Due to work constraints,
my Royal Ascot wagers last week were restricted somewhat, and I was only able
to advise wagers via the blog on the opening couple of days. I ended the 1st
day down 1pt, but came oh so close to pulling-off a coup with my eachway
selection of ALJAMAAHEER at 14/1 (SP 8/1) who finished 2nd having
led 100 yards out. This wasn’t a strong Group 1, as I thought the selection
only matched his rating (114) when beaten by Farhh in the Lockinge. That means
the winner, Declaration Of War, has a bit to find if he meets up with Farhh or
Dawn Approach who won the St James’s Palace Stake later on the day.
The 2nd-day of
the meeting had fewer opportunities for a wager, but it gave us one of the best
of the week with AL KAZEEM in the Prince Of Wales Stakes over 10-furlongs. This was the 3rd time I’ve had a
wager this season on the horse and he’s rewarded me with 3 wins. I thought he’d
be a 7/4 chance for this and advised taking the 5/2 in the morning.
Unbelievably (almost certainly due to the fact that last season’s Derby and
Guineas winner Camelot was in the race) the odds on AL KAZEEM lengthened and he
had an SP of 11/4. That win gave me a 2.75pt profit for my 1pt win stake and,
as he was my final advised wager of the week, ensured I finished the meeting in
profit – albeit a slim 1.75pt profit.
Sure enough, AL KAZEEM won
cleverly, by just a neck, having been 3-lengths behind the leader under
2-furlongs out. On the bare facts, it’s hard to see how you can rate this
performance more than 117 (the Racing Post have given him another 7lbs and
rated him 124) as Mukhadram in 2nd was all-out and this was a career-best
for him. The manner of his victory suggests AL KAZEEM has plenty in the locker
and tho’ that can be dangerous to rely on, this year’s 10-12 furlong horses
look weak. Being capable of 118-123 performances could be enough to secure him
some decent prizes during the remaining months of this season. That said, he’ll
need to find about 5-7lb of improvement if he’s to be in the frame of the Arc
de Triomphe, and the Japanese trained ORFEVRE (who was just touched-off into 2nd
in the race last October) looks the antepost wager at this stage at 7/1 if any
readers are looking long-term. It will take some judicious management by his
trainer if AL KAZEEM can maintain his unbeaten run for the remainder of the
season and mount a serious challenge in the Arc De Triomphe.
There were some tremendous
performances at Royal Ascot but, for me, the performance of the week
came on Saturday from LETHAL FORCE.
There is a tendency for ratings compilers to scoff at decent
performances from long-odds runners who are clearly improving. When LETHAL FORCE beat Strong Suit at Newbury
last season at the odds of 25/1 he showed a tremendous level of ability to beat
a horse capable of earning rating of 125+ and was only receiving 5lb. I rated
that run at 123, whereas RPR gave him a rating of only 116. He was struck-into NTO
so couldn’t repeat that form, and on his final appearance of the season he
hated the heavy ground at Longchamps. For his seasonal debut, he ran a cracker
despite probably needing the run at York when just failing to hold Society
Rock. He was sure to come on for that run and a performance up to the level of
last season’s win in the Hungerford Stakes would see him in the picture here.
In hindsight, these things are easy to see but, in my book, he exceeded that
form and ran to 125 on Saturday. We know the horse stays 7-furlongs and so a
stiff 6-furlongs – such as the July Cup at Newmarket next month – will be a
suitable target. What a tremendous purchase at just 8,500 Euros this horse was
as a yearling.
Thanks for reading this
blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful
wager on the back of what you read here then please make a contribution as an
expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on
horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can
afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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