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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 8 October 2010
Twiston-Davies in tip-top form
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
Review of yesterday’s horseracing
I did tell you Nigel Twiston-Davies had his stable in top form, and I did tell you where his 3 horses where running – and 2 won @ 16/1 and 4/1, with the other horse 3rd beaten just half-a-length @ 3/1. So, for the 2nd day in succession, a tremendous winning opportunity for multiple-bet punters.
Nicky Henderson’s OWEN GLENDOWER romped home @ 7/4 which was, in my opinion, very generous odds. The two other horses mentioned in the blog both ran unplaced, tho’ JUSTABOUT was looking likely to be placed until a bad mistake 2-out, and should be given another chance, maybe over less than 3-mile as he looked exhausted. Also at Exeter, DOVERS HILL put up a much improved display of jumping to win easily. This horse twice fell at the last fence last season (with races at his mercy), and he could turn-out to be an OR140+ chaser this season. And I remember Jim Best was very diplomatic when I AM BLUE beat his horse NORTHERN LAD last-time-out, but he recouped the loss yesterday winning in a canter, his jockey merely had to keep him going under a hands’n’heels ride.
On the flat at Newbury, one for the notebook for next season was VANGUARD DREAM who remained unbeaten when taking his 3rd start winning from the front, and running-on in a game and resolute manner. He looks up to being “listed” class next season and should get a mile plus.
Just the single jumps meetings at Carlisle today, and I remember at last year’s meeting I did particularly well following the runners of trainer J Howard Johnson. He sends 5 there today, including a winner at this meeting Alvarado for the novice chase.
The opening novice hurdles look wide open, so I’ll give them a miss.
I should do the same with the novice chase as most are jumping a fence in public for the first time, Trainers J Howard Johnson, Jonjo O’Neill and Nicky Richards have the best records at Carlisle (and Twiston-Davies also has a runner in this), and one I noted from the Festival as running well was BORN AGAIN who will handle the going and stay todays 20f trip. However, the same can be said for all the market leaders, so this is a race to watch rather than get involved in.
The 2-mile handicap chase usually goes to a market-leader (only 1 winner at odds greater than 7/1 in past 10 runnings) and for me ET MAINTENANT fits the bill and odds of 4/1 look fair. I would not be surprised to see a bold run from CAVERS GLEN in this as he won his last race at Carlisle and tho’ off the track for 705 days, he is still just an 8yo and looks on a handy mark. At 16/1 he’s worth a eachway nibble (especially if you can get 20’s plus).
Overquest is the 13/8 fav for the 3-mile handicap chase but, at those odds, he is worth opposing. There are several young horses in this race with the potential to win, such as Foxesbow and Blazing Diva, and also Western Gale if he can find his “Irish” form. So, I would “lay” Overquest in this.
No selection today for the blog, but I would expect a bold run from ET MAINTENANT and I do not think Overquest is a 13/8 chance and is more likely to get beat.
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