What a day for the Blog!
The were 269 readers, quite a good tally, but no comments and no donations and yet WHAT ABOUT THE ADVICE?!?!
DUC DES GENEIVRES @ 13/2 never looked in any danger, wins by a street;
and then
BEWARE THE BEAR, tipped-up on the blog on Sunday at 20/1, romps home.
A few lads in the office joined me in combination doubles and trebles, and I'm sure there were a few of you out there who have been reading this blog for the past 9 years and know and appreciate the value of my racing experience and knowledge. It was a cracking start to the Festival, thanks for reading and it would be appreciated if you leave a comment.
It will be difficult to repeat yesterday's success, but I can only try my best - Good Luck.
Day 2 - Ballymore Novices Hurdle run over 2m5f run @ 1:30pm
Since 2001, 9 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 52 days.
The last winner aged 7yo or older was French Holly in 1998 - stick to 6yo's and 5yo's.
Possibly the best "novice" race of the season (chase or hurdle) and the horses that win this are seriously top-drawer and will usually already have won a graded hurdle. Most winners have their final prep run in February and a minimum break of 28-days is required coming into this race. Stick with the market leaders.
The "Ballymore" is the shop-window of future NH Champions. Whether CHAMP will make the grade is debateable as he would be the first 7yo to win since 1998.
I also don't think BATTLEOVERDOYEN is good enough and he certainly lacks racing experience. CITY ISLAND is difficult to assess as winning at odds of 1/5 LTO suggests the test wasn't up to much. BREWIN'UPASTORM looked to be about to win the 2m4f Grade 2 hurdle here on Trial Day but clipped the final hurdle and went down. Unless something comes out of the long-shots (doubtful) the race looks to be between CHAMP and BREWIN'UPASTORM and I favour the latter.
Not a betting race for me as there are too many imponderables.
Day 2 - RSA Insurance Novices Chase run over 3-miles & 80 yards run at 2:10pm
Since 2001, 10 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 31 days.
Only one recent winner (Don Poli in 2015) did not have their last prep race in mid-February. Horses that win this race generally have not been top-hurdlers as chasing is the game for which they have been aimed. Experience is the key and those starting chasing before 31st October is a good guide.
I thought last years field was strong, but this years looks even better!
The 12 runners are headed by DELTA WORK, and he looks a worthy fav especially as he's proven at the trip and won over 3-miles at last years Festival. SANTINI looks light on experience with only 4 hurdle races and 2 chase runs, and he isn't good value in the betting. I prefer his stablemate ON THE BLIND SIDE who is also light on experience but has the benefit of a winning recent run. The most likely danger to the fav will be TOPOFTHEGAME, who like the fav, ran well over hurdles at last years festival when 2nd over 2m5f. I'm expecting 3rd place to go to either MORTAL (who I hoped would have run in the 4-mile NH Chase on Tuesday) or MISTER MALARKY who could be one of those horses that never seems to give up.
The odds on DELTA WORK have drifted as his trainer Gordon Elliott has not had a good start to the Festival, and at 11/4 he is worth a wager as he ticks a lot of boxes.
DELTA WORK, £10 @ 11/4 (available generally).
Day 2 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle run over 2m5f run at 2:50pm
Since 2001, 8 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 50 days.
Don't overlook those running off a very long break, Aux Ptit Soins (2015) won off a 181 day break; Sky's The Limit (2006) won off 102 days; Naiad de Misselot (2008) won off 83 days; Ninetieth Minute (2009) off 80 days. Although the 2018 winner hadn't won a race that season, 14 of the last 16 winners had.
You need a horse that has already won once this season and comes into this race off a good long break.
The LTO winners BRIO CONTI, CANARDIER, HIGHEST SUN, ERAGON DE CHANAY, ERICK LE ROUGE, VISION DES FLOS and JOKE DANCER
I can't have CANARDIER as he's been off the track too long at 138 days. Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race so BRIO CONTI is interesting, except he's a hold-up horse and on this tacky ground it is going to be difficult to get into the race from off the pace. I'm not happy ERICK LE ROUGE is ridden by a 7lb claimer as this isn't a place to learn the ropes. VISION DES FLOS appears to be handicapped to the hilt off OR150. Both JOKE DANCER and ERAGON DE CHANAY look to not have enough pace for a race like this. However, HIGHEST SUN has been running in some decent races, and has improved with every run this season. He is untried at this trip but he looks like he's capable of laying-off the leaders and coming with a run at the business end.
Other horses that have won this season (but are not LTO race winners) that we should consider are WICKLOW BRAVE who I feel he is a bit old now at 10yo, as is the 10yo MONBEG THEATRE. BALLYANDY looks to be a bit high in the handicap at OR148, but he may be on the premises. One that jumps off the page is SCARPETA, who was 4th behind Samcro in the Ballymore last year. It looks like he has been aimed specifically at this race and his handicap rating of OR151 looks fair given the ability he has shown.
