Dublin Festival weekend - 4th & 5th February

What a tremendous weekend of horseracing we have ahead of us. Leopardstown has put together a couple of days of absolutely top-class sport, and come Monday morning we should have a fairly good idea what the final plans are for most of the races at next months Cheltenham Festival. 

Before that, let's take a look back at last Saturday's Trials Day at Cheltenham, and - the the 2nd year running - I drew a blank; but then last year I went on to have what was probably my best ever Festival. So, fingers crossed, let's hope the gambling gods are on my side again. My early wager on Protektorat for the Gold Cup looks cooked. I thought he'd improved over the summer to put in a career-best effort in the Betfair Chase - but perhaps the result flattered him. The 1st-3 home on Saturday - Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian, and Noble Yeats - will all be looking for a stamina-sapping strong pace on rain softened ground in March, but I fear they will all be struggling come the final 2 fences. Maybe it's time to look again at Bravemansgame? One notable performance, and there were a few, was from Stage Star who carried 11:10 to win the novice h'cap chase in some style. The form looks rock solid, and he looks certain to go well in the "Turners" on Cheltenham Thursday, as that's a race that should cut-up. Trainer Paul Nicholls also sent out Il Ridoto to win over the same trip later in the afternoon, and he looks really interesting going forward, and keep an eye out for the 3 who finished in from of him on New Years Day: Midnight River, Stolen Silver, and Nassalam.  The 3-mile Stayers Hurdle was thrown a curved ball when French-trained Gold Tweet won the Cleeve Hurdle. With Teahupoo elevated to being the antepost fav after a fairly facile win in the "Galmoy" - and I'm not really convinced by either Teahupoo or Home By The Lee - I think this Grade 1 race is primed for a surprise result.

The Irish Arkle on Saturday looks like being a race to savour - what a field! In my opinion, Appreciate It is not a 7/4 chance with this opposition, and if I'm having a wager it won't be on him. It's the other Mullins entries I'm interested in: Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, and Saint Roi (Flame Bearer is the one Mullins entry that I think isn't good enough to be in the field and will likely be used to set the pace). I'm not yet convinced Dysart Dynamo can jump well enough at speed to win this race, but if he does then he will likely win. Ditto El Fabiolo, who I have already punted on for the "Arkle" in March. The one Mullins horse that can jump, and was a very good hurdler (we can only guess how good Appreciate It could have been as a hurdler), is Saint Roi.  He was ridden with a lot of confidence on Boxing Day here at Leopardstown, in a race with good pace - and if he doesn't win this then he should be in the 1st-3, and there are 3-places in this 8-runners race. I'm not convinced that this trip of 2m1f is long enough to see Banbridge at his best, and he will likely struggle in this race.  For me, the best value in the race is EL FABIOLO; he's generally 5/1 (Bet Victor have him at 11/2) as we know he has speed, and has shown he can jump. Like the others, he now has to combine these skills - there will be mistakes, almost certainly one will fall - and I'd rather be on a 5/1 chance to find out than one at 7/4. If Appreciate It wins today then, at as a 9yo, we could be looking at another Moscow Flyer.

The Irish Gold Cup is all about Galopin Des Champs, but he won't have it all his own way.   The 11yo Kemboy will ensure that this is a proper test, as will Stattler (who I have already punted on for the Gold Cup in March), but do not overlook the only entry by Gordon Elliott: Fury Road. He's not top-class, and at OR158 is just a bit too good for anything but the very best handicaps, but he goes well over this C&D as shown when he beat Run Wild Fred who went on to chase home Stattler in the NH Chase at Cheltenham.  If Galopin Des Champs wins today by more than 10-lengths, then he could start odds-on in the Gold Cup. If he only just scrapes home, or is beaten, then we could see a big shake-up in the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Let's be honest: he's unlikely to be beaten on merit as he looks an exceptional horse. God forbid that he falls today, that is no way to win a wager on a horserace. However, it is still 6 weeks to the Gold Cup in March, and horse's do get injured on their home gallops - that's the risk the odds represent. Come 3:15pm today and you could wish that you have £5,000 on at 13/8 for the Gold Cup - but, personally this is a race for watching.

