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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 17 June 2011
Day 4 at Royal Ascot
A great performance from both selections on the blog yesterday with BANIMPIRE winning by a short-head (but she was clearly up on the line) and DOLPHIN ROCK going down by a neck in his race to finish 2nd. So, very nearly 2 wins from 2 selections (DOLPHIN ROCK traded at 1.40 in-running) but, overall, 0.67pts profit on the day. It was no disgrace for DOLPHIN ROCK, tho’ perhaps I should have paid more attention to the eventual winner Pleasant Day when assessing the race.
PLEASANT DAY (OR88) had run well when 2nd at Ripon over 10f on 6th May (with Dolphin Rock behind in 4th). He then ran well again at Epsom LTO, despite a change in tactics which didn’t suit. If you look back, PLEASANT DAY started his 3yo season off OR104 after coming 2nd (btn short-head) in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes in his final start as a 2yo, on soft going. He was never going to be competitive off that rating, tho’ he did run up to yesterday’s form off OR103 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot when btn only 7½ lengths. The “give” in the going clearly suited him, as did the hold-up ride and the trip of an extended mile, and if the same circumstances occur again he can be confidently followed, as he is probably an OR94-96 horse.
As for the Ascot Gold Cup, well I got that wrong and Fame And Glory won well in the end. He was undoubtedly helped by the soft going following 11mm of rain on the morning of the race which did not help the likes of Holberg, Duncan or Askar Tau. Quite why Blue Bajan was supplemented for the race at a cost of £25,000 is beyond me as the horse couldn’t win a hurdle race at a trip further than 2-miles (in fact, if he met Kasbah Bliss over this trip in a hurdle race, he’d have been receiving 23lb). I rated Fame And Glory at 117 in winning this which, while not the strongest of ratings even in a sub-standard Group 1 like the Ascot Gold Cup, should be enough to guarantee him winning next season if he’s still in the same form.
Lastly, I expected Belgian Bill to do the best of those from my Notebook in the Britannia and he did, coming in 4th at 10/1.
Today, the opening 2yo race is best watched on this going. Next up is the King Edward VII Stakes and this usually goes to a decent colt. The fav Nathaniel has been well-backed for the St Leger already and, if he’s up to winning that then he should win this, but I reckon he has no turn-of-foot and he’ll be caught close home. There are plenty of front-runners in this (Genius Beast, Dordogne) so this will be a race with stamina to the forefront. Even so, I really like the chance of previous blog winner GLEN’S DIAMOND. He did the business for the blog when winning at Chester LTO, and he has been given 7 weeks to muscle-up and comes here fresh. Unfortunately, regular jockey Paul Hanagan misses today with a sore neck, but his replacement is Jimmy Fortune who won the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes yesterday, and he’s an able deputy. GLEN’S DIAMOND is 8/1 (Bet365)).
I will be very surprised if the AP O’Brien filly TOGETHER is not in the 1st-3 today in the Coronation Stakes at 3:45, following running 2nd in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas. “AP” has brought a strong team (as always) and she will be primed to run well today. At 11/2 she looks a decent wager.
Every man and his dog has been talking about Green Destiny and the horse missed the Britannia yesterday but goes for the Wolferton today for which he’s the 2/1 fav. That is too short for me in a handicap. SPANISH DUKE will love this going and he is likely to be trainer John Dunlop’s only runner at Royal Ascot this week. Ignore his run LTO as he hated the going, and he was also meeting better horses on poor terms. At 10/1, he is a worthy opponent to the fav.
There is plenty of racing away from Ascot today, and I will continue looking for value – especially at this evenings racing. So please return later as there may be another selection posted in the comments section below.
Ascot 3:05, GLEN’S DIAMOND, ½pt eachway @ 8/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed, places 1,2,3 at 3rd odds)
Ascot 3:45, TOGETHER, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed, places 1,2,3 at 3rd odds)
Ascot 4:20, SPANISH DUKE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed, places 1,2,3 at ¼ odds)
Total = 3pts staked
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