The 445th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Sometimes I wonder if I'd be better off having a wager on everything that I consider has a chance in a race irrespective of subsequent developments.
Yesterday, I looked at the beginners' chase over 3m1½f at Catterick at 4:50 (I wrote the wrong race-time on my blog), and narrowed the race down to just 3 horses: Howizee (my 1st choice), The Red Laird, and Carmela Maria. They duly finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd with HOWIZEE wining at odds of 7/2 with less than a length covering the trio. I did say that it was a close call in my blog with little separating them, but I didn't think that would be the actual case on the track! Actually, while I was right about The Red Laird disputing the lead for most of the race, HOWIZEE never looked the likely winner (in my opinion) until his jockey galvanised a burst of energy from him that took him into the lead 100 yards from home. The Tricast paid £87.75 and even the Exacta paid £19.60, both to a £1 stake. Unfortunately, by 4:50pm, I had already lost my "trade" on BILLY MURPHY. I sincerely thought he had a decent chance of breaking his duck in this race , but he ran extremely poorly.
There are 3 jump meetings today at Bangor, Folkestone and Southwell. At Bangor, the handicap hurdle over 2m4f at 3:25 looks interesting, particulary the entry of Quartz De Thaix by Venetia Williams. I was on Quartz De Thaix when he was a running-on 7th behind Holmwood Legend at Cheltenham last March, and he last won over hurdles at 2m4f at Aintree. He runs off OR140 today and he looks a better than 18/1 chance as I write. The odds for this race are severely distorted by the race fav Big Easy. I also like Cantlow in this race, as he looks a potential improver and I've been waiting a long time for his return to the track.
At Folkestone, we have the 3m7f Kent National at 4:15. Only 7 go to post, and when we have single-figure fields for these long-distance races the results can be unpredictable. I'd be willing to have a wager on WIDE RECIEVER who has not looked like stopping improving yet, but it would only be a small bet at that. Finally, at Southwell, where the going is on the firm side, I am struggling to find an interest.
So, another day without a blog selection but don't despair, racing seems to pick-up from tomorrow and we have some good looking handicaps over the next few days. I'm disappointed that ZARRAFAKT is going for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster on Saturday as I reckon he had a cracking chance of the JLT Speciality Chase on Tuesday at Cheltenham, but perhaps his OR145 rating (which will likely lead to an 11st 3lb weight) has put connections off. My eye is drawn to OGEE on OR130 for that race which he ran 2nd in as a 7yo novice. I'm also taken by Keiran Burke's comments in today's Weekender on FORTIFICATION for the Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase. He says he is tempted to renew his jockey license for the ride, and that says something to me! Currently 33/1 for the race, and with just OR131, that means he'll receive 25lb (and carry just 10st 1lb) from Garde Champetre. Being a front-runner who stays all day long he could be a worthwhile eachway wager in a race I usually swerve.
My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 34 trades / 19 "wins" / 9 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +36.70%.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. So, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information. If you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
All comments are welcome.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 29 February 2012
Tuesday, 28 February 2012
Fwd: Superstitious?
The 444th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
When I lived in Hong Kong, I was told that the local Chinese had a fear (if that's the correct interpretation) of the number 4. As such, being the 444th edition of the blog, if I'm ever likely to post a losing wager then it's today. We'll give it about 18months or so and, when I post my 888th blog, then we will really go to town!
I'm not superstitious (at least, I don't believe I am – my friends may say otherwise) but I do think that we can (subconsciously) conspire to affect the fate of certain acts. For instance, if you think that you are going to be late, then your actions will make you late.
The meeting at Plumpton yesterday did not produce any worthwhile wagers for me. The opening race saw the syndicate horse (in which I have a share) CHILWORTH LASS run for the 3rd time over hurdles, and she now qualifies for a hurdle rating. I'm still in the dark as to what her preferences are so I will await the rating given her by the handicapper and leave it to her trainer Sheena West. My Betfair "trade" also ran in that race. It was a back-to-lay on Hawkhill and it came close to being successful as at the 3rd last flight he looked like being involved. What I didn't bank on was Venetia Williams' debut hurdler DUAISEOIR wining very impressively and this could be one to follow in the coming weeks. There was a significant gamble on Primaries in this race who was 4/1 in the morning and started the 7/4 fav. Having looked a one-paced and very doubtful stayer in France, I could not understand the reason for the support and so it proved as the horse was beaten half-a-mile out.
