Early look at the Irish Derby

There is not much separating the 1st-3 home in the Derby and the winner is unlikely to come from outside these 3. I'm not sure I think the Bolger horse, Trading Leather, is up for this. Yes, in hindsight the Dante result looks stronger now than it did at the time, but what irks me is that the horse then went for the Irish Guineas and not the French Derby as was anticipated at the time of the York race. That suggests there is not the strength of support at home to warrant this one being the 5/1 3rd fav to win the Irish Derby.

Now, altho' I was on Ruler Of The World at Epsom, I'm not sure he'll stay a true-run 12-furlongs. The early pace of the Derby was a joke and while ROTW clearly has a devastating turn-of-foot, for me the jury is still out as to whether he's a 12-furlong horse or not. His half-bro' Duke Of Marmalade, only had 2 runs over 12-furlongs winning his 1st attempt which was in the King George. The horse he beat that day, Papal Bull, certainly stayed the 12-furlong trip but never won a Group 1 in 7 attempts and this was the closest he got. Duke Of Marmalade was a miler as a 3yo, running 2nd in the St James's Palace Stakes.

As such, I think the value lies with Libertarian (7/2) and Galileo Rock (8/1).

Libertarian, a half-bro to the Godolphin owned Prince Siegfried, reminds me of Prince Regent (that will make you look for the record books) who won the race in 1969 after being a fast-finishing 3rd to Blakeney in that years Derby.
Galileo Rock is a half-bro to Saddlers Rock, last seen finishing down the field in last weeks Ascot Gold Cup. The thought is that this horse may be best aimed at the St Leger in September, tho' I reckon if this race (Irish Derby) is truly run then he's the horse that will benefit the most. He looks certain to finish in the 1st-3.

At the odds, I am a layer of ROTW, and(just on the balance of the odds) I'll be having a small eachway wager on GALILEO ROCK @ 8/1.

Thanks for reading this blog,
from Wayward Lad

Royal Ascot 2013 look-back

Due to work constraints, my Royal Ascot wagers last week were restricted somewhat, and I was only able to advise wagers via the blog on the opening couple of days. I ended the 1st day down 1pt, but came oh so close to pulling-off a coup with my eachway selection of ALJAMAAHEER at 14/1 (SP 8/1) who finished 2^nd having led 100 yards out. This wasn’t a strong Group 1, as I thought the selection only matched his rating (114) when beaten by Farhh in the Lockinge. That means the winner, Declaration Of War, has a bit to find if he meets up with Farhh or Dawn Approach who won the St James’s Palace Stake later on the day.

The 2^nd-day of the meeting had fewer opportunities for a wager, but it gave us one of the best of the week with AL KAZEEM in the Prince Of Wales Stakes over 10-furlongs.  This was the 3^rd time I’ve had a wager this season on the horse and he’s rewarded me with 3 wins. I thought he’d be a 7/4 chance for this and advised taking the 5/2 in the morning. Unbelievably (almost certainly due to the fact that last season’s Derby and Guineas winner Camelot was in the race) the odds on AL KAZEEM lengthened and he had an SP of 11/4. That win gave me a 2.75pt profit for my 1pt win stake and, as he was my final advised wager of the week, ensured I finished the meeting in profit – albeit a slim 1.75pt profit.

Sure enough, AL KAZEEM won cleverly, by just a neck, having been 3-lengths behind the leader under 2-furlongs out. On the bare facts, it’s hard to see how you can rate this performance more than 117 (the Racing Post have given him another 7lbs and rated him 124) as Mukhadram in 2^nd was all-out and this was a career-best for him. The manner of his victory suggests AL KAZEEM has plenty in the locker and tho’ that can be dangerous to rely on, this year’s 10-12 furlong horses look weak. Being capable of 118-123 performances could be enough to secure him some decent prizes during the remaining months of this season. That said, he’ll need to find about 5-7lb of improvement if he’s to be in the frame of the Arc de Triomphe, and the Japanese trained ORFEVRE (who was just touched-off into 2^nd in the race last October) looks the antepost wager at this stage at 7/1 if any readers are looking long-term. It will take some judicious management by his trainer if AL KAZEEM can maintain his unbeaten run for the remainder of the season and mount a serious challenge in the Arc De Triomphe.

