him and a mountain to climb to recover his form. I expect he will be up with the pace on the 1st circuit but fade away in the final mile.  His last hurrah will likely come at Aintree where he won the "Bowl" last year.
I am surprised that Ruby Walsh is not riding AL BOUM PHOTO as I thought this horse would emerge this season as the Willie Mullins Gold Cup horse, and he has won his only start this season, albeit over 2m5f on 1st January. I'm assuming Walsh thinks this trip will stretch his stamina.
They say horses aged 10yo and more don't win the Gold Cup, but the 11yo THISTLECRACK is no back number based on his 2nd in the King George on Boxing Day, and he has every right to be among the market leader. As an eachway wager, there is no better value in my opinion, and he should be in the 1st 3 home, but I cannot see him winning.
ANIBALE FLY took advantage of the fierce pace set last year to steal 3rd passing beaten horses, and is doubtful to repeat the effort.
BRISTOL DE MAI and Cheltenham do not go together, and there has not been enough rain for him, and the others INVITATION ONLY, SHATTERED LOVE, DEFINITLY RED, SOUBLE SHUFFLE and YALA ENKI have next to no chance.
For me, the winner will be CLAN DES OBEAUX, as his win in the King George stamped his authority on the staying division, and the follow-up at Ascot confirmed his ability. Trainer Paul Nicholls sent Frodon out to win the Ryanair yesterday, and that horse would have been worthy of a place in the Gold Cup. CLAN DES OBEAUX has youth on his side, he is in form, he stays well, he jumps well, he has a lot of solid chasing experience.  For me, odds of 5/1 are generous as I would have him at 9/4 in this field as he has the beating of most of them this season - he has to run poorly or they they have to improve 7lb-plus to beat him - he holds all the aces.
Selection: CLAN DES OBEAUX, £15 win @ 5/1 (available generally)

That's it for me for this years Festival. It has been a great one so far with winners posted on the blog being DUC DES GENEIVRES @ 13/2,  BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1 (antepost),  TOPOFTHEGAME @ 5/1 (antepost), DEFI DU SEUIL @ 100/30, and FRODON @ 7/1 (antepost).
If you have enjoyed the blog please leave a comment, refer to it on twitter (and you can find me on instagram), and if you have won a few quid on the back of my advice don't be afraid to drop a "fiver"  via the donation button on the top right of this page.
All the best for now and I will be reviewing the Festival results so that we are ahead of the game for next year over the coming weeks.
Good luck from Wayward Lad.

Cheltenham 2019 - Day 3 (Thursday 14th March)

It was a good day on Wsednesday, not quite as good as Tuesday, but good enough.  My antepost wager on TOPOFTHEGAME was successful (see Monday's blog for a recap of my antepost portfolio), and I feel vindicated - following the fantastic run from POLITOLOGUE in the Champion Chase - that my wagers on Politologue for the Ryanair was the right policy.  Judging by that performance, I think Politologue would have gone very close in the Ryanair Chase.
I am on the course (in the Best Mate enclosure) today and tomorrow.
It is a busy day today.

1:30 JLT Novices Chase run over 2m4f

Ideally, you are looking for a horse that has won a Graded race over hurdles or fences, and one that has also won at the Cheltenham Festival before.

A cracking race to start the day with, and I am very interested in the fav DEFI DU SEUIL who has won Graded races over both hurdles and fences, and has won at Cheltenham having won the Triumph Hurdle in 2017. By my ratings, he's the best novice chaser we've seen this season, not by much, but the best. I already have an antepost wagers on DEFI DU SEUIL and I'm confident they will be successful. Odds of over 3/1 look very generous about a horse who could be the best novice chaser of the season.

LOSTINTRANSLATION will not be far away, but I feel he would have been better placed in the RSA Novices chase over 3-mile instead of this race.  I rate the Irish trained REAL STEEL well behind this pair, and have more interest in VINNDICATION but again I feel he would have been better off running in the RSA Chase.

DEFI DU SEUIL - £20 win @ 100/30 Coral & Ladbrokes

2:10 Pertemps Network final Handicap hurdle run over 3-mile

Possibly the toughest handicap hurdle of the season to solve.  The winner will need to stay 3-mile at a strong gallop. Age is no barrier to success, combine that with LTO winners (if possible).

This is one of those races that you could spend a day studying the form and still not find the winner.  A good judge has suggested WALK TO FREEDOM, the 9yo trained by Mrs J. Harrington.  He carries top-weight of 11st 12lb but he is a decent handicapper who stays the trip and is unexposed at 3-mile having only raced the distance the once LTO when 2nd.

No bet race for me.

