Welcome to the World of Horseracing
Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Wednesday, 8 June 2011
The search for "value" continues
Not a good day for the blog yesterday, even tho’ it was a good day for me personally.
Before starting this blog in March 2010, I always thought it would be easy putting up selections on a blog and recording regular profits. But, after over 15-months at it and nearly 300 blog pages, I can see that the tipsters’ life is a tricky one. The problem I have is that I may have half-a-dozen selections at the start of the day that I want to have an interest with. However, I don’t want to put them all up as selections on the blog as, from my own experience, nothing puts me off following a tipster quicker than if you get a long list of selections in the morning and you’re expected to layout perhaps 10 or 12pts (which, in my case, is over £400) every day. That sort of “gambling” is similar to a stockbroker “churning” your account just to generate turnover. My aim (target) is to produce a 25%-plus Return On Investment (ROI), in other words if I stake £1,000 in a month, I want to end up with £1,250 in my account at the end of that month. It may sound like small beer but there are a lot of tipsters out there who do not even return a profit long term.
Yesterday, both my blog selections (NORTHERN FLING and GOLDTREK) lost, and lost badly. Not good for readers, and it’s probably not good either that I won personally with other wagers (not advised). They were on April Fool (SP 2/1), and Emilio Largo (SP 7/2) at Salisbury, and I had a “saver” on Boom And Bust (SP 4/1) in the race in which Northern Fling ran (see my comments on Boom And Bust on yesterdays blog). In the case of Emilio Largo, I put this on twitter (@wayward_lad) about 15 mins before the race, along with making the odds-on fav in the race – Moone’s My Name - my “lay-of-the-day”.
Should I have put up all 6 selections, or should I continue to try and advice those selections that I think represent the best value? It’s a tricky one, and one that I cannot answer. So, without a good reason to change my policy of providing what I consider are “value” wagers, I am going to stick with what I am doing.
NORTHERN FLING ran a stinker, and the writing was on the wall well before the off as he drifted on the exchanges to over 22.0, even tho’ he started with an SP of 14/1. There was clearly no confidence from his connections. GOLDTREK ran what looked like a very promising race and at one point about 3-furlongs out I thought he looked capable of perhaps winning and guaranteed to be placed. But, he emptied out very quickly when passed after the 2-furlong pole, and that was his chance gone.
There is plenty of racing today and on days like this I reckon it’s a good idea to take note of long-distance travellers (those making a trip of at least 150 miles from stable to the racetrack) and trainers single entries.
At Beverley, Barry Hills sends just Power Punch 197 miles for the maiden at 4:30, and he’s only sent 13 runners to the track since Jan-07. However, this looks competitive and I would not be confident. All bar a few local trainers have travelled over 150 miles to get to Hamilton in Scotland, so distance travelled is no filter there.
Haydock is more interesting, with single entries from a large number of trainers. The most interesting being Henry Cecil (Wild Coco), Saeed bin Suroor (Mahkama), Clive Cox (Dansili Dancer), and Roger Charlton (Keys).
Interestingly, quite a few trainers make a long journey to Yarmouth (despite being just up-the-road from Newmarket) including COLLECT ART who is bang in-form having won again yesterday.
There are a couple from my notebook running today:
KITTY WELLS in the 3:20 at Haydock over 1m 4f; and
KARAKA JACK in the 7:30 at Hamilton over 6f & 5 yards;
KITTY WELLS is a full-sister to St Leger winner Milan and must surely prove to be better than her OR85 rating today. There is a lot of confidence behind her and the only issue is whether she might find this trip a shade too short. Even so, odds of 7/4 represent a fair assessment of her chance today.
KARAKA JACK has a dodgy draw (2 of 12) but he could well be capable of overcoming it on this testing track. Jobe is the fav following his all-the-way win here LTO, but he’s up 8lb for that and of those behind him then, Frequency will be a lot closer is breaking better. Remember tho’ that KARAKA JACK has plenty of stamina along with his speed and he will be finishing very strongly of what is a virtual guaranteed good pace. He is 5/1 (available generally) but we may get a bit more than that. Even so, I’d say he was a 3/1 chance in this race that his trainer David Nicholls has won twice in the past 4 seasons.
Back at Haydock, I think FRONTLINE PHANTOM can upset the fav Udabaa in the opener, as the trip and going suit him best and he’s yet to stop improving. Henry Cecil’s WILD COCO looks unstoppable in the maiden at 3:50, but is already odds-on. The mile handicap at 4:20 looks tricky as the GF going won’t suit many in this. DOLPHIN ROCK is an old fav of mine from last season but I fear this going may be a bit quick for him even tho’ he love Haydock. Odds of 7/1 do not look fair for this reliable performer.
Hamilton 7:30, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Haydock 2:20, FRONTLINE PHANTOM, ½pt win @ 9/2 (William Hill & Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
KITTY WELLS is not value at 7/4; if you can get longer than 9/4 take it.
COLLECT ART at Yarmouth is 5/2, but I would want more than 3/1.
DOLPHIN ROCK is an eachway chance and, at 5th odds, I’d want longer than 9/1.
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