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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday, 7 October 2010

Owen Glendower to delight Henderson?

In today’s blog:-
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s Horseracing

Review of yesterday’s horseracing

Yesterday at Ludlow, the fav for the 3-mile chase TRITONVILLE LODGE was pulled-up lame, which was most unfortunate. Let’s hope that the horse recovers well. The each-way selection in that race, WHATABOUTYA, looked like being involved in the finish about a mile-out, but was beaten before the 2nd-last. Despite having winning form over 3-miles in Ireland (3 wins & 2 x 2nds from 11 runs at 23f+) this horse looks a doubtful stayer in class 3 chases here in England and either needs a significant drop in the handicap, or a drop in trip to 2m 6f or a bit shorter. The winner, KING ROONAH paid a big compliment to Swincombe Rock who beat him at Perth in September. Being just a 6yo, KING ROONAH is a horse with a future, especially as he carried 11:7 to victory in this chase.

At Towcester, Michael Flips was beaten in his debut chase, so it was right to avoid a wager at odds of 10/11. The winner of the race was trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies who’s run of good from continues. He sent 3 horses to Towcester, and was rewarded with 2 winners (at 13/2 and 5/2) and a 2nd at 10/1. My each-way selection ART DECO, never got into the race at all despite being the subject of a gamble from 10/1 into an SP of 9/2. There is clearly ability there and (hopefully) it will emerge soon.

Today’s Horseracing
There are two jumps meetings, at Exeter and Worcester, along with a flat meeting at Newbury.
Nigel Twiston-Davies sends just Ammunition to Exeter for the 3:35, a class 4 chase over 3-mile, and his son Sam (3lb claimer) has the ride.
At this time of the season in handicap chases, I am a supporter of the “youngest” 2nd-season chaser in any handicap race. The basic premise being that horse’s generally always have the ability they were born with, and only get slower with age. Younger horses gain experience at jumping and “pace” themselves better and, not so much improve as, “get things right”. As such, there is more likelihood that they are well-handicapped as their ability (should they have it) has not yet been shown. The youngest horses in the race are the three 7yo’s; Vamizi, Justabout, and Prophete De Guye. Vamizi got it right just once last season when winning over C&D, and a repeat of that would see him go well here. But, he’s been off 175 days and may need this run. Prophete De Guye is well-exposed as a chaser despite being a 7yo and I’ll pass him over. That leave’s JUSTABOUT who comes here off a good run just 47-days ago. He will easily stay this 3-mile trip, has won 2 of his last 4 starts, and has the best speed rating. He carried 11:12 LTO (carries just 10:6 today) and has won carrying 11:9, so he will be (hopefully) skipping along in this. The going should not be a problem, but his odds are for me; he’s just 9/2 at best, so I cannot advise a wager at those odds as I was hoping for 8/1 at least.

At Worcester, Twiston-Davies sends two runners. But I’m more interested in the 2-mile novice hurdle which was won by Get Me Out Of Here last season. Nicky Henderson sends his only runner today for this OWEN GLENDOWER and, tho’ he’ll be a red-hot fav with Barry Geraghty riding, this race is worth making a note of.
The mare’s hurdles at 4:20 over 2m4f looks a good contest. I have a bit of a soft-spot for DOT’S DELIGHT who is a consistent hurdler who appreciates a bit of “give” in the ground and stays 2m4f. Throw-in decent 3lb claimer Peter (o) Toole, and at 8/1 we should get a good run for our money if going each-way.

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3 comments:

  1. Nigel Twiston-Davies first runner of the day TULLYRAINE wins @ 16/1. When the man is in form, follow him!

    ReplyDelete
  2. OWEN GLENDOWER wins in a canter @ 7/4.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AMMUNITION makes is 2 from 2 for Twiston-Davies winning @ 4/1. Vamizi 2nd and Prophet De Guye 3rd.

    ReplyDelete