My 2 against the field are:
SCARPETA, £5 eachway @ 22/1 (Bet365, quarter-odds for 5 places)
and
HIGHEST SUN, £5 eachway @ 18/1 (Bet365, quarter-odds for 5 places)
Day 2 - Queen Mother Champion Chase run over 2-miles run at 3:30pm
Since 2001, 13 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 49 days.
It will take a mighty horse to lower the colours of 2018 winner ALTIOR. This isn't a race in which to seek an outsider, stick to the market leaders which are already Grade 1 winners over this trip.
It is very difficult to envisage anything beating ALTIOR who seems to show just enough brilliance to win his races. The Mullins trained MIN is a two-miler who would win 4 out of 5 Champion Chases, but he's been unfortunate to come up against a horse that is perhaps one of the best two-mile chasers that we've seen in modern days. The only horse that I may consider punting on is MIN but it is more in hope than certainty.
Another no-bet race for me.
At this point in the afternoon, I am leaving the office for the 3-hour drive to Cheltenham. I have absolutely no interest at all in the Cross-Country Chase, and a race like the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over 2-mile really should not be given house-room at the Cheltenham Festival, and while I think the "bumper" is a worthwhile race, finding the winner is not easy unless you are close to the winning stable.
Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Tuesday, 12 March 2019
Cheltenham 2019 - day 1 (Tuesday 12th March)
There has been no overnight rain, but there is a rainstorm over Cheltenham for a few hours before racing, so the ground could be softer than expected. As such, I will be watcing the opening race to see what effect the weather has on the ground, even though I am expecting the 4yo FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES to win.
Remember, this is a 4-day Festival, keep to your staking plans, don't dwell on losses and bad luck, remain optimistic and enjoy yourself. BE LUCKY.
DAY 1 - Supreme Novice Hurdle over 2m & 87 yards run @ 1:30pm
Since 2001, 14 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 39 days.
Since 2001; Labaik (2017) and Go Native (2009) won off a short 16-day break, and in all 12 of the 17 won off a break of 40 days or less - the others being Captain Cee Bee (2008) 115 days; Cinders And Ashes (2012) 52 days; Douvan (2015) 59 days; Altior (2016) 80 days, and Summerville Boy (2018) 66 days.
On the day of the race it invariably pays to stick the the 1st-4 in the betting and that's the angle to play. The 2018 winner Summerville Boy was running in his 5th hurdle race, and that means that the last 10 winners have all had 4 or more hurdle races.
The well-fancied ELIXIR DE NUTXZ is a non-runner (lame).
The race fav AL DANCER has the requisite 4 hurdle runs, unlike ANGELS BREATH (2 runs) and KLASSICAL DREAM (2 runs). However, he has to concede 8lb to the 4yo FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES (4 runs) should he run in this race and not the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, and that looks too much to ask. GRAND SANCY is on the upgrade and there is not much between him and the 4/1 fav AL DANCER.
At this stage of the older horses AL DANCER looks the one to beat, however with the 8lb 4yo allowance FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES (13/2 with Bet Victor) can win for the Irish.
A "no-bet" race for me.
Day 1 - Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase over 2-mile run @ 2:10pm
Since 2001, 13 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 44 days.
Essentially you are looking for a high-class hurdler that runs a winning debut as a chaser with that debut coming before 7th December. The 2018 winner Footpad had won a graded chase, and of the last 17 winners, 14 have won a graded chase before winning this - and there are not many such races for novice chasers.
I am surprised that GLEN FORSA is as low 9/2 for this race, as he is - in my opinion - about a 145 chaser which is about 12lb below the level of usual "Arkle" winners. LALOR @ 6/1 did look interesting when winning his chase debut last year, but his run NTO at Sandown in December was very poor, and with no races since then he could be very ring-rusty on Tuesday, not one to take 4/1 about. Willie Mullins has not had much look with his 2-mile chasers, but his best representative is DUC DES GENIEVRES (13/2 generally) who looked much improved when winning LTO over 2m4f. Do not underestimate this horse, he won LTO in a canter and in a quick time. There has been a lot of good words recently for HARDLINE (5/1 generally) who comes from the Gordon Elliot stable and his form looks fair given he doesn't stay much beyond 2-mile. He was fortunate to beat Getabird at Limerick on 26Dec, as that rival made a bad blunder at the final fence when looking the winner, and he didn't have the stamina to compete with La Bague Au Roi over 2m5f at Leopardstown when he was last seen.
With doubts over the market leaders, what else is there in the race? PALOMA BLUE does not look good enough a chaser, and KALASHNIKOV needs to learn to jump a fence at speed. ORNUA was last seen (like LALOR) running at Sandown in December. The 9yo KNOCKNANUSS could have them all off-the-bridle and it's unfortunate that he fell when over in Ireland LTO.
About a week ago, I really fancied HARDLINE for this but, over the weekend, my opinion has favoured DUC DES GENIEVRES.
