Yesterday’s blog pointed readers towards good winner with
GREYWELL BOY winning at an SP of 5/4 after being highlighted at the morning odds
of 6/4. My personal line in the sand is
not to advise wagers when the odds are under 9/4, so I’m taking no credit for
this win nor am I adjusting my profit for the season on the back of it.
Saturday brings us 3 jump meetings at Sandown, Ayr and
Chepstow.This period before the Cheltenham Festival can see some ordinary races presented to the public, but there are always winning opportunities.
At Sandown, the Class 3 handicap chase at 2:40 looks interesting.
The Paul Nicholls trained Merrion Square is familiar to readers of the blog as
we’ve had a couple of wagers on him this season. Unfortunately, he’s being
ridden by an amateur rider tomorrow, so I’m not confident about placing a wager
on him. One that I like in this race is DE LA BECH but trainer Phil Hobbs does
not do well with chasers at Sandown (3 wins from 38 runners).
I’ve not got any angles on the Imperial Cup Hurdle, it is
one of those races that passes me by as I’m too engrossed in sorting thru’ the
handicaps for next week’s Cheltenham Festival.
It is the final race on the Sandown card that always
catches my eye.
This Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f & 110 yards.
The ground probably isn’t soft enough for Aachen
who is a real mud-lover, and the same goes for last year’s winner Arbeo altho’ he does comes here 3lb
below the rating he won off last year. The 11yo Midnight Sail looks to be regressing, and would probably find the
ground too soft, and the same can be said for the 12yo Overclear.
Ice ‘N’ Easy
ran a stinker LTO, but that was probably the heavy ground which he hates. If
that is ignored, his January run at
Kempton was a cracker which he should’ve won but, even so, he still does not
look at good a prospect as Denali Highway.
DENALI HIGHWAY
is the horse that I really like in this race.
He’s won going RH at Leicester and Huntingdon, he’s best on soft ground,
and he’s won twice at 2m5f. I can excuse his first couple of runs this season
as they were over too long a trip, and he looked like he hated the driving rain
LTO; as such, he’s dropped a couple of pounds to OR126 and given the horse a
winning opportunity. At the start of the season I thought he could develop into
a 140+ chaser and if you consider he was only a length off beating No Planning
in November (and he’s now rated OR140) you can see the potential he has here.
Ballyallia Man
also ran in this race last year finishing 3rd off OR130, and now he’s
racing off OR122. I can excuse that run as it was on heavy ground, which he’s
never won on from 4 races, and he’ll appreciate the soft ground more (2 wins
from 3 races on soft). The issue is whether he’ll be able to run to his best
form when fresh as he’s usually needed a run. Flaming George
has only ever won races with 3 or 4 runners. Hit The Headlines
has never won a chase and looks held by the handicapper. The novice chaser Tempest
River found this trip too much in December, and tho’ you can ignore her run
LTO when she was outclassed, it’s not likely she’ll be winning this.
The ground at both Ayr and Chepstow is heavy, and I’m not
going to try and find a winner at either track.
Early odds on the race (Friday afternoon) suggest that
DENALI HIGHWAY will be about 7/1 and that makes him eachway value, as it is
hard to see him finishing outside of the 1st-3. The two who could give him most to do are Ice
‘N’ Easy and Ballyallia Man and for a bit of fun I’m going to combine them in 6
x exacta’s
Selection:
Sandown 5:00 DENALI HIGHWAY, £5 eachway & £5 win @
7/1 with Bet Victor (BOG)Total Staked = £15
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