There were some tremendous performances at Royal Ascot but, for me, the performance of the week came on Saturday from LETHAL FORCE.  There is a tendency for ratings compilers to scoff at decent performances from long-odds runners who are clearly improving.  When LETHAL FORCE beat Strong Suit at Newbury last season at the odds of 25/1 he showed a tremendous level of ability to beat a horse capable of earning rating of 125+ and was only receiving 5lb. I rated that run at 123, whereas RPR gave him a rating of only 116. He was struck-into NTO so couldn’t repeat that form, and on his final appearance of the season he hated the heavy ground at Longchamps. For his seasonal debut, he ran a cracker despite probably needing the run at York when just failing to hold Society Rock. He was sure to come on for that run and a performance up to the level of last season’s win in the Hungerford Stakes would see him in the picture here. In hindsight, these things are easy to see but, in my book, he exceeded that form and ran to 125 on Saturday. We know the horse stays 7-furlongs and so a stiff 6-furlongs – such as the July Cup at Newmarket next month – will be a suitable target. What a tremendous purchase at just 8,500 Euros this horse was as a yearling.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Royal Ascot Day 2

We came pretty darn close to having the perfect start to the meeting with a 14/1 winner (at advised odds), but ALJAMAAHEER was nabbed close home after looking the most likely winner entering then final furlong. The selection finished 2nd and was returned at an SP of 8/1 – I did say his morning odds of 14/1 were generous – with his “place-only” SP odds on the exchanges being 2.93. Overall, a profit on the opening race of about ½pt via the place-only wager. 

Unfortunately, my other selection Dundonnell was denied a run at a crucial stage and had to check and never recovered, tho’ he probably wasn’t good enough. With a point lost on him, plus the loss of my each-way double, I've ended the day down 1pt.

The 2^nd-day of the meeting has a few opportunities.

2:30 Jersey Stakes

This is one of my favourite races, but this year’s renewal has 21-runners and looks wide open. Normally, I have a wager in this but, this year, I’m giving it a miss.

3:45 Prince Of Wales Stakes

Last season, I won with a fairly decent wager on The Fugue at Goodwood. This filly is top-class and possesses a stunning turn-of-foot. However, this being her seasonal debut, it is a lot to ask to see her winning this. The presence of last year’s Derby winner Camelot means that the favourite AL KAZEEM is generally available at 5/2 and (given his form this season) that looks generous.

We know the horse holds Camelot as he beat him fair’n’square LTO. As such, I am surprised the horse is trading at longer than 7/4. He has to be a wager, and I’m having 1pt win on him at 5/2.

With the final 3 races on the card not providing a betting opportunity for me today, AL KAZEEM is my only wager and hopefully he can take us into profit for the meeting.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Royal Ascot Day 1

There is no doubt about it, Royal Ascot is “the” meeting of the flat racing season. Super-competitive, with just about all the very best horses in training, both UK trained and from foreign fields.

I’ve been concentrating on the better quality races this year and there are a glut of top-class races at Royal Ascot with the opening 3 races of the meeting all being Group 1.

I’m not a sprint-race tipster so I’m leaving the King’s Stand Stakes to one side. With 19 runners, and just the minimum 5-furlong trip to cover, in my opinion it really is anyone’s race and one in which no horse can relax.

As such, the two races that I’m concentrating on are the opening Queen Anne Stakes over a straight mile run at 2:30, and the St James’s Palace Stakes also run over a mile at 3:45, but on the round course.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes

The hot favourite is the American 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Clearly a very classy horse, he looked unlucky not to be a lot closer to the winner when 2^nd in the Breeders’ Cup mile run at Santa Anita last November. Given a break, he possibly wasn’t 100% when 2^nd at Gulfstream in February, but looked a tremendous horse when winning the Dubai World Cup of 10-furlongs at Meydan on 30^th March. However, the form of that race hasn’t exactly made great reading since and he could have been flattered by the way the race panned-out. Bred from a mare by German stallion and top-class stayer Acatenango, my feeling is that this horse wants 10-furlong plus. His performance in the Breeders Cup (when 2^nd) may not have been what it seemed either as he was beaten by the specialist “miler” Wise Dan, and tho’ he had triple Group 1 winning Excelebration back in 4^th, that horse was over-the-top for the season. It is the proximity of Group 2 horse Obviously (in 3^rd) that tempers the form of that race for me, and I think the rating awarded of 123 by RPR that day to Animal Kingdom was a bit inflated.

The 2^nd-fav is Elusive Kate, and this filly was possibly the best of her sex over a mile last season but was unable to master the colts when up against them. I also think it is a huge task to come straight to Royal Ascot without a preparation run, so altho’ trainer John Gosden knows how to do a job he’ll have his work cut-out to win this.

There appears to be dearth of contenders for this race despite there being 13 runners. The OR116 rated Penitent was well beaten in the Lockinge (despite being race-fit) and his Epsom conqueror Gregorian seems best when faced with under 9 rivals. Trumpet Major is an interesting runner, but he’d probably prefer the going to be firmer than “good” to show his best form. He won’t be far away, whereas Trade Storm looks exposed and is Group 2 at best. The AP O’Brien horse Declaration Of War is on a recovery mission after flopping in the Lockinge, but I don’t think he’s up to this grade. Sovereign Debt – 2^nd in the Lockinge – is also possibly no better than Group 2 at best, tho’ he does love Ascot and the ground will be perfect for him. It’s the horse that was 3^rd that day, ALJAMAAHEER, who looks most likely to step-up to the plate. With only 8 starts to date, there is surely more improvement to from this colt who has looked like a mile would be his best trip since finishing 3^rd in the 7-furlong Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. While I think the race-fav should be Animal Kingdom, purely on his rating, in my opinion he’s more of a 9/4 chance than 4/5. Elusive Kate could go close if she’s fit enough and so I’d have her at about 6/1. There are 3 who can cause an upset: Sovereign Debt, Trumpet Major and ALJAMAAHEER and the latter looks a worthy eachway wager at 14/1 (Bet365 and BetVictor) as I think he should be more like 6/1. 