I've already placed £5 on HARDLINE @ 7/1 antepost
and will also have £10 on DUC DES GENIEVRES @ 13/2 as I'm expecting him to win.
Day 1 - Ultima Handicap Chase run over 3m1f run @ 2:50pm
Since 2001, 8 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 30 days - so it is imperative that your selection has had a good recent run. Since 2001, those that have won off the longest breaks were Joe's Edge (2007) off 114 days; Wichita Lineman (2009) 94 days; and Youllneverwalkalone (2003) 58 days - most winners had their "prep" race for this on the final Saturday in January.
Look for a novice or 2nd-season chaser with less than 10 chase runs - you are trying to find a horse that is ahead of the handicapper. 9yo's plus are 2 wins from 102 in past 10 years; whereas 7yo & 8yo's are 7 wins from 100.
The 2018 winner Coo Star Sivola ran off OR142 and only 2 of the last 11 winners have won from a rating under OR142.
Always a very tricky to fathom as weight now appears to be no barrier to winning. Last years' winner COO STAR SIVOLA runs this year off only 3lb higher rating of OR145 but he does not come into the race on the same level of form as last year. I will be very surprised if current fav GIVE ME A COPPER wins as this will be only his 4th chase race.
I posted an in-depth review of this race on Sunday afternoon, and my shortlist is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race.
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148.
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1: I did suggest this one on Sunday if the rain stayed away, but the soft ground has done for his chances.
I've placed £10 win on all 3 on Sunday, but both UP FOR REVIEW (now 8/1) and BEWARE THE BEAR (now 9/1) have been gambled on so I cannot advise taking these reduced odds, but by all means take them if you are not already on.
Day 1 - Champion Hurdle over 2-mile & 87 yards run @ 3:30pm
Since 2001, 13 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 49 days.
The best form for this race is usually the result of the previous year! Ideally, you a looking for a horse that is already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, and only one (Annie Power in 2016) winner had run in more than 11 hurdle races from the the last 12 renewals - so you do not want too many miles on the clock.
Is BUVEUR D'AIR (11/4 generally) about to become one of the all-time great hurdlers, or will we have another mare (with the 7lb mares' allowance) taking the title of Champion Hurdler? On the face of it, APPLE'S JADE (with 20 hurdle races on her CV) should win on known form, but have we yet seen BUVEUR D'AIR pushed to show his best? Regular readers will know that I've been on SHARJAH for a long time, mainly as I expect him to be the Mullins 1st-string and he could produce a turn-of-foot on the run-in that takes the race. We shall see.
A "no-bet" race for me as I'm intending on laying-off my £20 on SHARJAH at some point as Ruby Walsh rides Laurina and the stable is not anticipating SHARJAH winning.
A "no-bet" race for me.
Day 1 - Mares' hurdle run over 2m4f run @ 4:10pm
Since 2001, 9 of the 11 winners won LTO (race was first run in 2008).
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 173 days, but this is distorted by 6-time winner Quevega who won 5 times off a break of over 300 days. Without Quevega, the mean number of days is 31 days. Personally, I think this race is increasing in quality.
Ruby Walsh reckons BENIE DES DIEUX is his most likely winning ride and it's difficult tio imagine this mare being beaten.
Day 1 - Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase run over 2m4f &44 yards run @ 4:50pm
Since 2001, 8 of the 14 winners won LTO (race was first run in 2005).
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 33 days.
The 2018 winner Mister Whitaker was the 3rd winner in the last 6 years to come out of the Timeform Novice Chase run at Cheltenham on the last Saturday in January.
This is a tightly-handicapped novice chase with only 9lb covering the field. You need an improving horse that won LTO - note that 7 of the last 10 winners WON LTO.
Always a very competitive race, I managed to find the winner last year, can I do it again?
Of the LTO winners, MILITARIAN with 10 runs is too exposed, ditto WALT (11 runs). THE RUSSIAN DOYEN may be best at 2-mile, but ROARING BULL ticks all the boxes, as does RIDERS ONTHE STORM. There is probably not much improvement left in 9yo HUNTSMAN SON. The 6yo QUAMINO has a great race profile but will he stay? LOUGH DERG SPIRIT looks the best of the home team, or is he? I was at Cheltenham when HIGHWAY ONE O ONE was 2nd in the Timeform Novice Chase and a similar run here will see him on the premises. He is best-priced at 12/1 and is well worth an each way wager..
Day 1 - National Hunt Challenge Cup (amateur riders) Novices' Chase run over 4-mile
Since 2001, 6 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 46 days.
In recent years, the official ratings has been the best guide, and 2 of the top-3 rated in 2018 finished 1st & 2nd (the other fell). Due to the 4-mile trip, chasing experience is a good guide to a horses chance, and 2018 winner Rathvinden was having his 11th chase race, and the 2nd Ms Parfois was having her 6th chase race. One of the best betting races of the Festival once you know what is running at the 48hr declaration.