At 3:40 at Leopardstown, we have a Grade B handicap hurdle over 3-miles, and the one in this that I have a personal interest in is Jungle Prose. For a few years I was a member of the Nick Gifford Racing Club, having joined it just a few months before Covid kicked-in. The club had 2 horses, both mares: Mystic Dreamer (who had already won a bumper at Cheltenham) and Jungle Prose. As restrictions were lifted, I was able to attend Warwick races in Sept2020 to watch "JP" in a bumper there. She made-all and won at 14/1 - with it being the last race of the day and only 40-odd people on the course, you can possibly hear me shouting her home on the race video as I had £20 on with the only on-course bookmaker. I apologised for having the wager when I collected my winnings. She went hurdling and I had high hopes, as we knew she was resolute, gave her all, and had a bit of speed about her. Also, with Yeats as a sire, I expected her to be at her best when tackling trips over 2m6f.   Sure enough, a year later in the autumn of 2021, she was racing at 3-miles but kept finding one-too-good in her races. We also found out that she absolutely hated very soft & heavy ground. That winter, 2021-22, she struggled and when the better weather came in the Spring bringing good ground, she had lost her mojo. We thought we'd gone as far as we could with her and, as she had a half-decent page, that a small breeder could pick her up at the sales and try their luck with her in the paddocks. Off she went, and we received a better sale-price than we were expecting; then we learnt who had bought her: Gordon Elliott. 

The rest, they say, is history - Jungle Prose ran a fair race on her stable debut over a trip too short for her (2m4f), and then stepped-up to 2m7f on "good" ground she won 3-weeks later. Then, she won again, and again, and again making 4 wins on the bounce in 5 weeks, and going from OR85 to OR137.  She was tried in a Grade 2 hurdle on 27-Dec but struggled on the soft/heavy ground: no surprise there!  It will be a tough ask for her today, but she has her trip and ground (yielding), plus a 7lb claimer in the saddle. Good luck to her new owners, the Bull On Syndicate - and I see she has an entry at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle over 3-miles, so I may see you there. 

Cheltenham Festival Novice Races - Thursday

 There's only the one novice race on the 3rd day of the Festival, that's the "Turners" Novice Chase over 2m4f which opens the meeting. Before that, this Saturday I will be at Cheltenham for what's going to be a "bumper" card of 9 races for Trials day. 

The handicaps on Saturday have the look of being real cracking races: there's still 24 horses in the Timeform Novices h'cap Chase over an extended 2m4f; and 28 horses in the Class 1 h'cap chase over the same trip later in the day. I'm really looking forward to seeing the rescheduled Clarence House Chase with Edwardstone meeting Energumene - and I think Alan King's chaser has a chance. The Cotswold Chase brings together some of the better staying chase handicappers in the UK, and hopefully the ground won't be heavy. I've already placed a large wager on Protektorat at 9/1 for the Gold Cup in March, so I'm expecting him to win on Saturday, but he won't have it all his own way.  I will go into more detail on Protektorat and his chances in the Gold Cup next week after he's won on Saturday.  As for the Cleeve Hurdle, it looks like being an interesting contest, especially as the race fav Paisley Park (currently in the form of his life at 11yo) is conceding 6lb to Dashel Drasher.

Onto the Turners, and the race has a new fav - Appreciate It. Yes, he won well over 2-mile at Naas on 08Jan, but it was a facile win; and you also have to take into account that the only time he's raced beyond 2-miles is when he won a bumper. He holds two entries at the Dublin Festival, in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle over 2-mile, and in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Steeplechase over 2m5f but the latter race is usually contested (and won) by horses that go on to contest the "Broadway" over 3-miles at Cheltenham.  Mighty Potter is also entered for the Ladbrokes Steeplechase, which suggests connections have given up on a tilt at the Arkle at Cheltenham, which (for me) is disappointing. However, I reckon Mighty Potter is the one they have to beat in this race! Sir Gerhard has his chase debut tomorrow at Gowran Park, and if he wins well then he will come into consideration for this race and the Arkle. The interesting James Du Berlais is probably more suited to 3-miles than 2m4f, but he needs to run again to give us some inkling as to his true ability. Banbridge just does not look good enough to be a Grade 1 chaser, and will probably be seen in a novice handicap in March. El Fabiolo is almost certainly going for the Arkle, as is Dysart Dynamo. This could be a race which may pay having a punt at a long odds horse as of all the horses at odds under 20/1, the only one that I think is near guaranteed to run in this race is Mighty Potter. One to consider is Gentlemansgame at 33/1 who won his chase debut easily over 2m5f, and may attempt this than the Broadway or NH Chase over 3m6f. 

