Pyledriver and the "King George" at Ascot

 There has been a fair amount of debate over the running of the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1) at Ascot on 23rd July 2022, a race won by the 5yo colt PYLEDRIVER.  The main consternation being that the winner was the rank outsider of the 6 runners; going off at an SP of 18/1 having traded at odds of up to 28/1 on the day of the race.  

Many of the comments on Twitter were from disgruntled punters who, on the basis of the result, thought the "game was gone"!  From my perspective, as a value punter, I had posted a comment on Twitter about 5 hours before the race stating that Pyledriver was no forlorn hope despite being 25/1 (at the time).   

Why did I post that comment? First reason is there were only 6 runners in the race, so for any horse to be 25/1 in a race with so few runners then it must be well outclassed, or running in a race which is unsuitable (wrong trip, wrong ground). This race is run at Ascot over a mile & a half (12 furlongs) and Pyledriver went into the race as a Course & Distance winner (on 16June2020, Group 2), so no issues on that score. Furthermore, he went into the race with an official rating of OR119, with his highest rated rival being Mishriff on OR125; so again he was not really "outclassed". On official ratings only 8lb covered the six runners so, on paper, it looked a competitive race - yet the race fav was the 3yo Westover who went off at odds of just 13/8.

Further measure of the competitive nature of the race warrants a quick review of the other runners:

Torquator Tasso: winner of the 2021 Prix de L'Arc De Triomphe and rated OR123 (my rating 117).

Mishriff: winner of Group 1 races Juddmonte International; Sheema Classic, and the Prix Du Jockey Club coming into the race on OR125 (my rating 120).

Broome: recent winner of the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over C&D, and rated OR120 (my rating 115).

Westover: recent winner of the Irish Derby and rated OR120 (my rating 116).

Emily Upjohn: the only filly, and recently beaten a short-head in the Oaks at Epsom, rated OR117 (my rating 115).

How did I rate Pyledriver coming into the race? He was 2nd at Shatin over 12f in December, and repeated that level of form at Meydan in March in the Group 1 Sheema Classic, and he'd won the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Epsom in 2021.  Sure, he'd run below form on his previous race at Epsom when 2nd in this years Coronation Stakes to the consistent Hokum but, at his best he was capable of 120+ and I rated him 116+.

My idea of the most likely winner of the race on Saturday morning was Mishriff: he had the highest official rating and I also rated him highly; but he had been beaten in this race last year which suggested Ascot's 12f was too far for him after a similar preparation (ran placed in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown). So he wasn't one to take short odds about. His odds of 5/2 were about right, and there was no value in him.

Although my next highest rated was Torquator Tasso, his best form was on ground with some give and I thought the quick good-to-firm at Ascot would find him out. I thought he was a 12/1 chance, and so odds of 16/1 were interesting, but I just could not see him winning on this quick ground.  

With Broome a consistent failure at Group 1 level, he could not be considered a potential winner of this race, and his odds of 18/1 reflected his chance.  

I thought the betting significantly overrated the chance of the filly Emily Upjohn who was the lowest on official ratings and my personal ratings.  She should have been 25/1, and not 3/1 which made no sense to me at all. 

The fly in the ointment was Westover, and I swung away from him on the basis of 3yo's having poor recent form in this race and my opinion (based on the way he won at the Curragh) that perhaps the race would not be run as he wanted it. His odds of 13/8 were far too short - unless he was the "real deal" - but the form of the Derby and the Irish Derby had been let down, and he was more of a 3/1 chance.

The only runner in the race whose odds represented value was Pyledriver: his recent form was strong, he was more than capable of winning this race at his best form, and he was a C&D winner.  I thought odds of 4/1 fairly represented his chance before the race, and so the early 25/1 was a gift and I'm not surprised some value-seekers took that and he went off at 18/1.

I'm sure some will say it's easier to see in hindsight, but I'm not posting this to brag - I'm posting this to advise.  The betting market is what it says: it's a market where the bookies sell odds and if you don't think the odds represent value, then don't buy. I'll be honest: if I had been at Ascot my £40 would have been staked as £30 win on Mishriff, and £10 win on Pyledriver.   

The 2022 Grand National - 9th April

Crowds return to Aintree: home of the Grand National.

I'm sure this is going to be a fantastic race as there does not seem to be a horse holding an outstanding chance in the race.  It looks a real puzzle of a race to try and find the winner, and if successful that winner could be at decent odds. There are a lot of front-runners in this race and we could see an electric fast pace set on the 1st-circuit: so slower horses may get left a long way behind.

In number order:-

1) This year. the top-weight is OR161 rated Minella Times, who won the race last year but he was only carrying 10st 3lb then and has 11st 10lb this year.  To be fair - he's not in the same form having pulled-up LTO, and I will be surprised if he finishes in the 1st-4. 

