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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Take the odds on Archie's Wish
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
No firm selection yesterday, but the narrative pointed you in the direction of a winning wagers on SWINCOMBE ROCK who won in a canter @ 4/11; and also a “lay” wager on the fav for the 3m3f h’cap hurdle THAI VANGO who, as expected, did not stay the trip and was a well beaten 100/30 favourite. I also suggested INGHWUNG was an eachway wager and she duly came 2nd, but I said that you should look for odds of 11/2 or more, and her SP was only 4/1.
There are jump meetings today at Uttoxeter and Wetherby.
There is not much to write home about at Huntingdon. The only horse that takes my eye is in the 2-mile handicap at 4:55 and that is the fav KILKENNY ALL STAR. But he is likely to be chased along for the lead in the early stages by Colliers Court and he may not enjoy that. As such, his current odds of just 7/4 don’t look much value even tho’ he is clearly the best of these on the weights and if he is fit enough to do himself justice. I would be looking for 5/2 at least, but you are unlikely to get those odds before the off.
At Wetherby, the racing is better.
Pistol Basc was 2nd in the 2m6f chase last year, and his run LTO after a summer break did not suggest there should be confidence today to go one better. There has been a market move for Tim Vaughan’s horse Sean Og, but it must be based on stable confidence as for the life of me, he’s shown nothing on the track. I don’t go along with rumour, I am a formbook man thru’ & thru’. So my idea of the winner (even before I looked at the betting) was the promising 6yo ARCHIE’S WISH. His trainer, Micky Hammond, has a good record here with chasers and so long as he has a clear round he looks capable of a good show. He was 3/1 in the RP betting-forecast this morning, and so the gamble on Sean Og has pushed out his odds to 13/2 which should be taken.
LATE NEWS: SEAN OG is a non-runner!
The Bobby Renton Class 3 chase over an extended 20f is a good race on the calendar at this stage of the season. Alan King’s NIKOS EXTRA let me down a lot last season despite having a number of winning opportunities and so remains on a decent mark, but he is as one-paced as they come! So, I reckon he should be opposed and FIT TO DRIVE won her opening couple of races last autumn and this trip is right up her street as is the going. She was highly tried last winter, and lost nothing in defeat but has now slipped back to her last winning mark of OR125. Currently at 11/2, that’s fair but I’d prefer a bit more and if you can get 6/1 or more than take a punt. War Party in the same race looked like winning his debut chase LTO till running out of puff – he’s on a light weight with his claimer taking 7lb off and he is the sort who could spring a surprise.
Wetherby 2:50 ARCHIE’S WISH, 1pt win @ 11/2
Wetherby 3:55 FIT TO DRIVE, ½pt each-way @ 6/1 (if you can get it, currently 11/2)
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