In recent years this race has been the most significant staying novice chase at the Festival, much more influential than the RSA Novice Chase. The best horse on official ratings if OK CORRAL on OR153, but I feel this rating is inflated. Next best is BALLYWARD and for his last race, he won off a super confident ride by Ruby Walsh. A faller at the final fence that day was DISCORAMA and he was under a hard drive from a long way out, and I can't see him beating BALLYWARD. None of the 1st-3 in the betting have had more than 3 chase races, but IMPULSIVE STAR was 4th in this race last year and has shown himself to be an improved horse this year, He can be in the 1st-3 and is an eachway wager at 12/1. LE BREUIL has the best amateur in the business in the saddle in JJ Codd, but I can't see that advantage getting him home first. Of the others, if JERRYSBACK can last out this trip he could be in the picture, and ATLANTA ABLAZE has the 7lb mares' allowance so she is effectively on 150 and she stays well. And I am surprised that CHEF DEC OBEAUX has not more support as he stays well and seems to have learnt to jump a fence. For me, this is all about BALLYWARD and odds of 11/4 look decent.
Advised Wagers:
2:10 - DUC DES GENIEVRES £10 win @ 13/2
4:50 - HIGHWAY ONE O ONE £5 eachway @ 12/1
5:30 - BALLYWARD - £10 win @ 11/4
Remember, this is a 4-day Festival, keep to your staking plans, don't dwell on losses and bad luck, remain optimistic and enjoy yourself. BE LUCKY.
DAY 1 - Supreme Novice Hurdle over 2m & 87 yards run @ 1:30pm
Since 2001, 14 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 39 days.
Since 2001; Labaik (2017) and Go Native (2009) won off a short 16-day break, and in all 12 of the 17 won off a break of 40 days or less - the others being Captain Cee Bee (2008) 115 days; Cinders And Ashes (2012) 52 days; Douvan (2015) 59 days; Altior (2016) 80 days, and Summerville Boy (2018) 66 days.
On the day of the race it invariably pays to stick the the 1st-4 in the betting and that's the angle to play. The 2018 winner Summerville Boy was running in his 5th hurdle race, and that means that the last 10 winners have all had 4 or more hurdle races.
The well-fancied ELIXIR DE NUTXZ is a non-runner (lame).
The race fav AL DANCER has the requisite 4 hurdle runs, unlike ANGELS BREATH (2 runs) and KLASSICAL DREAM (2 runs). However, he has to concede 8lb to the 4yo FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES (4 runs) should he run in this race and not the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, and that looks too much to ask. GRAND SANCY is on the upgrade and there is not much between him and the 4/1 fav AL DANCER.
At this stage of the older horses AL DANCER looks the one to beat, however with the 8lb 4yo allowance FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES (13/2 with Bet Victor) can win for the Irish.
A "no-bet" race for me.
Day 1 - Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase over 2-mile run @ 2:10pm
Since 2001, 13 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 44 days.
Essentially you are looking for a high-class hurdler that runs a winning debut as a chaser with that debut coming before 7th December. The 2018 winner Footpad had won a graded chase, and of the last 17 winners, 14 have won a graded chase before winning this - and there are not many such races for novice chasers.
I am surprised that GLEN FORSA is as low 9/2 for this race, as he is - in my opinion - about a 145 chaser which is about 12lb below the level of usual "Arkle" winners. LALOR @ 6/1 did look interesting when winning his chase debut last year, but his run NTO at Sandown in December was very poor, and with no races since then he could be very ring-rusty on Tuesday, not one to take 4/1 about. Willie Mullins has not had much look with his 2-mile chasers, but his best representative is DUC DES GENIEVRES (13/2 generally) who looked much improved when winning LTO over 2m4f. Do not underestimate this horse, he won LTO in a canter and in a quick time. There has been a lot of good words recently for HARDLINE (5/1 generally) who comes from the Gordon Elliot stable and his form looks fair given he doesn't stay much beyond 2-mile. He was fortunate to beat Getabird at Limerick on 26Dec, as that rival made a bad blunder at the final fence when looking the winner, and he didn't have the stamina to compete with La Bague Au Roi over 2m5f at Leopardstown when he was last seen.
With doubts over the market leaders, what else is there in the race? PALOMA BLUE does not look good enough a chaser, and KALASHNIKOV needs to learn to jump a fence at speed. ORNUA was last seen (like LALOR) running at Sandown in December. The 9yo KNOCKNANUSS could have them all off-the-bridle and it's unfortunate that he fell when over in Ireland LTO.
About a week ago, I really fancied HARDLINE for this but, over the weekend, my opinion has favoured DUC DES GENIEVRES.
I've already placed £5 on HARDLINE @ 7/1 antepost
and will also have £10 on DUC DES GENIEVRES @ 13/2 as I'm expecting him to win.