We have a couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Leicester. The beginners' chase over 3m1½f at Catterick at 4:20 looks very interesting and could be one to watch with the Festival in mind. I'm looking more at the next race for a trade and the 3m1½f class 4 hurdle looks like it may throw-up some trading possibilities. There are a lot of duffers in this race, including Donald McCain's Realmont who is very much on a recovery mission having shown nothing in 2 runs since arriving from France. I don't think the going will be soft enough for The Red Laird, and perhaps the same can be said for Carmela Maria who has won twice recently over C&D. As such, I'm liking HOWIZEE who won well at Doncaster over an extended 3-mile on similar going to today, but who did not enjoy the soft going LTO at Kelso. I'm hoping that his jockey will track the leader (who should be The Red Laird) before taking closer order about 3-out and (hopefully) providing me with an opportunity to trade-out at a profit. I really can't say which will win this, it could be one of the 3 mentioned or another of the outsiders in the race. In fact, the more I look at this race, the more I think I may steer clear.
I'm struggling to find a wager at Leicester also, altho' I think BILLY MURPHY may well break his "duck" in the 3:30. Still a maiden after 25 races , I doubt he will find a better opportunity that this to win as only Free Speech looks capable of defying him, but he needs to recover from his latest couple of poor runs.
If you are in the market for an antepost wager on the Cheltenham Festival, Bet365 have today started tasking wagers "non-runner, no bet". Their odds are not the best but the offer is there. For the Arkle Chase, Paddy Power are offering to refund all losing single wagers up to £100 should the fav for the race Sprinter Sacre win. If you have been receiving my antepost emails then you may want to take advantage of that Paddy Power offer with the wager that I have advised.
My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 33 trades / 19 "wins" / 8 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +41.90%.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. So, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information. If you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
All comments are welcome.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
When I lived in Hong Kong, I was told that the local Chinese had a fear (if that's the correct interpretation) of the number 4. As such, being the 444th edition of the blog, if I'm ever likely to post a losing wager then it's today. We'll give it about 18months or so and, when I post my 888th blog, then we will really go to town!
I'm not superstitious (at least, I don't believe I am – my friends may say otherwise) but I do think that we can (subconsciously) conspire to affect the fate of certain acts. For instance, if you think that you are going to be late, then your actions will make you late.
The meeting at Plumpton yesterday did not produce any worthwhile wagers for me. The opening race saw the syndicate horse (in which I have a share) CHILWORTH LASS run for the 3rd time over hurdles, and she now qualifies for a hurdle rating. I'm still in the dark as to what her preferences are so I will await the rating given her by the handicapper and leave it to her trainer Sheena West. My Betfair "trade" also ran in that race. It was a back-to-lay on Hawkhill and it came close to being successful as at the 3rd last flight he looked like being involved. What I didn't bank on was Venetia Williams' debut hurdler DUAISEOIR wining very impressively and this could be one to follow in the coming weeks. There was a significant gamble on Primaries in this race who was 4/1 in the morning and started the 7/4 fav. Having looked a one-paced and very doubtful stayer in France, I could not understand the reason for the support and so it proved as the horse was beaten half-a-mile out.
We have a couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Leicester. The beginners' chase over 3m1½f at Catterick at 4:20 looks very interesting and could be one to watch with the Festival in mind. I'm looking more at the next race for a trade and the 3m1½f class 4 hurdle looks like it may throw-up some trading possibilities. There are a lot of duffers in this race, including Donald McCain's Realmont who is very much on a recovery mission having shown nothing in 2 runs since arriving from France. I don't think the going will be soft enough for The Red Laird, and perhaps the same can be said for Carmela Maria who has won twice recently over C&D. As such, I'm liking HOWIZEE who won well at Doncaster over an extended 3-mile on similar going to today, but who did not enjoy the soft going LTO at Kelso. I'm hoping that his jockey will track the leader (who should be The Red Laird) before taking closer order about 3-out and (hopefully) providing me with an opportunity to trade-out at a profit. I really can't say which will win this, it could be one of the 3 mentioned or another of the outsiders in the race. In fact, the more I look at this race, the more I think I may steer clear.
I'm struggling to find a wager at Leicester also, altho' I think BILLY MURPHY may well break his "duck" in the 3:30. Still a maiden after 25 races , I doubt he will find a better opportunity that this to win as only Free Speech looks capable of defying him, but he needs to recover from his latest couple of poor runs.
