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Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 27 October 2010

Rockiteer comes close

In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Review of today’s horseracing

Yesterday’s horseracing
Just the one race was looked at yesterday and we very nearly had a tremendous winner in ROCKITEER that was put up as a worthy eachway wager at the odds of 11/1. He jumped the last fence in front, having been travelling very well thru’out the race, but was caught on the run-in by the strong finish of Emma Lavelle’s Qianshan Leader. In my opinion, all the 1st-3 home in this race can go on from this as the race looked a fair one for the grade.

Review of today’s horseracing
There is a good jump meeting at Haydock, and another decent jump meeting at Punchestown in Ireland. In the 20f chase at 2:50, the form of MASTER SOMERVILLE when 2nd to Edgbriar is now looking very good as that horse has been re-rated to OR145 following his win at Cheltenham the other day. That suggests that MASTER SOMERVILLE could be a good deal better than OR115 and he also goes best when fresh. There are heavy showers forecast for today and any softening of the ground will benefit him. He will likely be up with the pace thru’out. He’s now 8/1 (PaddyPower & Stan James) and that is the value.
The class 3 hurdle at 3:25 looks a competitive race for the money. The 7yo, SOFTSPOKENGUY has run well in 2 races at Haydock, despite being hampered both times. He’ll get the trip, runs prominent so won’t be far away from the leaders, and comes here race-fit. Those ahead of him in the betting; that is Mostly Bob, Barwell Bridge and Pipe Banner; all look like having questions to ask or improvement to find. So, at odds of 9/1 (Ladbrokes) he looks eachway value.
The class 3 chase at 4:00 is similarly filled with horses looking to have something to prove. I am drawn to GARLETON (who, like SOFTSPOKENGUY, is trained by M A Barnes). He has dropped from OR114 to his last winning mark of OR106, and he won his opening 2 races last season. He returned with a decent effort 19-days ago, so will be fit for that. The problem is his jockey, who is a 7lb claimer with only 3 chase wins. As such, for me current odds of 8/1 do not look value, and so this is a no bet race.

At Punchestown, in the 3:20 novice chase NOBLE PRINCE makes his chase debut. I was on the brink of including this horse in my Chasers & Hurdlers alert list, as he is such a consistently game performer. He could be the sort that leaves his hurdle form way behind when going chasing, and if he does he will go right to the top! Today’s odds leave no room for error tho’, so this is a race to watch and learn from.

Selections:
Haydock 2:50 MASTER SOMERVILLE, 1pt eachway @ 8/1
(best odds guaranteed with Stan James)
Haydock 2:50 MASTER SOMERVILLE @ 8/1 and
Haydock3:25 SOFTSPOKENGUY @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed),
½pt eachway double

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

3 comments:

  1. Let's hope we are both right.

    ReplyDelete
  2. We weren't!
    Must admit I thought MASTER SOMERVILLE would be right there at the finish but he faded very quickly once headed. There was the option to trade-out at <6.00 which would have recovered your stake - but really, I have found that trading-out mid-race just eats into your profits as invariably you trade-out on eventual winners (or I always seem to!).
    Lesson to take from the race is that the 2 youngest horses in the race came 2nd and 3rd, and the winner DEUTEROMONY is probably best caught fresh as he is as one-paced as they come.

    ReplyDelete
  3. SOFTSPOKENGUY comes in 4th - he does not seem to have any tactical speed.
    The best news came from Ireland, where NOBLE PRINCE won his debut chase. He will be special.

    No blog tomorrow (taking the lad to London for the day), but will be back on Friday.

    ReplyDelete