For me, the only wager to recommend in the Turners Novice Chase over 2m4f is MIGHTY POTTER at 7/2 (available with Paddy Power). As the small speculative wager on Mighty Potter is almost certainly lost, I'm having double the stake, £10 on in the "Turners".

Antepost Wagers

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

(already advised):

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Total Staked to Date: £60

Cheltenham Novice Races - Festival Wednesday

Before starting at look at the Novice chases & hurdle races on Festival Wednesday, let's have a quick update on last Saturday's blog. The Supreme Novices Hurdle betting has moved a bit with Marine Nationale solid at 5/1 despite not running - he benefitted from the performance of the horse he beat on 04Dec. That was Champ Kiely, who improved considerably for the step-up in trip to 2m4f, and dominated Irish Point who was 2nd in the 04Dec race) in the process. With Champ Kiely being yet another from the Mullins stable, it's difficult to see any other trainer winning the "Supreme" this March. I fully expect Mullins to have at least 2 in the race on the day, and joining Facile Vega will likely be Impaire Et Passe who has an entry this Sunday at Punchestown in a Grade 2 over 2-miles. I'm tempted to take the 12/1 offered by Bet365 as if he wins well on Sunday he will likely shorten to 4/1. Paul Nicholls sent Tahmuras to win the "Tolworth" at Sandown last Saturday, but the manner of his win suggests he may prefer the 2m5f "Ballymore" although connections appear to favour the "Supreme" which, if the ground was soft, would be perfect for him.  In the Arkle, the Mullins-trained Appreciate It won very easily last Sunday; so easily that it is difficult to estimate just how good he is.  As such, I'm still of the opinion that stablemate El Fabiolo is the most likely "1st string" for Mullins in this race, ahead of Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo. My other advised wager in this race is Mighty Potter, and he's now 33/1 with Skybet. 

Festival Wednesday opens with the Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2m5f, and this is one of the more prestigious novice races at the Festival. The betting is currently headed by the Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen who is unbeaten in 3 races to date, and probably would be fav for the 3-mile "Albert Bartlett" if guaranteed to run. The big mover is Champ Kiely who won a Grade 1 last Sunday beating Irish Point: that looked a very strong performance as Irish Point chased him all the way to the line. The negative for me is that he's a 7yo, and I think he could do better over 3-miles. Mullins also has Gaelic Warrior who holds a lot of entries after a facile win LTO; however he was only just beaten at Cheltenham last March in the Juvenile H'cap hurdle, so he ticks a few boxes. As above, I think Impaire Et Passe will go for the "Supreme" and not this race (as will Facile Vega).  As such, as I wrote last week, we come to the lightly raced Inthepocket, who looks destined to run in this race but we need to see him run again before the Festival. Finally, there's another unbeaten horse who has done everything asked of him, and that's Marine Nationale. He beat Irish Point LTO with Champ Keily in 4th - will he run in the Ballymore or the Supreme? There is 25/1 being offered by Skybet and that's worth a small wager.

The 2nd race on the Wednesday card is the "Broadway" Novice Chase over an extended 3-miles. Which Irish-trained horses go for this race depends on the outcome of the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown run on 5th Feb. Personally, I think the current fav - Gaillard Du Mesnil - is there to taken on; he was 3rd in this race last year as a 6yo and I don't think he's improved since then. Gerri Colombe is more likely to go for the NH Chase over 3m6f on the opening day, it may pay to hang on and see if he runs at Leopardstown in early February.  For me, the horse that should be the clear fav is Thyme Hill: he's done nothing wrong in his racing career over hurdles and fences and is absolutely top-drawer. Both Bet365 and Skybet offer 8/1 (Hills are 7/1 NRNB) and considering the performance of his win LTO and that he handles Cheltenham and is being aimed at this race, taking 7/1 NRNB is a no-brainer to me. With doubts over the target race for both of the other Mullins fancied horses, Classic Getaway and James Du Berlais, Thyme Hill has to be the strongest selection yet for the Cheltenham Festival.

At the time of completing this blog (Sunday morning 15th Jan) the 12/1 on Impaire Et Passe for the "Supreme" Hurdle has gone, and the best odds available are 10/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes.

Antepost Wagers

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

 (already advised):

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Total Staked to Date: £35

Cheltenham Festival Novice races - opening day

After looking at the main Grade 1 races in the previous blog, I will take a look at the Grade 1 Novice races, both hurdle and chase, starting with those on the opening day of the Festival. 

