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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 14 June 2011
Day 1 of Royal Ascot & the 300th blog page
A milestone has been reached this being the 300th page of the blog, and it is only fitting that today is the 1st day of the Royal Ascot meeting. If you are visiting this blog for the first time looking for help and advice on finding a winner at Royal Ascot, what I would say is don’t try and find the winner in every race. Choose just 1 or 2 races and focus your attention on them. Only wager an amount that you are comfortable losing.
The day opens with the Queen Anne Stakes and a clash of the highest order between CANFORD CLIFFS and GOLDIKOVA. If I were a once-a-year punter then this is one of today’s races that I would have a wager on. Personally, I cannot split Canford Cliffs and Goldikova but one of them will win it today. If pushed to have a wager, it’d be CANFORD CLIFFS as I truly believe he is one of the best miler’s of all time, and maturity should have made him a better horse this season. Odds of 6/4 on CANFORD CLIFFS look fair.
The 5-furlong Kings Stand Stakes is probably the most wide open race of the day. Virtually every runner has questions to answer and, as I wrote yesterday, the race looks like going to a rank outsider. From a quick inspection, two catch my eye; ASTROPHYSICAL JET and GROUP THERAPY. Both of these horses look potentially better than their official ratings of 110 and 108 respectively. David Barrons, trainer of GROUP THERAPY, has not had a winner at Ascot in over 5 years, will this one break the mould? He was staying-on well LTO behind Sole Power and Ascot will suit him better than Haydock. And ASTROPHYSICAL JET looked potentially top-class when winning Group 3’s at the Curragh and Newbury at the end of last season. She must’ve needed the race LTO, but then she took a few races last season to come to hand. This race could be won by more than half the field, so no wager.
The St James Palace Stakes will go to FRANKEL, without a doubt, and it may be best to try and find the forecast for this race. The Japanese challenger Grand Prix Boss should not be underestimated.
The Coventry Stakes for 2yo’s over 6-furlongs looks ultra-competitive and this is the best quality field for this race I’ve seen in some years. The winner will be a decent horse. The market is a good guide as the winner hasn’t started at longer odds than 8/1 in the past 9 years, so the market leaders Power (5/1), Mezmaar (11/2), and Gatepost (8/1) need close inspection. But I also like the look of Commissar (14/1), Italo (16/1), and Roman Soldier (16/1). Again, this is a no wager race.
The Ascot Stakes is a handicap and should be dominated by the fav Junior who will try and make all the running as he did in this race last year. However, it is likely that Ermyn Lodge will dispute the lead too and that could unsettle the fav. As such, I reckon ZIGATO could be the one to be on. He looked impressive when winning over 2-mile at Ascot LTO and he looks like this extra half-mile wont upset him. Any give in the going will also be in his favour and this lightly raced 4yo is related to some top-class horses, so his current OR92 could be very lenient. Unfortunately, the odds of 9/2 are not great and I would prefer something over 5/1, but that is unlikely now.
I would not go near the last race on the card, the 27-runner Windsor Castle for 2yo’s, with a bargepole.
From my Notebook, at Thirsk in the 5:50 runs JARROW. Altho’ not a winner on turf (yet) he’s shown some cracking form, including when 2nd at Doncaster. Collect Art (in 3rd) has won 3 times since then, and JARROW is only 1lb up at OR77. This looks very lenient considering he raced well as a 3yo (when with Mark Johnston) with a 2nd off OR90 over 6f at Newmarket. The winner that day (Cockney Class) is now rated 10lb higher, the 3rd (Kanaf) is 8lb higher, whereas JARROW is now 13lb lower. Nicholls trained JARROW’s half-bro Moss Vale (OR109) to win group races, and today’s trip and going look favourable. Odds of 13/2 look value (Boylesports and Sportingodds).
Thirsk 5:50, JARROW, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked
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