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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday, 16 June 2011
Day 3 at Royal Ascot
A blank day yesterday for the blog, but CODEMASTER went close in the opener. I was right in my interpretation of the market, as the selection started the 7/4 fav, but he could not reel-in the winner Strong Suit. I would say that CODEMASTER needs a mile now but, even so, this was top-class form and should prove very reliable to follow.
The other selection MUSIC SHOW, was the only Group 1 winner in her race, and did not have a penalty for it, yet she was unable to capitalise. She was running well and held every chance when making her move about 2f-out but ran into trouble. When she saw daylight, the leaders had flown and her chance was gone. With a clear run, I’m sure she’d have beaten the fav Sajjhaa, who showed she’s not a miler and needs 10f; and also First City in 3rd who has never looked better than a Group 3 performer. Whether she would have caught the winner is debateable, but I’ll be on MUSIC SHOW again the next time she runs at a mile.
Those who follow me on twitter (@wayward_lad) will know I tweeted the following at 08:52 yesterday morning on the royal Hunt Cup: “reckon bias is mid-to-high, winner (IMO) should come from stall 21-30 and the shortlist is Julienas, Bronze Prince, and Dance And Dance.” I should have followed my own advice and wagered 6 combination Exactas, as Julienas won at 12/1 and Dance And Dance came 2nd at 7/1, the Exacta paying £128.30; but I never had a penny on!
I personally managed to recoup the day’s losses (and some) away from Royal Ascot at the ‘jumps’ meeting at Worcester, where I could not believe that Strong Soul (ridden by AP McCoy) was the 3/1 2nd-fav for the 3-mile maiden hurdle at 4:00pm. With 3 runs in 2011 (the latest on 8th May) on the point-to-point field, being pulled-up twice and a distant 6th (over 3-miles) on the latest start, it seemed improbable that he’d finish closer on his racecourse debut when the pace would almost certainly be quicker and his stamina would be severely tested. I place-laid him at 2.05 (tho’ could have laid at 1.95) before the off, then when he touched 1.60 in-running about a mile out I doubled my liability. Strong Soul came under pressure after the 3-last, and was eased to a walk soon after. You do not have to find “winners” to make a profit at racing. Sometimes finding a loser is a lot easier.
At Hamilton, Mark Johnston sent out the useful looking CITY OF ANGELS to win. This horse is a half-sister to I’m So Lucky who won the Wolferton Handicap for Mark Johnston off OR96 (I’m So Lucky is now a useful chaser for David Pipe). I would expect that there is a lot more to come from CITY OF ANGELS and she won’t be rated over OR75 based on this run.
Day 3 of Royal Ascot and it is another cracking day there. In the opener, I made a note of SILVERHEELS when he won at Windsor in early April and he looks full of potential, but then so do most of this field and Paul Cole (trainer of SILVERHEELS) his having a barren spell of late. Expect a good showing, but this horse may want further than 5-furlongs today.
The Ribblesdale at 3:05 looks to be between the two market leaders Rumh and Banimpire, and it may pay to have them in 2 straight Exacta’s. Of the two, I favour BANIMPIRE as she is proven at the trip, and comes here having won last Sunday looking immense. Odds of 100/30 look generous.
The Ascot Gold Cup looks a race for a wager. The fav, Fame And Glory, does not look like a natural 2½ mile horse. In fact, I’d say over the furthest trip he’s won at, 1m6f, I would favour the 2nd-fav Duncan to beat him. At this extreme trip, I don’t like Duncan either, and the going will not be fast enough for Holberg. This race looks like going to a rank outsider (like last year) and those that come into my frame are Kasbah Bliss, who will have going he likes today unlike last year; and Askar Tau who looked immense when winning the Sagaro Stakes over 2-mile at Ascot in April and has also won beyond 2-mile taking the 2m2f Doncaster Cup in 2009.
The Brittainia Stakes (handicap) looks ultra-competitive and I have to give this race a miss despite there being 3 from my Notebook running in it; Captain Bertie, Chain Lightning, and Belgian Bill. The latter (Belgian Bill) has the best of the draw (30 of 30), but I cannot nominate a wager in this race.
At Ripon, DOLPHIN ROCK goes for the 1m1f handicap at 4:00pm and tho’ he meets some competition in the shape of Charlie Cool, I think he has a great chance of winning today at odds of 9/4 (Vic Chandler) look fair.
Ascot 3:05, BANIMPIRE, ½pt win @ 100/30 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Ripon 4:00, DOLPHIN ROCK, 1pt win @ 9/4 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
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