3:45 St James’s Palace Stakes

The Derby fav Dawn Approach attempts to redeem his season in this race having run a stinker at Epsom on 1^st June. If he can repeat the form of his win in the Two-Thousand Guineas then he will be unstoppable, but I expect the preliminaries at Royal Ascot will “spook” him just as much as they this at Epsom. While Dawn Approach is coming back to a mile as a non-stayer, the 2^nd-fav Magician is bred to win a Derby yet dropped back from winning the Dee Stakes over 10-furlongs at Chester (I do not know how many times I've stated that AP O’Brien sends his best – very best – 3yo’s to Chester’s May meeting and, despite the proof, people still scoff) to win the Irish Guineas. I don’t think the 3^rd-fav Toronado truly stays a mile at Group 1 level, and so I think the best of the rest will be the improving DUNDONNELL. I was very impressed with the attitude of this horse when winning LTO, and the form of that race is working out very well with subsequent winners in Baltic Knight and Well Acquainted.  Unexposed at a mile (his LTO win was over 7-furlongs) I’m expecting more to come from this horse who is exceptionally well-bred. Current odds of 20/1 (Bet365 and BetVictor) look very generous and I reckon he should be trading at 8/1 for this. Has to be an eachway wager.

I'm having a small ¼ pt eachway wager on each of these, plus a ½ pt place-only wager on the exchanges (total 2pts staked). I'm also having a ¼ pt eachway double on the pair.

For a detailed preview of the Kings Stand Stakes over 5-furlongs, I strongly suggest you visit sprinter-specialist blogger the "Laird" at  Sprinterstogo. 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Brilliant Derby result

I've not been posting blogs regularly recently, mainly due to the constraints of work. Even so, I'm still keeping me eye-in on the horseracing and when I have a wager I post it up on twitter @wayward_lad

Last week, I was lucky enough to win the Formbet competition with a prize of the Galaxy Tab2 and 6 months membership. Dave McAuley who runs Formbet provides a 1st-rate service and a "free" version of his ratings can be obtained when following the link (click-on Formbet).

I used the Formbet ratings on Friday when assessing the runners in the Group 1 "Oaks" at Epsom, and decided that the 2nd-top-rated on the Formbet ratings - TALENT - looked exceptional value. I wasn't sure she'd be up to winning the race, but I was fairly sure she'd be placed (she had, after all, won her only 3yo start which was the "Pretty Polly" Stakes over 10-furlongs at Newmarket) and so had a place-only wager at average odds of 6.20 on Betfair. Sure enough, she ran up to her rating and went on to win the race at odds of 20/1 from her stablemate (who was top-rated on Formbet).

Then, on Saturday, I used the Formbet ratings and also the opinion of my brother who writes the excellent Sprinterstogo blog to make a couple of selections. Sprinterstogo reviewed only the Epsom Dash over 5-furlongs and the nominated selection was DUKE OF FIRENZE who was 8/1 at the time of writing. DUKE OF FIRENZE was also top-rated by Formbet, and I named that horse as the 1st-leg of my "twitter" double. DUKE OF FIRENZE won at 5/1 - having been laid at 999.0 on Betfair "in-running"!

My 2nd-leg on Saturday was in the Derby - RULER OF THE WORLD. I have long been of the opinion that trainer AP O'Brien sends his prime "Derby" candidate to the Chester May meeting. Yes, he may have other good 3yo colts in his stable, but the one he considers his best Epsom Derby horse goes to Chester, and that's where RULER OF THE WORLD ran and won last month. As such, Duke of Marengo never really entered my calculations, and there was plenty of debate and opinion before the race that the short-priced fav Dawn Approach would be unlikely to stay this 12-furlong trip. For me, RULER OF THE WORLD should have been more like a 3/1 chance and so the 8/1 available in the morning was a real gift from the bookmakers. I also consulted the free email / blog on the Derby provided by Ben Aitken's excellent website Narrowing-The-Field which made RULER OF THE WORLD to most likely winner based on trends and dosage. Ben's site is well worth a regular visit and his own ratings more than pay their way. His occasional free bulletins are worth their weight in gold. Finally, Formbet also had RULER OF THE WORLD as their top-rated selection.

It was no contest really, and RULER OF THE WORLD won the Derby at an SP of 7/1 completing a tremendous day at the races for me. At SP, those 2 winners on Saturday produced a 47/1 winning double, and at the morning odds it was a 80/1 winning double.

Here's a photo of my Galaxy Tab2 provided by Formbet.