Day 1 - Ultima Handicap Chase run over 3m1f run @ 2:50pm
Since 2001, 8 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 30 days - so it is imperative that your selection has had a good recent run. Since 2001, those that have won off the longest breaks were Joe's Edge (2007) off 114 days; Wichita Lineman (2009) 94 days; and Youllneverwalkalone (2003) 58 days - most winners had their "prep" race for this on the final Saturday in January.
Look for a novice or 2nd-season chaser with less than 10 chase runs - you are trying to find a horse that is ahead of the handicapper. 9yo's plus are 2 wins from 102 in past 10 years; whereas 7yo & 8yo's are 7 wins from 100.
The 2018 winner Coo Star Sivola ran off OR142 and only 2 of the last 11 winners have won from a rating under OR142.
Always a very tricky to fathom as weight now appears to be no barrier to winning. Last years' winner COO STAR SIVOLA runs this year off only 3lb higher rating of OR145 but he does not come into the race on the same level of form as last year. I will be very surprised if current fav GIVE ME A COPPER wins as this will be only his 4th chase race.
I posted an in-depth review of this race on Sunday afternoon, and my shortlist is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race.
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148.
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1: I did suggest this one on Sunday if the rain stayed away, but the soft ground has done for his chances.
I've placed £10 win on all 3 on Sunday, but both UP FOR REVIEW (now 8/1) and BEWARE THE BEAR (now 9/1) have been gambled on so I cannot advise taking these reduced odds, but by all means take them if you are not already on.
Day 1 - Champion Hurdle over 2-mile & 87 yards run @ 3:30pm
Since 2001, 13 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 49 days.
The best form for this race is usually the result of the previous year! Ideally, you a looking for a horse that is already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, and only one (Annie Power in 2016) winner had run in more than 11 hurdle races from the the last 12 renewals - so you do not want too many miles on the clock.
Is BUVEUR D'AIR (11/4 generally) about to become one of the all-time great hurdlers, or will we have another mare (with the 7lb mares' allowance) taking the title of Champion Hurdler? On the face of it, APPLE'S JADE (with 20 hurdle races on her CV) should win on known form, but have we yet seen BUVEUR D'AIR pushed to show his best? Regular readers will know that I've been on SHARJAH for a long time, mainly as I expect him to be the Mullins 1st-string and he could produce a turn-of-foot on the run-in that takes the race. We shall see.
A "no-bet" race for me as I'm intending on laying-off my £20 on SHARJAH at some point as Ruby Walsh rides Laurina and the stable is not anticipating SHARJAH winning.
A "no-bet" race for me.
Day 1 - Mares' hurdle run over 2m4f run @ 4:10pm
Since 2001, 9 of the 11 winners won LTO (race was first run in 2008).
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 173 days, but this is distorted by 6-time winner Quevega who won 5 times off a break of over 300 days. Without Quevega, the mean number of days is 31 days. Personally, I think this race is increasing in quality.
Ruby Walsh reckons BENIE DES DIEUX is his most likely winning ride and it's difficult tio imagine this mare being beaten.
Day 1 - Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase run over 2m4f &44 yards run @ 4:50pm
Since 2001, 8 of the 14 winners won LTO (race was first run in 2005).
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 33 days.
The 2018 winner Mister Whitaker was the 3rd winner in the last 6 years to come out of the Timeform Novice Chase run at Cheltenham on the last Saturday in January.
This is a tightly-handicapped novice chase with only 9lb covering the field. You need an improving horse that won LTO - note that 7 of the last 10 winners WON LTO.
Always a very competitive race, I managed to find the winner last year, can I do it again?
Of the LTO winners, MILITARIAN with 10 runs is too exposed, ditto WALT (11 runs). THE RUSSIAN DOYEN may be best at 2-mile, but ROARING BULL ticks all the boxes, as does RIDERS ONTHE STORM. There is probably not much improvement left in 9yo HUNTSMAN SON. The 6yo QUAMINO has a great race profile but will he stay? LOUGH DERG SPIRIT looks the best of the home team, or is he? I was at Cheltenham when HIGHWAY ONE O ONE was 2nd in the Timeform Novice Chase and a similar run here will see him on the premises. He is best-priced at 12/1 and is well worth an each way wager..
Day 1 - National Hunt Challenge Cup (amateur riders) Novices' Chase run over 4-mile
Since 2001, 6 of the 17 winners won LTO.
The mean number of days since previous race (for the winner) is 46 days.
In recent years, the official ratings has been the best guide, and 2 of the top-3 rated in 2018 finished 1st & 2nd (the other fell). Due to the 4-mile trip, chasing experience is a good guide to a horses chance, and 2018 winner Rathvinden was having his 11th chase race, and the 2nd Ms Parfois was having her 6th chase race. One of the best betting races of the Festival once you know what is running at the 48hr declaration.
