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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Day 2 of Royal Ascot

This is the 301st edition of the daily blog page

No winner for the blog on hitting the 300-page milestone. JARROW was a drifter in the market, touching 10/1 before starting at 8/1, probably due to his draw (3 of 15, with 2 x NR’s) forcing him to run down the unfavoured middle of the track. The race was dominated by those drawn against the rail. JARROW looked like being involved 300 yards out, but found nothing under hard driving. He has shown that when things fall right that he’s a lot better than OR77, so he’ll be given one more chance (which will probably happen when I’m away on holiday from next Tuesday).

Royal Ascot was everything we wanted it to be, drama all-the-way.
As I expected CANFORD CLIFFS won the opening race, beating Goldikova into 2nd by ¾ of a length. However, the drama was that Goldikova’s jockey weighed-in after the race with 2lb over-weight. On the formbook, that cost Goldikova the race, tho’ personally I reckon CANFORD CLIFFS had more in-hand. Even so, had punters (including me) known that Goldikova would be 2lb OW then I’m sure that the SP of CANFORD CLIFFS would have been a lot shorter than 11/8.
Prohibit (drawn 14) won the King’s Stand Stakes with a superlative turn-of-foot, having benefitted from a strong pace thru’out and being drawn in the middle of Overdose (15), Bridgetown (11) and Sweet Sanette (10). This was easily a career-best effort, perhaps 7lb better than he’s ever shown before, and as a 6yo on his 30th start too.

The was much debate over the ride Tom Queally (silly me, originally wrote Ryan Moore - apologies) gave FRANKEL when winning the St James Palace Stakes – yes, he won. I remember after FRANKEL won the 2000 Guineas that the word “brilliant” was used till it was worn out, and I read in the Weekender that connections had decided that making full-use of FRANKEL’s phenomenal pace (previously seen only on the gallops) was now the way to go with him on the track. If anyone had polled racegoers before the race what they expected to see, I’m sure 80% would have said that the expected something similar to the Guineas performance. Well, that’s what they got, FRANKEL won, and yet from the plethora of criticism levied on Tom Queally you would have thought he’d just defecated in front of the Queen by way of celebration! Sure, there was a point in the final furlong when it looked like the tactics may have been wrong, but the tactics exposed the stamina limitations of many in the field (Wootton Bassett, Dream Ahead, Dubawi Gold), demonstrated that Excelebration is nowhere near Group 1 class, and that if Zoffany drops down to 6-furlongs for the Golden Jubilee on Saturday (for which he’s 25/1) then he could be stonking value (providing he gets a decent draw).

I’m sure if William Buick could ride the Ascot Stakes again on ZIGATO, then he would not give the leaders so much rope and he would have won this comfortably. Had he been at odds of 11/2 or more, then he would have been an eachway wager for me as it was hard to see him not finishing in the places, but I am glad I didn’t wager on him (as, at 9/2, he was a win-only wager). He goes straight into the Notebook tho’ as he looks destined for better things.

Today, in the opening race, the Jersey Stakes, we have what could be the day’s best bet; CODEMASTER at 3/1 (writing this has meant we’ve missed 100/30). The 7-furlong trip is a tricky one, yet CODEMASTER broke the course record for the trip at Newmarket LTO, and Ascot should suit him down to the ground. I would make him the 7/4 fav for this, so 3/1 looks great value (wish I had taken 100/30).

The next race, The Windsor Forest for fillies over a mile, looks inviting as a betting medium, and looks set-up for MUSIC SHOW who was the best 3yo filly over a mile last season, beating the 1st & 2nd in this race last year when winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes over a mile at Newmarket last July. She has no G1 penalty for this and 9/1 looks a gift, especially as she is reunited with Richard Hughes who rode her when winning the Falmouth Stakes. The ground should provide no worries based on her 2nd to Goldikova at Deauville last August in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild on good-to-soft.

The rest of the card looks very tricky, especially the Royal Hunt Cup (handicap) over a mile.

Ascot 2:30, CODEMASTER, ½pt win @ 3/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 3:05, MUSIC SHOW, ½pt win @ 9/1
and ½pt each way at 9/1 (Bet365 & Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed, ¼ odds 1,2,3)
Total = 2pts staked

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