The opening race on Tuesday is the Supreme Novices Hurdle over an extended 2-miles, and this race is always hotly contested with the roll of previous winners including Vautour, Douvan, Altior, Shishkin, and Constitution Hill - and that's just from the past 10 years. The current odds-on fav is last years "Champion Bumper" winner, Facile Vega trained by Willie Mullins who seems to have a stranglehold on the race. He also has Impaire Et Passe who could easily be the fav without Facile Vega; Gaelic Warrior who was 2nd in last years Juvenile Handicap; and Il Etait Temps who was easily beaten by Facile Vega on 27Dec and is a decent yardstick for the fav. On the face of it, Facile Vega is a worthy fav at this stage: but odds-on? We could see some horses making very rapid improvement - and remember, Cue Card was an 8-length winner of the Champion Bumper but ran 4th in the "Supreme" when 7/4 fav.  I'm looking at something that may be worth taking a punt on, and one that looks interesting is Inthepocket trained by Henry de Bromhead: unbeaten in 3 races, he won with a lot in-hand LTO over 2m4f and whatever race he goes for at the Festival, take note.

The Arkle Novice Chase is a spectacular event when there is more than a handful of runners, and this year  we could have a decent sized field. Again, we have a worthy fav in Jonbon who, so far, looks a high-class novice chaser.  The Irish challenge is currently headed by Appreciate It (winner of the "Supreme" in 2021), but he really does need to step-up on his chase debut performance NTO. I'm more interested in El Fabiolo who chased home Jonbon at Aintree where he was beaten just a neck. El Fabiolo easily beat the capable Colonel Mustard, who was 3rd in the County Hurdle won by State Man with First Street in 2nd - he looks the type who could be a 160+ chaser. Mullins also has Dysart Dynamo, but he had a facile win on his chase debut, and - as with Appreciate It and El Fabiolo - we need to see him jump in a proper race. What I cannot believe is why punters are not shouting from the rooftops the ability of Mighty Potter: his win at Fairyhouse on 4th Dec was absolutely top-drawer novice chasing. Yes, it was 2m4f, but he would not be the 1st winner of the Arkle to have won over 2m4f before taking this. Sure, he will most likely go for the "Turners" over 2m4f on the Thursday of the Festival, but such is his ability it would be no surprise to me to see him run in the Arkle, one of the Grade 1 races at the Festival that Gordon Elliott is yet to win (he's won the Turners twice: Samcro in 2020 and Shattered Love in 2018). Mullins also has the very capable novice Saint Roi, but I think he will have a tilt at the one of the handicaps for his owner JP McManus, something like the "Johnny Henderson" in which "JP" had Andy Dufresne run 2nd off OR155 last March.

The final race of the day is the National Hunt Novices Chase over 3m6f, which is restricted to amateur riders. The short-priced fav is currently Gaillard Du Mesnil who is in his 2nd season as a novice having failed to win in 5 chase runs last season, which included a 3rd place in the 3-mile "Broadway" novice chase won by L'Homme Presse. Unlike L'Homme Presse, I don't think GDM has improved since last March, but he is a very consistent performer.  I think he's there to be taken on and there is certainly more than a few in the betting that look capable of a decent challenge: for instance the unbeaten Gerri Colombe trained by Gordon Elliott and one who looks bred for this race and is sure to go well especially if the ground is soft. Elliott also has Chemical Energy, who won at Cheltenham over 3-miles when last seen in October but he only beat 2 others that day, and the horse's he beat ran extremely poorly - it's very difficult to weigh-up that form. Along with the fav for this race, Willie Mullins has 6 other entries, and the one that looks most interesting to me is Minella Cocooner, who was beaten by stablemate Classic Getaway LTO over a 2m4f trip. That was too short for Minella Cocooner at at 20/1 he could be an interesting speculative wager given he ran 2nd in the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle last March over 3-mile. And do not ignore Gentlemansgame who ran a competent chase debut over 2m5f and is another who will improve for the increase in trip.

It is a speculative wager, but I'm taking the 25/1 offered by Paddy Power on MIGHTY POTTER for the Arkle, as if he starts this race he will surely go off the 2nd or 3rd fav.  In the same race I'm taking the 11/2 offered by Bet365 on El FABIOLO, as he is just as talented as Jonbon and will probably shorten in the market considerably should he win at the Dublin Festival in a few weeks time.

Antepost Wagers:

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)