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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 17 December 2010
Aztec Treasure wins in a canter!
Jonjo O’Neill and Towcester go together like bread and jam – and his chasers are the cherry on top! Yesterday, AZTEC TREASURE never looked in any danger, and simply cruised to victory taking-up the lead at the final fence, but he could have gone on to win the race at any time in the final half-mile. Do not be distracted by the winning distance, he could have won by 20-lengths. He was a very generous 5/2 at SP, but I advised taking the 3/1 that was available when I posted the blog at 10:36am. Remember, if you want to know when the blog goes online, follow me on twitter. I can be found at @wayward_lad. It costs you nothing for the service, and there are some very good exponents of the racing game to be found on twitter. Horseracing is made for twitter as information can be spread at lightning speed.
The other blog selection CHAPOTURGEON was more speculative, but he still ran a fair race. I thought he’d be capable of doing himself justice, but perhaps this 17f trip was too short for him. He was staying-on in the final half-mile and a return to 20-21f could see him in the winners enclosure. Royal Charm, who won the race on the line, looks like he needs 20f or more and on this performance he’s not an “Arkle” contender. The best “Arkle” performance we’ve seen this side of the Irish Sea so far has been from GHIZAO.
At Exeter, Silver Gypsy ran away with the opener and should not have been allowed to go off at 15/8 such was her dominance of this mares hurdle. It seems that AP McCoy went here solely to ride the 4yo mare SWAY to win the Mares Novice Chase at 9/2. She looks one to follow.
At Towcester, after the win by AZTEC TREASURE, I should have followed-up with Bobby Gee who’d beaten him LTO. Put up just 6lb for that win, and with the form confirmed by AZTEC TREASURE, he massacred a good field in the 2m6f h’cap chase. Richie McLernon was able to conjure a run out of RATE OF KNOTS in the same race to be 3rd and, given he is unlikely to be raised in the handicap for this run, that he’s 4lb below his last winning rating and 10lb off his highest rating he is one to note NTO.
Also, just heard that along with TWIST MAGIC, at Bangor GILSLAND collapsed after racing on Wednesday with a heart attack and passed away.
Antepost opportunities for the Cheltenham Festival (part two)
So far, the following antepost advices have been provided on the blog:-
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 for the Gold Cup (on 22/11 and again on 28/11)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
BURTON PORT, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 for the Champion Hurdle (on 27/11)
GHIZAO, 1pt eachway @ 12/1 for the Arkle (on 23/11)
GAUVAIN , ½pt eachway @ 25/1 for the QM Champion Chase (on 15/11)
So, there’s 10pts staked already, but perhaps the ½pt eachway on GAUVAIN was a bit too speculative given the revitalised performances of MASTER MINDED and the likelihood that the competition for 2nd and 3rd in the Champion Chase will be much fiercer now.
From Part One (see 14th December blog), I am not tempted by MENORAH at 4/1 nor – following this week’s run in Ireland - by HURRICANE FLY at 11/2 for the Champion Hurdle.
As I wrote on 15th December, POQUELIN is at the fore of the Ryanair market at the very generous odds of 6/1. I cannot see anything likely to be in the race that can beat him at Cheltenham over 2m5f on the likely Good-to-Soft going – but, as he’s unlikely to run again before the Festival, we’ll keep the money in the pocket for a bit longer yet.
Where else to explore? The RSA Chase and Neptune Hurdle markets are still wide open. The World Hurdle looks sown-up by BIG BUCKS who looks unbeatable. The only horse that “may” be capable of challenging him (that won’t go for the Champion Hurdle) is Zaynar, but he has to prove he’s up to the challenge. I reckon the only horse around that could wrest the title from BIG BUCKS is PEDDLERS CROSS, but he’s Champion Hurdle bound. We need to look for eachway value in the World Hurdle. That’s it for now on the antepost front and we will revisit this theatre in about a month’s time.
There is an 11:00am inspection at Ascot which is the only possible jump meeting today. Looking at the temperatures, I doubt racing will go ahead, and, even if it did, there is no selection today.
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