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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 9 June 2011
Be quick to take odds on FOUR NATIONS
Pretty damn close there with KARAKA JACK last night, but the rain softened-going did for his chances. Had I known the going would turn good-to-soft then I would not have put the horse up as a selection, but there-you-go. He’s entered for another 6f race at York on Saturday, but the horse is crying-out for another go at 7f – a trip he’s won at twice from 5 starts. He stays in my Notebook, but he’ll only be a wager if he’s attempting longer than 6-furlongs now. I thought FRONTLINE PHANTOM was going to serve-it-up to eventual winner Udabaa in the opener at Haydock, but no – he was outclassed.
If you read my comment on y’days blog, the “long-distance-travellers” did well with wins for Wild Coco (for Henry Cecil at Haydock); Power Punch (for Barry Hills at Beverley); and Collect Art (for Andrew Haynes at Yarmouth). Perhaps I should have stuck with them all along.
The other Notebook runner, KITTY WELLS ran a stinker. Jockey, Kieren Fallon said she did not enjoy the slow early pace and, while I won’t dispute that, my opinion is that the rain-softened ground was a major factor as her family have not shown a propensity to handle “give” in the ground. Even so, this was an appalling effort and she’s on a watching brief for now.
Plenty of racing again, so what are the interesting LDT’s (long distance travellers).
There’s nothing at Yarmouth, and the same applies for Nottingham. No trainer has to travel very far to get to Newbury. This evening, to Haydock Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just Circus Act (for the 8:50); Roger Varian sends Nahrain (7:50); and Stuart Kittow sends May Be Some Time (8:50). Kittow has had 4 wins from just 10 runners at Haydock!
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
FOUR NATIONS in the 4:50 at Newbury;
BUZZ LAW in the 7:50 at Haydock.
Believe it or not, but Sir Michael Stoute is yet to have a winner this month, so he sends 3 to Newbury who are all short in the market, but I reckon they can all be opposed and he’ll go win-less today. In fact, I reckon that today could be a day to oppose the fav’s at Newbury, in all except one race, the 4:50. When I saw FOUR NATIONS win LTO, I remarked that it was a long time since I saw a horse more confidently ridden to win a race from such an improbably position on a track such as Goodwood. I reckon this horse could seriously be OR90+ before the end of this season. The form of that race is working out well, and this step-up to 12f will suit FOUR NATIONS. He was 11/4 with some bookmakers earlier, but is only 5/2 now with those offering best odds guaranteed. I don’t reckon you’ll get longer than 11/4 and, in my opinion; he should be under 2/1 for this race.
Nothing catches my attention at either Yarmouth or Nottingham.
At Haydock, the mile handicap at 7:50 has Buzz Law from my Notebook, but he looks out of his depth in this, and the race should go to NAHRAIN, but at “evens” he is not a wagering proposition for me. It is the 8:50 that looks most interesting from a wagering point of view as the fav is Stuart Kittow’s runner May Be Some Time. He looks well-in on a 6lb penalty but he beat very little LTO and it was no wonder he won it so well. As such, I like the look of the 2nd-fav GOOD BOY JACKSON who won what has turned-out to be a good race LTO staying-on and finding more from the front. He looks capable of staying 10f, and there is little else in this race on the formbook. Odds of 11/2 look attractive, but this may be a "reverse-forecast" opportunity.
Newbury 4:50, FOUR NATIONS, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pts staked
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