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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 5 April 2014

Grand National at Aintree

What a race we have in store for us today. A full complement of 40 horses and riders will be chasing the biggest prize - a million pounds - in jump racing. But first, yesterday, and altho' there was no blog issued (internet problems) I did send out a couple of selections on twitter including HOLYWELL who won at 7/2 and was installed at 12/1 in the Gold Cup market for next March.

I took a good look at the Grand National earlier this week and narrowed the field down to just 5. They are:-TEAFORTHREE @ 12/1 (available generally)
DOUBLE SEVEN @ 14/1 (available generally)
TRIOLO D’ALENE @ 22/1 with Bet365 paying 5-places eachway
CHANCE DU ROY @ 33/1 (available generally)
VINTAGE STAR @ 66/1 (available generally)
To those 5 there is only one other that I would add:
ALVARADO @ 33/1 (available generally)

If you are placing bets then make sure you check the terms of the bookies. Try and avoid those paying only 4-places eachway (Coral and William Hill) as all the rest offer 5-places except Bet Victor - and they are offering 6-places eachway.

At 12/1 I think TEAFORTHREE is great value to be in the 1st-5 and has a favorites chance of winning. He will be in the front-rank throughout the race and should give his supporters a great run. At the odds, I'm going to pass-over DOUBLE SEVEN as now AP McCoy has been confirmed as his rider he does not look value at 14/1.  One who looks destined to run a cracking race is TRIOLO D'ALENE. His trainer Nicky Henderson sent 3 winners out at Aintree yesterday and has his horses in tip-top form. TRIOLO D'ALENE won the Topham Chase last year, and then won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and was well fancied to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The worry is that he's carrying a big weight of 11st 6lb so he could be found wanting in the final mile.
There are no weight problems for CHANCE DU ROY: he's only carrying 10st 6lb and has a good record over the National fences having won the Becher Chase last December, and he ran 2nd in the Topham Chase in April 2012. To be honest, I thought he'd be 16/1 for this race and at 33/1 he has to be on the list of eachway wagers. Also with a light-weight is VINTAGE STAR with just 10st 7lb. You have to ignore his last run at Cheltenham - he seems to hate that track - but, before that, he ran a cracker at Haydock in the Peter Marsh Chase. The ground today will be perfect for him and - judged on his close 2nd to Hey Big Spender last November - he has an outstanding chance. Odds of 66/1 are an insult to the horse and he should be trading at less than 20/1.
I've added ALVARADO into consideration as this horse has sneaked into the race with just 10st 2lb . He seems to have unlimited stamina and the further the better for him. He does race at the rear early on, so don't get despondent if you don't hear his name early in the race as he'll be staying-on like a train in the final mile.
Finally, I can't finish this blog without a mention for the horse my girlfriend has put her money on - THE PACKAGE. He hated his experience when he next ran in the race in 2010, but he has tremendous for in handicaps coming 4th in the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup and 3rd at Cheltenham last month with subsequent Aintree winners Holywell and Ma Filleule the only ones ahead of him.
My advised wagers on the race:
TEAFORTHREE - £5 eachway @ 12/1
CHANCE DU ROY - £5 eachway @ 33/1
VINTAGE STAR - £5 eachway @ 66/1
Total = £30 staked

Of the rest of the card, there is nothing much that looks a value wager except in the 3:25 which is the 3m1f handicap chase. I've long had a eye on WIESENTRAUM and he looks well handicapped off OR130 for this race and has the benefit of 1st-time blinkers. He should be trading a lot shorter than 20/1 (Skybet and Sportingodds) and looks a decent eachway wager.

Aintree 3:25 - WIESENTRAUM, £5 eachway @ 20/1

All the best to readers, and let's hope all the horses go home safe and well.
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Finally, if any of my Grand National selections win and you have a profitable day on the back of what you've read here, please return to the blog and make a donation from your winnings.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

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