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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 29 October 2010
THE TOTHER ONE to prove too strong
Review of today’s horseracing
There was a bit of a market move for PACCO, but it came to nothing; the horse was never in the race. The feature race at Wetherby was won by Neptune Equester and he did it really well, running on strong after the 2nd last and coming home a clear winner. Given that he only ran for the first time in January, that he stays 3-mile plus, and he’s won 3 of his last 4 chases; NEPTUNE EQUESTER is one for the notebook. The blog selection SOULARD, ran in snatches. He looked capable of being involved in the finish 4-out but wasn’t fit enough to stay-on. He’ll go better next time out.
There are jump meetings at Ascot and Wetherby on Saturday.
There is some cracking racing at Wetherby and the 3m1f hurdle looks a good betting medium. It’s out on a limb, but BLAZING BAILEY has the best hurdles form in this field and it is not detrimental that he spent last season novice chasing without achieving comparative success as several in this field have undergone a similar reversal back to hurdles. Odds of 10/1 look eachway value to me as there are 3-places.
In the Charlie Hall, The Tother One ran some great races last season without winning and as such you should ignore his OR155 as he should be OR160+. This trip is right up his street, but may prefer some give. As such, if it turns softer then lump on (double stakes). Everything is in place for Deep Purple to repeat last year’s win, and as he has won 7 of his 10 starts before 31st Dec this is the time to support him. But, the 10lb he gives to THE TOTHER ONE may prove too much and 4/1 looks fair value.
At Ascot, there is a 3-mile listed chase with a good field of 13 runners. Most could have a chance on form and it may not be a race to be heavily involved in. But, Vic Dartnall sends his only runner of the day for this in EXMOOR RANGER, and he very rarely visits Ascot. EXMOOR RANGER never ran a bad race last season and was only just beaten at Sandown by Monkerhostin. If he starts in similar form he will be hard to beat. Early indications are his odds will be generous, Paddy Power go 12/1.
The listed handicap hurdle over 2-mile at 4:15 needs to be won by top-weight GET ME OUT OF HERE if he is to be truly a Champion Hurdle candidate. I sincerely hope the horse does well, but I fear that he will not prove good enough to win a Champion Hurdle and as such, he may be exposed tomorrow.
I’m posting this blog on Friday evening as I’m travelling on Saturday to Cornwall returning my 8yo son to his mother. A long journey (650 miles in total, and 13 hours driving) and not one I look forward to. But we’ve had a good week and hopefully my investment in him will pay dividends in the long run, as he is the one who benefits from my involvement in his life.
So, for Saturday:-
Wetherby 2:50 BLAZING BAILEY, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Vic Chandler)
Wetherby 3:25 THE TOTHER ONE, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) – double stake if turning soft
Ascot 3:40 EXMOOR RANGER, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Total = 3pts staked
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