2) Delta Work looked as good as ever LTO winning the Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham, and this multiple Grade 1 winner certainly has the stamina to win a National - my worry is that he's spent 2 years in the doldrums since winning the Irish Gold Cup in Feb2020, and maybe that win LTO was overrated.  

3) School Boy Hours managed to get in yesterday and could well run a big race. He looked destined for better days when a novice, but his form was indifferent until winning a top handicap chase on 27Dec.  He was pulled-up at Cheltenham after an error put him out of the race, and he's the sort who could surprise. 

4) On 11st 8lb is another McManus horse in Any Second Now who was 3rd in this race last year with 10st 9lb (OR152). He ran a cracker LTO at Fairyhouse beating Escaria Ten and looks primed for a big run. Remember, he was badly hampered mid-race last year, so looks very interesting if finding a clear run.

5) Run Wild Fred is a plodder: pure and simple, but he could finish in the 1st-5.   

6) The 10yo Lostintranslation isn't the horse he was when 3rd in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup, and I will be surprised if he finishes the race.

7) The 11yo Brahma Bull hasn't run a race worthy of his lofty OR154 rating in years. 

8) Last year, Burrows Saint was well-fancied and held every chance 3-out but faded; he's carrying 6lb more this year with 11st 5lb (OR156) and he may struggle to win again.

9) Regular readers of the blog will remember that I noted Mount Ida as a potential Ladbroke Trophy winner after she won the "Kim Muir"; but it was the horse in 2nd Cloudy Glen who went on to win it! She goes best right-handed and may not be suited to the course.

10) Trainer Martin Brassil won the 2006 Grand National with Numbersixvalverde, and Longhouse Poet is taking a similar route having won the Thyestes Chase over 3m1f on 27Jan. That was a top handicap win, but he runs off a 10lb higher mark in this (OR155) and that may prove too much.

11) A horse who looks weighted to win this is Fiddlerontheroof: not beaten far by top novice Monkfish in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in 2021, he only just failed to win the Ladbroke Trophy in November and I think he was beaten by the soft ground LTO at Ascot.  This prominent runner looks just the type.

12) Two For Gold has run 7 times at trips beyond 2m7f and won 3 times, but he's nearly always run in races with under 10 runners - this may be too much for him.

13) Santini was a top-class staying chaser two-years ago but lost his way. If Polly Gundry has rekindled his enthusiasm then he could run a cracker, as I was impressed by his run at Cheltenham in January - odds of 50/1 could be huge. 

14) Samcro is an odd sort who only runs to his best when he wants to, and is an unreliable type.

15) Escaria Ten was beaten "on-the-nod" LTO by Any Second Now, but that was a great prep for him as he looks a horse who wants a marathon.  He was only 3-lengths behind Galvin in the NH Chase over 3m6f in Mar2021 (with Snow Leopardess a well beaten 4th) and, off OR152 with 11st 1lb, he must go close.

16) While Good Boy Bobby has improved this season, but seems best suited by soft ground.

17) Romain De Senam is a late entry and I cannot see him getting close. 

18) Coko Beach at 7yo is too young, and he's also inconsistent.   

19) It is a big ask to think De Rasher Counter who won the Ladbroke Trophy in Nov2019 can win this having run just twice in the last 2 years with his run in February his first in 16 months. 

20) If Kildisart has come back from injury as good as he once was, then he could be capable of a bold show - but they never come back as good as they once were.

21) Last year, Discorama ran in this off a break of nearly 5-months and was in with a chance 2-out before fading quickly.  He's had a prep-run this time over 3-mile on 9th Feb, just failing behind Full Time Score who is fancied to go well in the Irish National; so I reckon Discorama will run a big race.

22) Top Ville Ben is unreliable, and also performs best in the mud.

23) Enjoy D'Allen does stay well, but finds races hard to win, so he could well run into a place. 

24) Anibale Fly at 12yo is surely past his best in what looks a competitive race. 

25) Dingo Dollar is a horse who is a serial under-performer, and it would take a career-best for him to win this.

26) Freewheelin Dylan has his fans, but I'm not one - he was a fortunate winner of the Irish National at odds of 150/1 and lightening does not strike twice.

27) Class Conti hasn't won in 3 years and his best form is on soft/heavy ground.

28) Noble Yeats is ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen and is sure of a bold run, but this novice chaser looks to be on a tough handicap mark at OR147. 

29) Mighty Thunder won last years Scottish National and was 2nd in the Midlands National - a repeat of that form would see him go close, but this season he's not looked the same horse and has had a recent wind operation. 

30) Cloth Cap was favourite last year, but I thought he wasn't up to this race and he wasn't. He's not looked the same horse since and is an unlikely winner.

31) Snow Leopardess is one of this years market leaders having won the Becher Chase here in December over the National fences. I think she will go well for a long way, but her handicap mark of OR146 looks tough, and when not racing on soft ground she's looked slow. 