If you are in the market for an antepost wager on the Cheltenham Festival, Bet365 have today started tasking wagers "non-runner, no bet". Their odds are not the best but the offer is there. For the Arkle Chase, Paddy Power are offering to refund all losing single wagers up to £100 should the fav for the race Sprinter Sacre win. If you have been receiving my antepost emails then you may want to take advantage of that Paddy Power offer with the wager that I have advised.
My trading record on Betfair since 1st January is now: 33 trades / 19 "wins" / 8 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +41.90%.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. So, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information. If you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
All comments are welcome.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 27 February 2012
Quiet day at the races
The 443rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I took a day-off on Saturday, I reckoned I'd earned it having posted a 10/1 winner with my only selection on Friday. REBLIS was my 1st advised selection since the 28th January. Some tipsters post selections every day, but I always follow my selections with my own money and I post what I consider to be realistic wagers.
Instead, I took the train up to London Bridge and went to Borough Market. After an enjoyable breakfast, I meandered thru' the market stalls with my girl-friend and bought cheese, chocolate, scallops and tuna, and a cracking 35-day T-Bone steak from the Ginger Pig butcher. Cooked on a hot griddle with some choice salad leaves, who needs a restaurant!
Back to racing , and on Saturday we had the running of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton, which was won by Baby Mix in decisive fashion. The Adonis Hurdle has provided 56 of the last 12 winners of the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival so clearly Baby Mix should be respected. However, later on the card at Kempton GRUMETI won his "prep" race for the Triumph in similar fashion and he is rightfully at the head of the market at 5/1.
Just the one jumps meeting in the UK today, at my local track of Plumpton. We had a very bright and sunny weekend here on the South downs, but we also had some heavy showers; so I'm expecting the ground at Plumpton to have a few soft patches. The opening race sees syndicate horse Chilworth Lass at the track again. I must admit, I can't see her winning this at the morning fav for the race HAWKHILL looks very strong and I'm surprised he's as long as 11/4 (Bet365 and Blue Square). Alan King has done well at Plumpton this season and his Kings Bayonet looks the most likely to trouble the fav. I'm hoping for another good run from Chilworth Lass, but she may be run out of the places.
Friday provided another successful trade on Betfair (it was a back-to-lay on Reblis, who I also had a separate wager on at 10/1 with William Hill). The "trading" record since 1st January is now: 32 trades / 19 "wins" / 7 "losses" / 6 "trade-outs"; the ROI stands at +53.50%.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that you get enjoyment from it.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. So, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information. If you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
All comments are welcome.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 25 February 2012
Great 10/1 winner y'day - single selection
The 442nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
REBLIS did me proud yesterday, given a great ride by the 5lb claimer Joshua Moore. Sometimes, you need patience in this game as a punter and I've waited a couple of weeks since my last recommended wager. It was worth it, and thanks for the donations!
Just a brief blog today, as the racing looks ordinary for a Saturday.
At Chepstow, I like Educated Evans in the 3:45 (he's a half-bro to Tricky Trickster).
At Newcastle, the Eider Chase looks a poor renewal, but the Novice Chase over 3-mile looks well worth paying attention to with Cheltenham on the horizon.
At Kempton, do not under-estimate Planet Of Sound in the Racing Plus Chase. Has anyone read the Racing Plus yet? I've not seen a copy. My old mate Sarando looks gone with the game, not sure what's happened with him.
That's it for today. After yesterday's 10/1 winner with my only selection I reckon I've earned the day off so I'm going to Borough Market for breakfast.
REBLIS did me proud yesterday, given a great ride by the 5lb claimer Joshua Moore. Sometimes, you need patience in this game as a punter and I've waited a couple of weeks since my last recommended wager. It was worth it, and thanks for the donations!
Just a brief blog today, as the racing looks ordinary for a Saturday.
At Chepstow, I like Educated Evans in the 3:45 (he's a half-bro to Tricky Trickster).
At Newcastle, the Eider Chase looks a poor renewal, but the Novice Chase over 3-mile looks well worth paying attention to with Cheltenham on the horizon.
At Kempton, do not under-estimate Planet Of Sound in the Racing Plus Chase. Has anyone read the Racing Plus yet? I've not seen a copy. My old mate Sarando looks gone with the game, not sure what's happened with him.
That's it for today. After yesterday's 10/1 winner with my only selection I reckon I've earned the day off so I'm going to Borough Market for breakfast.
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