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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 5 October 2010

Tiger Woods Top US Scorer @ 11/2

In today’s blog:-
More Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe analysis
Today’s Racing Selection
The Ryder Cup

More Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe analysis
Yesterday, after reading that SARAFINA (3rd in the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe) was considered a very unlucky loser, I reviewed the race many times (especially the final 3f) in some detail.
What I did not expand on in yesterday’s blog was why SARAFINA came from such a long way back to be 3rd. She was very badly hampered by the retreating Midas Touch about 3f out (it’s hard to say exactly where as there is little if anything in the way of furlong poles at Longchamp), and lost a handy position in about 8th (about 2–lengths in front of eventual winner Workforce) to end-up about 3-lengths behind that horse. Jockey Mosse then, in an effort to recover, took his mount quickly to the outside and went for broke. Partly due to her terrific turn-of-foot, and partly due to having an unimpeded run down the outside; SARAFINA finished like a train – or that’s how it seemed. I believe that the horse (along with the winner Workforce, runner-up Nakayama Festa, and the 4th Behkabad) was staying-on passing beaten horses. Nearly all the 1st-7 or 8 home had “issues” about interference (only the Nakayama Festa escaped any serious interference), so to take SERAFINA’s situation in isolation is a bit unfair. Even so, she is a very capable filly and – as I said yesterday – you have to wonder just how good the mare MIDDAY is who beat her in the Prix Vermeille?

I am always researching for subjects and angles, not just for the blog, but to improve my appreciation of form, and I came across an article written by Nick Mordin (published in the Weekender on 8th September) in which he explains that following 3yo’s (on the flat) who have achieved an RPR118+ rating without showing similar for before can prove profitable as “generally” the average punter does not believe the formline. He named the following qualifiers; Workforce, Sarafina, and Behkabad amongst a few others. I have growing admiration for Nick Mordin and his methods. He sometimes comes out with a few “no-balls”, but he has an uncanny ability to throw the odd “googly”. You have to swim against the tide; rail against the herd; if you are to profit from having a wager on the horses.

Today’s Racing Selection
I did say on Sunday that, with the running of the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe, my attention was now fully on the jumps racing scene. It is but, in the absence of any jumps racing, I have to advise you of a recent winning selection of mine MUSIC OF THE MOOR, running again at Leicester in the 3:40. My comments after winning LTO were: “As expected, the step-up in trip to 12f really suited, but I think it was the soft going that really made the difference as the horse cruised through it. MUSIC OF THE MOOR looked set to run away with the race 2f-out but his run up the rail was halted after which he had to switch into the centre of the track but, still under a hands’n’heels ride, he took command of the race and ran out a comfortable winner”. The early odds of 11/2 look very fair with the prospect of heavy going, over a trip of 12f and with MUSIC OF THE MOOR only raised 5lb for his comfortable win with plenty in hand LTO. Take each-way.
Thankfully, there are a couple of jumps meetings on Wednesday.

Last, but not least, what about the Ryder Cup!
In my blog of 30th September, I wrote that I thought that the US team had greater strength in depth, “but having better players is no guarantee of success in a team game”. I believe that was proved in yesterday’s singles when the US team nearly pulled-of a magnificent comeback in winning 6 of the 12 singles, halving 2 others, and so losing just 4.
In that same blog, I wrote that I thought one player would find the arena inspirational, as he had a point to prove – and I was right in naming that golfer as Tiger Woods. Yesterday, he won his singles match 4 & 3 which, when you consider he was 2-down after 5 holes, was remarkable (see yesterday’s blog). Woods won 6 of the next 8 holes to be 4-up after the 13th hole. Woods was 9 under-par after playing just 15 holes of that singles match. He ended-up joint top US points scorer on 3pts with Steve Stricker (who happened to be his playing partner on the four-balls and foursomes). My suggestion of having 2pts @ 11/2 about Woods being top US scorer was right on the button (half-odds as joint winner with Stricker) providing a 5.50pt profit.
Tiger Woods looked phenomenal yesterday, and he is one to be on the right side of wherever he plays next.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

2 comments:

  1. God knows what Andrew Mullen was doing on MUSIC OF THE MOOR. There were 2 non-runners, including the morning fav, so I lumped-on at 9/2. All was going well until about 3-furlongs out when the leaders went for home - but Mullen sat tight on MUSIC OF THE MOOR. It was not until the leaders where inside the 2-furlong pole - and about 8 lengths in front of MOTM - that Mullen woke up to the job in hand! He made up a bit of ground, but what was the point? That was a race he should have won.

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  2. Not the greatest of rides was it Iain. Never mind mate, nice result with Tiger!

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