What a day for followers of the blog on Saturday.
Just 3 selections given, and all 3 returned in profit with Top Notch failing by just a "neck" having traded at under 1.30 on the exchanges "in-running", and both WAKANDA and SMAD PLACE winning at odds of 8/1 and 15/2 respectively. On the day, for £35 staked we turned a profit of £138.13. And from the emails from those who donate (to obtain the blog via email) I know many of you combined the selections in doubles and trebles. For instance, the 3 selections in 3 x £2 eachway doubles, and a £2 eachway treble (total stake of £16) would have returned £219.41 profit.
Some bad news I received yesterday, and that is that VINTAGE STAR who won for us so well a few weeks ago, has died at his home stables. I'm not sure about the circumstances, apparently the news is in today's Racing Post newspaper. The horse gave this blog good service and went onto the alert list when he ran well (beaten by his stablemate, Cloudy Too) on his chasing debut. Some of his best performances were in defeat, like when pushing Hey Big Spender close in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November 2013, and then being headed 75 yards from the post when 2nd in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January 2014. He didn't like racing at Cheltenham, and he didn't have the stamina for a National, but he did us proud.
No selections today.
Monday, 30 November 2015
Saturday, 28 November 2015
Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury
A tremendous day of jump racing lies ahead, with 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor. We therefore have a lot of opportunity to pick and choose our target races.
Before that, a look back at Friday's selections and unfortunately Maximiser fell when leading 6-out. Given that the fav Activial was easily beaten, had Maximiser completed the race I'm fairly confident that he'd have won this race. Next up was Upepito, and he gave us a great run, jumping the final fence in front before tying-up on the run-in to be 2nd. That was very disappointing. I did have a doubt over the trip beforehand, but thought he had so much in-hand he could counter that. As it happened, it's not stamina he lacks but a will to win.
Onto today's racing, and the ground is "heavy" at Bangor, so I'm passing that meeting over as (with heavy ground) results can sometimes be unpredictable.
Doncaster has an interesting Class 3 novice handicap chase over 2m3f at 1:55pm, and I'm drawn to the 6yo Katachenko who won his seasonal debut on 31st October (which was his 3rd chase race) and he looks a progressive horse. His rating of OR129 looks lenient as he looked like making OR135+ as a hurdler, and he stays this trip. The ground will also be in his favour, and I will be watching this race with interest.
Newcastle has soft ground, and that may be too testing for many.
The feature race of the meeting is the "Fighting Fifth" Grade 1 hurdle over 2-miles, which has been won by some very good horses. Last year, Irving won and he returns to try and repeat the victory. He certainly looks a better horse this season than last, but he's not the horse with the highest rating in the race; that is the Irish-trained Wicklow Brave. Personally, I think OR166 for Wicklow Brave is generous, and I have him about 10lb light of that - but he could (potentially) be a 160+ hurdler. I am more inclined to fancy the chance of the 4yo Top Notch sent by Nicky Henderson. Beaten just over a length last week, the 4yo is certain to improve on that run and I reckon he should reverse the places with Irving this time. Note than Henderson does not visit Newcastle often, and he has sent only 4 runners here since May 2011, and 3 have won! Unless there is an upset, the others look outclassed and odds of 5/1 about TOP NOTCH look great value, and even offer eachway potential - those are the odds that were available when the email was sent out last night.
The next race on the Newcastle card is the "Rehearsal" Chase, a Listed handicap over 2m7f, and we have the eagerly awaited course return of Wakanda, who won for supporters of the blog LTO when we "lumped-on" the night before the race and secured the best value. The handicap is a cracker, and gives me plenty to think about, as I also have alert list horses Cloudy Too, Ballykan, Saroque, and Final Assault in the race. Personally, I cannot see Saroque winning at this level as his jumping will likely let him down. This will be too tough for the 5yo novice Ballykan. Cloudy Too could run a big race, especially as the ground is soft but, for me, it is between Wakanda and Final Assault. The trip of 2m7f will test the stamina of Final Assault and, as I think Wakanda could be capable of reaching OR155+ this season, and he has no stamina doubts, he is the selection. WAKANDA was available at 8/1 last night and those on the email list have taken those odds.
Newbury holds the feature race of the day in the Hennessy Gold Cup handicap chase over 3m2f.
I looked at this race earlier in the week, and sent out my preview of the race to those on the email list. Essentially, my thoughts are that Smad Place should be the favorite as I think he's potentially a 5-7lb better horse than last season. He's the horse I expect to win today, and odds of 15/2 offered by BetVictor and William Hill are tremendous value about a horse I think should be 4/1.