32) Agusta Gold has run well in races beyond 3-mile but finds winning difficult.

33) Commodore is another late qualifier and again I like this one: always runs best when fresh and he's been aimed at this since winning at Cheltenham almost making-all in December. The sort who will run a great race from the front.

34) Deise Aba loves Sandown and soft/heavy ground and I just think this race isn't for him.

35) Blaklion has always run a big race over these fences, and at 13yo it's likely he will enjoy himself again, but he can't win - can he?

36) Poker Party is one of these horses that should never have been entered, his claim to fame is winning the Kerry National beating Ravenhill who went on to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham - but that win was in Sept2019.

37) Before the recent Cheltenham Festival, trainer Gordon Elliott said Death Duty was the best handicapped chaser in his stable - I didn't think so and his subsequent run at Cheltenham was poor. His recent win over 3m4f on heavy suggests he wants a slog in the mud.

38) Domaine De L'Isle struggled recently in the Eider Chase over 4m1f so a big turnaround in form is required - and that's unlikely.

39) Eclair Surf is another late entry and he has to be in with a chance: the form of his win in the Warwick Classic over 3m5f was excellent (Corach Rambler in 4th and Gericault Roque in 2nd finished 1st & 2nd in the Ultima Chase at the Festival); and then pushing subsequent Scottish National winner Win My Wings in the 4m1f Eider Chase LTO was a stonking effort. Even on OR143, he could be 7lb well-in here.

40) Fortescue ran a cracker to win LTO at Ascot, beating Fiddlerontheroof - but that win was on soft ground.  When the pair met on good-to-soft in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November, Fortescue was well beaten. He may struggle to keep up the pace. 

My shortlist is 

Fiddlerontheroof - this is my main hope to win

Eclair Surf - should be in the 1st-5

Escaria Ten - should be in the 1st-5

Any Second Now - may need a bit of luck as he's carrying a lot more weight than last year

Discorama - could run a big race at a huge price

Aintree - Friday 8th April

Yesterday was not the best of days - not a sniff of a winner, or even a place (both advised selections were eachway wagers).  A bad jumping error put paid to the chances of Pic D'Orhy, but he wasn't running well and possibly wants to go right-handed.  He beat Millers Bank LTO and that one looked to have a bundle in-hand when winning this race. 

Then Brazil was clearly over-the-top as he was unable to cope with the leading pair, Pied Piper and Knight Salute. The Irish-trained Pied Piper has looked a decent juvenile hurdler since his debut on 31Dec; but he met his match in Knight Salute! The Milton Harris trained gelding has now won 6 of his 7 hurdle races and gone from strength to strength. He has pricked a few bubbles this season and this was a well deserved Grade 1 win.

The Betway Bowl again went to a horse who bypassed the Cheltenham Festival, and all those that ran at the Festival ran poorly in this race. Clan Des Obeaux is a good yardstick, but this wasn't his best performance by a long way - and it didn't need to be. 

Epatante ran possibly a career-best in the Aintree Hurdle, and possible opens up a new avenue for her next season as she's not up to beating Honeysuckle over 2-miles - or stable companion at Seven Barrows, Constitution Hill. 

Onto Friday's racing at Aintree, and I do like the look of FIRST STREET in the Novices' Hurdle at 2:20pm.  He was most unlucky to bump into the exceptionally well-handicapped State Man in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and 4th in that race - West Cork - has since upheld the form. That trainer Nicky Henderson has sent him for this race, along with his top-novice Jonbon, is very interesting.  On my ratings, I think First Street is at least 5lb better than Jonbon.  The Irish challenger El Fabiolo is clearly well thought of, but he's only run in one hurdle race (which he won), and this will be a big ask to win this - unless he is very talented indeed. Odds of 4/1 (generally available) look very attractive to me.

The Grade 2 Mildmay novices' chase over 3m1f looks a cracker, even with just 4 runners. On my ratings, I reckon Bravemansgame is the best of these; but at the odds available it is a no bet race for me.

There looks to be better value in the Grade 1 Marsh Chase, as although I really like Fakir D'oudairies and was very disappointed that he didn't run in the Ryanair Chase (he wouldn't have beaten Allaho, but he would certainly have come 2nd or 3rd at very attractive odds), odds of 11/8 for this competive race are just bonkers. I don't think Funambula Sivola is good enough to win this race - and if he isn't then Hitman isn't, as he beat him easily at level-weights LTO.  Saint Calvados has had his day in the sun, and while this trip will suit him well, he'd need a career-best effort to win. The two that represent vale are Mister Fisher and Allmankind. Mister Fisher is a very good horse on his day, but one who quickly throws-in the towel when it isn't; and he also goes best on soft ground. Allmankind won the "Old Roan" Grade 2 Chase over C&D last October on good ground.  He has won well on sift going, but he's best on good. He's also been aimed at this race since winning here in October, and trainer Dan Skelton is no mug. Odds of 12/1 look massive given that ALLMANKIND is 2nd highest rated in the race, just a pound behind the fav Fakir D'oudairies, on OR163. 

