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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 9 December 2015

No need to risk losses in lower class races

I'm still smarting from the "wins" being snatched away from me on Saturday afternoon.  I'd like to have found swift recompense elsewhere, but the racing this week has been on the ordinary side, and the Leicester meeting today does not offer any Class 3 (or better) chase races.

There are a couple from my alert list running: Cloudy Bob in the 2:35pm, and Chicoria in the 1:35pm.  I'm not sure about Cloudy Bob as his season started well with a 3rd on unsuitable ground, and then he ran as well as could be expected on his next run (despite it being unsuitable ground again) but, LTO, when he had everything in his favour, he ran poorly making mistakes when jumping his fences. It puts me in a quandary as he's been dropped another couple of pounds to OR117 which - on the best of his form of last season - makes him very well handicapped.  When he last won in November 2014, he ran off OR121 and I rated the performance at 129 and the handicapper raised his to OR128.  Then, when he ran 2nd at Kempton in February this year off OR122, I rated that performance at 125. So, he's clearly well-in running off OR117 if he's fit enough. It is also interesting that he's dropped to Class 4 today, as most of his chase runs have been in Class 2 and Class 3.  I've made a "policy" decision to not advise wagers in races lower than Class 3 and I'm sticking to that today - but there's no doubt that Cloudy Bob ticks a lot of boxes today.

Chicoria is a novice chaser who won his chasing debut 3-weeks ago.  That was his first run since April, and the worry for me is that he won his seasonal debut last season, but then his form tailed-off. He should run well today and if he progresses as expected then he will likely be a 140+ chaser at his peak sometime in season 2016-17.

The horseracing for Thursday is not much better than today, and it is unlikely that I will be recommending my next wager until Friday when racing returns top Cheltenham for a 2-day meeting.  I'm not happy scrabbling around for a reason to have a wager as, with lower class racing, the results become more unpredictable and risky.  I learnt my lesson yesterday when I placed a "private" wager on  Zero Visibility in the 1:10pm Class 5 handicap Chase at Fontwell.  I thought the horse held an outstanding chase and should have been odds-on in what was a very weak 5-runner race; and I was really happy when I took 3.10 (approximately 2/1) on the exchanges. Sure enough, Zero Visibility travelled well through the race, and was well clear coming to the final fence with the 2nd-fav having already pulled-up - then he hit the final fence and fell!  

As such, I'm content to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to come along, and the weekend should provide them.  Looking ahead, we are nearing the period in the racing calender when we should all start taking an interest, if we are considering the 2016 Cheltenham Festival, in horseracing results.  The period from Christmas Day to Valentines Day is when 98% of all Festival winners have (historically) had their final race prior to winning at the Cheltenham Festival. From Boxing Day onwards, pay full attention to the horses who are likely to be contending races at the Festival - and the period includes horses racing in Ireland.

With the racing tomorrow looking unlikely to provide a wagering opportunity, I may forego issuing a blog on Thursday and concentrate instead on looking at the handicaps on Saturday and attempt to put together a shortlist for those who are on the email list (to go on the email list requires a donation of £10 per month).  So far this season, I've done this twice - and my 3-horse shortlists have provided the winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Annacotty) and the Hennessy Gold Cup (Smad Place).

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