Houblon Des Obeaux won't be far away either, with conditions in his favour and a favourable handicap mark. It is very difficult to see him not being in the 1st-4 and the 14/1 (available generally) is very fair. If Saphir Du Rheu wins today then he could be capable of winning a Gold Cup, but as I'm expecting a 160+ run from SMAD PLACE, the Saphir Du Rheu will have to run to 168+ to win this, and I'm not sure he's capable of that. Both Bobs Worth and If In Doubt should be thereabouts, but their odds do not represent value. This years race looks a weak renewal, and the market leaders should come to the fore.
Selections
Newcastle 2:05pm TOP NOTCH, £5 eachway @ 5/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2)
Newcastle 2:40pm WAKANDA, £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 8/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Newbury 2:00pm SMAD PLACE, £5 eachway @ 15/2 (BetVictor, William Hill quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Before that, a look back at Friday's selections and unfortunately Maximiser fell when leading 6-out. Given that the fav Activial was easily beaten, had Maximiser completed the race I'm fairly confident that he'd have won this race. Next up was Upepito, and he gave us a great run, jumping the final fence in front before tying-up on the run-in to be 2nd. That was very disappointing. I did have a doubt over the trip beforehand, but thought he had so much in-hand he could counter that. As it happened, it's not stamina he lacks but a will to win.
Onto today's racing, and the ground is "heavy" at Bangor, so I'm passing that meeting over as (with heavy ground) results can sometimes be unpredictable.
Doncaster has an interesting Class 3 novice handicap chase over 2m3f at 1:55pm, and I'm drawn to the 6yo Katachenko who won his seasonal debut on 31st October (which was his 3rd chase race) and he looks a progressive horse. His rating of OR129 looks lenient as he looked like making OR135+ as a hurdler, and he stays this trip. The ground will also be in his favour, and I will be watching this race with interest.
Newcastle has soft ground, and that may be too testing for many.
The feature race of the meeting is the "Fighting Fifth" Grade 1 hurdle over 2-miles, which has been won by some very good horses. Last year, Irving won and he returns to try and repeat the victory. He certainly looks a better horse this season than last, but he's not the horse with the highest rating in the race; that is the Irish-trained Wicklow Brave. Personally, I think OR166 for Wicklow Brave is generous, and I have him about 10lb light of that - but he could (potentially) be a 160+ hurdler. I am more inclined to fancy the chance of the 4yo Top Notch sent by Nicky Henderson. Beaten just over a length last week, the 4yo is certain to improve on that run and I reckon he should reverse the places with Irving this time. Note than Henderson does not visit Newcastle often, and he has sent only 4 runners here since May 2011, and 3 have won! Unless there is an upset, the others look outclassed and odds of 5/1 about TOP NOTCH look great value, and even offer eachway potential - those are the odds that were available when the email was sent out last night.
The next race on the Newcastle card is the "Rehearsal" Chase, a Listed handicap over 2m7f, and we have the eagerly awaited course return of Wakanda, who won for supporters of the blog LTO when we "lumped-on" the night before the race and secured the best value. The handicap is a cracker, and gives me plenty to think about, as I also have alert list horses Cloudy Too, Ballykan, Saroque, and Final Assault in the race. Personally, I cannot see Saroque winning at this level as his jumping will likely let him down. This will be too tough for the 5yo novice Ballykan. Cloudy Too could run a big race, especially as the ground is soft but, for me, it is between Wakanda and Final Assault. The trip of 2m7f will test the stamina of Final Assault and, as I think Wakanda could be capable of reaching OR155+ this season, and he has no stamina doubts, he is the selection. WAKANDA was available at 8/1 last night and those on the email list have taken those odds.
Newbury holds the feature race of the day in the Hennessy Gold Cup handicap chase over 3m2f.
I looked at this race earlier in the week, and sent out my preview of the race to those on the email list. Essentially, my thoughts are that Smad Place should be the favorite as I think he's potentially a 5-7lb better horse than last season. He's the horse I expect to win today, and odds of 15/2 offered by BetVictor and William Hill are tremendous value about a horse I think should be 4/1.
Houblon Des Obeaux won't be far away either, with conditions in his favour and a favourable handicap mark. It is very difficult to see him not being in the 1st-4 and the 14/1 (available generally) is very fair. If Saphir Du Rheu wins today then he could be capable of winning a Gold Cup, but as I'm expecting a 160+ run from SMAD PLACE, the Saphir Du Rheu will have to run to 168+ to win this, and I'm not sure he's capable of that. Both Bobs Worth and If In Doubt should be thereabouts, but their odds do not represent value. This years race looks a weak renewal, and the market leaders should come to the fore.