In recent years this race has been the most significant staying novice chase at the Festival, much more influential than the RSA Novice Chase. The best horse on official ratings if OK CORRAL on OR153, but I feel this rating is inflated. Next best is BALLYWARD and for his last race, he won off a super confident ride by Ruby Walsh. A faller at the final fence that day was DISCORAMA and he was under a hard drive from a long way out, and I can't see him beating BALLYWARD. None of the 1st-3 in the betting have had more than 3 chase races, but IMPULSIVE STAR was 4th in this race last year and has shown himself to be an improved horse this year, He can be in the 1st-3 and is an eachway wager at 12/1. LE BREUIL has the best amateur in the business in the saddle in JJ Codd, but I can't see that advantage getting him home first. Of the others, if JERRYSBACK can last out this trip he could be in the picture, and ATLANTA ABLAZE has the 7lb mares' allowance so she is effectively on 150 and she stays well. And I am surprised that CHEF DEC OBEAUX has not more support as he stays well and seems to have learnt to jump a fence. For me, this is all about BALLYWARD and odds of 11/4 look decent.
Advised Wagers:
2:10 - DUC DES GENIEVRES £10 win @ 13/2
4:50 - HIGHWAY ONE O ONE £5 eachway @ 12/1
5:30 - BALLYWARD - £10 win @ 11/4
Monday, 11 March 2019
Cheltenham 2019 - one day to go and the tension builds!
The Cheltenham Festival for 2019 commences tomorrow at 1:30pm when the most welcome roar in sport will herald the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
I've no real handle on the juvenile hurdle form, but having watched FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES demolish what was supposed to be top-class field on 26th January, after which he was considered a major player in the 4yo Triumph Hurdle market, I cannot understand how he's 11/2 for this race when he is in-receipt of the 8lb "4yo's" allowance. With a rating of OR150, he'd be competitive without the allowance, so if he's as good as he was in January then he will take all the beating.
The opening day is one of the best days' racing in the calendar, and while there are championship races on all the other 3 days of the Festival, the opening day is the best.
Straight after the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, we have the Arkle Novices Chase over 2-mile and how this race develops will depend on the effect of the weather the evening and through the night. A real rainstorm is expected and we could end up with soft ground in the morning, which would not be good for the likes of LALOR. If the ground is on the soft-side, it could pay to support a horse with the ability and stamina to stay 2m4f and there is a horse that's under the radar in this respect in DUC DES GENIEVRES trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend. This horse massacred a talented field of novices at Gowran on 16th February over the same C&D as the Grade 2 "Red Mills" Chase won by Monalee (with 2018 Gold Cup 3rd Anibale Fly in 2nd ) and he did it in a time that was considerably quicker. That's food for thought. So far, I've considered 3 horses capable of being involved in the finish of the "Arkle" and all 3 - Duc Des Genievres, Hardline, and Knocknanuss - go to post.
Yesterday I posted a preview of the "Ultima" Handicap Chase over 3m1f and came up with a shortlist of 3: UP FOR REVIEW, BEWARE THE BEAR and OLDGRANGEWOOD. Since posting, there has been an almighty market move for UP FOR REVIEW from 14/1 to 8/1 as the world and his dog cotton's on to the fact that this horse could be "chucked-in" running off just OR148. As I said to my old mate @EpsomAl yesterday afternoon "this horse could be another Total Recall" (Total Recall won the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase off OR147 and is now rated OR155).
I still think BEWARE THE BEAR has an excellent eachway chance, and if the rain stays away from Cheltenham (doubtful, but you never know) then OLDGRANGEWOOD will make a mockery of his 80/1 odds.
The disappointment of learning the declarations for Tuesday & Wednesday was learning that MORTAL was not in the 4-mile NH (Novices) Chase, and was running in the 3-mile RSA Novices Chase instead. The RSA Chase is a much tougher assignment for MORTAL and while I hold a 16/1 antepost voucher on his for the race, I doubt he's much chance of beating the market leaders.
I was glad to see MIN declared for the Champion Chase as that means he will not be in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday. Unfortunately, POLITOLOGUE has also been declared for the Champion Chase so my slim possibility of laying-off my antepost wager on his for the Ryanair has gone.
The final 3 races on the card on Wednesday: the Cross Country, the 2-mile Juvenile (4yo) handicap hurdle, and the Bumper; hold no real interest for me. So I will be leaving the office at about 4pm on Wednesday and driving to Cheltenham to meet friends old and new, drink a few beers and enjoy the atmosphere.
I've no real handle on the juvenile hurdle form, but having watched FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES demolish what was supposed to be top-class field on 26th January, after which he was considered a major player in the 4yo Triumph Hurdle market, I cannot understand how he's 11/2 for this race when he is in-receipt of the 8lb "4yo's" allowance. With a rating of OR150, he'd be competitive without the allowance, so if he's as good as he was in January then he will take all the beating.
The opening day is one of the best days' racing in the calendar, and while there are championship races on all the other 3 days of the Festival, the opening day is the best.