My selections for Friday are:-

Aintree 2:20pm - FIRST STREET - £5 win @ 4/1 (generally available)

Aintree 3:30pm - ALLMANKIND - £5 eachway & £5 win @ 12/1 (5th odds, places 1,2,3 generally available)

We now have the 40 declared runners for the Grand National on Saturday, and all 5 of the horses on my shortlist - see the blog from Tuesday - are in the race: Any Second Now; Escaria Ten; Fiddlerontheroof; Discorama and Eclair Surf.  Of those on the shortlist, I think FIDDLERONTHEROOF holds the best chance and 16/1 with 6-places eachway now available looks good value. I also think Discorama is great value at 40/1 considering he comes into this race better prepared than last season when he ran very well.

Aintree - Thursday 7th April

An attractive card at Aintree on the opening day of the Grand National meeting - the 1st four races are Grade 1. The opening 2m4f novice chase looks intriguing as 6 go to post, and they all look capable of significant improvement. 

The obvious choice is the Paul Nicholls trained Pic D'Orhy, who won LTO over 2m4f at Kempton beating one of today's rivals Millers Bank.  His only disadvantage is the he has mainly run right-handed, and this tight left-handed track could be his undoing. Millers Bank ran well at this meeting as a novice hurdler and he looked much-improved as a chaser LTO and he might yet go even better in this, but he has a fair bit to make up.  It's tricky to know how goo Erne River is after a couple of runaway wins, but he looks a bit short in the market to me at 100/30.   War Lord is more interesting as he beat some well-fancied horses when 4th in the Arkle; this trip will suit him better than 2-mile.  For me, it's PIC D'ORHY but it's a tricky race and there's not much between them.

The 2m1f 4yo hurdle at 2:20pm looks a cracker of a race.  Cheltenham winner Brazil is a full-brother to St Leger and Irish Derby winner Capri, so it's no wonder he'd not been gelded!  Ordinary on the flat, he's improved rapidly since Christmas and that improvement may not have stopped yet. As such, I think he will prove too strong for Pied Piper who had his limitations exposed in the Triumph Hurdle.  On ratings there's not much between them, but the potential for further improvement lies with BRAZIL.  The only other likely contender is Petit Tonnerre, but he looks like he wants another half-mile and needs to find about 20lb of improvement.   

The Grade 1 Betway Bowl Chase over 3m1f is one the highlights of the meeting; and a top-class field is lined-up including last years winner Clan Des Obeaux.  It was one of his best-ever performances last year, but he's not looked the same since in a couple of runs this season, and it's a big ask for the 10yo to return to that sort of form again. The old-boy Bristol De Mai hasn't looked up to winning a race like this for some time.  The most obvious winner is the Dan Skelton trained Protektorat, who ran a great race to be 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month - however, he was a long way behind the winner. Alongside him at the finish in the Gold Cup was Royale Pagaille and, to be fair, I think he could prove the better of this pair as he is capable of slightly better form.  However, they could both be beaten by Eldorado Allen who won the Denman Chase at Newbury in February beating both Royale Pagaille and Clan Des Obeaux in the process. He then ran in the Ryanair Chase and had no chance trying to match Allaho over 2m4f, and this trip could be perfect for him.  The 8yo Conflated won a slowly-run Grade 1 Chase in February, and he will be staying-on late, but he could find the pace of this race too string.  I can't see Kemboy repeating his win of 2019 in this race. Looking at the betting market, the odds of 13/2 about ELDORADO ALLEN (William Hill) are the best value in my opinion.  

The 4th Grade 1 of the day is the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f.  Both the market leaders, Epatante and Zanahiyr are trying this trip for the first time, and it's debatable whether the trip will bring out improvement.  So, I'm going against this pair and having a small wager on BREWIN'UPASTORM who will be in 1st-time cheekpieces.  He ran a poor race in this event last year, but he was much better when a good C&D winner last November, and a repeat of that performance will see him win this.  Odds of 13/2 (Paddy Power) look massive. 

I will give the last 3 races on the card a miss. 

Looking to the Grand National, it looks like there are 3 confirmed non-runners: Anibale Fly, Agusta Gold and Court Maid although we won't know for sure until the final declarations are made tomorrow. 

My wagers are:-

2:55pm ELDORADO ALLEN - £5 eachway @ 13/2 (William Hill) 

3:30pm BREWINUPASTORM - £5 eachway @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)

plus 

£5 eachway double at odds of 6/1 & 13/2 with Paddy Power