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Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Saturday, 16 October 2010
TWICE OVER to make it twice over!
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
Not a bad result yesterday!
Probably due to the going being quicker than expected, the odds on OUZBECK lengthened to 12/1 (which is not usually a problem if you took the earlier offer of 9/1 as most bookies now go “best odds guaranteed”). He was a little outpaced in mid-race, but he stayed on stoutly passing beaten horses to be 3rd. And overall, I read the race well. There were few proven at the 3-mile trip in the race and the only two that were without trip doubts came 2nd and 3rd, with LACDOUDAL (“he’s almost a place banker”) coming home 2nd @ 8/1. I admit I didn’t call the winner in Midnight Chase, but I gave him a good plug in the narrative.
The winner MIDNIGHT CHASE is an improving horse and should be followed over 3-mile NTO. Similarly, OUZBECK made tremendous strides in the last half-mile under a hand’n’heels ride considering he was probably 20-lengths adrift at one point. Over a trip in excess of 3-mile he’ll be thereabouts. And don’t forget DOUBLE DIZZY. This horse always needs his opening race of the season and this was a promising run till he ran out of steam.
A final word for jockey Dougie Costello: his talent is being discovered!
Trainers JJ Quinn, Neil Mulholland and TD Easterby give him most winners, but Jonjo O’Neill also used him last season.
Final word for horse alert runner MONT PRESENT, he did not stay this 3-mile trip (as expected) but this run will prep-him for his next run.
The second day of the October jump meeting at Cheltenham, together with another jump meeting at Kelso and the Champion Day meeting at Newmarket.
In the G1 Champions Stakes, I was on TWICE OVER last year and the horse loves this race as it fits it to a “T”. The horse has shown he’s improved this season (again) and at 9/2, he is the value punt in this as he has the going in his favour – unlike some of the others. In the Dewhurst, there have been stories galore going around about the brilliance of Frankel, and if he wins it he’ll be hailed as the champion elect. But, he steps down from a mile to 7f for this and I am always wary of horses dropping in trip, especially 2yo’s when they’ve done nothing to show a drop in trip will benefit them. For me it’s a watching race, but do not ignore the Saeed bin Suroor horse SAAMIDD.
There are no horses from the Alert List running today. In the 2:40 at Cheltenham, Free World (Ire) is an 8yo and not the Free World (Fr) on the alert list who is a 6yo with Paul Nicholls. That race, a h’cap chase (class 2) over 20f & 100yds is a cracker – very competitive. You’ll have to have some faith in me here, but I reckon that POCKET ACES is a handicap snip off OR133. I noted him running well last autumn, and then he was thrown in the deep end against Long Run at Kempton on Boxing Day and he hated the soft ground on his last run. He’s 25/1 and with 18 runners paying 4-places, he’s worth a small wager in a tight field.
In the 3:50, the novice chase, I was on Picture This for his last run but he’s up against it here on his chase debut and he will be severely tested. I’m not sure which will win, but as the 7/4 fav, PICTURE THIS is a “lay” and is the day’s Bismark!
At Kelso, the good-to-firm going will be a new experience for many of these today, and the horses that cope best will be the ones that win the races. Given that most racing here will be trying ground this quick for the first time, Kelso is a meeting to avoid unless you know your selection will cope with the ground.
Cheltenham 2:40 POCKET ACES, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (¼ odds available generally)
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