Straight after the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, we have the Arkle Novices Chase over 2-mile and how this race develops will depend on the effect of the weather the evening and through the night. A real rainstorm is expected and we could end up with soft ground in the morning, which would not be good for the likes of LALOR. If the ground is on the soft-side, it could pay to support a horse with the ability and stamina to stay 2m4f and there is a horse that's under the radar in this respect in DUC DES GENIEVRES trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend. This horse massacred a talented field of novices at Gowran on 16th February over the same C&D as the Grade 2 "Red Mills" Chase won by Monalee (with 2018 Gold Cup 3rd Anibale Fly in 2nd ) and he did it in a time that was considerably quicker. That's food for thought. So far, I've considered 3 horses capable of being involved in the finish of the "Arkle" and all 3 - Duc Des Genievres, Hardline, and Knocknanuss - go to post.
Yesterday I posted a preview of the "Ultima" Handicap Chase over 3m1f and came up with a shortlist of 3: UP FOR REVIEW, BEWARE THE BEAR and OLDGRANGEWOOD. Since posting, there has been an almighty market move for UP FOR REVIEW from 14/1 to 8/1 as the world and his dog cotton's on to the fact that this horse could be "chucked-in" running off just OR148. As I said to my old mate @EpsomAl yesterday afternoon "this horse could be another Total Recall" (Total Recall won the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase off OR147 and is now rated OR155).
I still think BEWARE THE BEAR has an excellent eachway chance, and if the rain stays away from Cheltenham (doubtful, but you never know) then OLDGRANGEWOOD will make a mockery of his 80/1 odds.
The disappointment of learning the declarations for Tuesday & Wednesday was learning that MORTAL was not in the 4-mile NH (Novices) Chase, and was running in the 3-mile RSA Novices Chase instead. The RSA Chase is a much tougher assignment for MORTAL and while I hold a 16/1 antepost voucher on his for the race, I doubt he's much chance of beating the market leaders.
I was glad to see MIN declared for the Champion Chase as that means he will not be in the Ryanair Chase on Thursday. Unfortunately, POLITOLOGUE has also been declared for the Champion Chase so my slim possibility of laying-off my antepost wager on his for the Ryanair has gone.
The final 3 races on the card on Wednesday: the Cross Country, the 2-mile Juvenile (4yo) handicap hurdle, and the Bumper; hold no real interest for me. So I will be leaving the office at about 4pm on Wednesday and driving to Cheltenham to meet friends old and new, drink a few beers and enjoy the atmosphere.
Sunday, 10 March 2019
Cheltenham 2019 - 2 days to go - ULTIMA CHASE H'cap
Just minutes after posting yesterdays blog, the twitter rumour went round that MONALEE was missing the Ryanair Chase and heading for the Gold Cup. Honestly, the only reason that I can think of taking the possible fav for the Ryanair Chase out of a race that he might well win and entering the Cheltenham Gold Cup which he almost certainly won't win is to give the owner the kudos of being in the paddock before the premier race of the festival.
This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we have 24 runners going to post and it is difficult to discount any of them. Since 2001, of the 17 winners, 8 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners. The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Horses aged 9yo or older are 2 wins from 102 runners in the past 10 years, whereas those aged 7yo & 8yo are 7 wins from 100 runners - last years winner COO STAR SIVOLA was the only 6yo winner.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult. That rules our COO STAR SIVOLA (88 days), NOBLE ENDEAVOUR (94 days), BIG RIVER (86 days) and SINGLEFARMPAYMENT (88 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out SIZING CODELCO (23 runs), ROYAL VACATION (15 runs), CALIPTO (16 runs), VINTAGE CLOUDS (15 runs), GENERAL PRINCIPLE (18 runs), FLYING ANGEL (17 runs), and CATAMARAN DU SEUIL (16 runs) .
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
LAKE VIEW LAD: won LTO (prestigious Rowland Meyrick handicap chase at Warwick on Boxing Day), and up 8lb to OR155 will need a career-best effort (capable of being involved in the Gold Cup) to win this race.
O O Seven: Only 1 win from 6 chase races at 3-mile, his best form is around 2m5f.
MINELLA ROCCO: was 2nd in 2017 Gold Cup, but not shown similar form since and it's a leap of faith to consider him a likely winner.
ACTIVIAL: Well beaten on only attempt at 3-mile as a novice chaser, and didn't stay on both attempts at 3-mile as a hurdler.
MISTER WHITAKER: never run beyond 2m5f before, not sure this is the right race to find out if he stays beyond 3-mile.
BEWARE THE BEAR: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race. He's 20/1 with Bet365.
MAGIC OF LIGHT: Probably will stay this 3m1f trip but handicap mark of OR149 looks tough.
CRUCIAL ROLE: Only 4 chase races, a 3-mile hurdle winner and won LTO over extended 2m6f on 25Feb, however he is prone to bleeding.
UP FOR REVIEW: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148. Currently 14/1 with Bet365.