2:50 Ryanair Chase run over 2m4f & 166 yards

One of the best races for a wager, ideally you need a graded chase winner, a 2nd-season chaser, and horse that runs up with the pace. Hopefully, the horse should have won at Cheltenham before.

Although FOOTPAD won last years Arkle over 2-mile, he hasn't shown himself to be up to the usual standard since then and he looks a weak fav. The 2nd-fav ROAD TO RESPECT is normally seen over 3-mile, so dropping to 2m5f is interesting, and I wonder if he will be quick enough. MONALEE is his equal over 3-mile and probably better over 2m5f and looks to be the one to beat if FRODON is unable to repeat the form of earlier this season. FRODON flopped badly in this race last year after a busy season, and he's had fewer runs this time and maintained his form so far. UN DE SCEAUX has won this race before, but was easily swept aside by BALKO DES FLOS last year. It's a tricky race to fathom this year, but and I've already an antepost wager at 5/1 on MONALEE (a proven performer at this level) and also on FRODON @ 7/1 who I think may just struggle to hold-off these graded performers from the front.

No further wagers on this race from me as I was hoping that it would cut-up a bit more, and I'm sure had POLITOLOGUE run in this and not the Champion Chase yesterday, that he would have taken all the beating.

3:30 Sunbet Stayers' Hurdle run over 3-mile

The key to this race may lie in the race of 2018. 
SUPASUNDAE (who was 2nd) demonstrated that his best trip is 2m4f not 3-mile.  FAUGHEEN appears to have rekindled his career at 3-mile but do not forget that he is 11yo.  BACARDYS is no better now than he was in 2018 and looks outclassed. BLACK OP has a fair bit to make up to beat the fav, who he met here in January. KILBRECKEN STORM do not look good enough. However, TOP NOTCH could give the favourite a race as he loves this course and was a seriously top class hurdler as a novice, and this trip could bring out the best in him as he does enjoy coming off a strong pace. Don't get me wrong, I am expecting PAISLEY PARK to win and I think he should be 5/4 such is the form that he's shown this season, but TOP NOTCH at 16/1 ( he should pay his way.
TOP NOTCH £5 eachway @ 16/1 (5th odds a place 1,2,3,4 with Ladbrokes & Coral)

4:10 Stable Plate Handicap Chase run over 2m4f & 127 yards

This looks an incredibly tough handicap to fathom, and sometimes it pays to go on gut feeling. I think it was a bit tough on JANIKA to be raised 6lb by the handicapper for coming 2nd LTO to SIRUH DU LAC (who went up 7lb for a tiny winning margin) and I can't see either winning this race. In 2018, SPIRITOFTHEGAMES ran 5th in the 2-mile County Hurdle and he never seems to run a bad race. I do like horses with recent winning form in these handicaps, and Venetia Willams loves these handicaps here and right at the bottom with just 10st 5lb is DIDERO VALLIS who has only run in 4 chase races, won 2 of them, but failed to stay 3-mile LTO. Add that he's a prominent runner, and I like horses "in the van" and we have the makings of a wager - he's 25/1 with Bet365.
DIDERO VALLIS, £5 eachway @ 25/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4 with Bet365)

4:50 Mares Novices hurdle run over 2-mile & 179 yards

I'm not going to bother with this race.  Some races you just have to pass over and as we saw with Apple's Jade and Laurina in the Champion hurdle, mares do have off days.

5:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap (amateur riders) run over 3m2f

I found the winner of this race last year so let's have another go.
It's amateur riders again and jockeyship (or lack of it) will pay a part, so ignore all the claiming jockeys. 
YOUNG MASTER (Sam Waley-Cohen) was 6th in this race last year, but this horse is aimed for Aintree's Grand National.  
ANY SECOND NOW (Derek O'Connor) just does not look good enough on form and will he stay?
LIVELOVELAUGH (Mr P Mullins) is another with doubtful stamina.
MEASUREOFMYDREAMS is the ride of JJ Codd who has won two races already this Festival but he will need all his skill to get this one home as the 11yo looks past it.
CAPTAIN CHAOS (Miss Gina Andrews) could be the answer, as his 2nd LTO to Lake View Lad looks strong form now. A prominent runner who stays the trip well. 
ITS ALL GUESWORK (Mr B O'Neill) looks the best of the Irish challenge but he has little recent chasing form.
TOUCH KICK (William Biddick) looks an interesting entry from Paul Nicholls as he won over 2m7f LTO on soft ground, but all of his wins are when going right-handed.  
For me, it has to be... 
CAPTAIN CHAOS @ 20/1 £5 eachway (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4 with Bet365)

I am also putting
TOP NOTCH @ 16/1
DIDERO VALLIS @ 25/1
and CAPTAIN CHAOS @ 20/1  in 3 x £1 eachway doubles and a £2 eachway treble
Good luck