Selections
Newcastle 2:05pm TOP NOTCH, £5 eachway @ 5/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2)
Newcastle 2:40pm WAKANDA, £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 8/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Newbury 2:00pm SMAD PLACE, £5 eachway @ 15/2 (BetVictor, William Hill quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Friday, 27 November 2015
Newbury "Hennessy" meeting - Day 2
Another profitable return yesterday, when blog selection Belmount ran 3rd at 9/1 having been advised as an eachway selection. Only 6yo, this was encouraging from Belmount and he remains of interest and on the alert list. I was right to avoid the favorite in the race Wuff, as he ran very disappointingly.
There is a cracking day of racing today, with another excellent card at Newbury. With such an array of decent races to choose from, I'm going to pass over the Class 3 hadicap chase over 2m2f for Conditional Jockeys' at 12:55pm. The next on the card is the 3-mile Class 3 handicap hurdle and while I don't usually have wagers in hurdle races, I do like 3-mile hurdles (as very few horses can stay 3-miles effectively at a decent racing pace) and we have alert list runner in the top-weight Open Hearted who won for readers of the blog LTO, and the form of that race has worked out very well. Also, Open Hearted ruins off a hurdle rating of OR142 which is 3lb lower than his chase rating (OR145) and that may well be lenient, too. With those at the head of the market looking a bit vulnerable: Sykes has been raised 7lb for his LTO win, and Missed Approach not having run since last December - the 12/1 available on Open Hearted (Coral, and Stan James) looks fair eachway value for a horse we know will stay the trip, is race-fit and can win with top-weight.
We have other alert list runner in the Grade 2 novice chase over 2m4f at 2:05pm in Sametegal and Maximiser though, at the weights, I'm only really interested in Maximiser. The race fav is Activial who is having his chase debut in this race, which is a tough ask. There is no substitute for chase form in novice chase races, and you have to see a horse jump a fence in a race before you can place a wager on it, in my opinion. Three Musketeers at 9/2 is the 3rd-fav, and needs to find a fair bit of improvement on his chase debut to win this, which is not impossible but I'd want longer odds than 9/2 to take the chance. However, Maximiser jumped well LTO when 2nd to Silsol (who has won again since) and the odds of 3/1 look fair, and I can see him starting at under 11/4. The race conditions (which see Sametegal conceding 7lb to Maximiser) make life tough for Sametegal.
The Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f at 2:40pm looks a cracker of a race. From the alert list we have Upepito who runs again off OR128 and has (in my opinion) about 7lb in hand, and the trip and soft ground will be in his favour. Also, he will be ridden by the capable Harry Skelton, brother of the trainer Dan Skelton, Odds of 4/1 look very fair as he will be receiving weight from the entire field. I am expecting a good run from alert list horse Royal Regatta who was left at the start LTO and did well to run 6th, but the trip will stretch him. Other alert list horses in the race are Upsilon Bleu and Roc D'Apsis. Back in 2013, Upsilon Bleu was 4th in this race when a 5yo, and he's improved a lot since then and looks interesting off OR147 and the soft ground will suit him. He could run a big race, but this looks a big ask for Roc D'Apsis who is up 10lb for his LTO win. If Niceonefrankie is in the form of last autumn he could take some beating, and the same can be said for Monetair - but both are 9yo and I prefer younger horses in these competitive handicaps.
Selections
Newbury 2:05pm MAXIMISER, £5 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
Newbury 2:40pm UPEPITO, £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
and
£5 win double on MAXIMISER and UPEPITO
Total staked = £20
There is a cracking day of racing today, with another excellent card at Newbury. With such an array of decent races to choose from, I'm going to pass over the Class 3 hadicap chase over 2m2f for Conditional Jockeys' at 12:55pm. The next on the card is the 3-mile Class 3 handicap hurdle and while I don't usually have wagers in hurdle races, I do like 3-mile hurdles (as very few horses can stay 3-miles effectively at a decent racing pace) and we have alert list runner in the top-weight Open Hearted who won for readers of the blog LTO, and the form of that race has worked out very well. Also, Open Hearted ruins off a hurdle rating of OR142 which is 3lb lower than his chase rating (OR145) and that may well be lenient, too. With those at the head of the market looking a bit vulnerable: Sykes has been raised 7lb for his LTO win, and Missed Approach not having run since last December - the 12/1 available on Open Hearted (Coral, and Stan James) looks fair eachway value for a horse we know will stay the trip, is race-fit and can win with top-weight.
We have other alert list runner in the Grade 2 novice chase over 2m4f at 2:05pm in Sametegal and Maximiser though, at the weights, I'm only really interested in Maximiser. The race fav is Activial who is having his chase debut in this race, which is a tough ask. There is no substitute for chase form in novice chase races, and you have to see a horse jump a fence in a race before you can place a wager on it, in my opinion. Three Musketeers at 9/2 is the 3rd-fav, and needs to find a fair bit of improvement on his chase debut to win this, which is not impossible but I'd want longer odds than 9/2 to take the chance. However, Maximiser jumped well LTO when 2nd to Silsol (who has won again since) and the odds of 3/1 look fair, and I can see him starting at under 11/4. The race conditions (which see Sametegal conceding 7lb to Maximiser) make life tough for Sametegal.
The Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f at 2:40pm looks a cracker of a race. From the alert list we have Upepito who runs again off OR128 and has (in my opinion) about 7lb in hand, and the trip and soft ground will be in his favour. Also, he will be ridden by the capable Harry Skelton, brother of the trainer Dan Skelton, Odds of 4/1 look very fair as he will be receiving weight from the entire field. I am expecting a good run from alert list horse Royal Regatta who was left at the start LTO and did well to run 6th, but the trip will stretch him. Other alert list horses in the race are Upsilon Bleu and Roc D'Apsis. Back in 2013, Upsilon Bleu was 4th in this race when a 5yo, and he's improved a lot since then and looks interesting off OR147 and the soft ground will suit him. He could run a big race, but this looks a big ask for Roc D'Apsis who is up 10lb for his LTO win. If Niceonefrankie is in the form of last autumn he could take some beating, and the same can be said for Monetair - but both are 9yo and I prefer younger horses in these competitive handicaps.
Selections
Newbury 2:05pm MAXIMISER, £5 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
Newbury 2:40pm UPEPITO, £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
and
£5 win double on MAXIMISER and UPEPITO
Total staked = £20
Thursday, 26 November 2015
"Hennessey" meeting Day 1
The 3-day Hennessy meeting opens today at Newbury.
Firstly, there was a development yesterday in the
Hennessy Gold Cup to be run on Saturday with the withdrawal of Valseur Lido,
which was the more fancied runner of the pair entered by Willie Mullins. That
means that if Ruby Walsh rides in the race he will most likely be on
Ballycasey, currently priced at 33/1 but unlikely to be those odds if Walsh is
in the saddle. However, it seems more
likely that Ruby Walsh will be at Newcastle on Saturday.
At Newbury today, we could see a future star chaser in
the opening novice hurdle in MODUS. Bred
to be a “Derby” winner, he’s not particularly quick (hence only 2 wins from 6
starts in NH flat races) but he hacked-up on his hurdling debut on 12th
November, and should win his race today at 12:30pm – but, as he’s quoted
odds-on at 8/15, he’s a “no-bet” from me.
The novice chases today at 2:10pm and 2:45pm should both watched
with interest as they will provide a host of potential decent chasers for the
future. In the Grade 2, novice chase
over 2m7f at 2:10pm, the fav is the David Pipe trained Un Temps Pour Tout, who
was trained to win the World Hurdle over 3-mile at the Festival last March, but
was unplaced. He was beaten on his chase debut 12-days ago and so should be
fitter for this today. However, Pipe’s
horses are not winning as many races as they should be and I don’t think this
horse is a value wager at 15/8. I think
it is interesting that Paul Nicholls, who has a good record in this race, has
sent Port Melon (he also had LTO winners Silsol and Katgary entered) , and I am
expecting a big run from this horse and 14/1 looks interesting.
The novice handicap chase over 2m6f at 2:45pm has been
won in 2 of the past 3 years by Paul Nicholls, and he sends the top-weight with
11st 8lb, Warriors Tale (current odds 6/1). Although the weights in this
handicap go down to 10st 5lb, the last 4 winners have all carried 11st-plus to
victory, suggesting the better class horses usually prevail. African Gold was a tremendous novice hurdler
but has suffered through injury for the past 2 seasons. Whereas Nitrogen is a
half-brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate, and could develop into
anything, such is his potential. Not an
easy race in which to find the winner.
There is one off my alert list running at Newbury today,
and that’s BELMOUNT in the Class 3 handicap chase over 3-mile for amateur
riders at 1:00pm. He’s a big horse who has won on heavy ground and tho’ he
struggled LTO at Exeter (started the fav but pulled-up 4-out) that race was run
at a fairly strong pace on testing, soft ground. His amateur jockey rode the runner-up in a
similar race at Cheltenham recently (readers of the blog were on the winner,
Knock House ridden by Nina Carberry) and retains his 7lb claim. Currently 9/1 this looks a weak race, and
BELMOUNT should be 5/1 for this based on his two completed chase races. He possibly won’t beat the 2/1 fav Wuff, but
Baby Shine usually needs a race under his bealt and this is his seasonal debut,
and he may have more to fear from Russe Blanc who was also in the Exeter race
but was well beaten in 6th. But, it looks unlikely that he will finish out of the 1st-3 (in my opinion) and he could well sneak a win.
Selection
Newbury 1:0pm BELMOUNT, £5 eachway @ 9/1 (BetVictor, 5th
odds a place 1,2,3 – other bookies go 8/1)
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