GIVE ME A COPPER: Only had 3 chase runs, and 2 were in 2017 before returning off an 18 month break to run 4th on 02Feb over 3-mile. That form wasn't great and he needs to find 15lb to be involved in this, but trainer Paul Nicholls talks a good race!
WILLIE BOY: Did not look a 3-mile chaser when beaten on his 1st attempt at the trip LTO and OR145 looks a tough rating for him.
SHANTOU VILLAGE: Hasn't looked like a 3-mile chaser (beaten both attempts) and best at 2m5f.
OLDGRANGEWOOD: Run once (at Aintree) over 3m1f, and the soft ground probably beat him that day. So long as the ground isn't soft, he could well run a big race as he looks to have been prepared for this race. Currently he's 40/1 with BetVictor.
My shortlist of 3 is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1
And I've placed wagers on all three.
This morning, the 48hrs declarations came out for the opening day of the Festival, and with this information in mind, I am taking an in-depth look at the Ultima Handicap Chase over 3m1f to be run on Tuesday.
One of the best handicap chases of the season, we have 24 runners going to post and it is difficult to discount any of them. Since 2001, of the 17 winners, 8 have been "last-time-out" (LTO) winners. The "mean" number of days since that previous race for winners of this handicap is 30 days - so it is very important that your selection has had a recent run, and a good one at that. Horses aged 9yo or older are 2 wins from 102 runners in the past 10 years, whereas those aged 7yo & 8yo are 7 wins from 100 runners - last years winner COO STAR SIVOLA was the only 6yo winner.
I avoid horses which last ran before Christmas Day this season, as it is very difficult to win top competitive races at the Festival off such a long break - not impossible, but very difficult. That rules our COO STAR SIVOLA (88 days), NOBLE ENDEAVOUR (94 days), BIG RIVER (86 days) and SINGLEFARMPAYMENT (88 days).
Horses with more than 15 chase runs are probably too exposed to win a handicap as competitive as this, so that rules out SIZING CODELCO (23 runs), ROYAL VACATION (15 runs), CALIPTO (16 runs), VINTAGE CLOUDS (15 runs), GENERAL PRINCIPLE (18 runs), FLYING ANGEL (17 runs), and CATAMARAN DU SEUIL (16 runs) .
Those horse's that remain, let's look at in some detail:-
LAKE VIEW LAD: won LTO (prestigious Rowland Meyrick handicap chase at Warwick on Boxing Day), and up 8lb to OR155 will need a career-best effort (capable of being involved in the Gold Cup) to win this race.
O O Seven: Only 1 win from 6 chase races at 3-mile, his best form is around 2m5f.
MINELLA ROCCO: was 2nd in 2017 Gold Cup, but not shown similar form since and it's a leap of faith to consider him a likely winner.
ACTIVIAL: Well beaten on only attempt at 3-mile as a novice chaser, and didn't stay on both attempts at 3-mile as a hurdler.
MISTER WHITAKER: never run beyond 2m5f before, not sure this is the right race to find out if he stays beyond 3-mile.
BEWARE THE BEAR: ran 4th in this race last year off OR150, races off OR151 and won LTO when in 1st-time blinkers he made all over 3m2f (6 of the last 7 winners of this race wore headgear) and with blinkers applied again, he can run a major race. He's 20/1 with Bet365.
MAGIC OF LIGHT: Probably will stay this 3m1f trip but handicap mark of OR149 looks tough.
CRUCIAL ROLE: Only 4 chase races, a 3-mile hurdle winner and won LTO over extended 2m6f on 25Feb, however he is prone to bleeding.
UP FOR REVIEW: Won a Grade 2 novice hurdle on 31Dec15, and was top-class novice hurdler in 2015-16. Injured for 2 years, was highly tried novice chaser last Spring (2018) and was only beaten by Grade 1 novice chasers at Fairyhouse last April. Off a long break, ran a great race to be 3rd in Thyestes Chase on 24Jan and looks on decent mark of OR148. Currently 14/1 with Bet365.
GIVE ME A COPPER: Only had 3 chase runs, and 2 were in 2017 before returning off an 18 month break to run 4th on 02Feb over 3-mile. That form wasn't great and he needs to find 15lb to be involved in this, but trainer Paul Nicholls talks a good race!
WILLIE BOY: Did not look a 3-mile chaser when beaten on his 1st attempt at the trip LTO and OR145 looks a tough rating for him.
SHANTOU VILLAGE: Hasn't looked like a 3-mile chaser (beaten both attempts) and best at 2m5f.
OLDGRANGEWOOD: Run once (at Aintree) over 3m1f, and the soft ground probably beat him that day. So long as the ground isn't soft, he could well run a big race as he looks to have been prepared for this race. Currently he's 40/1 with BetVictor.
My shortlist of 3 is:-
BEWARE THE BEAR @ 20/1
UP FOR REVIEW @ 14/1
OLDGRANGEWOOD @ 40/1
And I've placed wagers on all three.
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